York University

About: York University is a education organization based out in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Politics. The organization has 18899 authors who have published 43357 publications receiving 1568560 citations.

A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion

Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to evaluate contagion in financial markets. Our measure of contagion captures the co-incidence of extreme return shocks across countries within a region and across regions that cannot be explained by linear propagation models of shocks. We characterize the extent of contagion, its economic significance, and its determinants using a multinomial logistic regression model. Applying our approach to daily returns of emerging markets during the 1990s, we find that contagion, when measured by the co-incidence within and across regions of extreme return shocks, is predictable and depends on regional interest rates, exchange rate changes, and conditional stock return volatility. Evidence that contagion is stronger for extreme negative returns than for extreme positive returns is mixed.

Long-term Stability of Planets in Binary Systems

Abstract: A simple question of celestial mechanics is investigated: in what regions of phase space near a binary system can planets persist for long times? The planets are taken to be test particles moving in the field of an eccentric binary system. A range of values of the binary eccentricity and mass ratio is studied, and both the case of planets orbiting close to one of the stars, and that of planets outside the binary orbiting the systems center of mass, are examined. From the results, empirical expressions are developed for both (1) the largest orbit around each of the stars and (2) the smallest orbit around the binary system as a whole, in which test particles survive the length of the integration (10A4 binary periods). The empirical expressions developed, which are roughly linear in both the mass ratio mu and the binary eccentricity e, are determined for the range 0.0=e=0.7-0.8 and 0.1=mu=0.9 in both regions and can be used to guide searches for planets in binary systems. After considering the case of a single low-mass planet in binary systems, the stability of a mutually interacting system of planets orbiting one star of a binary system is examined, though in less detail.

Do biotic interactions shape both sides of the humped-back model of species richness in plant communities?

Abstract: A humped-back relationship between species richness and community biomass has frequently been observed in plant communities, at both local and regional scales, although often improperly called a productivity-diversity relationship. Explanations for this relationship have emphasized the role of competitive exclusion, probably because at the time when the relationship was first examined, competition was considered to be the significant biotic filter structuring plant communities. However, over the last 15 years there has been a renewed interest in facilitation and this research has shown a clear link between the role of facilitation in structuring communities and both community biomass and the severity of the environment. Although facilitation may enlarge the realized niche of species and increase community richness in stressful environments, there has only been one previous attempt to revisit the humped-back model of species richness and to include facilitative processes. However, to date, no model has explored whether biotic interactions can potentially shape both sides of the humped-back model for species richness commonly detected in plant communities. Here, we propose a revision of Grime's original model that incorporates a new understanding of the role of facilitative interactions in plant communities. In this revised model, facilitation promotes diversity at medium to high environmental severity levels, by expanding the realized niche of stress-intolerant competitive species into harsh physical conditions. However, when environmental conditions become extremely severe the positive effects of the benefactors wane (as supported by recent research on facilitative interactions in extremely severe environments) and diversity is reduced. Conversely, with decreasing stress along the biomass gradient, facilitation decreases because stress-intolerant species become able to exist away from the canopy of the stress-tolerant species (as proposed by facilitation theory). At the same time competition increases for stress-tolerant species, reducing diversity in the most benign conditions (as proposed by models of competition theory). In this way our inclusion of facilitation into the classic model of plant species diversity and community biomass generates a more powerful and richer predictive framework for understanding the role of plant interactions in changing diversity. We then use our revised model to explain both the observed discrepancies between natural patterns of species richness and community biomass and the results of experimental studies of the impact of biodiversity on the productivity of herbaceous communities. It is clear that explicit consideration of concurrent changes in stress-tolerant and competitive species enhances our capacity to explain and interpret patterns in plant community diversity with respect to environmental severity.