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Institution

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

FacilityPotsdam, Germany
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.


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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This analysis reveals that by 2050, MP can replace, depending on socio-economic development and MP production pathways, between 10-19% of conventional crop-based animal feed protein demand, which could cause a major structural change in the agro-food system.
Abstract: One of the main challenges for the 21st century is to balance the increasing demand for high-quality proteins while mitigating environmental impacts. In particular, cropland-based production of protein-rich animal feed for livestock rearing results in large-scale agricultural land-expansion, nitrogen pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we propose and analyze the long-term potential of alternative animal feed supply routes based on industrial production of microbial proteins (MP). Our analysis reveals that by 2050, MP can replace, depending on socio-economic development and MP production pathways, between 10-19% of conventional crop-based animal feed protein demand. As a result, global cropland area, global nitrogen losses from croplands and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions can be decreased by 6% (0-13%), 8% (-3-8%), and 7% (-6-9%), respectively. Interestingly, the technology to industrially produce MP at competitive costs is directly accessible for implementation and has the potential to cause a major structural change in the agro-food system.

106 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a technique for studying seasonal and interannual variation in pyrogenic carbon emissions from Africa using a modelling approach that scales burned area estimates from L3JRC, a map recently generated from remote sensing of burn scars instead of active fires.
Abstract: . We developed a technique for studying seasonal and interannual variation in pyrogenic carbon emissions from Africa using a modelling approach that scales burned area estimates from L3JRC, a map recently generated from remote sensing of burn scars instead of active fires. Carbon fluxes were calculated by the novel fire model SPITFIRE embedded within the dynamic vegetation model framework LPJ-GUESS, using daily climate input. For the time period from 2001 to 2005 an average area of 195.5±24×104 km2 was burned annually, releasing an average of 723±70 Tg C to the atmosphere; these estimates for the biomass burned are within the range of previously published estimates. Despite the fact that the majority of wildfires are ignited by humans, strong relationships between climatic conditions (particularly precipitation), net primary productivity and overall biomass burnt emerged. Our investigation of the relationships between burnt area and carbon emissions and their potential drivers available litter and precipitation revealed uni-modal responses to annual precipitation, with a maximum around 1000 mm for burned area and emissions, or 1200 mm for litter availability. Similar response patterns identified in savannahs worldwide point to precipitation as a chief determinant for short-term variation in fire regime. A considerable variability that cannot be explained by fire-precipitation relationships alone indicates the existence of additional factors that must be taken into account.

106 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, changes in the vertical thermal structure associated with a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated using the coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α.
Abstract: Using the coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-3α, changes in the vertical thermal structure associated with a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated. When North Atlantic Deep Water formation is inhibited by anomalous freshwater forcing, intermediate depth ventilation can remain active and cool the subsurface water masses (i.e., the “cold case”). However, if intermediate ventilation is completely suppressed, relatively warm water coming from the south penetrates to a high northern latitude beneath the halocline and induces a strong vertical temperature inversion between the surface and intermediate depth (i.e., the “warm case”). Both types of temperature anomalies emerge within the first decade after the beginning of the freshwater perturbation. The sign of subsurface temperature anomaly has a strong implication for the recovery of the AMOC once the anomalous freshwater forcing is removed. While the AMOC recovers from the cold case...

106 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is concluded that temporal dynamics of model parameter sensitivity can be a powerful tool for hydrological model analysis, especially to identify parameter interaction as well as the dominantHydrological response modes.
Abstract: [1] The quest for improved hydrological models is one of the big challenges in hydrology. When discrepancies are observed between simulated and measured discharge, it is essential to identify which algorithms may be responsible for poor model behavior. Particularly in complex hydrological models, different process representations may dominate at different moments and interact with each other, thus highly complicating this task. This paper investigates the analysis of the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity as a way to disentangle the simulation of a hydrological model and identify dominant parameterizations. Three existing methods (the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's method) are compared by applying them to a TOPMODEL implementation in a small mountainous catchment in the tropics. For the major part of the simulation period, the three methods give comparable results, while the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test is much more computationally efficient. This method is also applied to the complex hydrological model WaSiM-ETH implemented in the Weisseritz catchment, Germany. A qualitative model validation was performed on the basis of the identification of relevant model components. The validation revealed that the saturation deficit parameterization of WaSiM-ETH is highly susceptible to parameter interaction and lack of identifiability. We conclude that temporal dynamics of model parameter sensitivity can be a powerful tool for hydrological model analysis, especially to identify parameter interaction as well as the dominant hydrological response modes. Finally, an open source implementation of the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test is provided.

106 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a methodology to derive and analyse scenarios, which allow to assess the influences of both climate and land use changes in a region, and demonstrate the chances and problems in such types of studies.
Abstract: Studies of Global Change impacts on the regional water cycle induced by a changing climate or by land use changes belong to the urgent issues of today's hydrologic research. Since the most important sources and drivers of Global Change are located at the regional scale, a stronger emphasis is needed at this scale, where political and technical measures can be taken in order to avoid critical developments for the environment and society. With respect to climate changes, studies indicate considerable regional vulnerabilities against changes of both temperature and precipitation. Land use or land cover changes, on the other hand, represent another anthropogenic ‘system disturbance’ which directly or indirectly influences many hydrologic processes. The present study outlines a methodology to derive and analyse scenarios, which allow to assess the influences of both climate and land use changes in a region. The results of a high resolution modelling approach demonstrate the chances and problems in such types of studies. The climate change impact studies performed in the German state of Brandenburg and in the Stepenitz river basin show that some of the water balance components may undergo a considerable change. Due to their high evapotranspiration potential, wetlands and open water bodies have turned out to be the most sensitive areas. The results of the land use change impact studies performed in two mesoscale river basins demonstrate that moderate land use changes result in only small changes of various water balance components. For the effects of land use changes climatic characteristics in a region seem to play a crucial role.

106 citations


Authors

Showing all 1589 results

NameH-indexPapersCitations
Carl Folke133360125990
Adam Drewnowski10648641107
Jürgen Kurths105103862179
Markus Reichstein10338653385
Stephen Polasky9935459148
Sandy P. Harrison9632934004
Owen B. Toon9442432237
Stephen Sitch9426252236
Yong Xu88139139268
Dieter Neher8542426225
Johan Rockström8523657842
Jonathan A. Foley8514470710
Robert J. Scholes8425337019
Christoph Müller8245727274
Robert J. Nicholls7951535729
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Performance
Metrics
No. of papers from the Institution in previous years
YearPapers
2023101
2022107
2021479
2020486
2019332
2018355