Institution
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Facility•Potsdam, Germany•
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: The watershed model SWIM as discussed by the authors integrates hydrology, vegetation, erosion and nitrogen dynamics at the watershed scale, which can be parametrized using regionally available information using GIS-based tools.
446 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used integrated assessment (IA) focus groups, in which groups of randomly selected individuals in Switzerland looked at models of possible consequences of climate change and questioned specialists as to their accuracy and meaning, revealed a rich assembly of reactions.
Abstract: Various studies of public opinion regarding the causes and consequences of climate change reveal both a deep reservoir of concern, yet also a muddle over causes, consequences and appropriate policy measures for mitigation. The technique adopted here, namely integrated assessment (IA) focus groups, in which groups of randomly selected individuals in Switzerland looked at models of possible consequences of climate change and questioned specialists as to their accuracy and meaning, revealed a rich assembly of reactions. Respondents were alarmed about the consequences of high-energy futures, and molli"ed by images of low-energy futures. Yet they also erected a series of psychological barriers to justify why they should not act either individually or through collective institutions to mitigate climate change. From the viewpoint of changing their lifestyles of material comfort and high-energy dependence, they regarded the consequences of possible behavioural shift arising from the need to meet mitigation measures as more daunting. To overcome the dissonance created in their minds they created a number of socio-psychological denial mechanisms. Such mechanisms heightened the costs of shifting away from comfortable lifestyles, set blame on the inaction of others, including governments, and emphasised doubts regarding the immediacy of personal action when the e!ects of climate change seemed uncertain and far away. These "ndings suggest that more attention needs to be given to the social and psychological motivations as to why individuals erect barriers to their personal commitment to climate change mitigation, even when professing anxiety over climate futures. Prolonged and progressive packages of information tailored to cultural models or organised belief patterns, coupled to greater community based policy incentives may help to widen the basis of personal and moral responsibility. 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
444 citations
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research1, University of Melbourne2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis3, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation4, ETH Zurich5, Earth System Research Laboratory6, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne7, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration8, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology9, Joint Global Change Research Institute10, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency11, Utrecht University12, Georgia Institute of Technology13
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios, using the reduced-complexity climate-carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0, and extended historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP trajectory projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution.
Abstract: . Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The
integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for
the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents
a different future socio-economic projection and political environment.
Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios
– using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We
extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP
concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range
from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5)
emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration
extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil
fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the
fraction of non- CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the
lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau
at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario
projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations
beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total
radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse
gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by
the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation,
we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo
Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs
(SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced
and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two
pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the
effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally
resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the
March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern
latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged
of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound
( ∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the
comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas
concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies'
projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a
“hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in
this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term
climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of
futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to –
ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to
approximately 1.5 ∘ C warming on the other.
444 citations
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University of London1, University of Queensland2, Monash University3, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research4, Queensland University of Technology5, Anhui Medical University6, Shanghai Jiao Tong University7, University of São Paulo8, University of Ottawa9, University of Los Andes10, Fudan University11, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic12, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague13, Oulu University Hospital14, University of Oulu15, Dublin Institute of Technology16, Brunel University London17, Nagasaki University18, University of Tsukuba19, Kyoto University20, Seoul National University21, Spanish National Research Council22, University of Valencia23, Umeå University24, Lund University25, University of Basel26, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute27, National Taiwan University28, Harvard University29, Yale University30, Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University31, Duy Tan University32, Public Health England33
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature, however, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited.
436 citations
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TL;DR: A precisely dated subannual climate record for the past 2000 years from Yok Balum Cave, Belize is presented and it is proposed that anomalously high rainfall favored unprecedented population expansion and the proliferation of political centers between 440 and 660 C.E.
Abstract: The role of climate change in the development and demise of Classic Maya civilization (300 to 1000 C.E.) remains controversial because of the absence of well-dated climate and archaeological sequences. We present a precisely dated subannual climate record for the past 2000 years from Yok Balum Cave, Belize. From comparison of this record with historical events compiled from well-dated stone monuments, we propose that anomalously high rainfall favored unprecedented population expansion and the proliferation of political centers between 440 and 660 C.E. This was followed by a drying trend between 660 and 1000 C.E. that triggered the balkanization of polities, increased warfare, and the asynchronous disintegration of polities, followed by population collapse in the context of an extended drought between 1020 and 1100 C.E.
435 citations
Authors
Showing all 1589 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Carl Folke | 133 | 360 | 125990 |
Adam Drewnowski | 106 | 486 | 41107 |
Jürgen Kurths | 105 | 1038 | 62179 |
Markus Reichstein | 103 | 386 | 53385 |
Stephen Polasky | 99 | 354 | 59148 |
Sandy P. Harrison | 96 | 329 | 34004 |
Owen B. Toon | 94 | 424 | 32237 |
Stephen Sitch | 94 | 262 | 52236 |
Yong Xu | 88 | 1391 | 39268 |
Dieter Neher | 85 | 424 | 26225 |
Johan Rockström | 85 | 236 | 57842 |
Jonathan A. Foley | 85 | 144 | 70710 |
Robert J. Scholes | 84 | 253 | 37019 |
Christoph Müller | 82 | 457 | 27274 |
Robert J. Nicholls | 79 | 515 | 35729 |