Urban Institute

About: Urban Institute is a nonprofit organization based out in Washington D.C., District of Columbia, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Medicaid & Population. The organization has 927 authors who have published 2330 publications receiving 86426 citations.

The potential impact of the Great Recession on future retirement incomes

Abstract: This study uses DYNASIM3, the Urban Institute’s dynamic microsimulation model, to examine the long-run effects of the Great Recession on the future retirement incomes of working-age individuals in 2008. It compares a baseline scenario that incorporates the historic and projected effects of high unemployment and lower wages from the recession with a no-recession scenario that assumes the recession had not occurred. The results show that the recession will reduce average annual incomes at age 70 by 4.3 percent, or $2,300 per person. This drop results almost entirely from the anemic wage growth that occurred during the recession, which the model assumes will permanently reduce future wages. Employment declines will have little effect on future aggregate retirement incomes because most workers remained employed during the recession and the losses that occurred are generally inconsequential when averaged over an entire career. Retirement incomes will fall most for high-socioeconomic-status groups, who have the most to lose, but relative income losses will not vary much across groups. Those workers who were youngest when the recession began will be hit hard. They are most likely to have lost their jobs and the impact of lower wages will accumulate over much of their working lives. But retirement incomes will also fall substantially for those in their late fifties in 2008, because the drop in the economy-wide average wage will lower the index factor in the Social Security benefit formula, permanently reducing their annual benefits. Also, many workers who lost jobs late in life will never become reemployed.

Pathways after Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?

Abstract: We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default – from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with whether a borrower behind on mortgage payments receives a legal notice of foreclosure, and with what ultimately happens to the borrower and property. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: the terms of the loan; the borrower’s credit history; current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior; the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.

The American Community Survey and Health Insurance Coverage Estimates: Possibilities and Challenges for Health Policy Researchers

Abstract: The American Community Survey (ACS) is poised to evolve from an unknown entity among the health service research community to one of the most critical data sources for state and local health insurance coverage policy researchers over the next few years. The ACS will be an important new resource for health policy research, with significant advantages over the Current Population Survey (CPS), the major U.S. survey currently used for this purpose (Blewett et al. 2004). However, there are significant challenges associated with using the ACS for health policy analysis that will need to be addressed. The U.S. Census Bureau has been rolling out the new ACS over the past decade. The ACS was designed to replace the information that was traditionally gathered every 10 years as part of the decennial census “long form” and to improve intercensal estimates. The ACS is conducted every year and includes a wider range of content than the long form, and began including health insurance coverage in 2008 with the first health insurance estimates to be released in 2009. In contrast to most national surveys, the ACS will provide estimates at not only the state level, but also at substate levels of geography such as cities, counties, and even census tract levels (U.S. Census Bureau 2006a). In this paper, we highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the ACS relative to the CPS for use in health policy research.

Policy implications of an annuity approach to integrating long-term care financing and retirement income.

Abstract: The authors consider an integrated income and disability annuity as an alternative framework for long-term care financing, show that pooling disability and mortality risks can reduce the need for medical underwriting, and discuss private and public implications. Data from the National Mortality Followback Survey of 1986 were used to simulate current underwriting and minimal underwriting, excluding only those already eligible for benefits. Remaining disability, life expectancy, and premiums are compared under both underwriting assumptions. Under minimal underwriting, 98% of persons age 65 would be eligible to purchase disability protection through an integrated annuity, versus 77% under current underwriting. Premiums for both the income and disability components were lower with minimal underwriting. Combining income and disability protection may be able to expand private markets for long-term care financing beyond what appears possible in the long-term care insurance market. Public policy should avoid the distortion of choices created by focusing exclusively on an insurance model.

Charitable Expectations Of Nonprofit Hospitals: Lessons From Maryland

Abstract: Little is known about nonprofit hospitals’ community benefit spending other than for charity care. Better accountability is desirable, but critics have focused too narrowly on charity care. Using data from reporting requirements in Maryland similar to federal rules that take effect in 2010, we describe the broad range of community benefit spending in nonprofit hospitals there, which amounted to 7.4 percent of expenses in 2007. Charity care for hospital services accounted for one-third of this amount (payments to physicians for charity patients are reported separately). Hospitals’ community benefit spending varies with local needs, resources, and resource allocation decisions.