Showing papers by "University of East Anglia published in 2006"

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

Abstract: A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.

Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850

Abstract: [1] The historical surface temperature data set HadCRUT provides a record of surface temperature trends and variability since 1850. A new version of this data set, HadCRUT3, has been produced, benefiting from recent improvements to the sea surface temperature data set which forms its marine component, and from improvements to the station records which provide the land data. A comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates has been derived to accompany the data: Estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages have all been made. Since the mid twentieth century the uncertainties in global and hemispheric mean temperatures are small, and the temperature increase greatly exceeds its uncertainty. In earlier periods the uncertainties are larger, but the temperature increase over the twentieth century is still significantly larger than its uncertainty.

Public Views on Climate Change: European and USA Perspectives

Abstract: If uncontrolled, human influences on the climate system may generate changes that will endanger various aspects of life on Earth. The precise implications of the scientific claims about climate change, and the extent to which they pose dangers to various populations, are becoming intensely debated at many levels in relation to policy. How `danger' is interpreted will ultimately affect which actions are taken. In this paper, we examine how climate change is conceptualised by publics in Europe and in the USA. Although there is widespread concern about climate change, it is of secondary importance in comparison to other issues in people's daily lives. Most individuals relate to climate change through personal experience, knowledge, the balance of benefits and costs, and trust in other societal actors. We analyse these factors through findings from various surveys and studies, which highlight both the distinctiveness and some shared perspectives at a generalised level. We reflect upon these in relation to trust and responsibility for climate change action, and risk communication, supporting the call for discourses about climate change to also be situated in people's locality, as a means of increasing its saliency.

A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK

Abstract: A probabilistic framework is presented for combining information from an ensemble of four general circulation models (GCMs), two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, two statistical downscaling techniques, two hydrological model structures, and two sets of hydrological model parameters. GCMs were weighted according to an index of reliability for downscaled effective rainfall, a key determinant of low flows in the River Thames. Hydrological model structures were weighted by performance at reproducing annual low-flow series. Weights were also assigned to sets of water resource model (CATCHMOD) parameters using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion. Emission scenarios and downscaling methods were unweighted. A Monte Carlo approach was then used to explore components of uncertainty affecting projections for the River Thames by the 2080s. The resulting cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of low flows were most sensitive to uncertainty in the climate change scenarios and downscaling of different GCMs. Uncertainties due to the hydrological model parameters and emission scenario increase with time but were less important. Abrupt changes in low-flow CDFs were attributed to uncertainties in statistically downscaled summer rainfall. This was linked to different behavior of atmospheric moisture among the chosen GCMs.

Risks and benefits of omega 3 fats for mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To review systematically the evidence for an effect of long chain and shorter chain omega 3 fatty acids on total mortality, cardiovascular events, and cancer. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases searched to February 2002; authors contacted and bibliographies of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) checked to locate studies. REVIEW METHODS: Review of RCTs of omega 3 intake for (3) 6 months in adults (with or without risk factors for cardiovascular disease) with data on a relevant outcome. Cohort studies that estimated omega 3 intake and related this to clinical outcome during at least 6 months were also included. Application of inclusion criteria, data extraction, and quality assessments were performed independently in duplicate. RESULTS: Of 15,159 titles and abstracts assessed, 48 RCTs (36,913 participants) and 41 cohort studies were analysed. The trial results were inconsistent. The pooled estimate showed no strong evidence of reduced risk of total mortality (relative risk 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.03) or combined cardiovascular events (0.95, 0.82 to 1.12) in participants taking additional omega 3 fats. The few studies at low risk of bias were more consistent, but they showed no effect of omega 3 on total mortality (0.98, 0.70 to 1.36) or cardiovascular events (1.09, 0.87 to 1.37). When data from the subgroup of studies of long chain omega 3 fats were analysed separately, total mortality (0.86, 0.70 to 1.04; 138 events) and cardiovascular events (0.93, 0.79 to 1.11) were not clearly reduced. Neither RCTs nor cohort studies suggested increased risk of cancer with a higher intake of omega 3 (trials: 1.07, 0.88 to 1.30; cohort studies: 1.02, 0.87 to 1.19), but clinically important harm could not be excluded. CONCLUSION: Long chain and shorter chain omega 3 fats do not have a clear effect on total mortality, combined cardiovascular events, or cancer.

Trends in Total and Extreme South American Rainfall in 1960–2000 and Links with Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract: A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as well as the extremes. Maps of trends in the 12 rainfall indices showed large regions of coherent change, with many stations showing statistically significant changes in some of the indices. The pattern of trends for the extremes was generally the same as that for total annual rainfall, with a change to wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern Peru and the region of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern and central Argentina. A decrease was observed in southern Peru and southern Chile, with the latter showing significant decreases in many indices. A canonical correlation analysis between each of the indices and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) revealed two large-scale patterns that have contributed to the observed trends in the rainfall indices. A coupled pattern with ENSO-like SST loadings and rainfall loadings showing similarities with the pattern of the observed trend reveals that the change to a generally more negative Southern Oscillation index (SOI) has had an important effect on regional rainfall trends. A significant decrease in many of the rainfall indices at several stations in southern Chile and Argentina can be explained by a canonical pattern reflecting a weakening of the continental trough leading to a southward shift in storm tracks. This latter signal is a change that has been seen at similar latitudes in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. A similar analysis was carried out for eastern Brazil using gridded indices calculated from 354 stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database. The observed trend toward wetter conditions in the southwest and drier conditions in the northeast could again be explained by changes in ENSO.

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

Abstract: The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 degrees C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1 mg Chlm(-3). Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infliximab for the treatment of pyoderma gangrenosum: a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial

Abstract: Background: Pyoderma gangrenosum (PG) is a chronic ulcerating skin condition that often occurs in association with inflammatory bowel disease. There have been a number of reports of PG responding to infliximab, a monoclonal antibody against tumour necrosis factor α. Aim: In the first randomised placebo controlled trial of any drug for the treatment of PG, we have studied the role of infliximab in this disorder. Subjects: Patients 18 years of age or older with a clinical diagnosis of PG were invited to take part. Methods: Patients were randomised to receive an infusion of infliximab at 5 mg/kg or placebo at week 0. Patients were then assessed at week 2 and non-responders were offered open labelled infliximab. The primary end point was clinical improvement at week 2, with secondary end points being remission and improvement at week 6. Results: Thirty patients were entered into the study. After randomisation, 13 patients received infliximab and 17 patients received placebo. At week 2, significantly more patients in the infliximab group had improved (46% (6/13)) compared with the placebo group (6% (1/17); p = 0.025). Overall, 29 patients received infliximab with 69% (20/29) demonstrating a beneficial clinical response. Remission rate at week 6 was 21% (6/29). There was no response in 31% (9/29) of patients. Conclusions: This study has demonstrated that infliximab at a dose of 5 mg/kg is superior to placebo in the treatment of PG. Open label treatment with infliximab also produced promising results. Infliximab treatment should be considered in patients with PG.

The genome of Rhizobium leguminosarum has recognizable core and accessory components

Abstract: Rhizobium leguminosarum is an α-proteobacterial N2-fixing symbiont of legumes that has been the subject of more than a thousand publications. Genes for the symbiotic interaction with plants are well studied, but the adaptations that allow survival and growth in the soil environment are poorly understood. We have sequenced the genome of R. leguminosarum biovar viciae strain 3841. The 7.75 Mb genome comprises a circular chromosome and six circular plasmids, with 61% G+C overall. All three rRNA operons and 52 tRNA genes are on the chromosome; essential protein-encoding genes are largely chromosomal, but most functional classes occur on plasmids as well. Of the 7,263 protein-encoding genes, 2,056 had orthologs in each of three related genomes (Agrobacterium tumefaciens, Sinorhizobium meliloti, and Mesorhizobium loti), and these genes were over-represented in the chromosome and had above average G+C. Most supported the rRNA-based phylogeny, confirming A. tumefaciens to be the closest among these relatives, but 347 genes were incompatible with this phylogeny; these were scattered throughout the genome but were over-represented on the plasmids. An unexpectedly large number of genes were shared by all three rhizobia but were missing from A. tumefaciens. Overall, the genome can be considered to have two main components: a 'core', which is higher in G+C, is mostly chromosomal, is shared with related organisms, and has a consistent phylogeny; and an 'accessory' component, which is sporadic in distribution, lower in G+C, and located on the plasmids and chromosomal islands. The accessory genome has a different nucleotide composition from the core despite a long history of coexistence.

Clustering Rules: A Comparison of Partitioning and Hierarchical Clustering Algorithms

Abstract: Previous research has resulted in a number of different algorithms for rule discovery. Two approaches discussed here, the ‘all-rules’ algorithm and multi-objective metaheuristics, both result in the production of a large number of partial classification rules, or ‘nuggets’, for describing different subsets of the records in the class of interest. This paper describes the application of a number of different clustering algorithms to these rules, in order to identify similar rules and to better understand the data.

Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia

Abstract: [1] Changes in indices of climate extremes are studied on the basis of daily series of temperature and precipitation observations from 116 meteorological stations in central and south Asia. Averaged over all stations, the indices of temperature extremes indicate warming of both the cold tail and the warm tail of the distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature between 1961 and 2000. For precipitation, most regional indices of wet extremes show little change in this period as a result of low spatial trend coherence with mixed positive and negative station trends. Relative to the changes in the total amounts, there is a slight indication of disproportionate changes in the precipitation extremes. Stations with near-complete data for the longer period of 1901–2000 suggest that the recent trends in extremes of minimum temperature are consistent with long-term trends, whereas the recent trends in extremes of maximum temperature are part of multidecadal climate variability.

The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK

Abstract: 1. Evidence-based policy requires researchers to provide the answers to ecological questions that are of interest to policy makers. To find out what those questions are in the UK, representatives from 28 organizations involved in policy, together with scientists from 10 academic institutions, were asked to generate a list of questions from their organizations. 2. During a 2-day workshop the initial list of 1003 questions generated from consulting at least 654 policy makers and academics was used as a basis for generating a short list of 100 questions of significant policy relevance. Short-listing was decided on the basis of the preferences of the representatives from the policy-led organizations. 3. The areas covered included most major issues of environmental concern in the UK, including agriculture, marine fisheries, climate change, ecosystem function and land management. 4. The most striking outcome was the preference for general questions rather than narrow ones. The reason is that policy is driven by broad issues rather than specific ones. In contrast, scientists are frequently best equipped to answer specific questions. This means that it may be necessary to extract the underpinning specific question before researchers can proceed. 5. Synthesis and applications. Greater communication between policy makers and scientists is required in order to ensure that applied ecologists are dealing with issues in a way that can feed into policy. It is particularly important that applied ecologists emphasize the generic value of their work wherever possible.

Regional climate impacts of the Southern Annular Mode

Abstract: [1] Previous work on the influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on surface climate has focused mainly on individual countries. In this study we use station observations of temperature and rainfall to identify the influence of the SAM on land regions over the whole of the Southern Hemisphere. We demonstrate that the positive phase of the SAM is associated with a significant cooling over Antarctica and much of Australia, and a significant warming over the Antarctic Peninsula, Argentina, Tasmania and the south of New Zealand. The positive phase of the SAM is also associated with anomalously dry conditions over southern South America, New Zealand and Tasmania, due to the southward shift of the stormtrack; and to anomalously wet conditions over much of Australia and South Africa. These influences on populated regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have implications for weather and seasonal forecasting, and for future climate change.

Does tomorrow ever come? Disaster narrative and public perceptions of climate change

Abstract: The film The Day After Tomorrow depicts the abrupt and catastrophic transformation of the Earth’s climate into a new ice age, playing upon the uncertainty surrounding a possible North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (Gulf Stream) shutdown. This paper investigates the impact of the film on people’s perception of climate change through a survey of filmgoers in the UK. Analysis focuses on four issues: the likelihood of extreme impacts; concern over climate change versus other global problems; motivation to take action; and responsibility for the problem of climate change. It finds that seeing the film, at least in the short term, changed people’s attitudes; viewers were significantly more concerned about climate change, and about other environmental risks. However, while the film increased anxiety about environmental risks, viewers experienced difficulty in distinguishing science fact from dramatized science fiction. Their belief in the likelihood of extreme events as a result of climate change was actually reduced. Following the film, many viewers expressed strong motivation to act on climate change. However, although the film may have sensitized viewers and motivated them to act, the public do not have information on what action they can take to mitigate climate change.

Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901–2000

Abstract: [1] We analyze century-long daily temperature and precipitation records for stations in Europe west of 60°E. A set of climatic indices derived from the daily series, mainly focusing on extremes, is defined. Linear trends in these indices are assessed over the period 1901–2000. Average trends, for 75 stations mostly representing Europe west of 20°E, show a warming for all temperature indices. Winter has, on average, warmed more (∼1.0°C/100 yr) than summer (∼0.8°C), both for daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures. Overall, the warming of TX in winter was stronger in the warm tail than in the cold tail (1.6 and 1.5°C for 98th and 95th, but ∼1.0°C for 2nd, 5th and 10th percentiles). There are, however, large regional differences in temperature trend patterns. For summer, there is a tendency for stronger warming, both for TX and TN, in the warm than in the cold tail only in parts of central Europe. Winter precipitation totals, averaged over 121 European stations north of 40°N, have increased significantly by ∼12% per 100 years. Trends in 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles of daily winter precipitation have been similar. No overall long-term trend occurred in summer precipitation totals, but there is an overall weak (statistically insignificant and regionally dependent) tendency for summer precipitation to have become slightly more intense but less common. Data inhomogeneities and relative sparseness of station density in many parts of Europe preclude more robust conclusions. It is of importance that new methods are developed for homogenizing daily data.

The Brief Core Schema Scales (BCSS): psychometric properties and associations with paranoia and grandiosity in non-clinical and psychosis samples

Abstract: Background. Traditional instruments that measure self-esteem may not relate directly to the schema construct as outlined in recent cognitive models. The Brief Core Schema Scales (BCSS) aim to provide a theoretically coherent self-report assessment of schemata concerning self and others in psychosis. The scales assess four dimensions of self and other evaluation: negative-self, positive-self, negative-other, positive-other.Method. We analysed the psychometric properties of the BCSS using a sample of 754 students recruited by email and 252 people with psychosis recruited as part of a trial of cognitive therapy. We report the internal consistency, stability and the factor structure of the scale, and the association of the BCSS with measures of self-esteem and with symptoms of paranoia and grandiosity.Results. The BCSS have good psychometric properties and have more independence from mood than the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Schedule. People with chronic psychosis reported extreme negative evaluations of both self and others on these scales, but their levels of self-esteem and positive evaluations of self and others were similar to the student sample.Conclusions. Extreme negative evaluations of self and others appear to be characteristic of the appraisals of people with chronic psychosis, and are associated with symptoms of grandiosity and paranoia in the non-clinical population. The BCSS may provide a more useful measure of schemata about self and others than traditional measures of self-esteem.

Clinical, microbiological, and immunological effects of fructo-oligosaccharide in patients with Crohn’s disease

Abstract: Background and aims: The intestinal microbiota play a pivotal role in the inflammation associated with Crohn’s disease through their interaction with the mucosal immune system. Some bifidobacteria species are immunoregulatory and induce increased dendritic cell interleukin 10 (IL-10) release in vitro. Fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) increase faecal and mucosal bifidobacteria in healthy volunteers. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of FOS administration on disease activity, bifidobacteria concentrations, and mucosal dendritic cell function in patients with moderately active Crohn’s disease. Patients and methods: Ten patients with active ileocolonic Crohn’s disease received 15 g of FOS for three weeks. Disease activity was measured using the Harvey Bradshaw index. Faecal and mucosal bifidobacteria were quantified by fluorescence in situ hybridisation, and mucosal dendritic cell IL-10 and Toll-like receptor (TLR) expression were assessed by flow cytometry of dissociated rectal biopsies. Results: FOS induced a significant reduction in the Harvey Bradshaw index from 9.8 (SD 3.1) to 6.9 (3.4) (p 10 to 9.4 (0.9) log 10 cells/g dry faeces (p Conclusions: FOS supplementation increases faecal bifidobacteria concentrations and modifies mucosal dendritic cell function. This novel therapeutic strategy appears to decrease Crohn’s disease activity in a small open label trial and therefore warrants further investigation.