Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

About: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a facility organization based out in Potsdam, Germany. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate change & Global warming. The organization has 1519 authors who have published 5098 publications receiving 367023 citations.

Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates

Abstract: Aim To simulate the sowing dates of 11 major annual crops at the global scale at high spatial resolution, based on climatic conditions and crop-specific temperature requirements. Location Global. Methods Sowing dates under rainfed conditions are simulated deterministically based on a set of rules depending on crop-and climate-specific characteristics. We assume that farmers base their timing of sowing on experiences with past precipitation and temperature conditions, with the intra-annual variability being especially important. The start of the growing period is assumed to be dependent either on the onset of the wet season or on the exceeding of a crop-specific temperature threshold for emergence. To validate our methodology, a global data set of observed monthly growing periods (MIRCA2000) is used. Results We show simulated sowing dates for 11 major field crops world-wide and give rules for determining their sowing dates in a specific climatic region. For all simulated crops, except for rapeseed and cassava, in at least 50% of the grid cells and on at least 60% of the cultivated area, the difference between simulated and observed sowing dates is less than 1 month. Deviations of more than 5 months occur in regions characterized by multiple-cropping systems, in tropical regions which, despite seasonality, have favourable conditions throughout the year, and in countries with large climatic gradients. Main conclusions Sowing dates under rainfed conditions for various annual crops can be satisfactorily estimated from climatic conditions for large parts of the earth. Our methodology is globally applicable, and therefore suitable for simulating sowing dates as input for crop growth models applied at the global scale and taking climate change into account.

Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach

Abstract: Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.

Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios

Abstract: Based on a large number of energy-economic and integrated assessment models, the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 27 study systematically explores the implications of technology cost and availability for feasibility and macroeconomic costs of energy system transformations toward climate stabilization. At the highest level, the technology strategy articulated in all the scenarios in EMF27 includes three elements: decarbonization of energy supply, increasing the use of low-carbon energy carriers in end-use, and reduction of energy use. The way that the scenarios differ is in the degree to which these different elements of strategy are implemented, the timing of those implementations, and the associated macroeconomic costs. The study also discusses the value of individual technologies for achieving climate stabilization. A robust finding is that the unavailability of carbon capture and storage and limited availability of bioenergy have the largest impact on feasibility and macroeconomic costs for stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at low levels, mostly because of their combined ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Constraining options in the electric sector such as nuclear power, wind and solar energy in contrast has a much smaller impact on the cost of mitigation.

Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

Abstract: Impacts of climate change at 15, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate at 15, 2 and 3 °C These ensembles were then used to force an ensemble of five hydrological models and changes to hydrological indicators were calculated It is seen that there are clear changes in local impacts on evapotranspiration, mean, low and high runoff and snow water equivalent between a 15, 2 and 3 °C degree warmer world In a warmer world, the hydrological impacts of climate change are more intense and spatially more extensive Robust increases in runoff affect the Scandinavian mountains at 15 °C, but at 3 °C extend over most of Norway, Sweden and northern Poland At 3 °C, Norway is affected by robust changes in all indicators Decreases in mean annual runoff are seen only in Portugal at 15 °C warming, but at 3 °C warming, decreases to runoff are seen around the entire Iberian coast, the Balkan Coast and parts of the French coast In affected parts of Europe, there is a distinct increase in the changes to mean, low and high runoff at 2 °C compared to 15 °C, strengthening the case for mitigation to lower levels of global warming Between 2 and 3 °C, the changes in low and high runoff levels continue to increase, but the changes to mean runoff are less clear Changes to discharge in Europe’s larger rivers are less distinct due to the lack of homogenous and robust changes across larger river catchments, with the exception of Scandinavia where discharges increase with warming level