Institution
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Facility•Potsdam, Germany•
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
More filters
••
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and found that in coastal areas with a land surface elevation of a few metres or more, groundwater availability is more strongly impacted by changes in groundwater recharge than sea-level rise.
Abstract: Today, groundwater is the source of about one third of global water withdrawals and provides drinking water for a large portion of the global population. In many regions it is subject to stress with respect to both quantity and quality. Hence, it is of utmost importance to improve our knowledge about the impacts of climate change on groundwater. Climate change will affect groundwater recharge, i.e. long-term average renewable groundwater resources, via increases in mean temperature, precipitation variability and sea level, as well as via changes in mean precipitation (increasing in some areas and decreasing in others). Over many areas groundwater recharge is projected to increase in the warming world (though less than river runoff), but many semi-arid areas that suffer from water stress already may face decreased groundwater recharge. The sea level rise that is likely to occur during the 21st century might leave many flat coral islands without a reliable groundwater source. However, in coastal areas with a land surface elevation of a few metres or more, groundwater availability is more strongly impacted by changes in groundwater recharge than sea-level rise. Under climate change, reliable surface water supply is likely to decrease due to increased temporal variations of river flow that are caused by increased precipitation variability and decreased snow/ice storage. Under these circumstances, it might be beneficial to take advantage of the storage capacity of groundwater and increase groundwater withdrawals. However, this option is only sustainable where groundwater withdrawals remain well below groundwater recharge. Groundwater is not likely to ease freshwater stress in those areas where climate change is projected to decrease groundwater recharge (e.g. Northeast Brazil and the Mediterranean basin).
251 citations
••
Met Office1, University of Reading2, City College of New York3, University of Nottingham4, International Livestock Research Institute5, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research6, University of Tokyo7, National Institute for Environmental Studies8, Max Planck Society9, Utrecht University10, University of Bonn11, University of New Hampshire12
TL;DR: River flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models are used to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.
Abstract: Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.
250 citations
••
University of London1, University of Bern2, Emory University3, University of Florence4, University of Santiago de Compostela5, Nagasaki University6, Umeå University7, Monash University8, University of Tsukuba9, Arizona State University10, University of Buenos Aires11, University of São Paulo12, Health Canada13, University of Ottawa14, University of Los Andes15, Fudan University16, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic17, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague18, University of Tartu19, Finnish Meteorological Institute20, University of Oulu21, Imperial College London22, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens23, Hakim Sabzevari University24, Brunel University London25, University of Tokyo26, Harvard University27, Norwegian Institute of Public Health28, Cayetano Heredia University29, Kyoto University30, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge31, University of Porto32, University of Turin33, Seoul National University34, University of Valencia35, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute36, University of Basel37, National Taiwan University38, National Institutes of Health39, University of the Republic40, Ho Chi Minh City Medicine and Pharmacy University41, European Space Agency42, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research43, Pablo de Olavide University44
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018.
Abstract: Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
250 citations
••
TL;DR: The field of historical hydrology can be defined as a research field occupying the interface between hydrology and history, with the objectives: to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of river flow and, in particular, extreme events (floods, ice phenomena, hydrological droughts) mainly for the period prior to the creation of national hydrology networks; and to investigate the vulnerability of past societies and economies to extreme hydrologogical events as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Historical hydrology can be defined as a research field occupying the interface between hydrology and history, with the objectives: to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of river flow and, in particular, extreme events (floods, ice phenomena, hydrological droughts) mainly for the period prior to the creation of national hydrological networks; and to investigate the vulnerability of past societies and economies to extreme hydrological events. It is a significant tool for the study of flood risk. Basic sources of documentary data on floods and methods of data collection and analysis are discussed. Research progress achieved in Europe in reconstructing past runoff conditions, hydrological and hydraulic analyses of historical floods, their meteorological causes, impacts and relation to climate change, as well as use of combined series of palaeofloods, instrumental and historical floods for reconstructing long-term flood records, is reviewed. Finally, the future research needs of historical hyd...
249 citations
••
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research1, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory2, Central Maine Community College3, Eni4, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis5, National Institute for Environmental Studies6, KAIST7, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency8, Utrecht University9
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies.
Abstract: Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.
248 citations
Authors
Showing all 1589 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Carl Folke | 133 | 360 | 125990 |
Adam Drewnowski | 106 | 486 | 41107 |
Jürgen Kurths | 105 | 1038 | 62179 |
Markus Reichstein | 103 | 386 | 53385 |
Stephen Polasky | 99 | 354 | 59148 |
Sandy P. Harrison | 96 | 329 | 34004 |
Owen B. Toon | 94 | 424 | 32237 |
Stephen Sitch | 94 | 262 | 52236 |
Yong Xu | 88 | 1391 | 39268 |
Dieter Neher | 85 | 424 | 26225 |
Johan Rockström | 85 | 236 | 57842 |
Jonathan A. Foley | 85 | 144 | 70710 |
Robert J. Scholes | 84 | 253 | 37019 |
Christoph Müller | 82 | 457 | 27274 |
Robert J. Nicholls | 79 | 515 | 35729 |