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Showing papers by "World Bank published in 2021"


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21 Aug 2021
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the impact of economic crisis on the ability of small farmers to resist the political influence of rural elites and urban dwellers and discuss the implications for research as well as for policy advice.
Abstract: Political outcomes - such as agricultural taxation, subsidization, and the provision of public goods - result from political bargaining among interest groups. Such bargaining is likely to be efficiency-enhancing and growth-enhancing when equally powerful interest groups - aware of the economywide budget constraint and know the economic implications of different policy options - participate, and when impartial institutions are available to enforce decisions. The greater the deviation from these conditions, the greater the potential for efficiency-reducing outcomes, the costs of which will generally fall disproportionately on politically underrepresented or powerless groups. Material conditions of agriculture production - such as spatial dispersion, seasonal work cycles, covariance of risk, and the associated market imperfections - exacerbate the difficulties faced by small producers to engage in collective action. So, despite being generally the economically most efficient form of production, family farmers' ability to counteract the political influence of rural elites and urban dwellers is extremely limited. Lack of independent institutions and clearly defined property rights - and the presence of organizational residues - not only reduce peasants' bargaining power but may also make it more profitable for powerful groups to prefer rent seeking to productive activities. How can these undesirable outcomes be avoided, and how can sustainable policy changes be initiated? Experience indicates that fiscal crises of the state, often triggered or aggravated by an external shock, can cause lasting changes of policies and institutions. By forcing the state to devolve some of its power in exchange for financial assistance to meet its immediate needs, such a crisis can give rise to the emergence of independent legal, political, and economic institutions that are maintained even once the crisis has subsided, External actors that provide resources in terms of crisis and at the same time enhance the scope for politically least vocal parts of civil society to participate in political discourse can have a significant impact on changing policy. The paper discusses in detail the implications for research as well as for policy advice.

328 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: House coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis.
Abstract: Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic remains scarce for most low- and middle-income countries, partly due to limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. We assemble evidence from over 30,000 respondents in 16 original household surveys from nine countries in Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone), Asia (Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines), and Latin America (Colombia). We document declines in employment and income in all settings beginning March 2020. The share of households experiencing an income drop ranges from 8 to 87% (median, 68%). Household coping strategies and government assistance were insufficient to sustain precrisis living standards, resulting in widespread food insecurity and dire economic conditions even 3 months into the crisis. We discuss promising policy responses and speculate about the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.

253 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article investigated the impacts of COVID-19 on gender inequality in economic outcomes such as income, expenditure, savings, and job loss in a multi-country setting, and found that women are 24 percent more likely to permanently lose their job than men because of the outbreak.

200 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors document the socioeconomic impacts of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic among households, adults and children in low-income countries, and find that student-teacher contact has dropped from a pre-COVID-19 rate of 96% to just 17% among households with school-aged children.
Abstract: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and attempts to limit its spread have resulted in a contraction of the global economy. Here we document the socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic among households, adults and children in low-income countries. To do so, we rely on longitudinal household survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda, originating from pre-COVID-19 face-to-face household surveys plus phone surveys implemented during the pandemic. We estimate that 256 million individuals-77% of the population-live in households that have lost income during the pandemic. Attempts to cope with this loss are exacerbated by food insecurity and an inability to access medicine and staple foods. Finally, we find that student-teacher contact has dropped from a pre-COVID-19 rate of 96% to just 17% among households with school-aged children. These findings can inform decisions by governments and international organizations on measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

157 citations


Posted ContentDOI
TL;DR: A thorough analysis of recorded learning loss evidence documented between March 2020 and March 2021 finds that further research is needed to increase the quantity of studies produced, their geographical focus, and the numbers of students they observe.
Abstract: With Covid-19 having caused significant disruption to the global education system, researchers are beginning to become concerned with the impact that this has had on student learning progress and, in particular, whether learning loss has been experienced. To evaluate this, the authors conducted a thorough analysis of recorded learning loss evidence documented between March 2020 and March 2021. This systematic review aims to consolidate available data and to document what has been reported in the literature. Given the novelty of the subject, eight studies were identified; seven of these found evidence of student learning loss among at least some of the participants while one of the seven also found instances of learning gains in a particular subgroup. The remaining study found increased learning gains in their participants. Additionally, four of the studies observed increases in inequality where certain demographics of students experienced learning losses more significant than others. It is determined that further research is needed to increase the quantity of studies produced, their geographical focus, and the numbers of students they observe.

131 citations



Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The extent to which they can promote environmentally adjusted multifactor productivity growth, green patent registrations, green bond issuances, green foreign direct investment, and environmental, social, and governance information disclosures stands to impact on their shifts to sustainable growth paradigms.
Abstract: Green innovation and green finance are two key components of sustainable development. In the most populous, fastest‐growing region in the world, Asian countries are pressed to maintain economic growth while addressing climate change and environmental externalities. Japan, South Korea, and China have each implemented policies to promote green innovation and finance conducive to such ends. While each country possesses unique capabilities, the extent to which they can promote environmentally adjusted multifactor productivity growth, green patent registrations, green bond issuances, green foreign direct investment, and environmental, social, and governance information disclosures stands to impact on their shifts to sustainable growth paradigms.

106 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
19 Jul 2021
TL;DR: Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on maternal and child nutrition outcomes, and productivity losses due to childhood stunting and mortality, in 118 low- and middle-income countries are projected under optimistic, moderate and pessimistic scenarios.
Abstract: The economic crisis and food and health system disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic threaten to exacerbate undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We developed pessimistic, moderate and optimistic scenarios for 2020–2022 and used three modelling tools (MIRAGRODEP, the Lives Saved Tool and Optima Nutrition) to estimate the impacts of pandemic-induced disruptions on child stunting, wasting and mortality, maternal anaemia and children born to women with a low body mass index (BMI) in 118 LMICs. We estimated the cost of six nutrition interventions to mitigate excess stunting and child mortality due to the pandemic and to maximize alive and non-stunted children, and used the human capital approach to estimate future productivity losses. By 2022, COVID-19-related disruptions could result in an additional 9.3 million wasted children and 2.6 million stunted children, 168,000 additional child deaths, 2.1 million maternal anaemia cases, 2.1 million children born to women with a low BMI and US$29.7 billion in future productivity losses due to excess stunting and child mortality. An additional US$1.2 billion per year will be needed to mitigate these effects by scaling up nutrition interventions. Governments and donors must maintain nutrition as a priority, continue to support resilient systems and ensure the efficient use of new and existing resources. Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on maternal and child nutrition outcomes, and productivity losses due to childhood stunting and mortality, in 118 low- and middle-income countries are projected under optimistic, moderate and pessimistic scenarios. Six nutrition interventions to mitigate excess stunting and child mortality are financially costed.

105 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlighted how the evidence base for nutrition, health, food systems, social protection, and water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions has evolved since the 2013 Lancet Series on maternal and child nutrition and identified the priority actions needed to regain and accelerate progress within the next decade.

101 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Abimbola et al. as discussed by the authors argue for a transformation in global health research and practice in the post-COVID-19 world, arguing for a new paradigm for health research.
Abstract: Seye Abimbola and co-authors argue for a transformation in global health research and practice in the post-COVID-19 world.

90 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the effect of energy poverty on health and education outcomes for 50 developing countries in the period 1990-2017, and empirically tested if the effect on development outcomes is conditioned by thresholds determined by the degree of poverty and income per capita.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantified the impact of the coronavirus-19 pandemic on the continuity of essential health services delivery, focusing on maternal and child health in eight sub-Saharan countries.
Abstract: The coronavirus-19 pandemic and its secondary effects threaten the continuity of essential health services delivery, which may lead to worsened population health and a protracted public health crisis. We quantify such disruptions, focusing on maternal and child health, in eight sub-Saharan countries. Service volumes are extracted from administrative systems for 63 954 facilities in eight countries: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Somalia. Using an interrupted time series design and an ordinary least squares regression model with facility-level fixed effects, we analyze data from January 2018 to February 2020 to predict what service utilization levels would have been in March-July 2020 in the absence of the pandemic, accounting for both secular trends and seasonality. Estimates of disruption are derived by comparing the predicted and observed service utilization levels during the pandemic period. All countries experienced service disruptions for at least 1 month, but the magnitude and duration of the disruptions vary. Outpatient consultations and child vaccinations were the most commonly affected services and fell by the largest margins. We estimate a cumulative shortfall of 5 149 491 outpatient consultations and 328 961 third-dose pentavalent vaccinations during the 5 months in these eight countries. Decreases in maternal health service utilization are less generalized, although significant declines in institutional deliveries, antenatal care and postnatal care were detected in some countries. There is a need to better understand the factors determining the magnitude and duration of such disruptions in order to design interventions that would respond to the shortfall in care. Service delivery modifications need to be both highly contextualized and integrated as a core component of future epidemic response and planning.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an early assessment with cross-national evidence on the causal impacts of COVID-19 on air pollution and find that mobility restrictions following the lockdowns are a possible explanation for improved air quality.

Journal ArticleDOI
Alvaro Espitia1, Aaditya Mattoo1, Nadia Rocha1, Michele Ruta1, Deborah Winkler1 
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the trade effects of COVID-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020.
Abstract: This paper studies the trade effects of COVID-19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector-level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by COVID-19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders' vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the role of agriculture as a source of employment in the future and review several policy options, including inclusive value chain development, better immigration policies, social insurance schemes, and ramp up in agricultural education and extension.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the extent and consistency of evidence for different types of impacts (in terms of direction and statistical significance) is discussed, which reveals considerable heterogeneity and highlights important knowledge gaps that remain despite rapidly expanding energy scholarship.
Abstract: Energy has been called the “golden thread” that connects economic growth, social equity and environmental sustainability, but important knowledge gaps exist on the impacts of low- and middle-income country energy interventions and transitions. This study offers perhaps the broadest characterization to date of the patterns and consistency in quantitative and peer-reviewed social science literature considering such impacts. Starting from approximately 80,000 papers identified using a search procedure organized along energy services, technology, and impact dimensions, and structured to achieve breadth and replicability, articles were first screened to yield a relevant subset of 3,000 quantitative papers. Relevance is defined as providing one or more types of impacts on intra-household, household, firm, public service, national economy, or environmental outcomes. A set of heat maps highlights areas of concentration in the literature, namely work that emphasizes the negative health and pollution effects of traditional cooking and fossil fuel use. The extent and consistency of evidence for different types of impacts (in terms of direction and statistical significance) is also discussed, which reveals considerable heterogeneity and highlights important knowledge gaps that remain despite rapidly expanding energy scholarship. The patterns of evidence are also surprisingly consistent across methods. The article concludes by articulating several research challenges that should motivate current and future generations of energy and development scholars.


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The current finance gap is large; this work identifies key barriers to financing a sustainable ocean economy and suggests how to mitigate them, to incentivize the kind of public and private investments needed for topnotch science and management in support of austainable ocean economy.
Abstract: The ocean, which regulates climate and supports vital ecosystem services, is crucial to our Earth system and livelihoods. Yet, it is threatened by anthropogenic pressures and climate change. A healthy ocean that supports a sustainable ocean economy requires adequate financing vehicles that generate, invest, align, and account for financial capital to achieve sustained ocean health and governance. However, the current finance gap is large; we identify key barriers to financing a sustainable ocean economy and suggest how to mitigate them, to incentivize the kind of public and private investments needed for topnotch science and management in support of a sustainable ocean economy.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors experimentally introduced mobile banking to very poor rural households and family members who had migrated to the city, testing whether mobile technology can reduce inequality by modernizing traditional ways to transfer money.
Abstract: Rapid urbanization is reshaping economies and intensifying spatial inequalities. In Bangladesh, we experimentally introduced mobile banking to very poor rural households and family members who had migrated to the city, testing whether mobile technology can reduce inequality by modernizing traditional ways to transfer money. One year later, for active mobile banking users, urban-to-rural remittances increased by 26 percent of the baseline mean. Rural consumption increased by 7.5 percent, and extreme poverty fell. Rural households borrowed less, saved more, sent additional migrants, and consumed more in the lean season. Urban migrants experienced less poverty and saved more but bore costs, reporting worse health.

Journal ArticleDOI
10 Mar 2021-Nature
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of human capital in explaining income differences across countries ranges from a fifth to half; this result has an intermediate position in the wide range of estimates provided in earlier papers in the literature.
Abstract: Human capital—that is, resources associated with the knowledge and skills of individuals—is a critical component of economic development1,2. Learning metrics that are comparable for countries globally are necessary to understand and track the formation of human capital. The increasing use of international achievement tests is an important step in this direction3. However, such tests are administered primarily in developed countries4, limiting our ability to analyse learning patterns in developing countries that may have the most to gain from the formation of human capital. Here we bridge this gap by constructing a globally comparable database of 164 countries from 2000 to 2017. The data represent 98% of the global population and developing economies comprise two-thirds of the included countries. Using this dataset, we show that global progress in learning—a priority Sustainable Development Goal—has been limited, despite increasing enrolment in primary and secondary education. Using an accounting exercise that includes a direct measure of schooling quality, we estimate that the role of human capital in explaining income differences across countries ranges from a fifth to half; this result has an intermediate position in the wide range of estimates provided in earlier papers in the literature5–13. Moreover, we show that average estimates mask considerable heterogeneity associated with income grouping across countries and regions. This heterogeneity highlights the importance of including countries at various stages of economic development when analysing the role of human capital in economic development. Finally, we show that our database provides a measure of human capital that is more closely associated with economic growth than current measures that are included in the Penn world tables version 9.014 and the human development index of the United Nations15.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a systematic literature review on digital innovation in Small and Medium-SMEs is presented, which aims to synthesize previous research and identify knowledge gaps and future knowledge gaps.
Abstract: This paper presents a systematic literature review on digital innovation in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). It aims to synthesize previous research and identify knowledge gaps and future...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a systematic review assesses end user's values and preferences related to human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling and DNA testing for women aged ≥ 30 years.
Abstract: Introduction The WHO recommends human papillomavirus (HPV) cervical self-sampling as an additional screening method and HPV DNA testing as an effective approach for the early detection of cervical cancer for women aged ≥30 years. This systematic review assesses end user’s values and preferences related to HPV self-sampling. Methods We searched four electronic databases (PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature and Embase) using search terms for HPV and self-sampling to identify articles meeting inclusion criteria. A standardised data extraction form was used to capture study setting, population, sample size and results related to values and preferences. Results Of 1858 records retrieved, 72 studies among 52 114 participants published between 2002 and 2018 were included in this review. Almost all studies were cross-sectional surveys. Study populations included end users who were mainly adolescent girls and adult women. Ages ranged from 14 to 80 years. Most studies (57%) were conducted in high-income countries. Women generally found HPV self-sampling highly acceptable regardless of age, income or country of residence. Lack of self-confidence with collecting a reliable sample was the most commonly cited reason for preferring clinician-collected samples. Most women preferred home-based self-sampling to self-sampling at a clinic. The cervical swab was the most common and most accepted HPV DNA sampling device. Conclusions HPV self-sampling is generally a highly accepted method of cervical cancer screening for end users globally. End user preferences for self-sampling device, method and setting can inform the development of new and expanded interventions to increase HPV screening.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Vaccination plus Decarceration With the rollout of Covid vaccines, public debate regarding health in jails and prisons has increasingly shifted from decarceration toward vaccination of incarcerated individuals.
Abstract: Vaccination plus Decarceration With the rollout of Covid vaccines, public debate regarding health in jails and prisons has increasingly shifted from decarceration toward vaccination of incarcerated...

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Jun 2021-PLOS ONE
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of masks on COVID-19 outcomes was investigated by investigating an unprecedented breadth and depth of health outcomes, geographical resolutions, types of mask mandates, early versus later waves and controlling for other government interventions, mobility testing rate and weather.
Abstract: We extend previous studies on the impact of masks on COVID-19 outcomes by investigating an unprecedented breadth and depth of health outcomes, geographical resolutions, types of mask mandates, early versus later waves and controlling for other government interventions, mobility testing rate and weather. We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. These effects are large, corresponding to 14% of the highest recorded number of cases, 13% of deaths, and 7% of admission proportion. We also find that mask mandates are linked to a 23.4 percentage point increase in mask adherence in four diverse states. Given the recent lifting of mandates, we estimate that the ending of mask mandates in these states is associated with a decrease of -3.19 percentage points in mask adherence and 12 per 100K (13% of the highest recorded number) of daily new cases with no significant effect on hospitalizations and deaths. Lastly, using a large novel survey dataset of 847 thousand responses in 69 countries, we introduce the novel results that community mask adherence and community attitudes towards masks are associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our results have policy implications for reinforcing the need to maintain and encourage mask-wearing by the public, especially in light of some states starting to remove their mask mandates.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, an umbrella review was conducted on meta-analyses of cohort, case control, case-crossover, and time-series studies that evaluated the associations between environmental risk factors and health outcomes defined as incidence, prevalence, and mortality.
Abstract: Background: Environmental health is a growing area of knowledge, continually increasing and updating the body of evidence linking the environment to human health. Aim: This study summarizes the epidemiological evidence on environmental risk factors from meta-analyses through an umbrella review. Methods: An umbrella review was conducted on meta-analyses of cohort, case-control, case-crossover, and time-series studies that evaluated the associations between environmental risk factors and health outcomes defined as incidence, prevalence, and mortality. The specific search strategy was designed in PubMed using free text and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms related to risk factors, environment, health outcomes, observational studies, and meta-analysis. The search was limited to English, Spanish, and French published articles and studies on humans. The search was conducted on September 20, 2020. Risk factors were defined as any attribute, characteristic, or exposure of an individual that increases the likelihood of developing a disease or death. The environment was defined as the external elements and conditions that surround, influence, and affect a human organism or population’s life and development. The environment definition included the physical environment such as nature, built environment, or pollution, but not the social environment. We excluded occupational exposures, microorganisms, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), behavioral risk factors, and no-natural disasters. Results: This umbrella review found 197 associations among 69 environmental exposures and 83 diseases and death causes reported in 103 publications. The environmental factors found in this review were air pollution, environmental tobacco smoke, heavy metals, chemicals, ambient temperature, noise, radiation, and urban residential surroundings. Among these, we identified 65 environmental exposures defined as risk factors and 4 environmental protective factors. In terms of study design, 57 included cohort and/or case-control studies, and 46 included time-series and/or case-crossover studies. In terms of the study population, 21 included children, and the rest included adult population and both sexes. In this review, the largest body of evidence was found in air pollution (91 associations among 14 air pollution definitions and 34 diseases and mortality diagnoses), followed by environmental tobacco smoke with 24 associations. Chemicals (including pesticides) were the third larger group of environmental exposures found among the meta-analyses included, with 19 associations. Conclusion: Environmental exposures are an important health determinant. This review provides an overview of an evolving research area and should be used as a complementary tool to understand the connections between the environment and human health. The evidence presented by this review should help to design public health interventions and the implementation of health in all policies approach aiming to improve populational health.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A major disconnect in knowledge, understanding and capacity to understand and address this critical environmental and public health issue is identified and a need for further work to monitor and model riverine plastic transport and examine the implications for aquatic organisms is identified.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the impact of eco-industrial parks (EIPs) on economic competitiveness and environmental performance, and found that the EIP interventions have improved both environmental and competitiveness performances.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The first comprehensive analysis of terrestrial mammal composition across mapped Indigenous lands based on data on area of habitat (AOH) for 4460 mammal species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature finds that 935 mammal species had ≥ 10% of their range on Indigenous Peoples’ lands that had low human pressure.
Abstract: Indigenous Peoples’ lands cover over one‐quarter of Earth's surface, a significant proportion of which is still free from industrial‐level human impacts. As a result, Indigenous Peoples and their lands are crucial for the long‐term persistence of Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, information on species composition within Indigenous Peoples’ lands globally remains largely unknown. Here, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of terrestrial mammal composition across mapped Indigenous lands by using area of habitat data for 4,460 IUCN‐assessed mammal species. We estimated that 2,175 species (49%) have ≥ 10% of their ranges in Indigenous Peoples’ lands, and 646 species (14%) have > half of their ranges within these lands. For the threatened species assessed, 413 (41%) occur in Indigenous Peoples’ lands. We also found that 935 mammal species (of which 131 are threatened with extinction) have ≥ 10% of their range in Indigenous Peoples’ lands that have low human pressure. This analysis shows how important Indigenous Peoples and their lands are to the successful implementation of international conservation and sustainable development agendas.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The positive impact of SQ-LNS on growth is apparent across a wide variety of study-level contexts and policy-makers and program planners should consider including it in the mix of interventions to prevent both stunting and wasting.