Institution
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Facility•Potsdam, Germany•
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: Economists not only failed to anticipate the financial crisis; they may have contributed to it with risk and derivatives models that, through spurious precision and untested theoretical assumptions, encouraged policy makers and market participants to see more stability and risk sharing than was actually present.
Abstract: Economists not only failed to anticipate the financial crisis; they may have contributed to it—with risk and derivatives models that, through spurious precision and untested theoretical assumptions, encouraged policy makers and market participants to see more stability and risk sharing than was actually present. Moreover, once the crisis occurred, it was met with incomprehension by most economists because of models that, on the one hand, downplay the possibility that economic actors may exhibit highly interactive behavior; and, on the other, assume that any homogeneity will involve economic actors sharing the economist’s own putatively correct model of the economy, so that error can stem only from an exogenous shock. The financial crisis presents both an ethical and an intellectual challenge to economics, and an opportunity to reform its study by grounding it more solidly in reality.
374 citations
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TL;DR: This is the first, to the authors' knowledge, estimate of global sea-level (GSL) change over the last ∼3,000 years that is based upon statistical synthesis of a global database of regional sea- level reconstructions, and indicates that, without global warming, GSL in the 20th century very likely would have risen by between −3 cm and +7 cm, rather than the ∼14 cm observed.
Abstract: We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.
372 citations
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University of Essex1, University of Leeds2, Anglia Ruskin University3, University of East Anglia4, Iowa State University5, University of Oxford6, University of Sussex7, University of York8, Newbury College9, University of Nottingham10, Kansas State University11, Ohio State University12, Washington State University13, Stockholm Resilience Centre14, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research15, University of Aberdeen16, International Livestock Research Institute17, Lincoln University (New Zealand)18
TL;DR: In this article, sustainable intensification of agricultural systems offers synergistic opportunities for the co-production of agricultural and natural capital outcomes, but system redesign is essential to deliver optimum outcomes as ecological and economic conditions change.
Abstract: The sustainable intensification of agricultural systems offers synergistic opportunities for the co-production of agricultural and natural capital outcomes. Efficiency and substitution are steps towards sustainable intensification, but system redesign is essential to deliver optimum outcomes as ecological and economic conditions change. We show global progress towards sustainable intensification by farms and hectares, using seven sustainable intensification sub-types: integrated pest management, conservation agriculture, integrated crop and biodiversity, pasture and forage, trees, irrigation management and small or patch systems. From 47 sustainable intensification initiatives at scale (each >104 farms or hectares), we estimate 163 million farms (29% of all worldwide) have crossed a redesign threshold, practising forms of sustainable intensification on 453 Mha of agricultural land (9% of worldwide total). Key challenges include investment to integrate more forms of sustainable intensification in farming systems, creating agricultural knowledge economies and establishing policy measures to scale sustainable intensification further. We conclude that sustainable intensification may be approaching a tipping point where it could be transformative.
370 citations
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TL;DR: It is found in numerical simulations of artificially generated power grids that tree-like connection schemes--so-called dead ends and dead trees--strongly diminish stability, which may indicate a topological design principle for future power grids: avoid dead ends.
Abstract: The cheapest and thus widespread way to add new generators to a high-voltage power grid is by a simple tree-like connection scheme. However, it is not entirely clear how such locally cost-minimizing connection schemes affect overall system performance, in particular the stability against blackouts. Here we investigate how local patterns in the network topology influence a power grid's ability to withstand blackout-prone large perturbations. Employing basin stability, a nonlinear concept, we find in numerical simulations of artificially generated power grids that tree-like connection schemes--so-called dead ends and dead trees--strongly diminish stability. A case study of the Northern European power system confirms this result and demonstrates that the inverse is also true: repairing dead ends by addition of a few transmission lines substantially enhances stability. This may indicate a topological design principle for future power grids: avoid dead ends.
368 citations
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TL;DR: The model results indicate strong synergistic effects of changes in vegetation cover, ocean temperature, and sea ice at boreal latitudes, but in the subtropics, the atmosphere-vegetation feedback is most important.
Abstract: Simulations with a synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model show that changes in vegetation cover during the mid-Holocene, some 6000 years ago, modify and amplify the climate system response to an enhanced seasonal cycle of solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere both directly (primarily through the changes in surface albedo) and indirectly (through changes in oceanic temperature, sea-ice cover, and oceanic circulation). The model results indicate strong synergistic effects of changes in vegetation cover, ocean temperature, and sea ice at boreal latitudes, but in the subtropics, the atmosphere-vegetation feedback is most important. Moreover, a reduction of the thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean leads to a warming of the Southern Hemisphere.
368 citations
Authors
Showing all 1589 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
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Carl Folke | 133 | 360 | 125990 |
Adam Drewnowski | 106 | 486 | 41107 |
Jürgen Kurths | 105 | 1038 | 62179 |
Markus Reichstein | 103 | 386 | 53385 |
Stephen Polasky | 99 | 354 | 59148 |
Sandy P. Harrison | 96 | 329 | 34004 |
Owen B. Toon | 94 | 424 | 32237 |
Stephen Sitch | 94 | 262 | 52236 |
Yong Xu | 88 | 1391 | 39268 |
Dieter Neher | 85 | 424 | 26225 |
Johan Rockström | 85 | 236 | 57842 |
Jonathan A. Foley | 85 | 144 | 70710 |
Robert J. Scholes | 84 | 253 | 37019 |
Christoph Müller | 82 | 457 | 27274 |
Robert J. Nicholls | 79 | 515 | 35729 |