Showing papers by "Tilburg University published in 2000"

Introduction to the CoNLL-2000 shared task: chunking

Abstract: We describe the CoNLL-2000 shared task: dividing text into syntactically related non-overlapping groups of words, so-called text chunking. We give background information on the data sets, present a general overview of the systems that have taken part in the shared task and briefly discuss their performance.

Information system integration

Abstract: Consequently, public security and defense organizations can see the real-time locations of various people, units, and equipment in their GIS system, thanks to Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, while getting updates from SAP ERP with details about the current status and capabilities of those units, also updated in real-time as needed using enterprise services. With this bundle, users can create, maintain, and edit the relationships of organizational units (referred to in enterprise SOA terms as ) in public security and defense organizations (such as, for instance, Functional Units brigades, companies, and platoons), deployed or otherwise. In addition, they can read, change, and update the attributes of positions, personnel, and materials within these units.

The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions

Abstract: Although price promotions have increased in both commercial use and quantity of academic research over the last decade, most of the attention has been focused on their effects on brand choice and brand sales. By contrast, little is known about the conditions under which price promotions expand short-run and long-run category demand, even though the benefits of category expansion can be substantial to manufacturers and retailers alike. This paper studies the category-demand effects of consumer price promotions across 560 consumer product categories over a 4-year period. The data describe national sales in Dutch supermarkets and cover virtually the entire marketing mix, i.e., prices, promotions, advertising, distribution, and new-product activity. We focus on the estimation of main effects i.e., the dynamic category expansive impact of price promotions as well as the moderating effects of marketing intensity and competition both conduct and structure on short-and long-run promotional effectiveness. The research design uses modern multivariate time-series analysis to disentangle short-run and long-run effects. First, we conduct a series of unit-root tests to determine whether or not category demand is stationary or evolving over time. The results are incorporated in the specification of vector-autoregressive models with exogenous variables VARX models. The impulse-response functions derived from these VARX models provide estimates of the short-and long-term effects of price promotions on category demand. These estimates, in turn, are used as dependent variables in a series of second-stage regressions that assess the explanatory power of marketing intensity and competition. Several model validation tests support the robustness of the empirical findings. We present our results in the form of empirical generalizations on the main effects of price promotions on category demand in the short and the long run and through statistical tests on how these effects change with marketing intensity and competition. The findings generate an overall picture of the power and limitations of consumer price promotions in expanding category demand, as follows. Category demand is found to be predominantly stationary, either around a fixed mean or a deterministic trend. Although the total net short-term effects of price promotions are generally strong, with an average elasticity of 2.21 and a more conservative median elasticity of 1.75, they rarely exhibit persistent effects. Instead, the effects dissipate over a time period lasting approximately 10 weeks on average, and their long-term impact is essentially zero. By contrast, the successful introduction of new products into a category is more frequently associated with a permanent category-demand increase. Several moderating effects on price-promotion effectiveness exist. More frequent promotions increase their effectiveness, but only in the short run. The use of nonprice advertising reduces the category-demand effects of price promotions, both in the short run and in the long run. Competitive structure matters as well: The less oligopolistic the category, the smaller the short-run effectiveness of price promotions. At the same time, we find that the dominant form of competitive reaction, either in price promotion or in advertising, is no reaction. Short-run category-demand effectiveness of price promotions is lower in categories experiencing major new-product introductions. Finally, both the short-and long-run price promotion effectiveness is higher in perishable product categories. The paper discusses several managerial implications of these empirical findings and suggests various avenues for future research. Overall, we conclude that the power of price promotions lies primarily in the preservation of the status quo in the category.

Financial Structure and Bank Profitability

Abstract: For countries with underdeveloped financial systems, a move toward a more developed financial system reduces bank margins and profitability. Controlling for both bank and market development, financial structure per se - the development of banks relative to that of markets-appears to have no independent effect on bank performance. Countries differ in the extent to which their financial systems are bank-based or market-based. The financial systems of Germany and Japan, for example, are considered bank-based because banks play a leading role in mobilizing savings, allocating capital, overseeing investment decisions of corporate managers, and providing risk management vehicles. The systems of the United States and the United Kingdom are considered more market-based. Using bank-level data for a large number of industrial and developing countries, Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga present evidence about the impact of financial development and structure on bank performance. They measure the relative importance of bank or market finance by the relative size of stock aggregates, by relative trading or transaction volumes, and by indicators of relative efficiency. They show that in developing countries both banks and stock markets are less developed, but financial systems tend to be more bank-based. The richer the country, the more active are all financial intermediaries. The greater the development of a country's banks, the tougher is the competition, the greater is the efficiency, and the lower are the bank margins and profits. The more underdeveloped the stock market, the greater are the bank profits. But financial structure per se does not have a significant, independent influence on bank margins and profits. This paper - a product of Finance, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study financial structure and development. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Financial Structure and Economic Development (RPO 682-41). The authors may be contacted at ademirguckunt@worldbank.org or h.p.huizinga@kub.nl.

Cultural variation of leadership prototypes across 22 European countries

Abstract: This study sets out to test the assumption that concepts of leadership differ as a function of cultural differences in Europe and to identify dimensions which describe differences in leadership concepts across European countries. Middle-level managers (N = 6052) from 22 European countries rated 112 questionnaire items containing descriptions of leadership traits and behaviours. For each attribute respondents rated how well it fits their concept of an outstanding business leader. The findings support the assumption that leadership concepts are culturally endorsed. Specifically, clusters of European countries which share similar cultural values according to prior cross-cultural research (Ronen & Shenkar, 1985), also share similar leadership concepts. The leadership prototypicality dimensions found are highly correlated with cultural dimensions reported in a comprehensive cross-cultural study of contemporary Europe (Smith, Dugan, & Trompenaars, 1996). The ordering of countries on the leadership dimensions is considered a useful tool with which to model differences between leadership concepts of different cultural origin in Europe. Practical implications for cross-cultural management, both in European and non-European settings, are discussed.

Non-cooperative Games

Abstract: Non-cooperative games are mathematical models of interactive strategic decision situations. In contrast t o cooperative models, they build on the assumption that all possibilities for commitment and contract have been incorporated in the rules of the game. This contribution describes the main models (games in normal form, and games in extensive form), as well as the main concepts that have been proposed to solve these games. Solution concepts predict the outcomes that might arise when the game is played by ?rational? individuals, or after learning processes have converged. Most of these solution concepts are variations of the equilibrium concept that was proposed by John Nash in the 1950s, a Nash equilibrium being a combination of strategies such that no player can improve his payoff by deviating unilaterally. The paper also discusses the justifications of these concepts and concludes with remarks about the applicability of game theory in contexts where players are less than fully rational.

Hemispheric Asymmetries for Whole-Based and Part-Based Face Processing in the Human Fusiform Gyrus

Abstract: Behavioral studies indicate a right hemisphere advantage for processing a face as a whole and a left hemisphere superiority for processing based on face features. The present PET study identifies the anatomical localization of these effects in well-defined regions of the middle fusiform gyri of both hemispheres. The right middle fusiform gyrus, previously described as a face-specific region, was found to be more activated when matching whole faces than face parts whereas this pattern of activity was reversed in the left homologous region. These lateralized differences appeared to be specific to faces since control objects processed either as wholes or parts did not induce any change of activity within these regions. This double dissociation between two modes of face processing brings new evidence regarding the lateralized localization of face individualization mechanisms in the human brain.

Does the Recent Success of Some OECD Countries in Lowering their Unemployment Rates Lie in the Clever Design of their Labour Market Reforms

Abstract: The development of the unemployment rate differs substantially between OECD countries. In recent years some countries experienced a mild increase, other countries had a stable unemployment rate, while there are also "successful" countries in which the unemployment rate decreased a lot. A common feature of the successful countries is that they implemented a comprehensive set of institutional reforms. In this paper we present a theoretical and empirical framework to investigate how unemployment is affected by different labour market institutions (LMI) such as labour taxes, unemployment benefits, employment protection, union bargaining power and (de)centralisation of bargaining. We argue that complementarities between LMI can be exploited to improve labour market performance. In our empirical analysis of annual data over the period 1960-1995 of eighteen OECD countries we show that interactions between LMI are indeed important.

Eye Fixations on Advertisements and Memory for Brands: A Model and Findings

Abstract: The number of brands in the marketplace has vastly increased in the 1980s and 1990s, and the amount of money spent on advertising has run parallel. Print advertising is a major communication instrument for advertisers, but print media have become cluttered with advertisements for brands. Therefore, it has become difficult to attract and keep consumers' attention. Advertisements that fail to gain and retain consumers' attention cannot be effective, but attention is not sufficient: Advertising needs to leave durable traces of brands in memory. Eye movements are eminent indicators of visual attention. However, what is currently missing in eye movementresearch is a serious account of the processing that takes place to store information in long-term memory. We attempt to provide such an account through the development of a formal model. We model the process by which eye fixations on print advertisements lead to memory for the advertised brands, using a hierarchical Bayesian model, but, rather than postulating such a model as a mere data-analysis tool, we derive it from substantive theory on attention and memory. The model is calibrated to eye-movement data that are collected during exposure of subjects to ads in magazines, and subsequent recognition of the brand in a perceptual memory task. During exposure to the ads we record the frequencies of fixations on three ad elements; brand, pictorial and text and, during the memory task, the accuracy and latency of memory. Thus, the available data for each subject consist of the frequency of fixations on the ad elements and the accuracy and the latency of memory. The model that we develop is grounded in attention and memory theory and describes information extraction and accumulation during ad exposure and their effect on the accuracy and latency of brand memory. In formulating it, we assume that subjects have different eye-fixation rates for the different ad elements, because of which a negative binomial model of fixation frequency arises, and we specify the influence of the size of the ad elements. It is assumed that the number of fixations, not their duration, is related to the amount of information a consumer extracts from an ad. The information chunks extracted at each fixation are assumed to be random, varying across ads and consumers, and are estimated from the observed data. The accumulation of information across multiple fixations to the ad elements in long-term memory is assumed to be additive. The total amount of accumulated information that is not directly observed but estimated using our model influences both the accuracy and latency of subsequent brand memory. Accurate memory is assumed to occur when the accumulated information exceeds a threshold that varies randomly across ads and consumers in a binary probit-type of model component. The effect of two media-planning variables, the ad's serial position in a magazine and the ad's location on the double page, on the brand memory threshold are specified. We formulate hypotheses on the effects of ad element surface, serial position, and location. The model is applied in a study involving a sample of 88 consumers who were exposed to 65 print ads appearing in their natural context in two magazines. The frequency of eye fixations was recorded for each consumer and advertisement with infrared eye-tracking methodology. In a subsequent indirect memory task, consumers identified the brands from pixelated images of the ads. Across the two magazines, fixations to the pictorial and the brand systematically promote accurate brand memory, but text fixations do not. Brand surface has a particularly prominent effect. The more information is extracted from an ad during fixations, the shorter the latency of brand memory is. We find a systematic recency effect: When subjects are exposed to an ad later, they tend to identify it better. In addition, there is a small primacy effect. The effect of the ad's location on the right or left of the page depends on the advertising context. We show how the model supports advertising planning and testing and offer recommendations for further research on the effectiveness of brand communication. In future research the model may be extended to accommodate the effects of repeated exposure to ads, to further detail the representation of strength and association of memory, and to include the effects of creative tactics and media planning variables beyond the ones we included in the present study.

Inadequate Response to Treatment in Coronary Heart Disease Adverse Effects of Type D Personality and Younger Age on 5-Year Prognosis and Quality of Life

Abstract: Background—Improvement in treatment of patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) has caused longer survival but also an increase in the number of patients at risk for subsequent cardiac events and impaired quality of life (QOL). We hypothesized that chronic emotional distress confers an increased risk of poor outcome despite appropriate treatment. Methods and Results—This prospective study examined the 5-year prognosis of 319 patients with CHD. Baseline assessment included symptoms of depression/anxiety and distressed personality type (type D—ie, high negative affectivity and social inhibition). The main end points were cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction and impaired QOL. There were 22 cardiac events (16 nonfatal); they were related to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤50%, poor exercise tolerance, age ≤55 years, symptoms of depression, and type D personality. Multivariate analysis yielded LVEF ≤50% (OR, 3.9; P=0.009), type D personality (OR, 8.9; P=0.0001), and age ≤55 years (OR, 2...

Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence

Abstract: This paper reviews recent research on central bank independence (CBI). After we have distinguished between independence and conservativeness, the literature on optimal inflation contracts is discussed, followed by research in which the inflationary bias is endogenised. Finally, the various challenges that have been raised against previous empirical findings on CBI are reviewed. We conclude that the negative relationship between CBI and inflation is quite robust.

Time series analysis of non‐Gaussian observations based on state space models from both classical and Bayesian perspectives

Abstract: The analysis of non-Gaussian time series by using state space models is considered from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. The treatment in both cases is based on simulation using importance sampling and antithetic variables; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are not employed. Non-Gaussian disturbances for the state equation as well as for the observation equation are considered. Methods for estimating conditional and posterior means of functions of the state vector given the observations, and the mean-square errors of their estimates, are developed. These methods are extended to cover the estimation of conditional and posterior densities and distribution functions. The choice of importance sampling densities and antithetic variables is discussed. The techniques work well in practice and are computationally efficient. Their use is illustrated by applying them to a univariate discrete time series, a series with outliers and a volatility series.

Sound enhances visual perception: cross-modal effects of auditory organization on vision.

Abstract: Six experiments demonstrated cross-modal influences from the auditory modality on the visual modality at an early level of perceptual organization. Participants had to detect a visual target in a rapidly changing sequence of visual distractors. A high tone embedded in a sequence of low tones improved detection of a synchronously presented visual target (Experiment 1), but the effect disappeared when the high tone was presented before the target (Experiment 2). Rhythmically based or order-based anticipation was unlikely to account for the effect because the improvement was unaffected by whether there was jitter (Experiment 3) or a random number of distractors between successive targets (Experiment 4). The facilitatory effect was greatly reduced when the tone was less abrupt and part of a melody (Experiments 5 and 6). These results show that perceptual organization in the auditory modality can have an effect on perceptibility in the visual modality.

Methodological Issues in Psychological Research on Culture

Abstract: The extent to which methodological tools can help correct the overemphasis on fact finding and speed up the slow theoretical progress in cross-cultural psychology is analyzed. Two types of contributions to the current predicament are delineated. First, cross-cultural psychologists have created their own partis pris. Second, partis pris have been inherited from mainstream psychology. In the future, most cross-cultural studies will be carried out by researchers who have an interest in cultural variations on specific variables or instruments, whereas the group of researchers who spend their professional lives in cross-cultural psychology will remain small but influential. Methodological issues arising in studies by both groups are described. Important trends are (a) the change from exploration to explanation of cross-cultural differences, which has implications for the design of cross-cultural studies; and (b) the so-far-hesitant usage of recently developed statistical techniques, such as item response theor...

Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets

Abstract: We present a simple model implying that futures risk premia depend on both ownmarket and cross-market hedging pressures. Empirical evidence from 20 futures markets, divided into four groups ~financial, agricultural, mineral, and currency! indicates that, after controlling for systematic risk, both the futures own hedging pressure and cross-hedging pressures from within the group significantly affect futures returns. These effects remain significant after controlling for a measure of price pressure. Finally, we show that hedging pressure also contains explanatory power for returns on the underlying asset, as predicted by the model. FUTURES PRICES ARE KNOWN TO DEVIATE from expected future spot prices because of risk premia that traders expect to earn ~or pay! when trading in futures markets. Futures risk premia are important because they affect the costs and benefits of hedging, as well as the diversification benefits that result from including futures in investment portfolios. Also, to the extent that economic agents make their production, storage, and consumption decisions by looking at futures prices as indicators of future spot prices, it is important to know the bias that exists in futures prices. There is an ongoing debate about the determinants of futures risk premia. Futures risk premia are usually related to systematic risk, as in the work of Dusak ~1973!, Black ~1976!, and Jagannathan ~1985!, among others, and to net positions of hedgers in futures markets, which is known as hedging pressure. Hedging pressure results from risks that agents cannot, or do not want to trade because of market frictions such as transaction costs and information asymmetries. The use of hedging pressure as an explanation for the futures price bias dates back to Keynes ~1930! and Hicks ~1939!, and has more recently been incorporated in models that allow both hedging pressure and systematic risk to affect futures prices ~see, e.g., Stoll ~1979! and Hirshleifer ~1988, 1989!!. Carter, Rausser, and Schmitz ~1983! and Bessembinder ~1992! provide empirical evidence for the combined role of the futures con

Financial Dependence and International Trade

Abstract: Does financial development translate into a comparative advantage in industries that use more external finance? The author uses industry-level data on firms' dependence on external finance for 36 industries and 56 countries to examine this question. It is shown that countries with better-developed financial systems have higher export shares and trade balances in industries that use more external finance. These results are robust to the use of alternative measures of external dependence and financial development and are not due to reverse causality or simultaneity bias.

Neutralizing the Adverse Industry Impacts of CO2 Abatement Policies: What Does It Cost?

Abstract: The most cost-effective policies for achieving CO2 abatement (e.g., carbon taxes) fail to get off the ground politically because of unacceptable distributional consequences. This paper explores CO2 abatement policies designed to address distributional concerns. Using an intertemporal numerical general equilibrium model of the U.S., we examine how efficiency costs change when these policies include features that neutralize adverse impacts on energy industries. We find that avoiding adverse impacts on profits and equity values in fossil fuel industries involves a relatively small efficiency cost. This stems from the fact that CO2 abatement policies have the potential to generate revenues that are very large relative to the potential loss of profit. By enabling firms to retain only a very small fraction of these potential revenues, the government can protect firms' profits and equity values. Thus, the government needs to grandfather only a small percentage of CO2 emissions permits or, similarly, must exempt only a small fraction of emissions from the base of a carbon tax. These policies involve a small sacrifice of potential government revenue. Such revenue has an efficiency value because it can finance cuts in pre-existing distortionary taxes. Because the revenue sacrifice is small, the efficiency cost is small as well. We also find that there is a very large difference between preserving firms' profits and preserving their tax payments. Offsetting producers' carbon tax payments on a dollar-for-dollar basis (through cuts in corporate tax rates, for example) substantially overcompensates firms, raising profits and equity values significantly relative to the unregulated situation. This reflects the fact that producers can shift onto consumers most of the burden from a carbon tax. The efficiency costs of such policies are far greater than the costs of policies that do not overcompensate firms.

The ventriloquist effect does not depend on the direction of deliberate visual attention

Abstract: It is well known that discrepancies in the location of synchronized auditory and visual events can lead to mislocalizations of the auditory source, so-called ventriloquism. In two experiments, we tested whether such cross-modal influences on auditory localization depend on deliberate visual attention to the biasing visual event. In Experiment 1, subjects pointed to the apparent source of sounds in the presence or absence of a synchronous peripheral flash. They also monitored for target visual events, either at the location of the peripheral flash or in a central location. Auditory localization was attracted toward the synchronous peripheral flash, but this was unaffected by where deliberate visual attention was directed in the monitoring task. In Experiment 2, bilateral flashes were presented in synchrony with each sound, to provide competing visual attractors. When these visual events were equally salient on the two sides, auditory localization was unaffected by which side subjects monitored for visual targets. When one flash was larger than the other, auditory localization was slightly but reliably attracted toward it, but again regardless of where visual monitoring was required. We conclude that ventriloquism largely reflects automatic sensory interactions, with little or no role for deliberate spatial attention.

Popular support for institutionalised solidarity: a comparison between European welfare states

Abstract: In this article, we study the determinants of supportiveness for the welfare state as a system of institutionalised solidarity. We distinguish between two types of support; namely, 1) whether people hold the state responsible for achieving social-economic security and distributive justice, and 2) people's preference for the range of these goals that should be realised if the state is indeed held responsible. Using data from the Eurobarometer survey series, we investigate how, and to what extent, both kinds of support for the welfare state are related to position in the stratification structure, demographic characteristics, and social-political beliefs, as well as to features of European welfare state regimes. The results of a two-level hierarchical model suggest that moral commitment to the welfare state dominates at the individual level, whereas self-interest enters the picture mainly if a person is highly dependent on the provisions of the welfare state. Further, the findings give no support to the claim of a systematic variation between levels of popular support for the welfare state and its institutional set-up.