Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

Analyzing the Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics of Four European Coniferous Forests Using a Biogeochemistry Model

Abstract: This paper provides the first steps toward a regional-scale analysis of carbon (C) budgets. We explore the ability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to estimate the daily and annual C dynamics of four European coniferous forests and shifts in these dynamics in response to changing environmental conditions. We estimate uncertainties in the model results that arise from incomplete knowledge of site management history (for example, successional stage of forest). These uncertainties are especially relevant in regional-scale simulations, because this type of information is difficult to obtain. Although the model predicted daily C and water fluxes reasonably well at all sites, it seemed to have a better predictive capacity for the photosynthesis-related processes than for respiration. Leaf area index (LAI) was modeled accurately at two sites but overestimated at two others (as a result of poor long-term climate drivers and uncertainties in model parameterization). The overestimation of LAI (and consequently gross photosynthetic production (GPP)), in combination with reasonable estimates of the daily net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of those forests, also illustrates the problem with modeled respiration. The model results suggest that all four European forests have been net sinks of C at the rate of 100 ‐300 gC/m 2 /y and that this C sequestration capacity would be 30%‐70% lower without increasing nitrogen (N) deposition and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations. The magnitude of the forest responses was dependent not only on the rate of changes in environmental factors, but also on sitespecific conditions such as climate and soil depth. We estimated that the modeled C exchange at the study sites was reduced by 50%‐100% when model simulations were performed for climax forests rather than regrowing forests. The estimates of water fluxes were less sensitive to different initializations of state variables or environmental change scenarios than C fluxes.

A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration

Abstract: The impact of climate change on migration has gained both academic and public interest in recent years. Here we employ a meta-analysis approach to synthesize the evidence from 30 country-level studies that estimate the effect of slow- and rapid-onset events on migration worldwide. Most studies find that environmental hazards affect migration, although with contextual variation. Migration is primarily internal or to low- and middle-income countries. The strongest relationship is found in studies with a large share of countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, particularly from Latin America and the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa, and in studies of middle-income and agriculturally dependent countries. Income and conflict moderate and partly explain the relationship between environmental change and migration. Combining our estimates for differential migration responses with the observed environmental change in these countries in recent decades illustrates how the meta-analytic results can provide useful insights for the identification of potential hotspots of environmental migration. Using a meta-analysis approach, the authors find robust evidence that environmental factors play a role in explaining migration patterns across countries and over time, but the size of the effects depend on the economic and sociopolitical context, and the environmental factors considered.