RAND Corporation

About: RAND Corporation is a nonprofit organization based out in Santa Monica, California, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Health care. The organization has 9602 authors who have published 18570 publications receiving 744658 citations.

The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity

Abstract: Population aging is widely assumed to have detrimental effects on economic growth yet there is little empirical evidence about the magnitude of its effects. This paper starts from the observation that many U.S. states have already experienced substantial growth in the size of their older population and much of this growth was predetermined by historical trends in fertility. We use predicted variation in the rate of population aging across U.S. states over the period 1980-2010 to estimate the economic impact of aging on state output per capita. We find that a 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60 decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5%. Two-thirds of the reduction is due to slower growth in the labor productivity of workers across the age distribution, while one-third arises from slower labor force growth. Our results imply annual GDP growth will slow by 1.2 percentage points this decade and 0.6 percentage points next decade due to population aging.

A Theoretical Perspective on Political Risk

Abstract: One of the fastest growing areas of research in international business has been political risk assessment. Concerned primarily with the identification, analysis, and management of sociopolitical and governmental restraints on foreign investment, the discipline has flourished in the wake of the international turmoil of recent years. An integral stage in the development of any new field is the establishment of a theoretical base upon which further research can build. This paper thus addresses itself to theoretical and conceptual issues in political risk assessment, focusing on the interrelationship of strategies, goals, and capabilities of key actors, as well as the impact of different environments on the formation of political risk. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach set forth in this paper, political risk in the Republic of South Africa is examined.

Developmental trajectories of cigarette smoking and their correlates from early adolescence to young adulthood.

Abstract: Smoking initiation typically occurs in adolescence and increases over time into emerging adulthood. Thus adolescence and emerging adulthood compose a critical time period for prevention and intervention efforts. To inform these efforts, this study used latent growth mixture modeling to identify 6 smoking trajectories from ages 13 to 23 among 5,914 individuals: nonsmokers (28%), stable highs (6%), early increasers (10%), late increasers (10%), decreasers (6%), and triers (40%). By age 23, the trajectories merged into 2 distinct groups of low- and high-frequency and their standing on age 23 outcomes reflected this grouping. Consideration of these results can help researchers identify at-risk individuals before their smoking becomes too problematic, providing an opportunity for intervention and possible prevention of nicotine dependence.

The opportunity costs of informal elder-care in the United States: new estimates from the American time use survey

Abstract: Objectives To provide nationally representative estimates of the opportunity costs of informal elder-care in the United States. Data Sources Data from the 2011 and 2012 American Time Use Survey. Study Design Wage is used as the measure of an individual's value of time (opportunity cost), with wages being imputed for nonworking individuals using a selection-corrected regression methodology. Principal Findings The total opportunity costs of informal elder-care amount to $522 billion annually, while the costs of replacing this care by unskilled and skilled paid care are $221 billion and $642 billion, respectively. Conclusions Informal caregiving remains a significant phenomenon in the United States with a high opportunity cost, although it remains more economical (in the aggregate) than skilled paid care.

The Role of Early-Life Educational Quality and Literacy in Explaining Racial Disparities in Cognition in Late Life

Abstract: Racial disparities in late-life cognitive test performance are well documented (Alley, Suthers, & Crimmins, 2007; Fillenbaum et al., 2001; Masel & Peek, 2009; Masel, Raji, & Peek, 2010; Rodgers, Ofstedal, & Herzog, 2003; Schwartz et al., 2004; Zsembik & Peek, 2001). Studies have shown that nondemented black older adults demonstrate lower cognitive test performance compared with white peers. These disparities are sometimes attenuated by demographic factors such as educational attainment and socioeconomic status (Barnes et al., 2011; Schwartz et al., 2004) or other predictors of cognitive function such as physical activity (Masel et al., 2010), occupational attainment (Manly et al., 1998), occupational prestige (Albert, 1995; Del Ser, Hachinsky, Merskey, & Munoz, 1999; Fratiglioni, 1996; Friedland, 1993; Katzman, 1993), and health-related variables (Manly et al., 1998; Mungas et al., 2009). Some studies suggest that race-related differences in late-life cognitive performance are sometimes (Fillenbaum et al., 2001), but not typically, eliminated by accounting for such variables. Literacy in late life, though highly correlated with years of education (Verhaeghen, 2003), has proven to be a stronger predictor of late-life cognitive functioning than years of education, especially for blacks (Dotson, Kitner-Triolo, Evans, & Zonderman, 2009). Adjusting for literacy has also been shown to greatly attenuate the estimated effect of race and to eliminate most racial differences on neuropsychological test performance in multiethnic elderly samples matched on years of education (Manly et al., 1999; Manly, Jacobs, Touradji, Small, & Stern, 2002; Touradji, Manly, Jacobs, & Stern, 2001). Literacy has been proposed to be a better predictor of late-life cognitive differences than years of education, especially for minorities, because it better approximates the cognitive benefits conferred by the early-life educational experience. Educational experiences can be characterized with respect to duration, for example, using years of schooling completed or degrees attained, or with respect to quality of schooling. The degree of cognitive benefit from education may better correspond with indices of educational quality than measures of educational attainment (Dotson et al., 2009). As Manly, Touradji, Tang, and Stern (2003) demonstrated, educational quality as approximated by literacy in later life is a stronger predictor of late-life cognitive performance than years of education. Evidence also suggests that educational quality, measured by state education policies, independently predicts late-life differences in cognition (Glymour, 2004). Historically, educational quality has varied widely across states and over time in the United States (Berkman & Glymour, 2006), with pronounced differences especially between northern and southern parts of the country. A majority of adults now aged 50 and older grew up during the influence of Jim Crow laws. Many blacks received their education in the South, where social conditions differed greatly from the North (Barnes, 1983). For example, most Southerners attended segregated schools, and schools for black students offered significantly lower quality education than schools for whites (Glymour & Manly, 2008). Because many of today’s black elders attended school under Jim Crow laws in segregated schools, race-based differences in educational quality may account for a substantial portion of the racial differences observed in late-life cognition. It is difficult to collect direct data on the quality of education received many decades ago, but recent research has taken advantage of historical state and local laws and records. For example, Lleras-Muney (2002) found that state-level compulsory school attendance laws predicted mortality in addition to average years of education completed for people born in a state. Related to the present study, Glymour (2004) found that individuals born in states that had high levels of mandatory schooling performed better on cognitive testing decades after finishing school, after controlling for demographic characteristics. This finding suggests that historical indices of early-life educational experiences, albeit imprecise on an individual level, may partly explain cognitive performance in later life. Considering the significant social and educational disparities that existed during early childhood for today’s older adults, state laws dictating educational policy, as well as other indices of educational quality (e.g., classroom size, student:teacher ratio), may independently explain a substantial portion of race-based differences in late-life cognition. The WHICAP (Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project) study, used in the present study, is a community-based study of cognitive aging in a multiethnic population of communities in New York City. WHICAP measured several individual- and state-level characteristics of early-life educational quality and collected individual-level measures of cognition and literacy during late life. The present study examined the utility of both early-life educational quality and literacy in explaining race-related differences in late-life cognitive performance within the WHICAP sample. We hypothesized that both educational quality and literacy account for a significant amount of the variance in general and domain-specific late-life cognitive performance, and both factors significantly attenuate the apparent racial disparities in level and pace of change in late-life cognitive functioning. We hypothesized that literacy is a stronger predictor of late-life cognitive functioning than educational quality for two reasons. First, literacy was measured more proximally to cognitive outcomes. Second, many indicators of early-life educational quality were obtained based on state records at the time participants were in school, and such area-level measures typically show weaker associations than those obtained at the individual level.