Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models

Abstract: We propose a new perspective on the hierarchy of climate models which goes beyond the ''classical'' climate modeling pyramid that is restricted mainly to atmospheric processes, Most notably, we introduce a new indicator, called ''integration'', which characterizes the number of interacting components of the climate system being explicitly described in a model. The location of several model types, from conceptual to comprehensive, is presented in a new spectrum of climate system models. In particular. the location of the Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) in this spectrum is discussed in some detail and examples are given, which indicate that there is currently a broad range of EMICs in use. In some EMICs, the number of processes and/or the detail of description is reduced for the sake of simulating the feedbacks between as many components of the climate system as feasible. Others, with a lesser degree of interaction, or ''integration'', are used for long-term ensemble simulations to study specific aspects of climate variability. EMICs appear to be closer to comprehensive coupled models of atmospheric and oceanic circulation (CGCMs) than to ''conceptual'' or ''box'' models. We advocate that EMICs be considered as complementary to CGCMs and conceptual models, because we believe that there is an advantage of having a spectrum of climate system models which are designed to tackle specific aspects of climate and which together provide the proper tool for climate system modeling.

Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal

Abstract: There are discernible differences in climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. The extent of countries' near-term mitigation ambition will determine the success of the Paris Agreement's temperature goal.

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Abstract: The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall—with a particularly pronounced decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa. The region could also experience as much as one meter of sea-level rise by the end of this century under a 4 °C warming scenario. Sub-Saharan Africa’s already high rates of undernutrition and infectious disease can be expected to increase compared to a scenario without climate change. Particularly vulnerable to these climatic changes are the rainfed agricultural systems on which the livelihoods of a large proportion of the region’s population currently depend. As agricultural livelihoods become more precarious, the rate of rural–urban migration may be expected to grow, adding to the already significant urbanization trend in the region. The movement of people into informal settlements may expose them to a variety of risks different but no less serious than those faced in their place of origin, including outbreaks of infectious disease, flash flooding and food price increases. Impacts across sectors are likely to amplify the overall effect but remain little understood.

A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of North European tree species under present and future climates

Abstract: A bioclimatic model based on physiological constraints to plant growth and regeneration is used here in an empirical way to describe the present natural distributions of northern Europe's major trees. Bioclimatic variables were computed from monthly means of temperature, precipitation and sunshine (%) interpolated to a 10' grid taking into account elevation. Minimum values of mean coldest-month temperature (T c ) and 'effective' growing degree days (GDD*) were fitted to species' range limits. GDD* is total annual growing degree days (GDD) minus GDD to budburst (GDD°). Each species was assigned to one of the chilling-response categories identified by Murray, Cannell & Smith (1989) to calculate GDD°. Maximum T c values were fitted to continental species' mild-winter limits and other deciduous species' warm-winter limits. Minimum values of relative growing-season moisture availability (α*) were estimated from silvics. Growth indices were calculated based on potential net assimilation (a quadratic in daily temperature) and α*. Growth can be rapid near a range limit, e.g. Picea abies (L.) Karsten in southern Sweden. Climate changes expected for CO 2 doubling were projected on to the grid. Simulated distribution changes reflected interspecific differences in response to changing seasonality. Chilling responses proved important, e.g. the predicted range limit of Fagus sylvatica L. contracts in the west while expanding northwards as winters warm more than summers. Transient responses to climate change can be modelled using the same information provided that fundamental and realized niche limitations are distinguished-a caveat that underlines the dearth of experimental information on the climatic requirements for growth, and especially regeneration, of many important trees.