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Institution

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

FacilityPotsdam, Germany
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.


Papers
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity to demonstrate that both strong 100 kyr periodicity in the ice volume variations and the timing of glacial terminations during past 800 kyr can be successfully simulated as direct, strongly nonlinear responses of the climate-cryosphere system to orbital forcing alone, if the atmospheric CO2 concentration stays below its typical interglacial value.
Abstract: . The origin of the 100 kyr cyclicity, which dominates ice volume variations and other climate records over the past million years, remains debatable. Here, using a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that both strong 100 kyr periodicity in the ice volume variations and the timing of glacial terminations during past 800 kyr can be successfully simulated as direct, strongly nonlinear responses of the climate-cryosphere system to orbital forcing alone, if the atmospheric CO2 concentration stays below its typical interglacial value. The existence of long glacial cycles is primarily attributed to the North American ice sheet and requires the presence of a large continental area with exposed rocks. We show that the sharp, 100 kyr peak in the power spectrum of ice volume results from the long glacial cycles being synchronized with the Earth's orbital eccentricity. Although 100 kyr cyclicity can be simulated with a constant CO2 concentration, temporal variability in the CO2 concentration plays an important role in the amplification of the 100 kyr cycles.

181 citations

01 Apr 2015
Abstract: In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981–2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.

181 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators and recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia are discussed.
Abstract: Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

181 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An extended version of a forest gap model was applied to a managed forest district in northeastern Germany and compared with a baseline scenario of traditional management without any response to climate change, highlighting the important influence that management strategies have on forest growth.
Abstract: Numerous investigations have indicated that projected climate change will impact strongly on forest growth and composition. To adapt managed forests to changing environmental conditions it may be necessary to modify traditional forest management strategies. An extended version of a forest gap model was applied to a managed forest district in northeastern Germany. The model was initialized with forest inventory data and run using routines devised to simulate three management scenarios: (1) maximized timber production, (2) climatically well-adapted forest composition, and (3) maximized tree species diversity. The strategies were compared with a baseline scenario of traditional management without any response to climate change. The comparisons were based on simulated wood production and species composition after 110 years of development. The results underline the important influence that management strategies have on forest growth. Forest management may adopt a variety of strategies to respond to the expected changes in climate. Process-oriented forest gap models can aid in the assessment of these strategies.

180 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is a problem with the IPCC strategy, however, in that it uses words differently from the way lay readers of the assessment typically do, leading readers to under-estimate the probability of high-magnitude possible outcomes.
Abstract: Good assessment of environmental issues, such as climate change, requires effective communication of the degree of uncertainty associated with numerous possible outcomes. One strategy that accomplishes this, while responding to people's difficulty understanding numeric probability estimates, is the use of specific language to describe probability ranges. This is the strategy adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in their Third Assessment Report. There is a problem with this strategy, however, in that it uses words differently from the way lay readers of the assessment typically do. An experiment conducted with undergraduate science students confirms this. The IPCC strategy could result in miscommunication, leading readers to under-estimate the probability of high-magnitude possible outcomes.

180 citations


Authors

Showing all 1589 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
Carl Folke133360125990
Adam Drewnowski10648641107
Jürgen Kurths105103862179
Markus Reichstein10338653385
Stephen Polasky9935459148
Sandy P. Harrison9632934004
Owen B. Toon9442432237
Stephen Sitch9426252236
Yong Xu88139139268
Dieter Neher8542426225
Johan Rockström8523657842
Jonathan A. Foley8514470710
Robert J. Scholes8425337019
Christoph Müller8245727274
Robert J. Nicholls7951535729
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
2023101
2022107
2021479
2020486
2019332
2018355