University of Exeter

About: University of Exeter is a education organization based out in Exeter, United Kingdom. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Climate change. The organization has 15820 authors who have published 50650 publications receiving 1793046 citations. The organization is also known as: Exeter University & University of the South West of England.

Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

Abstract: Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 °C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

The ABC of physical activity for health: A consensus statement from the British Association of Sport and Exercise Sciences

Abstract: Our understanding of the relationship between physical activity and health is constantly evolving. Therefore, the British Association of Sport and Exercise Sciences convened a panel of experts to review the literature and produce guidelines that health professionals might use. In the ABC of Physical Activity for Health, A is for All healthy adults, B is for Beginners, and C is for Conditioned individuals. All healthy adults aged 18-65 years should aim to take part in at least 150 min of moderate-intensity aerobic activity each week, or at least 75 min of vigorous-intensity aerobic activity per week, or equivalent combinations of moderate- and vigorous-intensity activities. Moderate-intensity activities are those in which heart rate and breathing are raised, but it is possible to speak comfortably. Vigorous-intensity activities are those in which heart rate is higher, breathing is heavier, and conversation is harder. Aerobic activities should be undertaken in bouts of at least 10 min and, ideally, should be performed on five or more days a week. All healthy adults should also perform muscle-strengthening activities on two or more days a week. Weight training, circuit classes, yoga, and other muscle-strengthening activities offer additional health benefits and may help older adults to maintain physical independence. Beginners should work steadily towards meeting the physical activity levels recommended for all healthy adults. Even small increases in activity will bring some health benefits in the early stages and it is important to set achievable goals that provide success, build confidence, and increase motivation. For example, a beginner might be asked to walk an extra 10 min every other day for several weeks to slowly reach the recommended levels of activity for all healthy adults. It is also critical that beginners find activities they enjoy and gain support in becoming more active from family and friends. Conditioned individuals who have met the physical activity levels recommended for all healthy adults for at least 6 months may obtain additional health benefits by engaging in 300 min or more of moderate-intensity aerobic activity per week, or 150 min or more of vigorous-intensity aerobic activity each week, or equivalent combinations of moderate- and vigorous-intensity aerobic activities. Adults who find it difficult to maintain a normal weight and adults with increased risk of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes may in particular benefit from going beyond the levels of activity recommended for all healthy adults and gradually progressing towards meeting the recommendations for conditioned individuals. Physical activity is beneficial to health with or without weight loss, but adults who find it difficult to maintain a normal weight should probably be encouraged to reduce energy intake and minimize time spent in sedentary behaviours to prevent further weight gain. Children and young people aged 5-16 years should accumulate at least 60 min of moderate-to-vigorous-intensity aerobic activity per day, including vigorous-intensity aerobic activities that improve bone density and muscle strength.

World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency

Abstract: 1 Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA 2 School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia 3 Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333, USA 4 African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, 7700, South Africa. 5 The Fletcher School and Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Abstract: . The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

17. Statistical Tools for Simulation Practitioners

Abstract: 17. Statistical Tools for Simulation Practitioners (Statistics: Textbooks and Monographs Series, Vol. 76). By J. P. C. Kleijnen. ISBN 0 8247 73333 0. Dekker, New York, 1987. 448 pp. $83.50.