Showing papers by "World Institute for Development Economics Research published in 2000"

Information Technology and Economic Growth. A Cross-Country Analysis

Abstract: This paper explores the impacts of informatin technology investment on economic groth in a cross-section of 39 countries in the period 1980-95 by applying an explicit model of economic growth, the augmented version of the neoclassical (Solow) growth model.

Structural Characteristics of the Economy of Mozambique: A SAM-based Analysis

Abstract: Key features of the Mozambican economy are synthesized in this paper based on a new 1995 social accounting matrix. Particular attention is paid to the critical role of home consumption and large marketing margins. The fundamental importance of agricultural development emerges clearly from the analysis in which the multiplier for value added by capital is re-examined. Agriculture has large sectoral multipliers and is generally more effective in the use of scarce capital than industry and services. Commodities with attractive features for the promotion of agriculture in the short to medium term include maize, rice, as well as small-scale livestock and forestry.

Information technology and economic growth : a cross-country analysis

Abstract: This paper explores the impacts of information technology investment on economic growth in a cross-section of 39 countries in the period 1980-95 by applying an explicit model of economic growth, the augmented version of the neoclassical (Solow) growth mod

Fiscal Policy and Structural Reforms in Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract: This paper provides an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that privatization and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. This finding provides support for ideas in theoretical transition economics that maintain that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. In contrast, price liberalization has a robust positive impact on fiscal performance. In addition, the results differ somewhat over different countries and transition time.

The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment

Abstract: South Africa now stands at the brink of a full-blown AIDS crisis. Recent demographic work summarized in two reports prepared by ING Barings (1999, 2000) estimates that, since the onset of the AIDS epidemic, more than 500,000 South Africans have died of AIDS-related causes. By 2015, this number is projected to grow by a factor of 20, to more than 10 million deaths. By 2008, overall life expectancy in South Africa is forecast to fall from its pre-epidemic high of 65 years to only 40 years. While modification of high-risk behaviours could reduce AIDS-related death rates, the long delays between infection and death mean that behaviour change now would only beg in to reduce the number of AIDS deaths in five years time with the full affect lagging by a decade or more. With an HIV infection rate currently estimated at almost 20 per cent of the adult population (and projected to increase), prospects for avoiding a major human development crisis over the coming decades are dim. The key question now is how to deal with the impending crisis. The epidemic has moved beyond its earlier status as a health issue to become a development issue, with social, political, and economic dimensions. This paper focuses on the economic aspects. As we begin to recognize the magnitude of the crisis (as measured by the number of AIDS-related deaths), characteristics of those affected (adults in their prime working years), and the many different channels through which the epidemic impacts on the economy (skills availability, savings, demand patterns, productivity, etc.), it is important to try to sort through and evaluate how these myriad of factors are likely to affect key economic outcomes: sustainable growth, employment creation, poverty and income distribution. In addition, it is critical to consider public policy choices in the context of the epidemic.

Economic Value of Climate Forecasts for Agricultural Systems in Africa

Abstract: A thorough review of the advances made so far in seasonal climate predictions and their applications for management and decision-making in agriculture.A practical tool for decision-makers, this book identifies the challenges to be addressed in the next 5 to 10 years, especially in developing countries.In an age of such uncertainty over climate change, there are few more important issues than that of how we feed ourselves.We need to know more about the potential impact of climate uncertainty on our food supplies – and this book is an important addition to the literature in this field.Improved adaptation of food production, particularly in areas where climate variability is large, holds the key to improving food security for human populations.Increasing climate knowledge and improved prediction capabilities facilitate the development of relevant climate information and prediction products for applications in agriculture. This in turn reduces the negative impacts due to climate variations and enhances planning activities based on the developing capacity of climate science.This book, based on an International Workshop held in Geneva in 2005, reviews the advances made so far in seasonal climate predictions and their applications for management and decision-making in agriculture.It also identifies the challenges to be addressed in the next 5 to 10 years to further enhance operational applications of climate predictions in agriculture.

Fuelwood Consumption and Forest Degradation: A Household Model for Domestic Energy Substitution in Rural India

Abstract: This paper discusses domestic energy supply and demand in rural India. Links between forest scarcity and household fuel collection are analyzed in a non-separable household model, focusing on substitution of non-commercial fuels from the commons and the private domain. Based on data from villages bordering a protected area, a novel maximum entropy approach is used for estimation. It is found that households respond to forest scarcity and increased fuelwood collection time by substituting fuels from private sources for forest fuelwood. However, the magnitude of the response appears insufficient to prevent current fuelwood collection practices from causing serious forest degradation.

Marketing Margins and Agricultural Technology in Mozambique

Abstract: Improvements in agricultural productivity and reductions in marketing costs in Mozambique are analysed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model incorporates detailed marketing margins and separates household demand for marketed and home-produced goods. Individual simulations of improved agricultural technology and lower marketing margins yield welfare gains across the economy. In addition, a combined scenario reveals significant synergy effects, as gains exceed the sum of gains from the individual scenarios. Relative welfare improvements are higher for poor rural households, while factor returns increase in roughly equal proportions, an attractive feature when assessing the political feasibility of policy initiatives.

Aid and Public Sector Behavior in Developing Countries

Abstract: This paper analyzes developing-country public-sector fiscal behavior. It is concerned specifically with how aid inflows affect various categories of revenue and expenditure. An econometric model is developed, which differs from those used in previous studies by allowing domestic borrowing to finance both capital and recurrent expenditure. Structural and reduced-form equations are derived and estimated using 1956-95 time-series data for Pakistan. Results indicate that aid is allocated mainly to investment, is positively associated with both investment and consumption expenditure, and has no final impact on taxation.

Stabilization and Structural Adjustment in Mozambique: An Appraisal

Abstract: This paper outlines the complex historical legacy and structural adjustment efforts in Mozambique in addition to reviewing recent economic developments. An in-depth analysis of new and more reliable national accounts data show that macroeconomic stabilization has occurred through recovery from a suppressed outset. Yet, easy import substitution has now been used up, and structural transformation on the export side remains to be addressed. Moreover, a coherent development strategy geared towards poverty reduction is still to be implemented. The government budget also remains problematic, and aid dependency continues. Accordingly, fundamental development challenges lie ahead.

International Monetary Fund, University of Essex and Institute for Fiscal Studies

Abstract: The established theory of tax progressivity cannot handle basic tax reform questions, such as whether an increase in personal allowances makes the tax system more progressive, because the core results assume that tax liability is never zero. This paper generalises the core theory to allow for zero tax payments, and applies the new framework to the analysis of allowances, income-related deductions and tax credits. Log concavity of the tax schedule - a property quite distinct from any existing notion of progressivity - emerges as the critical determinant of whether the distribution of the tax burden becomes more progressive as allowances are increased.