Institution
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Facility•Potsdam, Germany•
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6.
Abstract: . We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of
anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within
CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species
and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent
transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using
automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions
source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of
end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal
for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on
the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with
end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘ C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2
scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘ C over pre-industrial
levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences
between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature
outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6.
A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific
community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
455 citations
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TL;DR: A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its perfor- mance for present climate conditions are presented in this article, which consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vege- tation cover, and global carbon cycle.
Abstract: A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its perfor- mance for present climate conditions are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vege- tation cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules in- teract through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has a coarse spatial resolution, nevertheless capturing the major features of the Earth's geography. The model describes temporal variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ flux adjustments and has a fast turnaround time, it can be used to study climates significantly diAerent from the present one and to perform long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The comparison of the model results with present climate data show that the model successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative balance, tempera- ture, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere.
452 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a new measure System LCOE as the sum of generation and integration costs per unit of variable renewable energy generation (VRE) for evaluating variable renewables like wind and solar power.
Abstract: Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) are a common metric for comparing power generating technologies. However, there is qualified criticism particularly towards evaluating variable renewables like wind and solar power based on LCOE because it ignores integration costs that occur at the system level. In this paper we propose a new measure System LCOE as the sum of generation and integration costs per unit of VRE. For this purpose we develop a conclusive definition of integration costs. Furthermore we decompose integration costs into different cost components and draw conclusions for integration options like transmission grids and energy storage. System LCOE are quantified from a power system model and a literature review. We find that at moderate wind shares (~20%) integration costs can be in the same range as generation costs of wind power and conventional plants. Integration costs further increase with growing wind shares. We conclude that integration costs can become an economic barrier to deploying VRE at high shares. This implies that an economic evaluation of VRE must not neglect integration costs. A pure LCOE comparison would significantly underestimate the costs of VRE at high shares. System LCOE give a framework of how to consistently account for integration costs and thus guide policy makers and system planers in designing a cost-efficient power system.
450 citations
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Vienna University of Technology1, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute2, University of Padua3, Masaryk University4, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic5, Polytechnic University of Turin6, University of Bath7, Energy Institute8, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research9, Polish Academy of Sciences10, University of Barcelona11, University of Liverpool12, University of Queensland13, Imperial College London14, Technical University of Madrid15, University of Potsdam16, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ17, ETH Zurich18, University of Bologna19, University of Ulm20, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava21
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reviewed the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches: data-based detection of changes in observed flood events and modelled scenarios of future floods.
Abstract: There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network.
450 citations
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TL;DR: Recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management.
450 citations
Authors
Showing all 1589 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Carl Folke | 133 | 360 | 125990 |
Adam Drewnowski | 106 | 486 | 41107 |
Jürgen Kurths | 105 | 1038 | 62179 |
Markus Reichstein | 103 | 386 | 53385 |
Stephen Polasky | 99 | 354 | 59148 |
Sandy P. Harrison | 96 | 329 | 34004 |
Owen B. Toon | 94 | 424 | 32237 |
Stephen Sitch | 94 | 262 | 52236 |
Yong Xu | 88 | 1391 | 39268 |
Dieter Neher | 85 | 424 | 26225 |
Johan Rockström | 85 | 236 | 57842 |
Jonathan A. Foley | 85 | 144 | 70710 |
Robert J. Scholes | 84 | 253 | 37019 |
Christoph Müller | 82 | 457 | 27274 |
Robert J. Nicholls | 79 | 515 | 35729 |