Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

How inequitable is the global distribution of responsibility, capability, and vulnerability to climate change: A comprehensive indicator-based assessment

Abstract: While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries’ vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries’ responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries’ vulnerability to climate change.

Spatial Variation and Trends in PDSI and SPI Indices and Their Relation to Streamflow in 10 Large Regions of China

Abstract: Time series of the average annual Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) were calculated for 483 meteorological stations in China using monthly data from 1961 to 2005. The time series were analyzed for 10 large regions covering the territory of China and represented by seven river basins and three areas in the southeast, southwest, and northwest. Results show that the frequencies of both dry and wet years for the whole period are lower for southern basins than for the northern ones when estimated by PDSI but very similar for all basins when calculated by SPI. The frequencies of dry and wet years calculated for 5- and 15-yr subperiods by both indices show the upward dry trends for three northeastern basins, Songhuajiang, Liaohe, and Haihe; a downward dry trend for the northwest region; a downward wet trend for the Yellow River basin; and an upward wet trend for the northwest region. Trend detection using PDSI indicates statistically significant negative trends for many stations in the northeastern basins (Songhuajiang, Liaohe, Haihe, and Yellow) and in the middle part of the Yangtze, whereas statistically significant positive trends were found in the mountainous part of the northwest region and for some stations in the upper and lower Yangtze. A moderately high and statistically significant correlation between the percentage of runoff anomaly (PRA) and the annual average PDSI and SPI was found for six large rivers. The results confirm that PDSI and SPI indices can be used to describe the tendency of dryness and wetness severity and for comparison in climate impact assessment.

Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

Abstract: . Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

Polynya dynamics: A review of observations and modeling

Abstract: [1] Polynyas are nonlinear-shaped openings within the ice cover, ranging in size from 10 to 105 km2. Polynyas play an important climatic role. First, winter polynyas tend to warm the atmosphere, thus affecting atmospheric mesoscale motions. Second, ocean surface cooling and brine rejection during sea ice growth in polynyas lead to vertical mixing and convection, contributing to the transformation of intermediate and deep waters in the global ocean and the maintenance of the oceanic overturning circulation. Since 1990, there has been an upsurge in polynya observations and theoretical models for polynya formation and their impact on the biogeochemistry of the polar seas. This article reviews polynya research carried out in the last 2 decades, focusing on presenting a state-of-the-art picture of the physical interactions between polynyas and the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system. Observational and modeling studies, the surface heat budget, and water mass transformation within these features are addressed.

Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Abstract: Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2 ]( C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff. We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the threeway interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two-way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor’s effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor’s effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two-way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes.