Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

The global terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract: There is great uncertainty with regard to the future role of the terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle. The uncertainty arises from both an inadequate understanding of current pools and fluxes as well as the potential effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2 on natural ecosystems. Despite these limitations, a number of studies have estimated current and future patterns of terrestrial carbon storage. Future estimates focus on the effects of a climate change associated with a doubled atmospheric concentration of CO2. Available models for examining the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage and the potential role of forest management and landuse practices on carbon conservation and sequestration are discussed.

Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene

Abstract: To predict the future contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise, numerical models use reconstructions of past ice-sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum to tune model parameters 1 . Reconstructions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have assumed that it retreated progressively throughout the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years or so)2-4. Here we show, however, that over this period the grounding line of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which marks the point at which it is no longer in contact with the ground and becomes a floating ice shelf) retreated several hundred kilometres inland of today's grounding line, before isostatic rebound caused it to re-advance to its present position. Our evidence includes, first, radiocarbon dating of sediment cores recovered from beneath the ice streams of the Ross Sea sector, indicating widespread Holocene marine exposure; and second, ice-penetrating radar observations of englacial structure in the Weddell Sea sector, indicating ice-shelf grounding. We explore the implications of these findings with an ice-sheet model. Modelled re-advance of the grounding line in the Holocene requires ice-shelf grounding caused by isostatic rebound. Our findings overturn the assumption of progressive retreat of the grounding line during the Holocene in West Antarctica, and corroborate previous suggestions of ice-sheet re-advance 5 . Rebound-driven stabilizing processes were apparently able to halt and reverse climate-initiated ice loss. Whether these processes can reverse present-day ice loss 6 on millennial timescales will depend on bedrock topography and mantle viscosity-parameters that are difficult to measure and to incorporate into ice-sheet models.

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

Abstract: Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2 These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies Here we explicitly account for CO2–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2–SLCF coevolutions Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change

Global economic response to river floods

Abstract: Increasing Earth’s surface air temperature yields an intensification of its hydrological cycle1. As a consequence, the risk of river floods will increase regionally within the next two decades due to the atmospheric warming caused by past anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions2–4. The direct economic losses5,6 caused by these floods can yield regionally heterogeneous losses and gains by propagation within the global trade and supply network7. Here we show that, in the absence of large-scale structural adaptation, the total economic losses due to fluvial floods will increase in the next 20 years globally by 17% despite partial compensation through market adjustment within the global trade network. China will suffer the strongest direct losses, with an increase of 82%. The United States is mostly affected indirectly through its trade relations. By contrast to the United States, recent intensification of the trade relations with China leaves the European Union better prepared for the import of production losses in the future. Economic losses due to river floods are expected to increase globally in the next 20 years. Direct local losses and indirect losses propagated through a global supply network are derived.