University of East Anglia

About: University of East Anglia is a education organization based out in Norwich, Norfolk, United Kingdom. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Climate change. The organization has 13250 authors who have published 37504 publications receiving 1669060 citations. The organization is also known as: UEA.

Body Fat Distribution and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Men and Women in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk Cohort A Population-Based Prospective Study

Abstract: Background— Body fat distribution has been cross-sectionally associated with atherosclerotic disease risk factors, but the prospective relation with coronary heart disease remains uncertain. Methods and Results— We examined the prospective relation between fat distribution indices and coronary heart disease among 24 508 men and women 45 to 79 years of age using proportional hazards regression. During a mean 9.1 years of follow-up, 1708 men and 892 women developed coronary heart disease. The risk for developing subsequent coronary heart disease increased continuously across the range of waist-hip ratio. Hazard ratios (95% CI) of the top versus bottom fifth of waist-hip ratio were 1.55 (1.28 to 1.73) in men and 1.91 (1.44 to 2.54) in women after adjustment for body mass index and other coronary heart disease risk factors. Hazard ratios increased with waist circumference, but risk estimates for waist circumference without hip circumference adjustment were lower by 10% to 18%. After adjustment for waist circu...

The identification of 100 ecological questions of high policy relevance in the UK

Abstract: 1. Evidence-based policy requires researchers to provide the answers to ecological questions that are of interest to policy makers. To find out what those questions are in the UK, representatives from 28 organizations involved in policy, together with scientists from 10 academic institutions, were asked to generate a list of questions from their organizations. 2. During a 2-day workshop the initial list of 1003 questions generated from consulting at least 654 policy makers and academics was used as a basis for generating a short list of 100 questions of significant policy relevance. Short-listing was decided on the basis of the preferences of the representatives from the policy-led organizations. 3. The areas covered included most major issues of environmental concern in the UK, including agriculture, marine fisheries, climate change, ecosystem function and land management. 4. The most striking outcome was the preference for general questions rather than narrow ones. The reason is that policy is driven by broad issues rather than specific ones. In contrast, scientists are frequently best equipped to answer specific questions. This means that it may be necessary to extract the underpinning specific question before researchers can proceed. 5. Synthesis and applications. Greater communication between policy makers and scientists is required in order to ensure that applied ecologists are dealing with issues in a way that can feed into policy. It is particularly important that applied ecologists emphasize the generic value of their work wherever possible.

The ‘Little Ice Age’: Re-evaluation of an evolving concept

Abstract: Matthews, J.A. and Briffa, K.R., 2005: The 'Little Ice Age': re- evaluation of an evolving concept. Geogr. Ann., 87 A (1): 17-36. ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the develop- ment of the 'Little Ice Age' as a glaciological and cli- matic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. 'Little Ice Age' glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most pre- cisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300-1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. 'Little Ice Age' climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570-1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961-1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their lat- est two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is empha- sized, however, that 'Little Ice Age' glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that 'Little Ice Age' climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier-centred and the climate-centred concepts necessarily en- compass considerable spatial and temporal varia- bility, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30-year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. 'Little Ice Age'-type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven gla- cier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the 'Little Ice Age', which may be viewed as a 'modern analogue' for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty-first century. It is con- cluded that the concept of a 'Little Ice Age' will re- main useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth-atmosphere-ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic re- construction with climate modelling.

A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies

Abstract: This paper describes the development of a weather generator for use in climate impact assessments of agricultural and water system management. The generator produces internally consistent series of meteorological variables including: rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine, as well as derivation of potential evapotranspiration. The system produces series at a daily time resolution, using two stochastic models in series: first, for rainfall which produces an output series which is then used for a second model generating the other variables dependent on rainfall. The series are intended for single sites defined nationally across the UK at a 5km resolution, but can be generated to be representative across small catchments (<1000km2). Scenarios can be generated for the control period (1961-1990) based on observed data, as well as for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) scenarios for three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). Future scenarios are generated by fitting the models to observations which have been perturbed by application of change factors derived from the UKCIP02 mean projected changes in that variable. These change factors are readily updated, as new scenarios become available, and with suitable calibration data the approach could be extended to any geographical region.