Showing papers by "World Health Organization published in 2006"

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

Abstract: Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current burden and future projections

Abstract: SERIES “THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE” Edited by K.F. Rabe and J.B. Soriano Number 2 in this Series ### Summary ⇓Information about the comparative magnitude of the burden from various diseases and injuries is a critical input into building the evidence base for health policies and programmes. Such information should be based on a critical evaluation of all available epidemiological data using standard and comparable procedures across diseases and injuries, including information on the age at death and the incidence, duration and severity of cases who do not die prematurely from the disease. A summary measure, disability-adjusted life yrs (DALYs), has been developed to simultaneously measure the amount of disease burden due to premature mortality and the amount due to the nonfatal consequences of disease. Approximately 2.7 million deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) occurred in 2000, half of them in the Western Pacific Region, with the majority of these occurring in China. About 400,000 deaths occur each year from COPD in industrialised countries. The increase in global COPD deaths between 1990 and 2000 (0.5 million) is likely to be partly real, and partly due to better methods and more extensive data availability in 2000. The regional (adult) prevalence in 2000 varied from 0.5% in parts of Africa to 3–4% in North America. ### Introduction Health systems must increasingly address a broad spectrum of health issues, ranging from epidemic outbreaks to advanced therapeutic care. They must, or should, also support disease prevention and health-promotion activities. Recognising that resources for health were unlikely to grow as quickly as demand, in 1993, the World Bank proposed a series of intervention packages for countries at different stages of development which, if implemented, would probably lead to the greatest gains in population health at affordable cost. The evidence for these recommendations was based …

Development of the world health organization global physical activity questionnaire (gpaq)

Abstract: The aim of developing the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) was to have a tool that would produce valid and reliable estimates of physical activity, especially relevant to developing countries where patterns of energy expenditure differ from developed countries because people experience diverse ways of life. The development of a standardized tool to measure physical activity that enables comparisons across culturally diverse populations is a challenging task. Comparable, valid, and reliable information on physical activity enables countries to follow trends over time, understand regional and global comparisons, and better inform physical activity policy decisions. A WHO expert working group on physical activity measurement provided a draft GPAQ for global consultation. The draft instrument was validated in nine countries. Validation studies and qualitative feedback on GPAQ were presented at an Expert Meeting on Global Physical Activity Surveillance held jointly by WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A second round of global consultation led to minor revisions and preparation of a final GPAQ version 2 instrument (GPAQv2). Around 50 developing countries are now using GPAQ for physical activity data collection. GPAQv2 is a suitable physical activity surveillance instrument for developing countries.

International commission on non-ionizing radiation protection.

Abstract: .........................................................................................................................................................322 III.

Fluorescence versus conventional sputum smear microscopy for tuberculosis: a systematic review.

Abstract: Most of the world's tuberculosis cases occur in low-income and middle-income countries, where sputum microscopy with a conventional light microscope is the primary method for diagnosing pulmonary tuberculosis. A major shortcoming of conventional microscopy is its relatively low sensitivity compared with culture, especially in patients co-infected with HIV. In high-income countries, fluorescence microscopy rather than conventional microscopy is the standard diagnostic method. Fluorescence microscopy is credited with increased sensitivity and lower work effort, but there is concern that specificity may be lower. We did a systematic review to summarise the accuracy of fluorescence microscopy compared with conventional microscopy. By searching many databases and contacting experts, we identified 45 relevant studies. Sensitivity, specificity, and incremental yield were the outcomes of interest. The results suggest that, overall, fluorescence microscopy is more sensitive than conventional microscopy, and has similar specificity. There is insufficient evidence to determine the value of fluorescence microscopy in HIV-infected individuals. The results of this review provide a point of reference, quantifying the potential benefit of fluorescence microscopy, with which the increased cost and technical complexity of the method can be compared to determine the possible value of the method under programme conditions.

Stroke incidence and prevalence in Europe: a review of available data

Abstract: Reliable data on stroke incidence and prevalence are essential for calculating the burden of stroke and the planning of prevention and treatment of stroke patients. In the current study we have reviewed the published data from EU countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland, and provide WHO estimates for stroke incidence and prevalence in these countries. Studies on stroke epidemiology published in peer-reviewed journals during the past 10 years were identified using Medline/PubMed searches, and reviewed using the structure of WHO's stroke component of the WHO InfoBase. WHO estimates for stroke incidence and prevalence for each country were calculated from routine mortality statistics. Rates from studies that met the 'ideal' criteria were compared with WHO's estimates. Forty-four incidence studies and 12 prevalence studies were identified. There were several methodological differences that hampered comparisons of data. WHO stroke estimates were in good agreement with results from 'ideal' stroke population studies. According to the WHO estimates the number of stroke events in these selected countries is likely to increase from 1.1 million per year in 2000 to more than 1.5 million per year in 2025 solely because of the demographic changes. Until better and more stroke studies are available, the WHO stroke estimates may provide the best data for understanding the stroke burden in countries where no stroke data currently exists. A standardized protocol for stroke surveillance is recommended.

Comparison of the World Health Organization (WHO) Child Growth Standards and the National Center for Health Statistics/WHO international growth reference: implications for child health programmes.

Abstract: Objectives: To compare growth patterns and estimates of malnutrition based on the World Health Organization (WHO) Child Growth Standards (‘the WHO standards’) and the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)/WHO international growth reference (‘the NCHS reference’), and discuss implications for child health programmes. Design: Secondary analysis of longitudinal data to compare growth patterns (birth to 12 months) and data from two cross-sectional surveys to compare estimates of malnutrition among under-fives. Settings: Bangladesh, Dominican Republic and a pooled sample of infants from North America and Northern Europe. Subjects: Respectively 4787, 10 381 and 226 infants and children. Results: Healthy breast-fed infants tracked along the WHO standard’s weight-for-age mean Z-score while appearing to falter on the NCHS reference from 2 months onwards. Underweight rates increased during the first six months and thereafter decreased when based on the WHO standards. For all age groups stunting rates were higher according to the WHO standards. Wasting and severe wasting were substantially higher during the first half of infancy. Thereafter, the prevalence of severe wasting continued to be 1.5 to 2.5 times that of the NCHS reference. The increase in overweight rates based on the WHO standards varied by age group, with an overall relative increase of 34%. Conclusions: The WHO standards provide a better tool to monitor the rapid and changing rate of growth in early infancy. Their adoption will have important implications for child health with respect to the assessment of lactation performance and the adequacy of infant feeding. Population estimates of malnutrition will vary by age, growth indicator and the nutritional status of index populations.

Pelvic Inflammatory Disease

Abstract: Pelvic inflammatory disease can produce acute symptoms and result in infertility, ectopic pregnancy, and chronic pelvic pain. This review summarizes current approaches to diagnosis and treatment and the future prospects for better prevention strategies.

International standards for tuberculosis care.

Abstract: Part of the reason for failing to bring about a more rapid reduction in tuberculosis incidence worldwide is the lack of effective involvement of all practitioners-public and private-in the provision of high quality tuberculosis care. While health-care providers who are part of national tuberculosis programmes have been trained and are expected to have adopted proper diagnosis, treatment, and public-health practices, the same is not likely to be true for non-programme providers. Studies of the performance of the private sector conducted in several different parts of the world suggest that poor quality care is common. The basic principles of care for people with, or suspected of having, tuberculosis are the same worldwide: a diagnosis should be established promptly; standardised treatment regimens should be used with appropriate treatment support and supervision; response to treatment should be monitored; and essential public-health responsibilities must be carried out. Prompt and accurate diagnosis, and effective treatment are essential for good patient care and tuberculosis control. All providers who undertake evaluation and treatment of patients with tuberculosis must recognise that not only are they delivering care to an individual, but they are also assuming an important public-health function. The International Standards for Tuberculosis Care (ISTC) describe a widely endorsed level of care that all practitioners should seek to achieve in managing individuals who have, or are suspected of having, tuberculosis. The document is intended to engage all care providers in delivering high quality care for patients of all ages, including those with smear-positive, smear-negative, and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, tuberculosis caused by drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, and tuberculosis combined with HIV infection.

WHO systematic review of prevalence of chronic pelvic pain: a neglected reproductive health morbidity.

Abstract: Health care planning for chronic pelvic pain (CPP), an important cause of morbidity amongst women is hampered due to lack of clear collated summaries of its basic epidemiological data. We systematically reviewed worldwide literature on the prevalence of different types of CPP to assess the geographical distribution of data, and to explore sources of variation in its estimates. We identified data available from Medline (1966 to 2004), Embase (1980 to 2004), PsycINFO (1887 to 2003), LILACS (1982 to 2004), Science Citation index, CINAHL (January 1980 to 2004) and hand searching of reference lists. Two reviewers extracted data independently, using a piloted form, on participants' characteristics, study quality and rates of CPP. We considered a study to be of high quality (valid) if had at least three of the following features: prospective design, validated measurement tool, adequate sampling method, sample size estimation and response rate >80%. We performed both univariate and multivariate meta-regression analysis to explore heterogeneity of results across studies. There were 178 studies (459975 participants) in 148 articles. Of these, 106 studies were (124259 participants) on dysmenorrhoea, 54 (35973 participants) on dyspareunia and 18 (301756 participants) on noncyclical pain. There were only 19/95 (20%) less developed and 1/45 (2.2%) least developed countries with relevant data in contrast to 22/43 (51.2%) developed countries. Meta-regression analysis showed that rates of pain varied according to study quality features. There were 40 (22.5%) high quality studies with representative samples. Amongst them, the rate of dysmenorrhoea was 16.8 to 81%, that of dyspareunia was 8 to 21.8%, and that for noncyclical pain was 2.1 to 24%. There were few valid population based estimates of disease burden due to CPP from less developed countries. The variation in rates of CPP worldwide was due to variable study quality. Where valid data were available, a high disease burden of all types of pelvic pain was found.

Sputum processing methods to improve the sensitivity of smear microscopy for tuberculosis: a systematic review

Abstract: In low-income and middle-income countries, direct (unconcentrated) sputum smear microscopy is the primary method for diagnosing pulmonary tuberculosis. The method is fast, inexpensive, and specific for Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high incidence areas. The main limitations of direct microscopy are its relatively low sensitivity, especially in individuals co-infected with HIV, and variable quality of the test in programme conditions. Thus, there is a need to identify methods to improve the sensitivity of microscopy. Physical and chemical sputum processing methods, including centrifugation, sedimentation, and bleach, have been studied and found to show promise. We did a systematic review to assess the ability of different processing methods to improve the sensitivity of microscopy. By searching many sources, we identified 83 studies. Overall, by comparison with direct smears, the results suggested that centrifugation with any of several chemical methods (including bleach) is more sensitive, that overnight sedimentation preceded by chemical processing is more sensitive, and that specificity is similar. There were insufficient data to determine the value of sputum processing methods in patients with HIV infection. Operational studies are needed to determine whether the increased sensitivity provided by processing methods is sufficient to offset their increased cost, complexity, and potential biohazards, and to examine their feasibility.

Global Incidence of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis

Abstract: Background. The global number of incident cases of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) in 2000 was estimated to be 272,906 (95% confidence interval [CI], 184,948‐414,295). For accurate planning of TB control programs, this estimate and others have been revised using data from additional countries and by including in the model previously treated TB cases, which had not been accounted for in the previous analysis. Methods. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify variables that were predictive of MDR-TB frequency among new and previously treated cases surveyed in 90 and 77 countries, respectively. These variables were then used to estimate MDR-TB frequencies in countries that had not been surveyed. Results. The total number of MDR-TB cases estimated to have occurred worldwide in 2004 is 424,203 (95% CI, 376,019‐620,061), or 4.3% (95% CI, 3.8%‐6.1%) of all new and previously treated TB cases. In the same year, 181,408 (95% CI, 135,276‐319,017) MDR-TB cases were estimated to have occurred among previously treated TB cases alone. Three countries—China, India, and the Russian Federation—accounted for 261,362 (95% CI, 180,779‐414,749) MDR-TB cases, or 62% of the estimated global burden. Conclusions. These updated sets of estimates incorporating previously treated TB cases call for an urgent plan to expand appropriate diagnostic and treatment services for patients with MDR-TB in low-resource settings. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) presents a formidable challenge to TB control in several settings,

Innovative lead discovery strategies for tropical diseases.

Abstract: Lead discovery is currently a key bottleneck in the pipeline for much-needed novel drugs for tropical diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, African sleeping sickness, leishmaniasis and Chagas disease. Here, we discuss the different approaches to lead discovery for tropical diseases and emphasize a coordination strategy that involves highly integrated partnerships and networks between scientists in academic institutions and industry in both wealthy industrialized countries and disease-endemic countries. This strategy offers the promise of reducing the inherently high attrition rate of the early stages of discovery research, thereby increasing the chances of success and enhancing cost-effectiveness.

Rapid tests for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) : the way forward

Abstract: In the developing world, laboratory services for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are either not available, or where limited services are available, patients may not be able to pay for or physically access those services. Despite the existence of national policy for antenatal screening to prevent congenital syphilis and substantial evidence that antenatal screening is cost-effective, implementation of syphilis screening programmes remains unacceptably low because of lack of screening tools that can be used in primary health care settings. The World Health Organization Sexually Transmitted Diseases Diagnostics Initiative (SDI) has developed the ASSURED criteria as a benchmark to decide if tests address disease control needs: Affordable, Sensitive, Specific, User-friendly, Rapid and robust, Equipment-free and Deliverable to end-users. Rapid syphilis tests that can be used with whole blood approach the ASSURED criteria and can now be deployed in areas where no previous screening has been possible. Although rapid tests for chlamydia and gonorrhoea lack sensitivity, more tests are in development. The way forward for STI diagnostics requires a continuing quest for ASSURED tests, the development of a road map for test introduction, sustainable programmes for quality assurance, and the creation of a robust infrastructure linked to HIV prevention that ensures sustainability of STI control efforts that includes viral STIs.

IPCS framework for analyzing the relevance of a noncancer mode of action for humans.

Abstract: Structured frameworks are extremely useful in promoting transparent, harmonized approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals. One area where this has been particularly successful is in the analysis of modes of action (MOAs) for chemical carcinogens in experimental animals and their relevance to humans. The International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS) recently published an updated version of its MOA framework in animals to address human relevance (cancer human relevance framework, or HRF). This work has now been extended to noncancer effects, with the eventual objective of harmonizing framework approaches to both cancer and noncancer endpoints. As in the cancer HRF, the first step is to determine whether the weight of evidence based on experimental observations is sufficient to establish a hypothesized MOA. This comprises a series of key events causally related to the toxic effect, identified using an approach based on the Bradford Hill criteria. These events are then compared qualitatively and, next, quantitatively between experimental animals and humans. The output of the analysis is a clear statement of conclusions, together with the confidence, analysis, and implications of the findings. This framework provides a means of ensuring a transparent evaluation of the data, identification of key data gaps and of information that would be of value in the further risk assessment of the compound, such as on dose-response relationships, and recognition of potentially susceptible subgroups, for example, based on life-stage considerations.

Workgroup Report: Public Health Strategies for Reducing Aflatoxin Exposure in Developing Countries

Abstract: Consecutive outbreaks of acute aflatoxicosis in Kenya in 2004 and 2005 caused > 150 deaths. In response, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization convened a workgroup of international experts and health officials in Geneva, Switzerland, in July 2005. After discussions concerning what is known about aflatoxins, the workgroup identified gaps in current knowledge about acute and chronic human health effects of aflatoxins, surveillance and food monitoring, analytic methods, and the efficacy of intervention strategies. The workgroup also identified public health strategies that could be integrated with current agricultural approaches to resolve gaps in current knowledge and ultimately reduce morbidity and mortality associated with the consumption of aflatoxin-contaminated food in the developing world. Four issues that warrant immediate attention were identified: a) quantify the human health impacts and the burden of disease due to aflatoxin exposure; b) compile an inventory, evaluate the efficacy, and disseminate results of ongoing intervention strategies; c) develop and augment the disease surveillance, food monitoring, laboratory, and public health response capacity of affected regions; and d) develop a response protocol that can be used in the event of an outbreak of acute aflatoxicosis. This report expands on the workgroup's discussions concerning aflatoxin in developing countries and summarizes the findings.

The Potential Impact of Male Circumcision on HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: Background A randomized controlled trial (RCT) has shown that male circumcision (MC) reduces sexual transmission of HIV from women to men by 60% (32%� 76%; 95% CI) offering an intervention of proven efficacy for reducing the sexual spread of HIV. We explore the implications of this finding for the promotion of MC as a public health intervention to control HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods and Findings Using dynamical simulation models we consider the impact of MC on the relative prevalence of HIV in men and women and in circumcised and uncircumcised men. Using country level data on HIV prevalence and MC, we estimate the impact of increasing MC coverage on HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, and HIV-related deaths over the next ten, twenty, and thirty years in sub-Saharan Africa. Assuming that full coverage of MC is achieved over the next ten years, we consider three scenarios in which the reduction in transmission is given by the best estimate and the upper and lower 95% confidence limits of the reduction in transmission observed in the RCT. MC could avert 2.0 (1.1� 3.8) million new HIV infections and 0.3 (0.1� 0.5) million deaths over the next ten years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the ten years after that, it could avert a further 3.7 (1.9� 7.5) million new HIV infections and 2.7 (1.5� 5.3) million deaths, with about one quarter of all the incident cases prevented and the deaths averted occurring in South Africa. We show that a) MC will increase the proportion of infected people who are women from about 52% to 58%; b) where there is homogenous mixing but not all men are circumcised, the prevalence of infection in circumcised men is likely to be about 80% of that in uncircumcised men; c) MC is equivalent to an intervention, such as a vaccine or increased condom use, that reduces transmission in both directions by 37%.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza, national and community measures

Abstract: The World Health Organization’s recommended pandemic influenza interventions, based on limited data, vary by transmission pattern, pandemic phase, and illness severity and extent. In the pandemic alert period, recommendations include isolation of patients and quarantine of contacts, accompanied by antiviral therapy. During the pandemic period, the focus shifts to delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. Ill persons should remain home when they first became symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical. If the pandemic is severe, social distancing measures such as school closures should be considered. Nonessential domestic travel to affected areas should be deferred. Hand and respiratory hygiene should be routine; mask use should be based on setting and risk, and contaminated household surfaces should be disinfected. Additional research and field assessments during pandemics are essential to update recommendations. Legal authority and procedures for implementing interventions should be understood in advance and should respect cultural differences and human rights.

Evaluation of diagnostic tests for infectious diseases: general principles

Abstract: Evaluation of diagnostic tests for infectious diseases: General principles. The TDR Diagnostics Evaluation Expert Panel.