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Showing papers by "World Bank published in 2012"


Journal ArticleDOI
Stephen S Lim1, Theo Vos, Abraham D. Flaxman1, Goodarz Danaei2  +207 moreInstitutions (92)
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010.

9,324 citations


BookDOI
TL;DR: The first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) database is presented in this article, which measures how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk.
Abstract: This paper provides the first analysis of the Global Financial Inclusion (Global Findex) Database, a new set of indicators that measure how adults in 148 economies save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. The data show that 50 percent of adults worldwide have an account at a formal financial institution, though account penetration varies widely across regions, income groups and individual characteristics. In addition, 22 percent of adults report having saved at a formal financial institution in the past 12 months, and 9 percent report having taken out a new loan from a bank, credit union or microfinance institution in the past year. Although half of adults around the world remain unbanked, at least 35 percent of them report barriers to account use that might be addressed by public policy. Among the most commonly reported barriers are high cost, physical distance, and lack of proper documentation, though there are significant differences across regions and individual characteristics.

1,156 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a model of endogenous input and output quality choices by heterogeneous firms was proposed to explain the observed price-plant correlation. But the empirical patterns are consistent with a parsimonious extension of the Melitz (2003, “The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,” Econometrica, 71, 1695-1725) framework to include endogenous choice of input andoutput quality.
Abstract: Drawing on uncommonly rich and representative data from the Colombian manufacturing census, this paper documents new empirical relationships between input prices, output prices, and plant size and proposes a model of endogenous input and output quality choices by heterogeneous firms to explain the observed patterns. The key empirical facts are that, on average within narrowly defined sectors, (1) larger plants charge more for their outputs and (2) larger plants pay more for their material inputs. The latter fact generalizes the well-known positive correlation between plant size and wages. Similar correlations hold between prices and export status. We show that the empirical patterns are consistent with a parsimonious extension of the Melitz (2003, “The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,” Econometrica, 71 , 1695–1725) framework to include endogenous choice of input and output quality. Using a measure of the scope for quality differentiation from Sutton (1998, Technology and Market Structure: Theory and History . Cambridge: MIT Press), we show that differences across sectors in the relationships between prices and plant size are consistent with our model. Available evidence suggests that differences in observable measures of market power do not provide a complete explanation for the empirical patterns. We interpret the results as supportive of the hypothesis that quality differences of both inputs and outputs play an important role in generating the price–plant size correlations.

699 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors tried to understand the individual and country characteristics associated with the use of formal accounts and what policies are effective among those most likely to be excluded: the poor and rural residents.
Abstract: Financial inclusion -- defined here as the use of formal accounts -- can bring many welfare benefits to individuals. Yet the authors know very little about the factors underpinning financial inclusion across individuals and countries. Using data for 123 countries and over 124,000 individuals, this paper tries to understand the individual and country characteristicsassociated with the use of formal accounts and what policies are effective among those most likely to be excluded: the poor and rural residents. The authors find that greater ownership and use of accounts is associated with a better enabling environment for accessing financial services, such as lower account costs and greater proximity to financial intermediaries. Policies targeted to promote inclusion -- such as requiring banks to offer basic or low-fee accounts, exempting some depositors from onerous documentation requirements, allowing correspondent banking, and using bank accounts to make government payments -- may be especially effective among those most likely to be excluded. Finally, the study the factors associated with perceived barriers to account ownership among those who are financially excluded and find that these individuals report lower barriers in countries with lower costs of accounts and greater penetration of financial service providers. Overall, the results suggest that policies to reduce barriers to financial inclusion may expand the pool of eligible account users and encourage existing account holders to use their accounts with greater frequency and for the purpose of saving.

639 citations


BookDOI
TL;DR: The Global Financial Development Database (GFDB) as discussed by the authors is a dataset of financial system characteristics for 205 economies from 1960 to 2010, which includes measures of the size of financial institutions and markets (financial depth), degree to which individuals can and do use financial services (access), efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets in intermediating resources and facilitating financial transactions (efficiency), and stability of financial institution and markets.
Abstract: This paper introduces the Global Financial Development Database, an extensive dataset of financial system characteristics for 205 economies from 1960 to 2010. The database includes measures of (a) size of financial institutions and markets (financial depth), (b) degree to which individuals can and do use financial services (access), (c) efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets in intermediating resources and facilitating financial transactions (efficiency), and (d) stability of financial institutions and markets (stability). The authors document cross-country differences and time series trends.

592 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Cash transfer programmes can reduce HIV and HSV-2 infections in adolescent schoolgirls in low-income settings and detected no significant difference between intervention and control groups for weighted HIV prevalence.

579 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article developed a conceptual framework with which to study contracting between small-holders and a commodity-processing firm and synthesize results from empirical studies of contract farming arrangements in five countries (Ghana, India, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Nicaragua).

564 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the technical, economic and policy aspects of solar energy development and deployment are analyzed, including tax credits and exemptions, feed-in-tariff, preferential interest rates, renewable portfolio standards and voluntary green power programs in many countries.
Abstract: Solar energy has experienced phenomenal growth in recent years due to both technological improvements resulting in cost reductions and government policies supportive of renewable energy development and utilization. This study analyzes the technical, economic and policy aspects of solar energy development and deployment. While the cost of solar energy has declined rapidly in the recent past, it still remains much higher than the cost of conventional energy technologies. Like other renewable energy technologies, solar energy benefits from fiscal and regulatory incentives, including tax credits and exemptions, feed-in-tariff, preferential interest rates, renewable portfolio standards and voluntary green power programs in many countries. The emerging carbon credit markets are expected to provide additional incentives to solar energy deployment; however, the scale of incentives provided by the existing carbon market instruments, such as, the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol is limited. Despite the huge technical potential, the development and large scale deployment of solar energy technologies world-wide still has to overcome a number of technical, financial, regulatory and institutional barriers. The continuation of policy supports might be necessary for several decades to maintain and enhance the growth of solar energy in both developed and developing countries.

547 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A critical review of these studies with the goal of synthesizing the emerging lessons and understanding the limitations of the existing research and the areas in which more work is needed is presented in this paper.
Abstract: Business training programs are a popular policy option to try to improve the performance of enterprises around the world. The last few years have seen rapid growth in the number of evaluations of these programs in developing countries. This paper undertakes a critical review of these studies with the goal of synthesizing the emerging lessons and understanding the limitations of the existing research and the areas in which more work is needed. It finds that there is substantial heterogeneity in the length, content, and types of firms participating in the training programs evaluated. Many evaluations suffer from low statistical power, measure impacts only within a year of training, and experience problems with survey attrition and measurement of firm profits and revenues. Over these short time horizons, there are relatively modest impacts of training on survivorship of existing firms, but stronger evidence that training programs help prospective owners launch new businesses more quickly. Most studies find that existing firm owners implement some of the practices taught in training, but the magnitudes of these improvements in practices are often relatively modest. Few studies find significant impacts on profits or sales, although a couple of the studies with more statistical power have done so. Some studies have also found benefits to microfinance organizations of offering training. To date there is little evidence to help guide policymakers as to whether any impacts found come from trained firms competing away sales from other businesses versus through productivity improvements, and little evidence to guide the development of the provision of training at market prices. The paper concludes by summarizing some directions and key questions for future studies.

530 citations


Posted Content
TL;DR: Two distinct approaches to the measurement of industry upstreamness (or average distance from final use) are proposed and shown to yield an equivalent measure and two additional interpretations of this measure are provided.
Abstract: We propose two distinct approaches to the measurement of industry upstreamness (or average distance from final use) and show that they yield an equivalent measure. Furthermore, we provide two additional interpretations of this measure, one of them related to the concept of forward linkages in Input-Output analysis. On the empirical side, we construct this measure for 426 industries using the 2002 US Input-Output Tables. We also verify the stability of upstreamness across countries in the OECD STAN database, albeit with a more aggregated industry classification. Finally, we present an application that explores the determinants of the average upstreamness of exports at the country level using trade flows for 2002.

527 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties.
Abstract: Many areas of the world are prone to several natural hazards, and effective risk reduction is only possible if all relevant threats are considered and analyzed. However, in contrast to single-hazard analyses, the examination of multiple hazards poses a range of additional challenges due to the differing characteristics of processes. This refers to the assessment of the hazard level, as well as to the vulnerability toward distinct processes, and to the arising risk level. As comparability of the single-hazard results is strongly needed, an equivalent approach has to be chosen that allows to estimate the overall hazard and consequent risk level as well as to rank threats. In addition, the visualization of a range of natural hazards or risks is a challenging task since the high quantity of information has to be depicted in a way that allows for easy and clear interpretation. The aim of this contribution is to give an outline of the challenges each step of a multi-hazard (risk) analysis poses and to present current studies and approaches that face these difficulties.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An experiment in 640 Indonesian villages on three approaches to target the poor: proxy-means tests (PMT), where assets are used to predict consumption; community targeting; and a hybrid, which performs somewhat worse in identifying the poor than PMT.
Abstract: The brief summarizes the targeting the poor: evidence from a field experiment in Indonesia for the period December 2008 - January 2009. This paper reports an experiment in 640 Indonesian villages on three approaches to target the poor: proxy means tests (PMT), where assets are used to predict consumption; community targeting, where villagers rank everyone from richest to poorest; and a hybrid. Defining poverty based on PPP$2 per capita consumption, community targeting and the hybrid perform somewhat worse in identifying the poor than PMT, though not by enough to significantly affect poverty outcomes for a typical program. Elite capture does not explain these results. Instead, communities appear to apply a different concept of poverty.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors tried to understand the individual and country characteristics associated with the use of formal accounts and what policies are effective among those most likely to be excluded: the poor and rural residents.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the 100th anniversary of the Gini index is celebrated by providing the original formulae of Gini's index, as well as some of the developments that derived from the study of the index.
Abstract: The scope of this paper is to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Gini index by providing the original formulae. Corrado Gini introduced his index for the first time in a 1912 book published in Italian under the name of “Variabilita e Mutabilita” (Variability and Mutability). This article provides selected extracts of Part I of the book dedicated to measures of variability. We find that Gini proposed no less than 13 formulations of his index, none of which is known today to the large public. We also find that Gini anticipated some of the developments that derived from the study of his index.

Journal Article
TL;DR: The Database of Political Institutions (DBIS) as mentioned in this paper is a large cross-country database of political institutions that covers 177 countries over 21 years, 1975-95, and includes several measures of checks and balances, tenure and stability, identification of party affiliation with government or opposition, and fragmentation of opposition and government parties in the legislature.
Abstract: This article introduces a large new cross-country database, the Database of Political Institutions. It covers 177 countries over 21 years, 1975-95. The article presents the intuition, construction, and definitions of the different variables. Among the novel variables introduced are several measures of checks and balances, tenure and stability, identification of party affiliation with government or opposition, and fragmentation of opposition and government parties in the legislature.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the link between those reforms and the productivity of manufacturing firms using panel data for about 4,000 Indian firms from 1993 to 2005 and found that banking, telecommunications, insurance and transport reforms all had significant, positive effects on the productivity.
Abstract: The growth of India's manufacturing sector since 1991 has been attributed mostly to trade liberalization and more permissive industrial licensing. This paper demonstrates the significant impact of a neglected factor: India's policy reforms in services. The authors examine the link between those reforms and the productivity of manufacturing firms using panel data for about 4,000 Indian firms from1993 to 2005. They find that banking, telecommunications, insurance and transport reforms all had significant, positive effects on the productivity of manufacturing firms. Services reforms benefited both foreign and locally-owned manufacturing firms, but the effects on foreign firms tended to be stronger. A one-standard-deviation increase in the aggregate index of services liberalization resulted in a productivity increase of 11.7 percent for domestic firms and 13.2 percent for foreign enterprises.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The study used standardized patients recruited from the local community and trained to present consistent cases of illness to providers to measure quality, and found low overall levels of medical training among health care providers and adherence to clinical checklists.
Abstract: This article reports on the quality of care delivered by private and public providers of primary health care services in rural and urban India. To measure quality, the study used standardized patients recruited from the local community and trained to present consistent cases of illness to providers. We found low overall levels of medical training among health care providers; in rural Madhya Pradesh, for example, 67 percent of health care providers who were sampled reported no medical qualifications at all. What’s more, we found only small differences between trained and untrained doctors in such areas as adherence to clinical checklists. Correct diagnoses were rare, incorrect treatments were widely prescribed, and adherence to clinical checklists was higher in private than in public clinics. Our results suggest an urgent need to measure the quality of health care services systematically and to improve the quality of medical education and continuing education programs, among other policy changes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the economic impact of social pressure to share income with kin and neighbors in rural Kenyan villages was measured by a lab experiment in which they randomly vary the observability of investment returns and found that women adopt an investment strategy that conceals the size of their initial endowment in the experiment, although that strategy reduces their expected earnings.
Abstract: This paper measures the economic impact of social pressure to share income with kin and neighbors in rural Kenyan villages. The authors conduct a lab experiment in which they randomly vary the observability of investment returns. The goal is to test whether subjects reduce their income in order to keep it hidden. The analysis finds that women adopt an investment strategy that conceals the size of their initial endowment in the experiment, although that strategy reduces their expected earnings. This effect is largest among women with relatives attending the experiment. Parameter estimates suggest that women behave as though they expect to be pressured to share four percent of their observable income with others, and substantially more when close kin can observe income directly. Although this paper provides experimental evidence from a single African country, observational studies suggest that similar pressure from kin may be prevalent in many rural areas throughout Sub-Saharan Africa.

Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 2012
TL;DR: In this article, two types of impacts on human and ecological systems are examined: (i) impacts of extreme weather and climate events; and (ii) extreme impacts triggered by less-than-extreme weather or climate events (in combination with nonclimatic factors, such as high exposure and/or vulnerability).
Abstract: In this chapter, two different types of impacts on human and ecological systems are examined: (i) impacts of extreme weather and climate events; and (ii) extreme impacts triggered by less-than-extreme weather or climate events (in combination with non-climatic factors, such as high exposure and/or vulnerability). Where data are available, impacts are examined from sectoral and regional perspectives.

BookDOI
TL;DR: The authors summarized global evidence on financial literacy, its correlates, and existing and upcoming causal investigations and concluded with a synthesis of policy advice and practical suggestions for the way forward in this fast growing area of research.
Abstract: Financial literacy programs are fast becoming a key ingredient in financial policy reform worldwide. Yet, what is financial literacy exactly and what do we know of its effectiveness? This paper collects insights from the literature thus far and summarizes global evidence on financial literacy, its correlates, and existing and upcoming causal investigations. The authors conclude with a synthesis of policy advice and practical suggestions for the way forward in this fast growing area of research.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Gini coefficient in 13 of 17 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2010, the decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on the country.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed heterogeneity among the self-employed in 74 developing countries, representing two-thirds of the population of the developing world, and found that the structure of employment shifts rapidly, first out of agriculture into unsuccessful non-agricultural self-employment, and then mainly into non-aggricultural wage employment.

BookDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors summarized the existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, costbenefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis.
Abstract: While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties cannot be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), it then summarizes existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis. It also provides examples of applications of these methodologies, highlighting their pros and cons and their domain of applicability. The paper concludes that it is impossible to define the "best" solution or to prescribe any particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu of methodologies is required, together with some indications on which strategies are most appropriate in which contexts. This analysis is based on a set of interviews with decision-makers, in particular World Bank project leaders, and on a literature review on decision-making under uncertainty. It aims at helping decision-makers identify which method is more appropriate in a given context, as a function of the project's lifetime, cost, and vulnerability.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors explored the links between exports, export destinations, and skill utilization and found that Argentine firms exporting to high-income countries hired more skilled workers than other exporters and domestic firms.
Abstract: This paper explores the links between exports, export destinations, and skill utilization. We identify two mechanisms behind these links: differences across destinations in quality valuation and in exporting required services, activities that are intensive in skilled labor. Depending on the characteristics of the source country (income, language), the theories suggest a skill-bias in export destinations. We test the theory using a panel of Argentine manufacturing firms. We find that Argentine firms exporting to high-income countries hired more skilled workers than other exporters and domestic firms. Instead, we cannot identify any causal effect of exporting per se on skill utilization. (JEL F14, F16, J24, L60, O14, O19)

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used sample survey data and census data to predict poverty rates for the population covered by the census and found that these poverty rates are precisely measured, even at fairly disaggregated levels.
Abstract: Poverty maps provide information on the spatial distribution of living standards. They are an important tool for policymakers, who rely on them to allocate transfers and inform policy design. Poverty maps art also an important tool for researchers, who use them to investigate the relationship between distribution within a country and growth or other economic, environmental, or social outcomes. A major impediment to the development of poverty maps has been that needed data on income or consumption typically are available only from relatively small surveys. Census data have the required sample size but generally do not have the required information. This article uses the case of Ecuador to demonstrate how sample survey data can be combined with census data to yield predicted poverty rates for the population covered by the census. These poverty rates are found to be precisely measured, even at fairly disaggregated levels. However, beyond a certain level of spatial disaggregation, standard errors rise rapidly.

Book
09 Nov 2012
TL;DR: The authors in this paper investigated the nature, determinants, and possible consequences of this remarkable process of social transformation and investigated the rise of the Latin American middle class over the past 10-15 years and explored the size, nature and composition of this pivotal new social group.
Abstract: After decades of stagnation, the size of the middle class in Latin America and the Caribbean recently expanded by 50 percent from 103 million people in 2003 to 152 million (or 30 percent of the continent's population) in 2009. Over the same period, as household incomes grew and inequality edged downward in most countries, the proportion of people in poverty fell markedly: from 44 percent to 30 percent. As a result, the middle class and the poor now account for roughly the same share of Latin America's population. This is in stark contrast to the situation prevailing (for a long period) until about 10 years ago, when the share of the poor hovered around 2.5 times that of the middle class. This study investigates the nature, determinants, and possible consequences of this remarkable process of social transformation. Such large changes in the size and composition of social classes must, by definition, imply substantial economic mobility of some form. A large number of people who were poor in the late 1990s are now no longer poor. Others who were not yet middle class have now joined its ranks. But social and economic mobility does not mean the same thing to different people or in different contexts. This report discusses the relevant concepts and documents the facts about mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean over the past two decades, both within and between generations. In addition, it investigates the rise of the Latin American middle class over the past 10-15 years and explores the size, nature, and composition of this pivotal new social group. More speculatively, it also asks how the rising middle class may reshape the region's social contract.

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jan 2012-BMJ Open
TL;DR: Conditional cash transfers used to incentivise safer sexual practices are a potentially promising new tool in HIV and sexually transmitted infections prevention.
Abstract: Objective: The authors evaluated the use of conditional cash transfers as an HIV and sexually transmitted infection prevention strategy to incentivise safe sex. Design: An unblinded, individually randomised and controlled trial. Setting: 10 villages within the Kilombero/Ulanga districts of the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural south-west Tanzania. Participants: The authors enrolled 2399 participants, aged 18e30 years, including adult spouses. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Gini coefficient in 13 of 17 Latin American countries between 2000 and 2010, the decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources as discussed by the authors.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present several high-level, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030, and construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the relation between deposit insurance and bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading to and during the recent financial crisis and found that generous financial safety nets increase bank risk.
Abstract: Deposit insurance is widely offered in a number of countries as part of a financial system safety net to promote stability. An unintended consequence of deposit insurance is the reduction in the incentive of depositors to monitor banks, which leads to excessive risk-taking. This paper examines the relation between deposit insurance and bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading to and during the recent financial crisis. It finds that generous financial safety nets increase bank risk and systemic fragility in the years leading up to the global financial crisis. However, during the crisis, bank risk is lower and systemic stability is greater in countries with deposit insurance coverage. The findings suggest that the "moral hazard effect" of deposit insurance dominates in good times while the "stabilization effect" of deposit insurance dominates in turbulent times. Nevertheless, the overall effect of deposit insurance over the full sample remains negative since the destabilizing effect during normal times is greater in magnitude compared with the stabilizing effect during global turbulence. In addition, the analysis finds that good bank supervision can alleviate the unintended consequences of deposit insurance on bank systemic risk during good times, suggesting that fostering the appropriate incentive framework is very important for ensuring systemic stability.