Institution
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Facility•Potsdam, Germany•
About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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University of Florida1, University of Bonn2, Blaise Pascal University3, Institut national de la recherche agronomique4, Stanford University5, Prince of Songkla University6, Agricultural Research Service7, University of Arizona8, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center9, Kansas State University10, International Water Management Institute11, Washington State University12, Michigan State University13, CGIAR14, University of Leeds15, Counterintelligence Field Activity16, Spanish National Research Council17, University of Tübingen18, University of Guelph19, University of Maryland, College Park20, Texas A&M University21, Aarhus University22, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research23, Indian Agricultural Research Institute24, Goddard Institute for Space Studies25, Rothamsted Research26, University of Hohenheim27, Wageningen University and Research Centre28, Chinese Academy of Sciences29, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation30, China Agricultural University31, Nanjing Agricultural University32
TL;DR: The authors systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating.
Abstract: Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
1,461 citations
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TL;DR: Synthesis of river-monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7% from 1936 to 1999, a large-scale change in freshwater flux.
Abstract: Synthesis of river-monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7% from 1936 to 1999. The average annual rate of increase was 2.0 ± 0.7 cubic kilometers per year. Consequently, average annual discharge from the six rivers is now about 128 cubic kilometers per year greater than it was when routine measurements of discharge began. Discharge was correlated with changes in both the North Atlantic Oscillation and global mean surface air temperature. The observed large-scale change in freshwater flux has potentially important implications for ocean circulation and climate.
1,442 citations
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Peking University1, Nanjing Agricultural University2, Stanford University3, Chinese Academy of Sciences4, University of Sassari5, Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives6, Institut national de la recherche agronomique7, University of Chicago8, University of Bonn9, University of Antwerp10, International Rice Research Institute11, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research12, Goddard Institute for Space Studies13, University of Florida14
TL;DR: Investigating the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales.
Abstract: Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
1,442 citations
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TL;DR: It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C.
Abstract: A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.
1,433 citations
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University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna1, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology2, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne3, Center for International Forestry Research4, University of Turin5, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic6, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague7, University of Naples Federico II8, Forestry Commission9, University of Bari10, University of Ljubljana11, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research12
TL;DR: It is concluded that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests, as warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens.
Abstract: Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.
1,388 citations
Authors
Showing all 1589 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Carl Folke | 133 | 360 | 125990 |
Adam Drewnowski | 106 | 486 | 41107 |
Jürgen Kurths | 105 | 1038 | 62179 |
Markus Reichstein | 103 | 386 | 53385 |
Stephen Polasky | 99 | 354 | 59148 |
Sandy P. Harrison | 96 | 329 | 34004 |
Owen B. Toon | 94 | 424 | 32237 |
Stephen Sitch | 94 | 262 | 52236 |
Yong Xu | 88 | 1391 | 39268 |
Dieter Neher | 85 | 424 | 26225 |
Johan Rockström | 85 | 236 | 57842 |
Jonathan A. Foley | 85 | 144 | 70710 |
Robert J. Scholes | 84 | 253 | 37019 |
Christoph Müller | 82 | 457 | 27274 |
Robert J. Nicholls | 79 | 515 | 35729 |