Showing papers by "Utrecht University published in 2022"

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Blockchain-Based Fully Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading Strategies for Residential Energy Systems

Abstract: This paper proposes two novel strategies for determining the bilateral trading preferences of households participating in a fully Peer-to-Peer (P2P) local energy market. The first strategy matches between surplus power supply and demand of participants, while the second is based on the distance between them in the network. The impact of bilateral trading preferences on the price and amount of energy traded is assessed for the two strategies. A decentralized fully P2P energy trading market is developed to generate the results in a day-ahead setting. After that, a permissioned blockchain-smart contract platform is used for the implementation of the decentralized P2P trading market on a digital platform. Actual data from a residential neighborhood in the Netherlands, with different varieties of distributed energy resources, is used for the simulations. Results show that in the two strategies, the energy procurement cost and grid interaction of all participants in P2P trading are reduced compared to a baseline scenario. The total amount of P2P energy traded is found to be higher when the trading preferences are based on distance, which could also be considered as a proxy for energy efficiency in the network by encouraging P2P trading among nearby households. However, the P2P trading prices in this strategy are found to be lower. Further, a comparison is made between two scenarios: with and without electric heating in households. Although the electrification of heating reduces the total amount of P2P energy trading, its impact on the trading prices is found to be limited.

On the climate impacts of blue hydrogen production

Abstract: Natural gas based hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage is referred to as blue hydrogen. If substantial amounts of CO2 from natural gas reforming are captured and permanently stored, such hydrogen could be a low-carbon energy carrier. However, recent research raises questions about the effective climate impacts of blue hydrogen from a life cycle perspective. Our analysis sheds light on the relevant issues and provides a balanced perspective on the impacts on climate change associated with blue hydrogen. We show that such impacts may indeed vary over large ranges and depend on only a few key parameters: the methane emission rate of the natural gas supply chain, the CO2 removal rate at the hydrogen production plant, and the global warming metric applied. State-of-the-art reforming with high CO2 capture rates combined with natural gas supply featuring low methane emissions does indeed allow for substantial reduction of greenhouse gas emissions compared to both conventional natural gas reforming and direct combustion of natural gas. Under such conditions, blue hydrogen is compatible with low-carbon economies and exhibits climate change impacts at the upper end of the range of those caused by hydrogen production from renewable-based electricity. However, neither current blue nor green hydrogen production pathways render fully “net-zero” hydrogen without additional CO2 removal.

Feasibility and safety of intranasally administered mesenchymal stromal cells after perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke in the Netherlands (PASSIoN): a first-in-human, open-label intervention study

Abstract: Perinatal arterial ischaemic stroke (PAIS) is an important cause of neurodevelopmental disabilities. In this first-in-human study, we aimed to assess the feasibility and safety of intranasally delivered bone marrow-derived allogeneic mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) to treat PAIS in neonates.In this open-label intervention study in collaboration with all neonatal intensive care units in the Netherlands, we included neonates born at full term (≥36 weeks of gestation) with MRI-confirmed PAIS in the middle cerebral artery region. All eligible patients were transferred to the neonatal intensive care unit of the Wilhelmina Children's Hospital. Neonates received one dose of 45-50 × 106 bone-marrow derived MSCs intranasally within 7 days of presenting signs of PAIS. The primary endpoints were acute and subacute safety outcomes, including vital signs, blood markers, and the occurrence of toxicity, adverse events, and serious adverse events. The occurrence of unexpected cerebral abnormalities by a repeat MRI at 3 months of age was a secondary endpoint. As part of standard clinical follow-up at Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, we assessed corticospinal tract development on MRI and performed motor assessments at 4 months of age. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03356821.Between Feb 11, 2020, and April 29, 2021, ten neonates were enrolled in the study. Intranasal administration of MSCs was well tolerated in all ten neonates. No serious adverse events were observed. One adverse event was seen: a mild transient fever of 38°C without the need for clinical intervention. Blood inflammation markers (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and leukocyte count) were not significantly different pre-administration versus post-administration and, although thrombocyte levels increased (p=0·011), all were within the physiological range. Follow-up MRI scans did not show unexpected structural cerebral abnormalities. All ten patients had initial pre-Wallerian changes in the corticospinal tracts, but only four (40%) patients showed asymmetrical corticospinal tracts at follow-up MRI. Abnormal early motor assessment was found in three (30%) infants.This first-in-human study demonstrates that intranasal bone marrow-derived MSC administration in neonates after PAIS is feasible and no serious adverse events were observed in patients followed up until 3 months of age. Future large-scale placebo-controlled studies are needed to determine the therapeutic effect of intranasal MSCs for PAIS.Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw).

Work and worker health in the post-pandemic world: a public health perspective

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of work in shaping population health and wellbeing. This Viewpoint applies a multilevel systems framework to assist in understanding the diverse and complex interactions of forces affecting worker health and wellbeing, and how trending changes in employment and working conditions have been accelerated by the pandemic. Government agencies concerned with population health and wellbeing, and economic activity must expand their capacity to monitor, evaluate, and respond to these trends. In addition, integrated enterprise and workplace-based approaches that consider the interactions among these multidimensional drivers will build organisation and worker resilience to navigate the continual changes in work and worker safety, health, and wellbeing in a post-pandemic world.

Completeness of reporting of clinical prediction models developed using supervised machine learning: a systematic review

Abstract: While many studies have consistently found incomplete reporting of regression-based prediction model studies, evidence is lacking for machine learning-based prediction model studies. We aim to systematically review the adherence of Machine Learning (ML)-based prediction model studies to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Statement.We included articles reporting on development or external validation of a multivariable prediction model (either diagnostic or prognostic) developed using supervised ML for individualized predictions across all medical fields. We searched PubMed from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019. Data extraction was performed using the 22-item checklist for reporting of prediction model studies ( www.TRIPOD-statement.org ). We measured the overall adherence per article and per TRIPOD item.Our search identified 24,814 articles, of which 152 articles were included: 94 (61.8%) prognostic and 58 (38.2%) diagnostic prediction model studies. Overall, articles adhered to a median of 38.7% (IQR 31.0-46.4%) of TRIPOD items. No article fully adhered to complete reporting of the abstract and very few reported the flow of participants (3.9%, 95% CI 1.8 to 8.3), appropriate title (4.6%, 95% CI 2.2 to 9.2), blinding of predictors (4.6%, 95% CI 2.2 to 9.2), model specification (5.2%, 95% CI 2.4 to 10.8), and model's predictive performance (5.9%, 95% CI 3.1 to 10.9). There was often complete reporting of source of data (98.0%, 95% CI 94.4 to 99.3) and interpretation of the results (94.7%, 95% CI 90.0 to 97.3).Similar to prediction model studies developed using conventional regression-based techniques, the completeness of reporting is poor. Essential information to decide to use the model (i.e. model specification and its performance) is rarely reported. However, some items and sub-items of TRIPOD might be less suitable for ML-based prediction model studies and thus, TRIPOD requires extensions. Overall, there is an urgent need to improve the reporting quality and usability of research to avoid research waste.PROSPERO, CRD42019161764.

CAMS-REG-v4: a state-of-the-art high-resolution European emission inventory for air quality modelling

Abstract: Abstract. This paper presents a state-of-the-art anthropogenic emission inventory developed for the European domain for an 18-year time series (2000–2017) at a 0.05∘ × 0.1∘ grid resolution, specifically designed to support air quality modelling. The main air pollutants are included: NOx, SO2, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH3, CO, PM10 and PM2.5, and also CH4. To stay as close as possible to the emissions as officially reported and used in policy assessment, the inventory uses the officially reported emission data by European countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and the EU National Emission Ceilings Directive as the basis where possible. Where deemed necessary because of errors, incompleteness or inconsistencies, these are replaced with or complemented by other emission data, most notably the estimates included in the Greenhouse gas Air pollution Interaction and Synergies (GAINS) model. Emissions are collected at the high sectoral level, distinguishing around 250 different sector–fuel combinations, whereafter a consistent spatial distribution is applied for Europe. A specific proxy is selected for each of the sector–fuel combinations, pollutants and years. Point source emissions are largely based on reported facility-level emissions, complemented by other sources of point source data for power plants. For specific sources, the resulting emission data were replaced with other datasets. Emissions from shipping (both inland and at sea) are based on the results from a separate shipping emission model where emissions are based on actual ship movement data, and agricultural waste burning emissions are based on satellite observations. The resulting spatially distributed emissions are evaluated against earlier versions of the dataset as well as against alternative emission estimates, which reveals specific discrepancies in some cases. Along with the resulting annual emission maps, profiles for splitting particulate matter (PM) and NMVOCs into individual components are provided, as well as information on the height profile by sector and temporal disaggregation down to the hourly level to support modelling activities. Annual grid maps are available in csv and NetCDF format (https://doi.org/10.24380/0vzb-a387, Kuenen et al., 2021).

Assessing transitions through socio-technical configuration analysis – a methodological framework and a case study in the water sector

Abstract: Classic accounts of transitions research have predominantly built on reconstructions of historical transition processes and in-depth case studies to identify and conceptualize socio-technical change. While such approaches have substantively improved our understanding of transitions, they often suffer from methodological nationalism and a lack of generalizability beyond spatial and sectoral boundaries. To address this gap, we propose a novel methodology – socio-technical configuration analysis (STCA) – to map and measure socio-technical alignment processes across time and space. STCA provides a configurational and dynamic perspective on how social and technical elements get aligned into “configurations that work”, allowing for the identification of differentiated transition trajectories at and across spatial and sectoral contexts. The methodology's value is illustrated with the empirical case of an ongoing shift from centralized to more modular infrastructure configurations in the global water sector. Building on this illustration, we outline potential contributions of STCA to configurational theorizing in transition studies, sketching the contours of what we believe could become a generative epistemological approach for this field.

CRISPR-Cas is associated with fewer antibiotic resistance genes in bacterial pathogens.

Abstract: The acquisition of antibiotic resistance (ABR) genes via horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a key driver of the rise in multidrug resistance amongst bacterial pathogens. Bacterial defence systems per definition restrict the influx of foreign genetic material, and may therefore limit the acquisition of ABR. CRISPR-Cas adaptive immune systems are one of the most prevalent defences in bacteria, found in roughly half of bacterial genomes, but it has remained unclear if and how much they contribute to restricting the spread of ABR. We analysed approximately 40 000 whole genomes comprising the full RefSeq dataset for 11 species of clinically important genera of human pathogens, including Enterococcus, Staphylococcus, Acinetobacter and Pseudomonas. We modelled the association between CRISPR-Cas and indicators of HGT, and found that pathogens with a CRISPR-Cas system were less likely to carry ABR genes than those lacking this defence system. Analysis of the mobile genetic elements (MGEs) targeted by CRISPR-Cas supports a model where this host defence system blocks important vectors of ABR. These results suggest a potential 'immunocompromised' state for multidrug-resistant strains that may be exploited in tailored interventions that rely on MGEs, such as phages or phagemids, to treat infections caused by bacterial pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue 'The secret lives of microbial mobile genetic elements'.

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract: Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Narrowband Searches for Continuous and Long-duration Transient Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars in the LIGO-Virgo Third Observing Run

Abstract: Isolated neutron stars that are asymmetric with respect to their spin axis are possible sources of detectable continuous gravitational waves. This paper presents a fully-coherent search for such signals from eighteen pulsars in data from LIGO and Virgo's third observing run (O3). For known pulsars, efficient and sensitive matched-filter searches can be carried out if one assumes the gravitational radiation is phase-locked to the electromagnetic emission. In the search presented here, we relax this assumption and allow the frequency and frequency time-derivative of the gravitational waves to vary in a small range around those inferred from electromagnetic observations. We find no evidence for continuous gravitational waves, and set upper limits on the strain amplitude for each target. These limits are more constraining for seven of the targets than the spin-down limit defined by ascribing all rotational energy loss to gravitational radiation. In an additional search we look in O3 data for long-duration (hours-months) transient gravitational waves in the aftermath of pulsar glitches for six targets with a total of nine glitches. We report two marginal outliers from this search, but find no clear evidence for such emission either. The resulting duration-dependent strain upper limits do not surpass indirect energy constraints for any of these targets.

Laser ionization mass spectrometry at 55: Quo Vadis?

Abstract: Laser ionization mass spectrometry (LIMS) was one of the first practical methods developed for in situ analysis of the surfaces of solid samples. This review will encompass several aspects related to this analytical method. First, we will discuss the process of laser ionization, the influence of the laser type on its performance, and imaging capabilities of this method. In the second chapter, we will follow the historic development of LIMS instrumentation. After a brief overview of the first-generation instruments developed in 1960-1990 years, we will discuss in detail more recent designs, which appeared during the last 2-3 decades. In the last part of our review, we will cover the recent applications of LIMS for surface analysis. These applications include various types of analyses of solid inorganic, organic, and heterogeneous samples, often in combination with depth profiling and imaging capability.

A systematic review of loneliness in bereavement: Current research and future directions.

Abstract: Bereaved people suffer from loneliness and loneliness is associated with poor mental health. In this study, this topic is reviewed. An agenda is suggested for future research. Research that is theory-driven, addresses measurement consistency, correlates of loneliness in bereaved and non-bereaved, and treatment is necessary for prevention and intervention.

Presence of nanoplastics in rural and remote surface waters

Abstract: Abstract It is now established that microplastics are a pervasive presence in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. The same is assumed to be true for nanoplastics but data are lacking due to technical difficulties associated with sample analysis. Here, we measured nanoplastics in waterbodies at two contrasting sites: remote Siberian Arctic tundra and a forest landscape in southern Sweden. Nanoplastics were detected in all sampled Swedish lakes ( n = 7) and streams ( n = 4) (mean concentration = 563 µ g l −1 ) and four polymer types were identified (polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate). In Siberia nanoplastics were detected in 7/12 sampled lakes, ponds and surface flooding, but only two polymer types were detected (PVC and polystyrene) and concentrations were lower (mean 51 µ g l −1 ). Based on back-calculation of air mass trajectories and particle dispersion, we infer that nanoplastics arrive at both sites by aerial deposition from local and regional sources. Our results suggest that nanoplastics may be a near-ubiquitous presence even in remote ecosystems.