Showing papers in "African Development Review in 2004"

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

Abstract: This paper seeks to empirically explore the causal link between the level of financial development and economic growth in 13 sub-Saharan African countries. The empirical investigation is carried out in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on the theory of cointegration and error-correction representation of cointegrated variables. The results of the cointegration analysis provide evidence of the existence of a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth in almost all (12 out of 13) of the countries. With respect to the direction of long-term causality, the results show that financial development plays a causal role on economic growth, again in eight of the countries. At the same time, evidence of bidirectional causal relationships is found in six countries. The findings imply that African countries can accelerate their economic growth by improving their financial systems.

Productivity Growth, Technical Progress and Efficiency Change in African Agriculture

Abstract: The paper examines the economic performance of a large number of African countries using an international comparable data set and the latest technique for analysis. The paper focuses on growth in total factor productivity and its decomposition into technical change and efficiency change components. The analysis is undertaken using the data envelopment analysis (DEA). The present study uses data of 16 countries over the period 1970–2001. It was found that, globally, during that period, total factor productivity has experienced a positive evolution in sampled countries. This good performance of the agricultural sector was due to good progress in technical efficiency rather than technical progress. The region suffered a regression in productivity in the 1970s, and made some progress during the 1980s and 1990s. The study also highlights the fact that technical change has been the main constraint of achievement of high levels of total factor productivity during the reference period in sub-Saharan Africa. Contrariwise, in Maghreb countries, technological change has been the main driving force of productivity growth. Finally, the results indicate that institutional factors as well as agro-ecological factors are important determinants of agricultural productivity growth.

Challenges Facing Agricultural Extension Agents: A Case Study from South‐western Ethiopia

Abstract: This article examines the working conditions of extension workers and constraints to the adoption of modern agricultural technolo- gies/practices in south-western Ethiopia. Data collected from 85 exten- sion workers form the empirical basis for the study. The empirical results indicate that extension work in the study area has not been participatory in its nature, little consideration was given to farmers' experiences and knowledge, and extension workers lack practical skills. In addition to deciding on who should take part in the extension programme, extension agents are found to supply more services to those farmers who are financially sound and show interest in the programme. The study reveals that apart from the fact that the number of extension workers in the study area is very small, their qualification and communication skills leave a lot to be desired. The study makes it also clear that a host of factors obstructs the promotion/adoption of modern agricultural tech- nologies/practices in the study area. Resume´: Cet article analyse les conditions de travail des agents de vulgarisation et les obstacles al'adoption de techniques/pratiques agri- coles modernes dans la region sud-ouest de l'Ethiopie. Des donnees recueillies aupres de 85 agents de vulgarisation constituent le fondement empirique de l'etude. Les resultats empiriques indiquent que, dans la zone etudiee, le travail de vulgarisation ne revet pas un caractere par- ticipatif, l'experience et les connaissances des exploitants ne sont pas tellement prises en compte, et les agents de vulgarisation manquent de competences pratiques. Ces agents decident non seulement des exploi- tants appelesaparticiper au programme de formation, mais offrent egalement davantage de services aux exploitants financierement mieux nantis et montrant de l'interet pour ledit programme. L'etude revele que le nombre d'agents de vulgarisation dans la region concernee est tres

Determinants of Income Inequality and its Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from African Countries

Abstract: The paper empirically investigates, in the context of African countries, the determinants of income distribution and inequality, the effect of inequality on economic growth, and the channels through which inequality affects growth. Data for 35 countries over different periods in the last four decades were employed. Factors identified as having affected income distribution include the level of economic development attained, regional factors, size of government budget and the amount of it devoted to subsidies and transfers, phase of economic cycle, share of agricultural sector in total labour force, as well as human and land resources endowment. Some evidence that high inequality reduces growth is also found. The channels through which inequality affect growth are found to be through reduction in secondary and tertiary education investment, reduction in political stability, and increase in fertility rate. There is, however, no evidence that it affects private saving and investment or the size of government expenditure and taxation, contrary to what is contended in the theoretical literature.

Human Capital and Systems of Innovation in African Development

Abstract: In this paper we propose that historically generated institutions and persistent pattern of human capital formation condition the emergent systems of innovation in Africa. These factors determine the development path of the region. We advance the notion of dynamic and non-dynamic systems of innovation, the latter describing the African condition. We combine the strands of literature on institutions and their persistence in shaping development with evolutionary theory and systems of innovation. Evidence is presented on the colonial origins of skewed schooling enrolment, at variance with the industrialization objective of modern economies. Employing simple statistical tests, the persistence of initial human capital (school enrolment) reflects in the significant correlation among the three levels of schooling enrolments, and correlation of enrolment in 1970 with per capita income in 2000, a periodicity of some three decades. This outcome is consistent with the literature on countries at early stages of development. Path-dependency is partially proved even though we did not attempt to investigate all variables making up the system of innovation. This is a first tentative attempt to explore long-run development in Africa within the systems of innovation framework. Resume: Dans cet article, nous proposons que les institutions historiques et le schema constant de formation du capital humain soient utilises pour influer sur les systemes emergents d’innovation en Afrique. Ces facteurs determinent le chemin du developpement de la region. Nous avancons la notion de systemes d’innovation dynamiques et non dynamiques, ce dernier type decrivant la situation africaine. Nous avons combine la tendance des publications sur les institutions et leur persistance a concevoir le developpement selon la theorie evolutive et les systemes d’innovation. Des preuves sont fournies sur l’origine coloniale de l’asymetrie de la scolarisation, ce qui est en porte-a-faux avec l’objectif d’industrialisation des economies modernes. Sur la base de tests statistiques simples, on constate que la persistance du type de capital humain initial (scolarisation) se reflete dans l’etroite correlation entre les trois niveaux d’enseignement, et dans la correlation entre la scolarisation en 1970 et le revenu par habitant de 2000, soit une periodicite de trois decennies. Ce constat est en phase avec les publications sur les pays dans les premieres phases du developpement. La dependance par rapportau chemin deja trace est partiellement prouvee, meme si notre objectif n’etait pas d’analyser toutes les variables qui forment le systeme d’innovation. Il s’agit d’un tout premier essai visant a explorer le developpement a long terme de l’Afrique dans le cadre des systemes d’innovation.

Financial Resource Base of Sub‐national Governments and Fiscal Decentralization in Ghana

Abstract: The past two decades have witnessed numerous attempts in developing countries at institutionalizing decentralization. Political leaders tended, before then, to believe that centralized planning was the key to economic growth and development. Ghana has not been excluded from this wave towards the transfer of power, competences, resources and functions from the centre to local levels of government. While Ghana has achieved significant political and administrative decentralization as well as decentralized planning, fiscal decentralization has been the unyielding component of the process. This paper examines the desirability, or otherwise, of fiscal decentralization in the context of funding arrangements. It uses the funding regime model as a basis for analysing how regulatory provisions, political and economic factors and practices, determine financial capacity of sub-national governments. Evidence in the paper leads to the conclusion that sub-national governments in Ghana do not support fiscal autonomy. They, instead, prefer being served and financed by the central government. Resume: Ces deux dernieres decennies, les pays en developpement ont mene plusieurs initiatives pour institutionnaliser la decentralisation. Auparavant, les hommes politiques avaient tendance a croire que la planification centralisee etait la cle de la croissance economique et du developpement. Le Ghana n’a pas ete en reste par rapport a cette vague de transfert de pouvoirs, competences, ressources et de fonctions du gouvernement central vers les collectivites territoriales. Bien que ce pays ait pu realiser une decentralisation significative dans les domaines politique, administratif et de la planification, il n’a pas encore reussi sa decentralisation budgetaire. Cet article analyse l’opportunite ou non de la decentralisation budgetaire dans le cadre d’un mecanisme de financement. L’article utilise le modele du regime de financement comme base d’analyse de la facon dont les dispositions reglementaires, ainsi que les facteurs et pratiques politiques et economiques, determinent la capacite financiere des collectivites territoriales. Il ressort de l’article que les collectivites territoriales du Ghana n’ont pas la capacite de gerer une autonomie financiere. Elles preferent, au contraire, etre servies et financees par le gouvernement central.

African Poverty Reduction Strategy Programmes and the Fisheries Sector: Current Situation and Opportunities

Abstract: The formulation of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) is one of the main conditions for concessional lending by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to developing countries. Nevertheless, while evidence indicates that the fisheries sector can contribute (often markedly at the local level) to improved livelihoods and the achievement of food security in Africa, the sector is often neglected in PRSPs. This article focuses on the 29 African states that have currently produced a PRSP, highlighting those nations for whom the fisheries sector has been a significant motor of economic growth or likely poverty refuge. It then analyses the extent to which the fisheries sector is incorporated into national PRSPs. Results of a mapping exercise demonstrate that while the sector is significant (in either growth or poverty terms) in 12 states, the sector was effectively mainstreamed in only three national PRSPs (Ghana, Guinea and Senegal).

Wage Returns to Schooling in Nigeria

Abstract: In the last two decades, primary and secondary school enrollment rates have declined in Nigeria while enrollment rates in post-secondary school have increased. This paper estimates from the General Household Survey for Nigeria the private returns to schooling associated with levels of educational attainment for wage and self-employed workers. The estimates for both men and women are small at primary and secondary levels, 2–4 percent, but are substantial at post-secondary education level, 10–15 percent. These schooling return estimates may account for the recent trends in enrollments. Thus, increasing public investment to encourage increased attendance in basic education is not justifiable on grounds of private efficiency, unless investments to increase school quality have higher private returns. With high private returns to post-secondary schooling, students at this level should pay tuition, to recoup more of the public costs of schooling, which may be redistributed to poor families through scholarships.

NEPAD: The Need and Obstacles

Abstract: Africa performs poorly in the global economy. The continent lacks investments, jobs, real output, and basic social services. Aggravating the poor performance is poor management. This paper argues that the establishment of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) to grapple with Africa's economic problems makes sense but only if necessary policies are properly implemented. It argues that Africa should pursue interest politics through NEPAD as an economic integration. On the issue of financing the budget, which has in the past been a major constraint to OAU-initiated projects, this paper strongly recommends that it should be made mandatory that all multinational companies operating in all NEPAD member countries pay a certain percentage of their earnings into the NEPAD budget. Resume: La performance de l’Afrique dans l’economie mondiale est mediocre. Le continent manque d’investissements, d’emplois, de production reelle et de services sociaux de base. La mauvaise gestion vient aggraver cette performance mediocre. L’article estime que la creation du NEPAD pour s’attaquer aux problemes economiques de l’Afrique sera une bonne initiative, si et seulement si les politiques necessaires sont mises en œuvre de maniere satisfaisante. Il avance que l’Afrique devrait poursuivre une politique d’interet dans le cadre du NEPAD en tant qu’outil d’integration economique. En ce qui concerne le financement du budget qui, par le passe, a constitue un des obstacles majeurs a la realisation des projets inities par l’OUA, l’article recommande vivement que l’on oblige toutes les societes multinationales operant dans les pays membres du NEPAD a verser un certain pourcentage de leurs benefices au budget du NEPAD.

Rural Land, Emerging Rental Land Markets and Public Policy in Ethiopia

Abstract: While farmers today access land mainly through administrative-based land distribution, transactions in rental markets are on the rise. Different rental contracts are informally arranged with varied land use and transfer rights and degree of enforcement. These contracts are often interlocked to overcome the problem of incomplete or missing non-land factor markets. The empirical evidence is thin but shows mixed records on performance of rental markets. Transactions in rental markets provide an additional venue to access land, reduce disparity in distribution of area of land operated, correct imbalances in factor proportions at farm level, and partly substitute for missing or incomplete factor markets. However, rights to rental land are restricted and poorly enforced, and markets are localized and thinly traded. While participation in rental markets is potentially welfare improving, increasing scarcity of land and demands for higher rent, a fee for right to rent land, payment in cash, farming skills and experience, and proof of no-default are tightening conditions to access to land, particularly to the young poor farmers. Public policy has an important role in formalizing and enhancing the development of rental markets through strengthening enforceable long-term security of tenure, providing legal cover to rental contracts, allowing tradability of long-term use rights through rental markets, and providing the institutional mechanism to enforce contracts and reduce the burden of self-enforcement. These policy measures need to be nested within a broad framework of market development, and informed by policy research and experimentation. Resume: Les transactions foncieres ne cessent d’augmenter, meme si le principal moyen d’acces des exploitants a la terre reste l’attribution de terres par les autorites administratives. Differents types de contrat de location sont conclus, de maniere informelle, avec plusieurs formes d’utilisation des sols, de cession des terres et un certain degre de force executoire. Ces contrats sont souvent ‘verrouilles’ pour eviter tout probleme liea l’insuffisance ou l’absence de marches des facteurs autres que la terre. Les preuves empiriques sont peu nombreuses, mais revelent des resultats mitiges pour la performance des marches locatifs. Les transactions sur ces marches constituent un autre moyen d’acces a la terre, reduisent les disparites dans la distribution des terres exploitees, corrigent les desequilibres de la repartition des facteurs au niveau de l’exploitation, et compensent en partie l’insuffisance ou l’absence de marches des facteurs. Cependant, les droits a la location de terres sont limites et leur mise en application est peu satisfaisante. De plus, les marches sont localises et enregistrent un faible volume de transactions. Bien que la participation aux activites du marche locatif soit susceptible d’ameliorer le bien-etre, la rarefaction croissante des terres et la hausse des tarifs du loyer, les frais afferents au droit de location de la terre, la demande de paiement en especes, les experiences et techniques agricoles, ainsi que la demande de preuve de non-defaillance sont autant d’obstacles qui rendent difficile l’acces a la terre, surtout pour les jeunes exploitants pauvres. La politique gouvernementale joue un role important dans l’officialisation et le developpement des marches locatifs, en veillant a l’application d’une garantie a long terme de l’occupation des terres, en donnant une couverture juridique aux contrats de location, en permettant la cession des droits d’occupation des terres a long terme dans le cadre de transactions sur les marches locatifs, et en mettant en place un mecanisme institutionnel de mise en application des contrats, permettant ainsi d’alleger le fardeau de la mise en application par les parties contractantes elles-memes. Ces mesures strategiques devraient s’inscrire dans un cadre plus large de developpement du marche et s’inspirer de la recherche sur les politiques et de leur experimentation.

Sovereign Credit Ratings and Private Capital Flows to Low‐income Countries

Abstract: As low-income countries obtain sovereign credit ratings in increasing numbers, this paper examines the potential effects on the composition and volume of private capital flows. Sovereign credit ratings are unlikely to overcome the informational asymmetries that impede private capital flows, and due to new international capital adequacy rules may actually raise the costs of capital for private borrowers. Nevertheless, they could help develop local and regional securities markets and assist mature private borrowers in hitherto unrated countries. Also, there may be beneficial disciplining effects on policy makers, and a growing differentiation between countries subject to an Africa-wide risk premium. Resume: Dans la mesure ou un nombre croissant de pays a faible revenu obtiennent des cotes de credit souverain, l’article analyse les effets potentiels de la composition et du volume des flux de capitaux prives. Les cotes de credit souverain ne vont probablement pas surmonter les asymetries informationnelles qui entravent les flux de capitaux prives et, en raison des nouvelles regles internationales en matiere d’adequation du capital, pourraient en realite augmenter les couts du capital pour les emprunteurs prives. Cependant, les cotes de credit souverain pourraient contribuer a developper les marches regionaux des valeurs mobilieres et aider les emprunteurs prives bien solides de pays n’ayant pas, a ce jour, une cote de credit. De meme, sur le plan de la discipline, elles peuvent avoir des effets benefiques sur les decideurs et favoriser une differenciation croissante entre des pays soumis a une prime de risque appliquee a l’Afrique dans son ensemble.

The Discount Rate for Public Sector Conservation Projects in South Africa

Abstract: South Africa, in an attempt to reduce unemployment and alleviate poverty, has implemented a number of public sector conservation projects: the largest one being the Working for Water Programme (WfWP). Sound economic decision-making regarding the economic feasibility of these public sector conservation projects require that they be subjected to economic assessment in the form of cost-benefit analysis. One aspect of cost-benefit analysis, which is often neglected, is the choice of the social discount rate. This paper addresses the issue of what the social discount rate for public sector conservation projects should be and provides an example of how to derive a social discount rate for a public sector conservation project, namely the WfWP.

Does Schooling Promote Economic Growth

Abstract: This paper revisits the debate on schooling and economic growth with particular reference to the case of sub-Saharan Africa. Following the endogenous growth model developed by Lucas (1988) that considers human capital as one factor of production and schooling as a means of human capital accumulation, two results of schooling are explicitly stated: accumulation of privately owned and publicly owned human capital. By developing a growth estimating equation containing these two types of schooling results from the model and confronting it with empirical data, the hypothesis that schooling has got growth effect is tested. The analytic result suggests that in the indicated economies, for the period covered by the study (1966–2000), schooling that leads to accumulation of publicly owned human capital is associated with per capita income growth. Likewise, the analysis provides supporting evidence for the argument that primary schooling level is more associated with growth than other levels of schooling. Resume: L’article reexamine le debat sur la scolarisation et la croissance economique, en se referant tout particulierement au cas de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Suivant le modele de croissance endogene elabore par Lucas (1988) qui considere le capital humain comme facteur de production et la scolarisation comme moyen d’accumulation du capital humain, deux resultats de la scolarisation sont explicitement etablis: accumulation du capital humain public et accumulation du capital humain prive. En elaborant une equation d’evaluation de la croissance contenant ces deux types de resultat de la scolarisation emanant du modele, et en la confrontant avec des donnees empiriques, on peut verifier l’hypothese selon laquelle la scolarisation a un effet sur la croissance. Le resultat analytique laisse penser que, dans les economies concernees, et pour toute la periode couverte par l’etude (1966–2000), la scolarisation menant a l’accumulation du capital humain public est liee a la croissance du revenu par habitant. De meme, l’analyse fournit des preuves appuyant l’argument selon lequel la scolarisation au niveau du primaire est plus liee a la croissance que la scolarisation aux autres niveaux.

The Determinants of Cereal Grain Imports: Sub-Saharan Africa, 1970–1997

Abstract: During the 1970s cereal imports in sub-Saharan Africa increased at an annual rate in excess of 20 percent. As a result, it was assumed Africa had two choices: reduce the rate of population growth or become increasingly dependent on food imports and aid. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of food shortfalls versus policy choices that resulted in a taste change away from roots and tubers and coarse grains to imported wheat and rice. Of the 41 countries studied, 17 are still net exporters of food commodities, cereal imports serve to supplement inadequate production of food, but these imports, generally, are not driven by severe nutritional needs within any one country. Rather, the observed cereal imports are primarily wheat and rice flowing into the countries with adequate levels of nutrition available.

Velocity Effects of Increased Variability in Monetary Growth in Egypt: A Test of Friedman's Velocity Hypothesis

Abstract: This paper tests Friedman's hypothesis that increased variability in the growth of money supply causes velocity to decline, using Egyptian data from the period 1960–99. The monetary aggregates M1 and M2 are decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components and the variability of money growth is computed as the standard deviation of five years of monetary growth rates. Cointegration tests show that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship between the variability in money growth and velocity, for both M1 and M2. However, while increased variability in the growth of M2 is found to be associated with lower velocity — supporting Friedman's velocity hypothesis — increased variability in the growth of M1 seems to have no influence on velocity, possibly because the definition of M1 has changed over time. The findings also suggest that anticipated movements in M2 volatility are not neutral, in the sense that they do affect velocity. An important implication is that the scope for discretionary monetary policy in Egypt is somewhat circumscribed in the short run. However, if the Central Bank of Egypt were to make its decisions more transparent and pre-announce its policies, then velocity would be more predictable and monetary policy more potent. Resume: Sur la base de donnees relatives a l’Egypte pour la periode 1960–1990, cet article teste l’hypothese de velocite de Friedman, selon laquelle la variabilite accrue de la croissance de la masse monetaire ralentit la velocite. Les agregats monetaires M1 et M2 sont repartis en composantes prevues et imprevues et la variabilite de la croissance monetaire est calculee en tant qu’ecart type des taux de croissance monetaire sur une periode de cinq ans. Les tests de co-integration revelent l’existence d’une relation importante a long terme, du point de vue statistique, entre la variabilite de la croissance monetaire et la velocite, tant pour les agregats M1 que pour les agregats M2. Cependant, meme si l’on constate que la variabilite accrue de la croissance de M2 est associee a une faible velocite— ce qui corrobore l’hypothese de velocite de Friedman — la variabilite accrue de la croissance de M1 semble n’avoir aucune influence sur la velocite, peut-etre parce que la definition de M1 a change au fil des ans. Il ressort egalement des resultats que les mouvements prevus de la volatilite de M2 ne sont pas sans effet, en ce sens qu’ils influent sur la velocite. Une des incidences importantes est que la portee de la politique monetaire discretionnaire de l’Egypte est quelque peu circonscrite a court terme. Toutefois, si la Banque centrale de l’Egypte prenait des decisions plus transparentes et annoncait a l’avance ses politiques, la velocite serait alors plus previsible et la politique monetaire plus efficace.

A Review of Institutional Alternatives to Collateralized Lending

Abstract: Rural producers’ access to formal finance has often been limited by their inability to provide collaterals, particularly in the form of registered or certified land titles and tenancy contracts or assets which are auctionable as well as by laws that make foreclosure difficult. This paper reviews some of the alternative institutional arrangements (possibilities) for reducing and overcoming collateral requirements such as third party guarantees, ownership of tradeable assets, credit guarantee schemes, group lending, credit-savings linkages, incremental and loan repayment-dependent lending, portfolio diversification and an efficient legal system for contract enforcement. It also specifies the land policy and tenure reforms that are desirable, especially in the direction of formal land titling or legally specified rights to the use and ownership of lands, the consolidation of land holdings and the provision of proper cadastres for land and assuring that titles are secure.

Agricultural exports : important issues for Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract: The central argument of this paper is that African countries stand to benefit more from the goodwill currently being shown by industrialized countries who have committed themselves to further opening up of their markets for commodities from the region. However, more needs to be done by African governments and the international community if these benefits are to trickle down to the African farmers and result in attaining the goal of poverty reduction. This paper identifies the issues that need to be addressed by all parties involved. At the macro level, our results find that the distortion in the macro environment is a major factor hindering African exports. At the micro level, our results show that for farmers to benefit from the opening up of the international market, they would need more access to market information, easier road access to the markets for both their output and inputs, improve their farming techniques by utilizing modern scientific farming methods and inputs, and to increase their productivity. At the international level, our study finds strong results indicating that foreign tariff rate, price support (PNAC) and standards act as a market barrier to African agricultural exports. Resume: L’argument principal de cet article est que les pays africains entendent tirer davantage parti de la bonne volonte actuellement affichee par les pays industrialises, qui se sont engages a ouvrir davantage leurs marches aux produits originaires de l’Afrique. Cependant, beaucoup reste a faire de la part des pays africains et de la communaute internationale, si l’on veut que ces avantages parviennent aux exploitants agricoles africains et contribuent a la realisation de l’objectif de reduction de la pauvrete. L’article identifie les questions que toutes les parties prenantes sont appelees a resoudre. A l’echelon macroeconomique, il ressort de nos resultats que la distorsion de l’environnement macroeconomique constitue une des entraves aux exportations africaines. A l’echelon microeconomique, nos resultats montrent que, pour tirer parti de l’ouverture du marche international, les exploitants agricoles doivent avoir un meilleur acces aux informations sur les marches, ainsi que des routes d’acces plus facile aux marches pour les intrants et la production, ameliorer leurs techniques culturales grâce a des methodes et intrants scientifiques modernes, et accroitre leur productivite. A l’echelon international, il ressort de notre analyse que les tarifs etrangers, le soutien des prix (PNAC) et les normes a respecter entravent les exportations agricoles de l’Afrique.

Licensing Laws and Implications for Private Investment: The Case of Tanzania

Abstract: This paper investigates the licensing provisions in the Electricity Ordinance of Tanganyika that are believed to influence private sector investment. There were three main strands to the analytical methodology — textual analysis, actual practice and perceptions of key stakeholders. The findings suggest that there is sufficient evidence to support the belief that the existing licensing laws in Tanzania do not provide the necessary features for attracting private investment, namely clarity, efficiency and transparency. More specifically the Electricity Ordinance of 1931 is so much outdated that it is not fit for amendment; instead it should be considered for revocation and a new law be enacted. The new law should: (a) provide for a clear licensing procedure in the sense that it should specify what activities need licence; who can apply for licence; where one can apply for licence; what documents to fill; (b) provide for efficiency-enforcing provisions such as stipulating the time frame for the regulator to finish processing an application; (c) provide for a transparent licensing procedure in the sense that it should prescribe a large amount of openness — publishing of applications and that minutes be on open display as required in Uganda and Zimbabwe. The proposed multi-sector regulator for utilities is a step in the right direction for it reduces the chances for regulatory capture, thus reinforcing transparency in the dealings of the regulator. Resume: L’article analyse les dispositions regissant l’octroi de licences dans l’Ordonnance sur l’electricite du Tanganyika qui, comme on le pense, influent sur l’investissement du secteur prive. La methodologie d’analyse repose sur trois axes principaux: analyse textuelle, pratique effective, et perceptions des parties prenantes importantes. Les resultats laissent penser qu’il existe suffisamment de preuves etayant le fait que la legislation actuelle de la Tanzanie en matiere d’octroi de licences n’offre pas les conditions necessaires pour attirer l’investissement prive, a savoir la clarte, l’efficience et la transparence. Plus precisement, l’Ordonnance sur l’electricite de 1931 est tellement depassee qu’on ne peut pas se contenter de l’amender. Au contraire, il faudrait envisager son abrogation et son remplacement par une nouvelle loi. La nouvelle loi devrait: a) definir une procedure claire d’octroi de licences en ce sens qu’elle devrait definir quelles activites requierent une licence; qui peut introduire une demande de licence; ou l’on peut demander une licence; quels documents remplir a cet effet; b) comporter des dispositions visant le renforcement de l’efficience, en etablissant notamment le delai de traitement d’une demande par l’organe de reglementation; c) definir une procedure transparente d’octroi de licences en ce sens qu’elle devrait prescrire une large ouverture: publication des demandes; proces-verbaux librement accessibles comme c’est le cas en Ouganda et au Zimbabwe. L’organe de reglementation multisectoriel propose pour les services collectifs est un pas dans la bonne direction, car il reduit les risques d’accaparement par l’autorite, renforcant ainsi la transparence dans les activites dudit organe.

African Social Sciences and Development in the New Century: Challenges and Prospects

Abstract: This paper examines the travails of the social sciences in Africa since the post-colonial era. It pinpoints the fact that the ability of the social sciences to be really meaningful to the delusive development quest by Africa has been undermined by a combination of structural and epistemological problems. These problems range from the dismal economic environment in the continent, the structural limitations imposed on research, poor conditions of service to laziness and epistemological inferiority among African social scientists. However, the paper posits that the current wind of change blowing across Africa, a re-examination of the epistemology of the field and a conscientious self-reappraisal will ultimately reposition the social sciences to play significant roles in the development of Africa. Resume: L’article analyse les travaux en sciences sociales realises en Afrique depuis l’ere post-coloniale. Il identifie le fait que la capacite des sciences sociales a jouer un role reellement significatif dans la quete illusoire de developpement en Afrique a ete minee par l’effet conjugue de problemes structurels et epistemologiques. Ces problemes sont notamment l’environnement economique peu encourageant du continent, les restrictions structurelles pesant sur la recherche, la mediocrite des conditions de service, la paresse et l’inferiorite du niveau epistemologique des specialistes des sciences sociales en Afrique. Cependant, l’article indique que le vent du changement qui souffle actuellement en Afrique, un reexamen de l’epistemologie et une auto-reevaluation consciencieuse repositionneront, a terme, les sciences sociales et leur permettront de jouer des roles importants dans le developpement de l’Afrique.

Production Alimentaire et Environnement au Togo: Une Analyse Econometrique

Abstract: Resume: Au Togo, la production alimentaire est en baisse continue et l’etat de l’environnement est marque entre autres par la degradation des ressources naturelles. La presente etude vise aevaluer la contribution des facteurs environnementaux a la croissance alimentaire. L’hypothese fondamentale est que la croissance alimentaire au Togo est moins liee aux aleas climatiques qu’aux investissements en capital physique et humain. L’etude aboutit a la conclusion que la variable environnementale n’est pas determinante dans l’explication de la variation de la production alimentaire ce qui confirme notre hypothese initiale. En consequence, les politiques de production alimentaire futures au Togo ne doivent pas privilegier les variables du capital physique au detriement de la variable environnementale. Il convient donc de rechercher a l’avenir la combinaison optimale des facteurs du capital physique et du capital humain et de l’environnement qui garantisse de maniere durable la production alimentaire dans le cadre de la formulation de la politique de securite alimentaire au Togo. Abstract: In Togo, agricultural production continues to fall at the same time as the state of the natural environment continues to suffer from physical degradation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the contribution of environmental considerations vis-a-vis other factors to growth in agricultural food production. The hypothesis to be tested is centred on the question of whether growth in food production is less associated with climatic conditions than with physical and human investments. The conclusion reached is that environmental factors are not a determinant in explaining the variation in food production. As a consequence, food policies in Togo should not emphasize investments in human and physical capital to the detriment of ecological factors. It is therefore essential that future food policies seek an optimal mix between such elements as physical investments, human capital development and environmental sustainability in ensuring food security in Togo.

Volatilité du prix international et distribution spatiale du prix du cacao en Côte d’Ivoire

Abstract: Instability in primary commodity prices is often assessed with descriptive statistics and estimation methods under the assumption of nearly normal distribution. However, asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of the cycles as well as in the intensity of the impact of shocks on commodity price volatility have been noticed. This bears implications for the analysis of producer support strategies. After reviewing some explanations of these irregularities, particularly those concerning the price and the main producer country of cocoa, properties of alternative GARCH models are compared, and a new specification is proposed. Five GARCH specifications are then applied to high frequency data of the cocoa price, relative to a 15-year period. A moderate level of persistence is observed in the conditional mean of weekly observations. As for the conditional variance, specification tests and forecasting capacity measures give preference to models with a Student-t distribution, with daily data being also characterized by rightward-skewness and relatively higher, even if time-varying, volatility persistence. Finally, estimates of two of these models are used to analyse space-time relationships among price disparity across different trading centres, inter-regional producer price dispersion in Cote d’Ivoire, and unforeseen volatility.

The currency ratio in Tanzania: an econometric analysis

Abstract: This study tested some key hypotheses on the determinants of the currency ratio in Tanzania. The econometric results suggest that real income is, as theorized, negatively related to and a significant determinant of the currency ratio in Tanzania. The estimated income elasticity coefficient, found to be far less than unity, suggests there is poor substitution between currency and demand deposits in Tanzania. The results also showed that expected inflation was negatively related to the currency ratio in Tanzania. While the structural adjustment programme was found to increase and shift upward the currency ratio function in Tanzania, the liberalization of the financial sector was found to shift decrease and shift downward the currency ratio function. Most institutional variables were found to lack the expected sign and significance in explaining the currency ratio in Tanzania, probably because of inadequacy of the proxies used.