Showing papers by "University of Reading published in 2015"
TL;DR: From Wichterle’s pioneering work to the most recent hydrogel-based inventions and products on the market, it provides the reader with a detailed introduction to the topic and perspective on further potential developments.
1,788 citations
University of Massachusetts Amherst1, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration2, Université du Québec à Montréal3, Newcastle University4, University of Bern5, Chinese Academy of Sciences6, Rutgers University7, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne8, University of Graz9, University of Reading10, Shanxi University11, University of Alberta12, Environment Canada13
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review important mechanisms that contribute towards elevation-dependent warming, such as snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks, water vapour changes and latent heat release, surface water vapours and radiative flux changes, surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols.
Abstract: There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations.
1,628 citations
TL;DR: It is demonstrated for the first time that increasing colonic propionate prevents weight gain in overweight adult humans.
Abstract: Objective The colonic microbiota ferment dietary fibres, producing short chain fatty acids. Recent evidence suggests that the short chain fatty acid propionate may play an important role in appetite regulation. We hypothesised that colonic delivery of propionate would increase peptide YY (PYY) and glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion in humans, and reduce energy intake and weight gain in overweight adults. Design To investigate whether propionate promotes PYY and GLP-1 secretion, a primary cultured human colonic cell model was developed. To deliver propionate specifically to the colon, we developed a novel inulin-propionate ester. An acute randomised, controlled cross-over study was used to assess the effects of this inulin-propionate ester on energy intake and plasma PYY and GLP-1 concentrations. The long-term effects of inulin-propionate ester on weight gain were subsequently assessed in a randomised, controlled 24-week study involving 60 overweight adults. Results Propionate significantly stimulated the release of PYY and GLP-1 from human colonic cells. Acute ingestion of 10 g inulin-propionate ester significantly increased postprandial plasma PYY and GLP-1 and reduced energy intake. Over 24 weeks, 10 g/day inulin-propionate ester supplementation significantly reduced weight gain, intra-abdominal adipose tissue distribution, intrahepatocellular lipid content and prevented the deterioration in insulin sensitivity observed in the inulin-control group. Conclusions These data demonstrate for the first time that increasing colonic propionate prevents weight gain in overweight adult humans. Trial registration number NCT00750438.
898 citations
University of Reading1, Joint Nature Conservation Committee2, University of Southampton3, University of Sheffield4, University of Oxford5, Imperial College London6, University of Zurich7, Instituto Superior Técnico8, University of York9, University of California, Berkeley10, University College London11, Environmental Change Institute12, Autonomous University of Madrid13
TL;DR: A range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales are identified and biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience ofcosystem functions and the services that they underpin.
Abstract: Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their ‘resilience’) is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.
871 citations
Earth System Research Laboratory1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory2, Georgia Institute of Technology3, University of California, Irvine4, University of Arizona5, Texas A&M University6, University of Reading7, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution8, University of Miami9, California Institute of Technology10, Hanyang University11
TL;DR: The authors surveys the current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions, as well as identifying key gaps and promising future directions.
Abstract: El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Nino events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.
761 citations
TL;DR: Wheat shows high variability in the contents and compositions of beneficial components, with some (including dietary fiber) showing high heritability, so plant breeders should be able to select for enhanced health benefits in addition to increased crop yield.
Abstract: Wheat is the most important staple crop in temperate zones and is in increasing demand in countries undergoing urbanization and industrialization. In addition to being a major source of starch and energy, wheat also provides substantial amounts of a number of components which are essential or beneficial for health, notably protein, vitamins (notably B vitamins), dietary fiber, and phytochemicals. Of these, wheat is a particularly important source of dietary fiber, with bread alone providing 20% of the daily intake in the UK, and well-established relationships between the consumption of cereal dietary fiber and reduced risk of cardio-vascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and forms of cancer (notably colo-rectal cancer). Wheat shows high variability in the contents and compositions of beneficial components, with some (including dietary fiber) showing high heritability. Hence, plant breeders should be able to select for enhanced health benefits in addition to increased crop yield.
715 citations
Wageningen University and Research Centre1, Rutgers University2, Spanish National Research Council3, University of Leeds4, Naturalis5, Institut national de la recherche agronomique6, Michigan State University7, University of Freiburg8, University of California, Berkeley9, University of New England (United States)10, University of Vermont11, University of California, Davis12, National University of Singapore13, Hungarian Academy of Sciences14, University of Göttingen15, Cornell University16, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences17, Stellenbosch University18, Centre national de la recherche scientifique19, Simon Fraser University20, University of Reading21, University of Würzburg22, Plant & Food Research23, University of Giessen24, University of Texas at Austin25, University of Bern26, Hebrew University of Jerusalem27, Lund University28, Federal University of Bahia29
TL;DR: It is shown that, while the contribution of wild bees to crop production is significant, service delivery is restricted to a limited subset of all known bee species, suggesting that cost-effective management strategies to promote crop pollination should target a different set of species than management Strategies to promote threatened bees.
Abstract: There is compelling evidence that more diverse ecosystems deliver greater benefits to people, and these ecosystem services have become a key argument for biodiversity conservation. However, it is unclear how much biodiversity is needed to deliver ecosystem services in a cost-effective way. Here we show that, while the contribution of wild bees to crop production is significant, service delivery is restricted to a limited subset of all known bee species. Across crops, years and biogeographical regions, crop-visiting wild bee communities are dominated by a small number of common species, and threatened species are rarely observed on crops. Dominant crop pollinators persist under agricultural expansion and many are easily enhanced by simple conservation measures, suggesting that cost-effective management strategies to promote crop pollination should target a different set of species than management strategies to promote threatened bees. Conserving the biological diversity of bees therefore requires more than just ecosystem-service-based arguments.
698 citations
Pierre-and-Marie-Curie University1, Max Planck Society2, University of Washington3, Monash University, Clayton campus4, Centre national de la recherche scientifique5, University of Colorado Boulder6, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration7, University of Reading8, University of New South Wales9, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute10, Columbia University11, University of Tokyo12, Met Office13
TL;DR: In this paper, four central research questions -now tractable through advances in models, concepts and observations -were proposed to accelerate future progress in understanding the interactions between clouds, circulation and climate.
Abstract: Our understanding of the interactions between clouds, circulation and climate is limited. Four central research questions — now tractable through advances in models, concepts and observations — are proposed to accelerate future progress.
655 citations
TL;DR: This article reviewed the current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century, with an emphasis on those due to human activity, and discussed the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty.
Abstract: Our current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on those due to human activity. The paper discusses the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty. The effects of increases in the so-called well-mixed greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, appear to be the dominant mechanism. However, there are considerable uncertainties in our estimates of many other forcing mechanisms; those associated with the so-called indirect aerosol forcing (whereby changes in aerosols can impact on cloud properties) may be the most serious, as its climatic effect may be of a similar size as, but opposite sign to, that due to carbon dioxide. The possible role of volcanic eruptions as a natural climate change mechanism is also highlighted.
636 citations
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki1, Centre national de la recherche scientifique2, Wageningen University and Research Centre3, Lund University4, University of Manchester5, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences6, University of Copenhagen7, University of Marburg8, University of Giessen9, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic10, University of Helsinki11, University of Reading12, University of Kent13, University of Vienna14
TL;DR: Intensive agriculture reduces soil biodiversity, making soil food webs less diverse and composed of smaller bodied organisms, and how changes in soil biodiversity due to land-use intensification may threaten the functioning of soil in agricultural production systems is discussed.
Abstract: Soil biodiversity plays a key role in regulating the processes that underpin the delivery of ecosystem goods and services in terrestrial ecosystems. Agricultural intensification is known to change the diversity of individual groups of soil biota, but less is known about how intensification affects biodiversity of the soil food web as a whole, and whether or not these effects may be generalized across regions. We examined biodiversity in soil food webs from grasslands, extensive, and intensive rotations in four agricultural regions across Europe: in Sweden, the UK, the Czech Republic and Greece. Effects of land-use intensity were quantified based on structure and diversity among functional groups in the soil food web, as well as on community-weighted mean body mass of soil fauna. We also elucidate land-use intensity effects on diversity of taxonomic units within taxonomic groups of soil fauna. We found that between regions soil food web diversity measures were variable, but that increasing land-use intensity caused highly consistent responses. In particular, land-use intensification reduced the complexity in the soil food webs, as well as the community-weighted mean body mass of soil fauna. In all regions across Europe, species richness of earthworms, Collembolans, and oribatid mites was negatively affected by increased land-use intensity. The taxonomic distinctness, which is a measure of taxonomic relatedness of species in a community that is independent of species richness, was also reduced by land-use intensification. We conclude that intensive agriculture reduces soil biodiversity, making soil food webs less diverse and composed of smaller bodied organisms. Land-use intensification results in fewer functional groups of soil biota with fewer and taxonomically more closely related species. We discuss how these changes in soil biodiversity due to land-use intensification may threaten the functioning of soil in agricultural production systems.
622 citations
Ocean University of China1, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation2, University of New South Wales3, Hanyang University4, Yonsei University5, Georgia Institute of Technology6, University of Exeter7, University of Paris8, University of Reading9, Pohang University of Science and Technology10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory12, University of Tokyo13
TL;DR: A review of the state of knowledge on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate phenomenon, can be found in this article, where the authors discuss recent advances and insights into how climate change will affect this natural climate varibility cycle.
Abstract: This Review looks at the state of knowledge on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate phenomenon. It discusses recent advances and insights into how climate change will affect this natural climate varibility cycle. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Nino events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Nino. The frequency of extreme La Nina is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Ninos, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.
TL;DR: The authors suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of a particular event.
Abstract: There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.
TL;DR: The present position paper is the most recent in a series produced by the International Life Sciences Institute's European Branch and is co-authored by the speakers from a 2013 workshop led by the Obesity and Diabetes Task Force entitled ‘Low-grade inflammation, a high-grade challenge: biomarkers and modulation by dietary strategies’.
Abstract: The importance of chronic low-grade inflammation in the pathology of numerous age-related chronic conditions is now clear. An unresolved inflammatory response is likely to be involved from the early stages of disease development. The present position paper is the most recent in a series produced by the International Life Sciences Institute's European Branch (ILSI Europe). It is co-authored by the speakers from a 2013 workshop led by the Obesity and Diabetes Task Force entitled ‘Low-grade inflammation, a high-grade challenge: biomarkers and modulation by dietary strategies’. The latest research in the areas of acute and chronic inflammation and cardiometabolic, gut and cognitive health is presented along with the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying inflammation–health/disease associations. The evidence relating diet composition and early-life nutrition to inflammatory status is reviewed. Human epidemiological and intervention data are thus far heavily reliant on the measurement of inflammatory markers in the circulation, and in particular cytokines in the fasting state, which are recognised as an insensitive and highly variable index of tissue inflammation. Potential novel kinetic and integrated approaches to capture inflammatory status in humans are discussed. Such approaches are likely to provide a more discriminating means of quantifying inflammation–health/disease associations, and the ability of diet to positively modulate inflammation and provide the much needed evidence to develop research portfolios that will inform new product development and associated health claims.
University of Ottawa1, University of Calgary2, York University3, University of Reading4, University of Mons5, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ6, Wildlife Preservation Canada7, University of Vermont8, University of Connecticut9, American Museum of Natural History10, University of Alaska Fairbanks11, United States Department of Agriculture12
TL;DR: Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, testing for climate change–related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species’ northern range limits.
Abstract: For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change–related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species’ northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species.
TL;DR: This study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.
Abstract: Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation1, Ocean University of China2, University of New South Wales3, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory4, University of Hawaii5, University of Exeter6, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory7, Centre national de la recherche scientifique8, Monash University, Clayton campus9, University of Reading10
TL;DR: In this paper, an increase in frequency of La Nina events was predicted due to faster land warming relative to the ocean, and a greater chance of them occurring following extreme El Nino events.
Abstract: Extreme La Nina events occur when cold sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific Ocean create a strong temperature gradient to the Maritime continent in the west. This work projects an increase in frequency of La Nina events due to faster land warming relative to the ocean, and a greater chance of them occurring following extreme El Nino events. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation is Earth’s most prominent source of interannual climate variability, alternating irregularly between El Nino and La Nina, and resulting in global disruption of weather patterns, ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture1,2,3,4,5. The 1998–1999 extreme La Nina event that followed the 1997–1998 extreme El Nino event6 switched extreme El Nino-induced severe droughts to devastating floods in western Pacific countries, and vice versa in the southwestern United States4,7. During extreme La Nina events, cold sea surface conditions develop in the central Pacific8,9, creating an enhanced temperature gradient from the Maritime continent to the central Pacific. Recent studies have revealed robust changes in El Nino characteristics in response to simulated future greenhouse warming10,11,12, but how La Nina will change remains unclear. Here we present climate modelling evidence, from simulations conducted for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. 13), for a near doubling in the frequency of future extreme La Nina events, from one in every 23 years to one in every 13 years. This occurs because projected faster mean warming of the Maritime continent than the central Pacific, enhanced upper ocean vertical temperature gradients, and increased frequency of extreme El Nino events are conducive to development of the extreme La Nina events. Approximately 75% of the increase occurs in years following extreme El Nino events, thus projecting more frequent swings between opposite extremes from one year to the next.
University of Copenhagen1, University of California, Berkeley2, University of Massachusetts Amherst3, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute4, Technical University of Denmark5, Pennsylvania State University6, La Trobe University7, Stanford University8, University of Cambridge9, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology10, University of Tartu11, Estonian Biocentre12, University of California, San Francisco13, Washington State University14, University of Porto15, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign16, Carlos III Health Institute17, University of Utah18, Science for Life Laboratory19, Aarhus University20, University College London21, University of Reading22, University of Bristol23, University of Guadalajara24, University of Bologna25, Oregon State University26, University of Paris27, University of Zurich28, St. John's University29, Max Planck Society30, University of California, Irvine31, University of Tarapacá32, University of Toulouse33, Russian Academy of Sciences34, Novosibirsk State University35, Kemerovo State University36, Bashkir State University37, North-Eastern Federal University38, Western Washington University39, Northwest Community College40, University of Western Ontario41, Simon Fraser University42, Laboratory of Molecular Biology43, University of Kansas44, University of California, Davis45, Texas A&M University46, Santa Barbara Museum of Natural History47, Southern Methodist University48
TL;DR: The results suggest that there has been gene flow between some Native Americans from both North and South America and groups related to East Asians and Australo-Melanesians, the latter possibly through an East Asian route that might have included ancestors of modern Aleutian Islanders.
Abstract: How and when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative "Paleoamerican" relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericues and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.
TL;DR: The ERA-Interim/Land dataset as discussed by the authors provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models.
Abstract: ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis data set covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land is the result of a single 32-year simulation with the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) land surface model driven by meteorological forcing from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis and precipitation adjustments based on monthly GPCP v2.1 (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The horizontal resolution is about 80 km and the time frequency is 3-hourly. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim data set, which makes it more suitable for climate studies involving land water resources. The quality of ERA-Interim/Land is assessed by comparing with ground-based and remote sensing observations. In particular, estimates of soil moisture, snow depth, surface albedo, turbulent latent and sensible fluxes, and river discharges are verified against a large number of site measurements. ERA-Interim/Land provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors synthesize formerly dispersed fields of research into an analytical framework, signposting a systems of innovation approach for future studies of social innovation and social entrepreneurship.
Abstract: Corporate social responsibility (CSR) literature suggests CSR initiatives extend beyond meeting the immediate interests of stakeholders of for-profit enterprises, offering the potential to also enhance performance. Growing disillusionment of for-profit business models has drawn attention to social entrepreneurship and social innovation to ease social issues. Adopting a systematic review of relevant research, the article provides collective insights into research linking social innovation with social entrepreneurship, demonstrating growing interest in the area over the last decade. The past 5 years have seen a surge in attention with particular focus on the role of the entrepreneur, networks, systems, institutions, and cross-sectoral partnerships. Based on the findings of the review, the authors synthesize formerly dispersed fields of research into an analytical framework, signposting a “systems of innovation” approach for future studies of social innovation and social entrepreneurship.
TL;DR: While urban pollinator assemblages were more homogeneous across space than those in farmland or nature reserves, there was no significant difference in the numbers of rarer species between the three landscapes.
Abstract: Insect pollinators provide a crucial ecosystem service, but are under threat. Urban areas could be important for pollinators, though their value relative to other habitats is poorly known. We compared pollinator communities using quantified flower-visitation networks in 36 sites (each 1 km2) in three landscapes: urban, farmland and nature reserves. Overall, flower-visitor abundance and species richness did not differ significantly between the three landscape types. Bee abundance did not differ between landscapes, but bee species richness was higher in urban areas than farmland. Hoverfly abundance was higher in farmland and nature reserves than urban sites, but species richness did not differ significantly. While urban pollinator assemblages were more homogeneous across space than those in farmland or nature reserves, there was no significant difference in the numbers of rarer species between the three landscapes. Network-level specialization was higher in farmland than urban sites. Relative to other habitats, urban visitors foraged from a greater number of plant species (higher generality) but also visited a lower proportion of available plant species (higher specialization), both possibly driven by higher urban plant richness. Urban areas are growing, and improving their value for pollinators should be part of any national strategy to conserve and restore pollinators.
TL;DR: A general statistical model is developed that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family, demonstrating that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data.
TL;DR: CBD was found to act upon a number of targets that are linked to neurological therapeutics but that its actions were not consistent with modulation of such targets that would derive a therapeutically beneficial outcome.
Blaise Pascal University1, Institut national de la recherche agronomique2, University of Florida3, University of Bonn4, Goddard Institute for Space Studies5, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation6, International Water Management Institute7, Michigan State University8, Agro ParisTech9, University of Leeds10, CGIAR11, University of Tübingen12, University of Alberta13, International Atomic Energy Agency14, University of Reading15, University of Guelph16, University of Hohenheim17, University of Maryland, College Park18, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research19, Indian Agricultural Research Institute20, Department of Environment and Primary Industries21, Aarhus University22, Rothamsted Research23, Food and Agriculture Organization24, Washington State University25, Wageningen University and Research Centre26, Chinese Academy of Sciences27, International Trademark Association28, United States Department of Agriculture29
TL;DR: It is concluded that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics, and argued that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
Abstract: Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
TL;DR: This paper aims to provide structure to the dialog on transformation, and to reflect on the challenges of social research in this area, by identifying concepts of transformation through a literature review and examined using four analytical criteria.
Abstract: The study of societal transformation in response to environmental change has become established, yet little consensus exists regarding the conceptual basis of transformation. This paper aims to provide structure to the dialog on transformation, and to reflect on the challenges of social research in this area. Concepts of transformation are identified through a literature review, and examined using four analytical criteria. It is found that the term ‘transformation’ is frequently used merely as a metaphor. When transformation is not used as a metaphor, eight concepts are most frequently employed. They differ with respect to (i) system conceptualization, (ii) notions of social consciousness (deliberate/emergent), and (iii) outcome (prescriptive/descriptive). Problem-based research tends to adopt concepts of deliberate transformation with prescriptive outcome, while concepts of emergent transformation with no prescriptive outcome tend to inform descriptive-analytical research. Dialog around the complementarities of different concepts and their empirical testing are priorities for future research.
01 May 2015
TL;DR: This book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in applied mathematics, computer science, engineering, geoscience and other emerging application areas with a general dynamical systems approach.
Abstract: In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in applied mathematics, computer science, engineering, geoscience and other emerging application areas.
Norwegian Institute for Air Research1, University of Oslo2, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis3, University of Reading4, Pierre-and-Marie-Curie University5, Leipzig University6, Met Office7, University of Crete8, Tsinghua University9, Aarhus University10, University of Paris11, Norwegian Meteorological Institute12, Peking University13
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants).
Abstract: . This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.
TL;DR: In this paper, a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8-10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments is presented.
Abstract: The unprecedented availability of 6-hourly data from a multi-model GCM ensemble in the CMIP5 data archive presents the new opportunity to dynamically downscale multiple GCMs to develop high-resolution climate projections relevant to detailed assessment of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts. This enables the development of high resolution projections derived from the same set of models that are used to characterise the range of future climate changes at the global and large-scale, and as assessed in the IPCC AR5. However, the technical and human resource required to dynamically-downscale the full CMIP5 ensemble are significant and not necessary if the aim is to develop scenarios covering a representative range of future climate conditions relevant to a climate change risk assessment. This paper illustrates a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8–10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments. The selection focuses on their suitability across multiple regions—Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. The selection (a) avoids the inclusion of the least realistic models for each region and (b) simultaneously captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible’ (MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and IPSL-CM5B-LR). From the remaining models, we demonstrate a selection methodology which avoids the poorest models by including them in the set only if their exclusion would significantly reduce the range of projections sampled. The result of this process is a set of models suitable for using to generate downscaled climate change information for a consistent multi-regional assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.
University of Aberdeen1, Colorado State University2, Institut de recherche pour le développement3, Wageningen University and Research Centre4, Environment Canada5, AgResearch6, Nagoya University7, University of Brasília8, University of Bristol9, Murdoch University10, Nanjing Agricultural University11, University of Minnesota12, University of Reading13, KIIT University14, University of the Witwatersrand15
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report the state-of-the-art understanding concerning the biogeochemical cycles and biodiversity in soil, and relate these to the provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services which they underpin.
Abstract: . Soils play a pivotal role in major global biogeochemical cycles (carbon, nutrient, and water), while hosting the largest diversity of organisms on land. Because of this, soils deliver fundamental ecosystem services, and management to change a soil process in support of one ecosystem service can either provide co-benefits to other services or result in trade-offs. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding concerning the biogeochemical cycles and biodiversity in soil, and relate these to the provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem services which they underpin. We then outline key knowledge gaps and research challenges, before providing recommendations for management activities to support the continued delivery of ecosystem services from soils. We conclude that, although soils are complex, there are still knowledge gaps, and fundamental research is still needed to better understand the relationships between different facets of soils and the array of ecosystem services they underpin, enough is known to implement best practices now. There is a tendency among soil scientists to dwell on the complexity and knowledge gaps rather than to focus on what we do know and how this knowledge can be put to use to improve the delivery of ecosystem services. A significant challenge is to find effective ways to share knowledge with soil managers and policy makers so that best management can be implemented. A key element of this knowledge exchange must be to raise awareness of the ecosystems services underpinned by soils and thus the natural capital they provide. We know enough to start moving in the right direction while we conduct research to fill in our knowledge gaps. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be for soil scientists to work together with policy makers and land managers to put soils at the centre of environmental policy making and land management decisions.
Erasmus University Rotterdam1, VU University Medical Center2, University of Porto3, University of Freiburg4, National University of Colombia5, Old Dominion University6, Aarhus University7, Centre national de la recherche scientifique8, Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital9, Imperial College London10, Tampere University of Technology11, University of Paris12, Magna Græcia University13, University of Reading14, University of Copenhagen15
TL;DR: A grand challenge to objectively compare algorithms based on a clinically representative multi-center data set of three diagnostic groups, finding the best performances were achieved using feature extraction based on voxel-based morphometry or a combination of features that included volume, cortical thickness, shape and intensity.
TL;DR: The authors showed that the relationship between the global mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface air temperature change is nonlinear in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs).
Abstract: Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface air temperature change is nonlinear in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined, the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative (i.e., the effective climate sensitivity increases) as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM mean, approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the tropics (30°N–30°S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific, where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving p...