Showing papers in "Amber Waves in 2009"

Food Insecurity Up in Recessionary Times

Abstract: U.S. food insecurity was at a record-high level in 2008; following the less severe 2001 recession, food insecurity continued to worsen through 2004.

Grain prices impact entire livestock production cycle.

Abstract: Between 2006 and 2008, feed costs nearly doubled and are expected to result in lower meat and dairy production in 2009. Feed prices have declined since mid-2008 and are expected to be lower in 2009, but the biological timeline of livestock production means meat producers are limited in what they can do in the short run to change production. Changes in U.S. livestock-industry structure and the use of alternative feeds, such as byproducts from ethanol production, will help reduce the impact of higher input costs on livestock producers.

Growing Crops for Biofuels has Spillover Effects

Abstract: Volatile petroleum prices, along with Federal policies aimed at reducing U.S. dependency on oil imports and mitigating climate change, have sparked rapid growth in biofuel demand. In response, production of agricultural commodities that serve as feedstock for biofuels has increased. Federal policy initiatives and private-sector investment point to continued growth in biofuel production and, consequently, increased demand for agricultural products. The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 includes provisions for a Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to increase the supply of alternative fuel sources by requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022. The RFS provision establishes a level of 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol by 2015 and at least 21 billion gallons of cellulosic (noncornstarch) ethanol and advanced biofuels (including ethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel) by 2022. The share of total domestic corn production supplying the ethanol market grew from 7.5 percent in 2001 to 22.6 percent in Federal mandates for biofuel production promote expanded crop acreage and shifts in cropping patterns and livestock production due to higher prices for corn and other grain crops.

Recent Volatility in U.S. Fertilizer Prices: Causes and Consequences

Abstract: tilizer prices to record highs, followed by lower prices in late 2008. The significant ups and downs of the market in 2008 can serve as a textbook example of supply-and-demand analysis in price determination. Though U.S. nominal prices of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers, among others, began trending upward as early as 2002, they increased sharply and reached historic highs in mid2008. During the 12 months ending in April 2008, nitrogen prices increased 32 percent, phosphate prices 93 percent, and potash prices 100 percent. This price surge in 2008 was due to strong domestic and global demand for fertilizers, low fertilizer inventories, and the inability of the U.S. fertilizer industry to adjust production levels (see charts on page 43). But by late 2008, monthly average prices had fallen. Global fertilizer demand softened in response to the record-high fertilizer prices and declining crop prices. Some U.S. farmers postponed fertilizer application, tighter credit availability slowed fertilizer purchases, and fertilizer supplies from overseas increased, all contributing to the price decline.

Taking the pulse of rural health care.

Abstract: ■ Rural households have higher rates of mortality, disability, and chronic disease than urban households, even after taking into account the different age distributions of the two populations.■ Rural households have less access than urban households to affordable, nearby, high-quality health care.■ Adoption of new health information technologies, promoted by a $19 billion allocation in the 2009 economic stimulus package, holds promise for improving coordination among geographically dispersed health care providers.

Baby boom migration tilts toward rural America.

Abstract: As Americans age, their likelihood of migrating, their reasons for moving, and their destination choices shift dramatically. Baby boomers—born between 1946 and 1964—are entering a stage when moves to rural locales increase, especially to areas with scenic amenities and lower housing costs. “Boomers” have already demonstrated an affi nity for moving to rural and small-town destinations, compared with older or younger cohorts. They led a short-lived rural “rebound” in the early 1990s despite being at an age when career-oriented motivations strongly infl uence migration decisions. Today’s 83 million boomers, ranging from age 45 to 63, represent a fourth of the total U.S. population. There has never been such a large share of the workforce approaching retirement. By comparison, 42 million were age 45 to 63 in 1990. Boomers are now poised to signifi cantly increase rural and small-town elderly populations by 2020, with major social and economic implications for their chosen destinations. The size and direction of migration patterns vary ■ considerably by age, and baby boomers are increasingly migrating to rural destinations.

Global economic crisis threatens food security in lower income countries.

Abstract: Economic downturn reduces import capacity and heightens food insecurity in developing countries.

Agriculture and Water Quality Trading: Exploring the Possibilities

Abstract: Water quality trading is a market-based alternative to command and control policies for meeting water quality goals. A trading program creates a market for pollution discharge reductions for the purpose of achieving a water quality goal at a lower cost than traditional command-and-control policies. The US Environmental Protection Agency and the USDA are promoting water quality trading in watersheds impaired by both point source and agricultural pollution. This research examines the extent to which water quality impairments have the potential for creating a demand for credits from agriculture. We found that the opportunities for the development of active markets between point sources and agriculture are limited, due primarily to lack of available demand from point sources. Out of 710 eight-digit HUCs containing waters impaired by nutrients, we identified 142 and 224 where active markets for nitrogen and phosphorus credits, respectively, between regulated point sources and agriculture have the best opportunity to develop, assuming supply and demand impediments can be addressed through program design and government support. We use program data to account for current conservation measures on farms that could drive up the price of credits and reduce demand.

Removal of government controls opens peanut and tobacco sectors to market forces.

Abstract: Though U.S. peanut and tobacco acreage contracted with removal of quotas, efficiency gains have sparked export growth.

Income volatility is rising, with mixed effects on nutrition assistance participation.

Abstract: With growing income volatility, targeting benefits and defining eligibility periods have become more difficult.

Debt Landscape for U.S. Farms Has Shifted

Abstract: Fewer farm operators rely on borrowed funds, but farm debt is increasingly concentrated in larger farms.

Full Throttle U.S. Ethanol Expansion Faces Challenges Down the Road

Abstract: Constraints to future growth of the ethanol industry will present challenges to meeting the ambitious mandates for expanded biofuel use set forth in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. New production technologies and supporting infrastructures will be needed to reach cellulosic biofuel mandates. Most U.S. motor vehicles are restricted by manufacturers’ warranties to use gasoline containing no more than 10 percent ethanol, which will limit growth in biofuel demand.

Science, Technology, and Prospects for Growth in U.S. Corn Yields

Abstract: Investment in scientific research is key for boosting corn yields, making productivity, environmental, and bioenergy goals easier to attain.

Food Insecurity Less Prevalent in Canada Than in the United States

Abstract: Canadian households are less likely to face diffi culty putting adequate food on the table than those in the United States, and this disparity does not appear to result from differences in income. Food security—defi ned as access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life—is important for health and good nutrition. Nationally representative Canadian and U.S. surveys, using the same set of questions to assess food security, indicate that 7.0 percent of Canadians lived in food-insecure households in 2004, compared with an average of 12.6 percent of U.S. residents in 2003-05. To a great extent, the same demographic and economic characteristics were associated with food insecurity in both countries. Younger adults, single parents, unemployed adults looking for work, adults out of the labor force because of disability, and people in households where no adult had completed a 2or 4-year college degree were more likely to live in food-insecure households. Food insecurity was also strongly associated with low income in both countries. Canada has, on balance, smaller proportions of these vulnerable subpopulations than the United States. In particular, Canada has a higher proportion of college graduates and a lower proportion of children living with a single parent. However, differences in demographics, employment, and income could account for only 20-30 percent of the overall Canada-U.S. difference in food insecurity. Differences in income and income distribution did not contribute to the lower rate of food insecurity in Canada. A smaller percentage of Canadians than Americans lived in foodinsecure households in every income range except the lowest—below about 50 percent of the U.S. poverty line. (Income was adjusted for differences in purchasing power in the two countries.) The Canada-U.S. difference in food insecurity primarily refl ected lower rates of food insecurity in Canadian households than in U.S. households with similar incomes, employment, household living arrangements, age of members, and education. Holding other factors constant, food insecurity was less prevalent in Canada than in the United States for households with incomes just above the U.S. poverty line, those with no high school graduate, those with children present, and those with adults age 25 and older. Partially offsetting these factors were lower rates of food insecurity in the U.S. for households with incomes below the U.S poverty line and for men living alone and women living alone. These patterns suggest that differences in tax and tax-credit policies and the provision of in-kind benefi ts (such as food and nutrition assistance, health care, housing assistance, and energy assistance) may account for a substantial share of the difference in food security between Canada and the United States. Evidence from the ERS study is not defi nitive, however, and further research is needed to explore the reasons behind the differences.

Cellulosic Ethanol From Crop Residue Is No Free Lunch

Abstract: Crop residues from agricultural field crops represent a potential source of vegetative (cellulosic) matter to be used in ethanol production. Crop residues may be particularly attractive if technologies for producing cellulosic ethanol become viable before dedicated crops, such as switchgrass, are commercially available. However, crop residues are not “free goods”—they provide soil nutrients and organic matter and help control erosion and retain moisture on cropland. Thus, the costs of shifting from production of corn-based ethanol to production of cellulosic ethanol from crop residues may offset the benefits. The Federal renewable fuel standards (RFS) call for annual U.S. production of 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol and 3 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2015 (see “Full Throttle U.S. Ethanol Expansion Faces Challenges Down the Road,” September 2009 Amber Waves). ERS estimated the landuse and resource effects if the U.S. produced 12 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol and 6 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol from crop residue rather than the RFS target amounts. This scenario is not a projection, but serves to illustrate the tradeoffs between corn ethanol and cellulosic ethanol that may be faced as economically viable cellulosic technologies emerge. Under this scenario, total U.S. crop acreage would decline as cellulosic ethanol production displaces corn-based ethanol production. However, the aggregate environmental benefits of the shift may be smaller than expected because additional fertilizer would be applied to cropland to replace the nutrients removed with the harvested residue. The environmental effects of changes in planted acreage and crop mix would vary by region. With cellulosic production displacing 3 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol, nitrogen runoff to surface water would be reduced, while nitrogen leaching to groundwater would increase. Total nitrogen use would decrease in most regions, although a large increase would be expected in the Corn Belt due to the additional fertilizer needed to offset residue harvest and the small reduction in corn acres planted relative to that of the rest of the country. The study’s findings suggest, however, that crop residue harvest accompanied by changes in rotation and tillage management regimes could contribute to a net reduction in soil erosion. If cellulosic production displaces corn ethanol, acres planted to continuous corn would likely decline, particularly in the Corn Belt, while the use of no-till systems would expand. Wider adoption of no-till would be driven by the economic value of crop residues, as more can be harvested from no-till systems, which also reduce soil erosion.