The Cyprus Institute

About: The Cyprus Institute is a other organization based out in Nicosia, Cyprus. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Aerosol & Environmental science. The organization has 418 authors who have published 1252 publications receiving 32586 citations.

Composition and variability of gaseous organic pollution in the port megacity of Istanbul: source attribution, emission ratios, and inventory evaluation

Abstract: . In the framework of the TRANSport Emissions and Mitigation in the East Mediterranean (TRANSEMED/ChArMEx) program, volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements were performed for the first time in Istanbul (Turkey) at an urban site in September 2014. One commercial gas chromatograph coupled to a flame ionization detector (GC–FID) and one proton transfer mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) were deployed. In addition, sorbent tubes and canisters were implemented within the megacity close to major emission sources. More than 70 species including non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs), and organic compounds of intermediate volatility (IVOCs) have been quantified. Among these compounds, 23 anthropogenic and biogenic species were continuously collected at the urban site. VOC concentrations show a great variability with maxima exceeding 10 ppb (i.e., n -butane, toluene, methanol, and acetaldehyde) and mean values between 0.1 (methacrolein + methyl vinyl ketone) and 4.9 ppb (methanol). OVOCs represent 43.9 % of the total VOC concentrations followed by alkanes (26.3 %), aromatic compounds (20.7 %), alkenes (4.8 %), terpenes (3.4 %), and acetonitrile (0.8 %). Five factors have been extracted from the Positive Matrix Factorization model (EPA PMF 5.0) and have been compared to source profiles established by near-field measurements and other external variables (meteorological parameters, NOx , CO, SO2 , etc.). Surprisingly, road transport is not the dominant source, only explaining 15.8 % of measured VOC concentrations contrary to the local emission inventory. Other factors are toluene from solvent use (14.2 %), biogenic terpenes (7.8 %), natural gas evaporation (25.9 %) composed of butanes, and a last factor characterized by mixed regional emissions and composed of most of the species (36.3 %). The PMF model results point out the influence of industrial emissions while there is no clear evidence of the impact of ship emissions on the measured VOC distribution. For the latter additional measurements of organic compounds of lower volatility like IVOC would be helpful. The sensitivity of PMF results to input data (time resolution, meteorological period, peak episode, interpolation method) was tested. While some PMF runs do not perform as well statistically as the reference run, sensitivity tests show that the same factors (number and type) are found with slightly different factor contributions (up to 16 % of change). Finally, the emission ratios (ERs) of VOCs relative to carbon monoxide (CO) were established. These ratios are usually higher than the ones of other cities worldwide but in the same range of magnitude. These ERs and the road transport factor from PMF were used to estimate VOC emissions and to evaluate three downscaled global emissions inventories (EDGAR, ACCMIP, and MACCity). It was found that the total annual VOC anthropogenic emissions by global inventories were either within the same range by a factor of 2 to 3 for alkanes and aromatics or underestimated by an order of magnitude, especially for oxygenated VOCs.

Regional new particle formation as modulators of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplet number in the eastern Mediterranean

Abstract: . A significant fraction of atmospheric particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are thought to originate from the condensational growth of new particle formation (NPF) from the gas phase. Here, 7 years of continuous aerosol and meteorological measurements (June 2008 to May 2015) at a remote background site of the eastern Mediterranean were recorded and analyzed to assess the impact of NPF (of 162 episodes identified) on CCN and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) formation in the region. A new metric is introduced to quantitatively determine the initiation and duration of the influence of NPF on the CCN spectrum. NPF days were found to increase CCN concentrations (from 0.10 % to 1.00 % supersaturation) between 29 % and 77 %. Enhanced CCN concentrations from NPF are mostly observed, as expected, under low preexisting particle concentrations and occur in the afternoon, relatively later in the winter and autumn than in the summer. Potential impacts of NPF on cloud formation were quantified by introducing the observed aerosol size distributions and chemical composition into an established cloud droplet parameterization. We find that the supersaturations that develop are very low (ranging between 0.03 % and 0.27 %) for typical boundary layer dynamics ( σw ∼0.3 m s −1 ) and NPF is found to enhance CDNC by a modest 13 %. This considerable contrast between CCN and CDNC response is in part from the different supersaturation levels considered, but also because supersaturation drops from increasing CCN because of water vapor competition effects during the process of droplet formation. The low cloud supersaturation further delays the appearance of NPF impacts on CDNC to clouds formed in the late evening and nighttime – which has important implications for the extent and types of indirect effects induced by NPF events. An analysis based on CCN concentrations using prescribed supersaturation can provide very different, even misleading, conclusions and should therefore be avoided. The proposed approach here offers a simple, yet highly effective way for a more realistic impact assessment of NPF events on cloud formation.

Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation

Abstract: Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.