Showing papers by "University of Bergen published in 2019"

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies new loci and functional pathways influencing Alzheimer's disease risk.

Abstract: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is highly heritable and recent studies have identified over 20 disease-associated genomic loci. Yet these only explain a small proportion of the genetic variance, indicating that undiscovered loci remain. Here, we performed a large genome-wide association study of clinically diagnosed AD and AD-by-proxy (71,880 cases, 383,378 controls). AD-by-proxy, based on parental diagnoses, showed strong genetic correlation with AD (rg = 0.81). Meta-analysis identified 29 risk loci, implicating 215 potential causative genes. Associated genes are strongly expressed in immune-related tissues and cell types (spleen, liver, and microglia). Gene-set analyses indicate biological mechanisms involved in lipid-related processes and degradation of amyloid precursor proteins. We show strong genetic correlations with multiple health-related outcomes, and Mendelian randomization results suggest a protective effect of cognitive ability on AD risk. These results are a step forward in identifying the genetic factors that contribute to AD risk and add novel insights into the neurobiology of AD.

Discovery of the first genome-wide significant risk loci for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Abstract: Attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a highly heritable childhood behavioral disorder affecting 5% of children and 2.5% of adults. Common genetic variants contribute substantially to ADHD susceptibility, but no variants have been robustly associated with ADHD. We report a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 20,183 individuals diagnosed with ADHD and 35,191 controls that identifies variants surpassing genome-wide significance in 12 independent loci, finding important new information about the underlying biology of ADHD. Associations are enriched in evolutionarily constrained genomic regions and loss-of-function intolerant genes and around brain-expressed regulatory marks. Analyses of three replication studies: a cohort of individuals diagnosed with ADHD, a self-reported ADHD sample and a meta-analysis of quantitative measures of ADHD symptoms in the population, support these findings while highlighting study-specific differences on genetic overlap with educational attainment. Strong concordance with GWAS of quantitative population measures of ADHD symptoms supports that clinical diagnosis of ADHD is an extreme expression of continuous heritable traits.

JASPAR 2020: update of the open-access database of transcription factor binding profiles

Abstract: JASPAR (http://jaspar.genereg.net) is an open-access database of curated, non-redundant transcription factor (TF)-binding profiles stored as position frequency matrices (PFMs) for TFs across multiple species in six taxonomic groups. In this 8th release of JASPAR, the CORE collection has been expanded with 245 new PFMs (169 for vertebrates, 42 for plants, 17 for nematodes, 10 for insects, and 7 for fungi), and 156 PFMs were updated (125 for vertebrates, 28 for plants and 3 for insects). These new profiles represent an 18% expansion compared to the previous release. JASPAR 2020 comes with a novel collection of unvalidated TF-binding profiles for which our curators did not find orthogonal supporting evidence in the literature. This collection has a dedicated web form to engage the community in the curation of unvalidated TF-binding profiles. Moreover, we created a Q&A forum to ease the communication between the user community and JASPAR curators. Finally, we updated the genomic tracks, inference tool, and TF-binding profile similarity clusters. All the data is available through the JASPAR website, its associated RESTful API, and through the JASPAR2020 R/Bioconductor package.

Genome-wide association study identifies 30 loci associated with bipolar disorder

Abstract: Bipolar disorder is a highly heritable psychiatric disorder. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 20,352 cases and 31,358 controls of European descent, with follow-up analysis of 822 variants with P < 1 × 10-4 in an additional 9,412 cases and 137,760 controls. Eight of the 19 variants that were genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery GWAS were not genome-wide significant in the combined analysis, consistent with small effect sizes and limited power but also with genetic heterogeneity. In the combined analysis, 30 loci were genome-wide significant, including 20 newly identified loci. The significant loci contain genes encoding ion channels, neurotransmitter transporters and synaptic components. Pathway analysis revealed nine significantly enriched gene sets, including regulation of insulin secretion and endocannabinoid signaling. Bipolar I disorder is strongly genetically correlated with schizophrenia, driven by psychosis, whereas bipolar II disorder is more strongly correlated with major depressive disorder. These findings address key clinical questions and provide potential biological mechanisms for bipolar disorder.

Porphyromonas gingivalis in Alzheimer’s disease brains: Evidence for disease causation and treatment with small-molecule inhibitors

Abstract: Porphyromonas gingivalis, the keystone pathogen in chronic periodontitis, was identified in the brain of Alzheimer's disease patients. Toxic proteases from the bacterium called gingipains were also identified in the brain of Alzheimer's patients, and levels correlated with tau and ubiquitin pathology. Oral P. gingivalis infection in mice resulted in brain colonization and increased production of Aβ1-42, a component of amyloid plaques. Further, gingipains were neurotoxic in vivo and in vitro, exerting detrimental effects on tau, a protein needed for normal neuronal function. To block this neurotoxicity, we designed and synthesized small-molecule inhibitors targeting gingipains. Gingipain inhibition reduced the bacterial load of an established P. gingivalis brain infection, blocked Aβ1-42 production, reduced neuroinflammation, and rescued neurons in the hippocampus. These data suggest that gingipain inhibitors could be valuable for treating P. gingivalis brain colonization and neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease.

CHOPCHOP v3: expanding the CRISPR web toolbox beyond genome editing

Abstract: The CRISPR-Cas system is a powerful genome editing tool that functions in a diverse array of organisms and cell types. The technology was initially developed to induce targeted mutations in DNA, but CRISPR-Cas has now been adapted to target nucleic acids for a range of purposes. CHOPCHOP is a web tool for identifying CRISPR-Cas single guide RNA (sgRNA) targets. In this major update of CHOPCHOP, we expand our toolbox beyond knockouts. We introduce functionality for targeting RNA with Cas13, which includes support for alternative transcript isoforms and RNA accessibility predictions. We incorporate new DNA targeting modes, including CRISPR activation/repression, targeted enrichment of loci for long-read sequencing, and prediction of Cas9 repair outcomes. Finally, we expand our results page visualization to reveal alternative isoforms and downstream ATG sites, which will aid users in avoiding the expression of truncated proteins. The CHOPCHOP web tool now supports over 200 genomes and we have released a command-line script for running larger jobs and handling unsupported genomes. CHOPCHOP v3 can be found at https://chopchop.cbu.uib.no.

An overview of deep learning in medical imaging focusing on MRI

Abstract: What has happened in machine learning lately, and what does it mean for the future of medical image analysis? Machine learning has witnessed a tremendous amount of attention over the last few years. The current boom started around 2009 when so-called deep artificial neural networks began outperforming other established models on a number of important benchmarks. Deep neural networks are now the state-of-the-art machine learning models across a variety of areas, from image analysis to natural language processing, and widely deployed in academia and industry. These developments have a huge potential for medical imaging technology, medical data analysis, medical diagnostics and healthcare in general, slowly being realized. We provide a short overview of recent advances and some associated challenges in machine learning applied to medical image processing and image analysis. As this has become a very broad and fast expanding field we will not survey the entire landscape of applications, but put particular focus on deep learning in MRI. Our aim is threefold: (i) give a brief introduction to deep learning with pointers to core references; (ii) indicate how deep learning has been applied to the entire MRI processing chain, from acquisition to image retrieval, from segmentation to disease prediction; (iii) provide a starting point for people interested in experimenting and perhaps contributing to the field of deep learning for medical imaging by pointing out good educational resources, state-of-the-art open-source code, and interesting sources of data and problems related medical imaging.

FCC-ee: The Lepton Collider: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 2

Abstract: In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched, as an international collaboration hosted by CERN. This study covers a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee) and an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), which could, successively, be installed in the same 100 km tunnel. The scientific capabilities of the integrated FCC programme would serve the worldwide community throughout the 21st century. The FCC study also investigates an LHC energy upgrade, using FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the second volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the electron-positron collider FCC-ee. After summarizing the physics discovery opportunities, it presents the accelerator design, performance reach, a staged operation scenario, the underlying technologies, civil engineering, technical infrastructure, and an implementation plan. FCC-ee can be built with today’s technology. Most of the FCC-ee infrastructure could be reused for FCC-hh. Combining concepts from past and present lepton colliders and adding a few novel elements, the FCC-ee design promises outstandingly high luminosity. This will make the FCC-ee a unique precision instrument to study the heaviest known particles (Z, W and H bosons and the top quark), offering great direct and indirect sensitivity to new physics.

Genome-wide association study identifies eight risk loci and implicates metabo-psychiatric origins for anorexia nervosa

Abstract: Characterized primarily by a low body-mass index, anorexia nervosa is a complex and serious illness1, affecting 0.9-4% of women and 0.3% of men2-4, with twin-based heritability estimates of 50-60%5. Mortality rates are higher than those in other psychiatric disorders6, and outcomes are unacceptably poor7. Here we combine data from the Anorexia Nervosa Genetics Initiative (ANGI)8,9 and the Eating Disorders Working Group of the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC-ED) and conduct a genome-wide association study of 16,992 cases of anorexia nervosa and 55,525 controls, identifying eight significant loci. The genetic architecture of anorexia nervosa mirrors its clinical presentation, showing significant genetic correlations with psychiatric disorders, physical activity, and metabolic (including glycemic), lipid and anthropometric traits, independent of the effects of common variants associated with body-mass index. These results further encourage a reconceptualization of anorexia nervosa as a metabo-psychiatric disorder. Elucidating the metabolic component is a critical direction for future research, and paying attention to both psychiatric and metabolic components may be key to improving outcomes.

Glutamatergic synaptic input to glioma cells drives brain tumour progression

Abstract: A network of communicating tumour cells that is connected by tumour microtubes mediates the progression of incurable gliomas. Moreover, neuronal activity can foster malignant behaviour of glioma cells by non-synaptic paracrine and autocrine mechanisms. Here we report a direct communication channel between neurons and glioma cells in different disease models and human tumours: functional bona fide chemical synapses between presynaptic neurons and postsynaptic glioma cells. These neurogliomal synapses show a typical synaptic ultrastructure, are located on tumour microtubes, and produce postsynaptic currents that are mediated by glutamate receptors of the AMPA subtype. Neuronal activity including epileptic conditions generates synchronised calcium transients in tumour-microtube-connected glioma networks. Glioma-cell-specific genetic perturbation of AMPA receptors reduces calcium-related invasiveness of tumour-microtube-positive tumour cells and glioma growth. Invasion and growth are also reduced by anaesthesia and the AMPA receptor antagonist perampanel, respectively. These findings reveal a biologically relevant direct synaptic communication between neurons and glioma cells with potential clinical implications.

Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract: Objectives To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Design Systematic analysis. Main outcome measures Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). Results The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Conclusions Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH)–a community perspective

Abstract: This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.

Are 90% of deaths from cancer caused by metastases?

Abstract: Numerous publications have stated that metastases are responsible for 90% of cancer deaths, but data underlying this assertion has been lacking. Our objective was to determine what proportions of cancer deaths are caused by metastases. Population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway for the years 2005-2015 was analyzed. We compared all deaths in the Norwegian population where a cancer diagnosis was registered as cause of death. Deaths caused by cancer, with and without metastases, were analyzed, by sex and tumor group. For solid tumors, 66.7% of cancer deaths were registered with metastases as a contributing cause. Proportions varied substantially between tumor groups. Our data support the idea that the majority of deaths from solid tumors are caused by metastases. Thus, a better understanding of the biology of metastases and identification of druggable targets involved in growth at the metastatic site is a promising strategy to reduce cancer mortality.

FCC-hh: The Hadron Collider

Abstract: Particle physics has arrived at an important moment of its history. The discovery of the Higgs boson, with a mass of 125 GeV, completes the matrix of particles and interactions that has constituted the “Standard Model” for several decades. This model is a consistent and predictive theory, which has so far proven successful at describing all phenomena accessible to collider experiments. However, several experimental facts do require the extension of the Standard Model and explanations are needed for observations such as the abundance of matter over antimatter, the striking evidence for dark matter and the non-zero neutrino masses. Theoretical issues such as the hierarchy problem, and, more in general, the dynamical origin of the Higgs mechanism, do likewise point to the existence of physics beyond the Standard Model. This report contains the description of a novel research infrastructure based on a highest-energy hadron collider with a centre-of-mass collision energy of 100 TeV and an integrated luminosity of at least a factor of 5 larger than the HL-LHC. It will extend the current energy frontier by almost an order of magnitude. The mass reach for direct discovery will reach several tens of TeV, and allow, for example, to produce new particles whose existence could be indirectly exposed by precision measurements during the earlier preceding e+e– collider phase. This collider will also precisely measure the Higgs self-coupling and thoroughly explore the dynamics of electroweak symmetry breaking at the TeV scale, to elucidate the nature of the electroweak phase transition. WIMPs as thermal dark matter candidates will be discovered, or ruled out. As a single project, this particle collider infrastructure will serve the world-wide physics community for about 25 years and, in combination with a lepton collider (see FCC conceptual design report volume 2), will provide a research tool until the end of the 21st century. Collision energies beyond 100 TeV can be considered when using high-temperature superconductors. The European Strategy for Particle Physics (ESPP) update 2013 stated “To stay at the forefront of particle physics, Europe needs to be in a position to propose an ambitious post-LHC accelerator project at CERN by the time of the next Strategy update”. The FCC study has implemented the ESPP recommendation by developing a long-term vision for an “accelerator project in a global context”. This document describes the detailed design and preparation of a construction project for a post-LHC circular energy frontier collider “in collaboration with national institutes, laboratories and universities worldwide”, and enhanced by a strong participation of industrial partners. Now, a coordinated preparation effort can be based on a core of an ever-growing consortium of already more than 135 institutes worldwide. The technology for constructing a high-energy circular hadron collider can be brought to the technology readiness level required for constructing within the coming ten years through a focused R&D programme. The FCC-hh concept comprises in the baseline scenario a power-saving, low-temperature superconducting magnet system based on an evolution of the Nb3Sn technology pioneered at the HL-LHC, an energy-efficient cryogenic refrigeration infrastructure based on a neon-helium (Nelium) light gas mixture, a high-reliability and low loss cryogen distribution infrastructure based on Invar, high-power distributed beam transfer using superconducting elements and local magnet energy recovery and re-use technologies that are already gradually introduced at other CERN accelerators. On a longer timescale, high-temperature superconductors can be developed together with industrial partners to achieve an even more energy efficient particle collider or to reach even higher collision energies.The re-use of the LHC and its injector chain, which also serve for a concurrently running physics programme, is an essential lever to come to an overall sustainable research infrastructure at the energy frontier. Strategic R&D for FCC-hh aims at minimising construction cost and energy consumption, while maximising the socio-economic impact. It will mitigate technology-related risks and ensure that industry can benefit from an acceptable utility. Concerning the implementation, a preparatory phase of about eight years is both necessary and adequate to establish the project governance and organisation structures, to build the international machine and experiment consortia, to develop a territorial implantation plan in agreement with the host-states’ requirements, to optimise the disposal of land and underground volumes, and to prepare the civil engineering project. Such a large-scale, international fundamental research infrastructure, tightly involving industrial partners and providing training at all education levels, will be a strong motor of economic and societal development in all participating nations. The FCC study has implemented a set of actions towards a coherent vision for the world-wide high-energy and particle physics community, providing a collaborative framework for topically complementary and geographically well-balanced contributions. This conceptual design report lays the foundation for a subsequent infrastructure preparatory and technical design phase.

FCC Physics Opportunities: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 1

Abstract: We review the physics opportunities of the Future Circular Collider, covering its e+e-, pp, ep and heavy ion programmes. We describe the measurement capabilities of each FCC component, addressing the study of electroweak, Higgs and strong interactions, the top quark and flavour, as well as phenomena beyond the Standard Model. We highlight the synergy and complementarity of the different colliders, which will contribute to a uniquely coherent and ambitious research programme, providing an unmatchable combination of precision and sensitivity to new physics.

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Abstract: Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities1,2. This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity3,4,5,6. Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

Stem cell-associated heterogeneity in Glioblastoma results from intrinsic tumor plasticity shaped by the microenvironment.

Abstract: The identity and unique capacity of cancer stem cells (CSC) to drive tumor growth and resistance have been challenged in brain tumors. Here we report that cells expressing CSC-associated cell membrane markers in Glioblastoma (GBM) do not represent a clonal entity defined by distinct functional properties and transcriptomic profiles, but rather a plastic state that most cancer cells can adopt. We show that phenotypic heterogeneity arises from non-hierarchical, reversible state transitions, instructed by the microenvironment and is predictable by mathematical modeling. Although functional stem cell properties were similar in vitro, accelerated reconstitution of heterogeneity provides a growth advantage in vivo, suggesting that tumorigenic potential is linked to intrinsic plasticity rather than CSC multipotency. The capacity of any given cancer cell to reconstitute tumor heterogeneity cautions against therapies targeting CSC-associated membrane epitopes. Instead inherent cancer cell plasticity emerges as a novel relevant target for treatment.

Maternal and fetal genetic effects on birth weight and their relevance to cardio-metabolic risk factors

Abstract: Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.

Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis provides information on the relative importance of model input parameters and assumptions. It is distinct from uncertainty analysis, which addresses the question ‘How uncertain is the prediction?’ Uncertainty analysis needs to map what a model does when selected input assumptions and parameters are left free to vary over their range of existence, and this is equally true of a sensitivity analysis. Despite this, many uncertainty and sensitivity analyses still explore the input space moving along one-dimensional corridors leaving space of the input factors mostly unexplored. Our extensive systematic literature review shows that many highly cited papers (42% in the present analysis) fail the elementary requirement to properly explore the space of the input factors. The results, while discipline-dependent, point to a worrying lack of standards and recognized good practices. We end by exploring possible reasons for this problem, and suggest some guidelines for proper use of the methods.

New genetic signals for lung function highlight pathways and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associations across multiple ancestries

Abstract: Reduced lung function predicts mortality and is key to the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In a genome-wide association study in 400,102 individuals of European ancestry, we define 279 lung function signals, 139 of which are new. In combination, these variants strongly predict COPD in independent populations. Furthermore, the combined effect of these variants showed generalizability across smokers and never smokers, and across ancestral groups. We highlight biological pathways, known and potential drug targets for COPD and, in phenome-wide association studies, autoimmune-related and other pleiotropic effects of lung function-associated variants. This new genetic evidence has potential to improve future preventive and therapeutic strategies for COPD.

Association of Gestational Weight Gain With Adverse Maternal and Infant Outcomes

Abstract: Importance Both low and high gestational weight gain have been associated with adverse maternal and infant outcomes, but optimal gestational weight gain remains uncertain and not well defined for all prepregnancy weight ranges. Objectives To examine the association of ranges of gestational weight gain with risk of adverse maternal and infant outcomes and estimate optimal gestational weight gain ranges across prepregnancy body mass index categories. Design, Setting, and Participants Individual participant-level meta-analysis using data from 196 670 participants within 25 cohort studies from Europe and North America (main study sample). Optimal gestational weight gain ranges were estimated for each prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) category by selecting the range of gestational weight gain that was associated with lower risk for any adverse outcome. Individual participant-level data from 3505 participants within 4 separate hospital-based cohorts were used as a validation sample. Data were collected between 1989 and 2015. The final date of follow-up was December 2015. Exposures Gestational weight gain. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome termedany adverse outcomewas defined as the presence of 1 or more of the following outcomes: preeclampsia, gestational hypertension, gestational diabetes, cesarean delivery, preterm birth, and small or large size for gestational age at birth. Results Of the 196 670 women (median age, 30.0 years [quartile 1 and 3, 27.0 and 33.0 years] and 40 937 were white) included in the main sample, 7809 (4.0%) were categorized at baseline as underweight (BMI Conclusions and Relevance In this meta-analysis of pooled individual participant data from 25 cohort studies, the risk for adverse maternal and infant outcomes varied by gestational weight gain and across the range of prepregnancy weights. The estimates of optimal gestational weight gain may inform prenatal counseling; however, the optimal gestational weight gain ranges had limited predictive value for the outcomes assessed.

Role of maternal age and pregnancy history in risk of miscarriage: prospective register based study

Abstract: Objectives To estimate the burden of miscarriage in the Norwegian population and to evaluate the associations with maternal age and pregnancy history. Design Prospective register based study. Setting Medical Birth Register of Norway, the Norwegian Patient Register, and the induced abortion register. Participants All Norwegian women that were pregnant between 2009-13. Main outcome measure Risk of miscarriage according to the woman’s age and pregnancy history estimated by logistic regression. Results There were 421 201 pregnancies during the study period. The risk of miscarriage was lowest in women aged 25-29 (10%), and rose rapidly after age 30, reaching 53% in women aged 45 and over. There was a strong recurrence risk of miscarriage, with age adjusted odds ratios of 1.54 (95% confidence interval 1.48 to 1.60) after one miscarriage, 2.21 (2.03 to 2.41) after two, and 3.97 (3.29 to 4.78) after three consecutive miscarriages. The risk of miscarriage was modestly increased if the previous birth ended in a preterm delivery (adjusted odds ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.29), stillbirth (1.30, 1.11 to 1.53), caesarean section (1.16, 1.12 to 1.21), or if the woman had gestational diabetes in the previous pregnancy (1.19, 1.05 to 1.36). The risk of miscarriage was slightly higher in women who themselves had been small for gestational age (1.08, 1.04 to 1.13). Conclusions The risk of miscarriage varies greatly with maternal age, shows a strong pattern of recurrence, and is also increased after some adverse pregnancy outcomes. Miscarriage and other pregnancy complications might share underlying causes, which could be biological conditions or unmeasured common risk factors.

Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis

Abstract: There is now an extensive literature on the question of how individual-level factors affect climate change perceptions, showing that socio-political variables, notably values, worldviews and political orientation, are key factors alongside demographic variables. Yet little is known about cross-national differences in these effects, as most studies have been conducted in a single or small number of countries and cross-study comparisons are difficult due to different conceptualisations of key climate change dimensions. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (n = 44,387), we examine how key socio-political and demographic factors are associated with climate change perception across 22 European countries and Israel. We show that human values and political orientation are important predictors of climate change beliefs and concern, as are the demographics of gender, age, and education. Certain associations with climate change perceptions, such as the ones for the self-transcendence versus self-enhancement value dimension, political orientation, and education, are more consistent across countries than for gender and age. However, even if the direction of the associations are to a large extent consistent, the sizes of the effects are not. We demonstrate that the sizes of the effects are generally smaller in Central and Eastern European countries, and that some demographic effects are larger in Northern European as compared to Western European countries. This suggests that findings from one country do not always generalize to other national contexts.

Maternal body mass index, gestational weight gain and the risk of overweight and obesity across childhood: An individual participant data meta-analysis

Abstract: Background: Maternal obesity and excessive gestational weight gain may have persistent effects on offspring fat development. However, it remains unclear whether these risks differ by severity of obesity, and whether these effects are restricted to the extremes of maternal body mass index (BMI) and gestational weight gain. We aimed to assess the separate and combined associations of maternal BMI and gestational weight gain with the risk of overweight/obesity throughout childhood, and their population impact. Methods and Findings: We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of data from 162,129 mothers and children from 37 pregnancy and birth cohort studies from Europe, North-America and Australia. We assessed the individual and combined associations of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain, both in clinical categories and across their full ranges with the risks of overweight/obesity in early- (2.0-5.0 years), mid- (5.0-10.0 years) and late childhood (10.0-18.0 years), using multilevel binary logistic regression models with a random intercept at cohort level adjusted for maternal socio-demographic and life style related characteristics. We observed that a higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain both in clinical categories and across their full ranges were associated with higher risks of childhood overweight/obesity, with the strongest effects in late childhood (Odds Ratios (OR) for overweight/obesity in early-, mid- and late childhood, respectively: 1.66 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.56, 1.78), OR 1.91 (95% CI: 1.85, 1.98), and OR 2.28 (95% CI: 2.08, 2.50) for maternal overweight, OR 2.43 (95% CI: 2.24, 2.64), OR 3.12 (95% CI: 2.98, 3.27), and OR 4.47 (95% CI: 3.99, 5.23) for maternal obesity, and OR 1.39 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.49), OR 1.55 (95% CI: 1.49, 1.60), and 1.72 (95% CI: 1.56, 1.91) for excessive gestational weight gain. The proportions of childhood overweight/obesity prevalence attributable to maternal overweight, maternal obesity and excessive gestational weight gain ranged from 10.2 to 21.6%. Relative to the effect of maternal BMI, excessive gestational weight gain only slightly increased the risk of childhood overweight/obesity within each clinical BMI category (P-values for interactions of maternal BMI with gestational weight gain: p=0.038, p<0.001 and p=0.637, in early-, mid- and late childhood, respectively). Limitations of this study include the self-report of maternal BMI and gestational weight gain for some of the cohorts, and the potential of residual confounding. Also, as this study only included participants from Europe, North-America and Australia, results need to be interpreted with caution with respect to other populations. Conclusions: In this study, higher maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and gestational weight gain were associated with an increased risk of childhood overweight/obesity, with the strongest effects at later ages. The additional effect of gestational weight gain in women who are overweight or obese before pregnancy is small. Given the large population impact, future intervention trials aiming to reduce the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity should focus on maternal weight status before pregnancy, in addition to weight gain during pregnancy.

No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era

Abstract: Earth’s climate history is often understood by breaking it down into constituent climatic epochs1. Over the Common Era (the past 2,000 years) these epochs, such as the Little Ice Age2–4, have been characterized as having occurred at the same time across extensive spatial scales5. Although the rapid global warming seen in observations over the past 150 years does show nearly global coherence6, the spatiotemporal coherence of climate epochs earlier in the Common Era has yet to be robustly tested. Here we use global palaeoclimate reconstructions for the past 2,000 years, and find no evidence for preindustrial globally coherent cold and warm epochs. In particular, we find that the coldest epoch of the last millennium—the putative Little Ice Age—is most likely to have experienced the coldest temperatures during the fifteenth century in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, during the seventeenth century in northwestern Europe and southeastern North America, and during the mid-nineteenth century over most of the remaining regions. Furthermore, the spatial coherence that does exist over the preindustrial Common Era is consistent with the spatial coherence of stochastic climatic variability. This lack of spatiotemporal coherence indicates that preindustrial forcing was not sufficient to produce globally synchronous extreme temperatures at multidecadal and centennial timescales. By contrast, we find that the warmest period of the past two millennia occurred during the twentieth century for more than 98 per cent of the globe. This provides strong evidence that anthropogenic global warming is not only unparalleled in terms of absolute temperatures5, but also unprecedented in spatial consistency within the context of the past 2,000 years.