University of Groningen

About: University of Groningen is a education organization based out in Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Poison control. The organization has 36346 authors who have published 69116 publications receiving 2940370 citations. The organization is also known as: Rijksuniversiteit Groningen & RUG.

Optimal Selection for Direct Mail

Abstract: Direct marketing mail is a growing area of marketing practice, yet the academic journals contain very little research on this topic. The most important issue for direct marketers is how to sample targets from a population for a direct mail campaign. Although some selection methods are described in the literature, there seems to be not a single paper discussing the analytical and statistical aspects involved. The objective of this paper is to introduce a comprehensive methodology for the selection of targets from a mailing list for direct mail. At least theoretically, this methodology leads to more efficient selection procedures than the existing ones. The latter are not based on an optimal selection strategy, whereas we explicitly take the profit function into account. By equating marginal costs and marginal returns we determine which households should receive a mailing in order to maximize expected profit. In the empirical part we show that our methodology has great predictive accuracy and generates higher net returns than traditional approaches.

Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food

Abstract: Provision of food is a prerequisite for the functioning of human society. Cropland where food and feed are grown is the central, limiting resource for food production. The amount of cropland needed depends on population numbers, average food consumption patterns, and output per unit of land. Around the globe, these factors show large differences. We use data from the Food and Agriculture Organization to consistently assess subcontinental dynamics of how much land was needed to supply the prevailing diets during a span of 46 y, from 1961 to 2007. We find that, in most regions, diets became richer while the land needed to feed one person decreased. A decomposition approach is used to quantify the contributions of the main drivers of cropland requirements for food: changes in population, agricultural technology, and diet. We compare the impact of these drivers for different subcontinents and find that potential land savings through yield increases were offset by a combination of population growth and dietary change. The dynamics of the three factors were the largest in developing regions and emerging economies. The results indicate an inverse relationship between the two main drivers behind increased land requirements for food: with socioeconomic development, population growth decreases and, at the same time, diets become richer. In many regions, dietary change may override population growth as major driver behind land requirements for food in the near future.