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Showing papers in "AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment in 2011"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The central question is whether social and technical innovations can reverse the trends that are challenging critical thresholds and creating tipping points in the earth system, and if not, what conditions are necessary to escape the current lock-in.
Abstract: This article explores the links between agency, institutions, and innovation in navigating shifts and large-scale transformations toward global sustainability. Our central question is whether social and technical innovations can reverse the trends that are challenging critical thresholds and creating tipping points in the earth system, and if not, what conditions are necessary to escape the current lock-in. Large-scale transformations in information technology, nano- and biotechnology, and new energy systems have the potential to significantly improve our lives; but if, in framing them, our globalized society fails to consider the capacity of the biosphere, there is a risk that unsustainable development pathways may be reinforced. Current institutional arrangements, including the lack of incentives for the private sector to innovate for sustainability, and the lags inherent in the path dependent nature of innovation, contribute to lock-in, as does our incapacity to easily grasp the interactions implicit in complex problems, referred to here as the ingenuity gap. Nonetheless, promising social and technical innovations with potential to change unsustainable trajectories need to be nurtured and connected to broad institutional resources and responses. In parallel, institutional entrepreneurs can work to reduce the resilience of dominant institutional systems and position viable shadow alternatives and niche regimes.

767 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability.
Abstract: Humanity has emerged as a major force in the operation of the biosphere, with a significant imprint on the Earth System, challenging social–ecological resilience. This new situation calls for a fundamental shift in perspectives, world views, and institutions. Human development and progress must be reconnected to the capacity of the biosphere and essential ecosystem services to be sustained. Governance challenges include a highly interconnected and faster world, cascading social–ecological interactions and planetary boundaries that create vulnerabilities but also opportunities for social–ecological change and transformation. Tipping points and thresholds highlight the importance of understanding and managing resilience. New modes of flexible governance are emerging. A central challenge is to reconnect these efforts to the changing preconditions for societal development as active stewards of the Earth System. We suggest that the Millennium Development Goals need to be reframed in such a planetary stewardship context combined with a call for a new social contract on global sustainability. The ongoing mind shift in human relations with Earth and its boundaries provides exciting opportunities for societal development in collaboration with the biosphere—a global sustainability agenda for humanity.

515 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is proposed to synthesize the breadth of the articles in this special issue by suggesting some changes to the risk governance framework proposed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) and adding some insights to its analytical and normative implications.
Abstract: The term governance describes the multitude of actors and processes that lead to collectively binding decisions. The term risk governance translates the core principles of governance to the context of risk-related policy making. We aim to delineate some basic lessons from the insights of the other articles in this special issue for our understanding of risk governance. Risk governance provides a conceptual as well as normative basis for how to cope with uncertain, complex and/or ambiguous risks. We propose to synthesize the breadth of the articles in this special issue by suggesting some changes to the risk governance framework proposed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) and adding some insights to its analytical and normative implications.

407 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Habitat loss has been, and still is, the greatest threat to biodiversity; the conversion of natural habitats to agricultural land, pastures, plantations, built areas and infrastructure continues, propelled by increasing human population size and by accelerating demand for resources.
Abstract: Habitat loss has been, and still is, the greatest threat to biodiversity (Brooks et al. 2002; Hanski 2005; Groom et al. 2006). According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005), more than half of several biomes, including the Mediterranean and temperate forests and tropical and sub-tropical dry broadleaf forests, had been converted by 1990; in Western Europe, only 2–3% of original forests remain in natural or natural-like condition (WWF Report 2001). Zooming into more detailed classifications of habitat does not change the picture. As an example, a recent in-depth assessment of changes in the quality and quantity of 368 habitat types in Finland (Raunio et al. 2008) classified the vast majority either as threatened (189 habitat types) or near threatened (105), while only 74 habitat types were considered to be of least concern. The conversion of natural habitats to agricultural land, pastures, plantations, built areas and infrastructure continues, propelled by increasing human population size and by accelerating demand for resources. It is self-evident that populations and species will suffer when their habitat becomes degraded or is lost completely. Nonetheless, many issues concerning the response of biodiversity to habitat loss and fragmentation are less clear-cut or they are not widely appreciated. These issues include non-linearity in the ecological response of species to habitat loss and fragmentation at the landscape level, about which I have more to say in this article. The response of species to habitat loss and other environmental changes is typically not instantaneous, particularly not when we consider changes at large spatial scales. Habitat loss leaves large numbers of species to gradually decline and go extinct. If we are not aware of this “extinction debt” (Tilman et al. 1994) we are prone to underestimate the level of threat to biodiversity (Hanski and Ovaskainen 2002). Habitat loss often involves deteriorating habitat quality, either due to intentional changes in land use, such as the conversion of natural boreal forests to intensively managed forests in northern Europe, or due to unintentional damage, exemplified by increasing edge effects with decreasing area and increasing fragmentation of habitat. Hundreds of studies have examined the relative roles of habitat quality, habitat fragment area and connectivity (inverse of isolation) in influencing the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes (reviewed by Fahrig 1997, 2003; Prugh et al. 2008). Unfortunately, much of this work is of limited value as it does not adequately recognize that the relative roles of habitat quality, fragment area and connectivity depend greatly on landscape structure and heterogeneity, and hence there cannot be a universal answer to the question “which is more important” (Hanski 2005). Habitat loss and fragmentation have genetic and evolutionary consequences. I shall touch below the question about reduced viability of small and fragmented populations due to inbreeding and random fixation of deleterious mutations. Concerning the evolutionary dynamics, habitat loss and fragmentation are likely to alter many components of natural selection and hence lead to evolutionary change. A prime example is selection on dispersal: several costs and benefits of dispersal are affected by the spatial structure of populations and hence by the physical structure of the environment, which are modified by habitat loss and fragmentation. Whether the net effect is increased or decreased rate of dispersal has been much debated (Heino and Hanski 2001; Ronce and Olivieri 2004), and once again it is apparent that there is not a single answer (Hanski 2005). Furthermore, whatever the answer in a particular case, there is no basis to assume that the evolutionary change would necessarily increase the viability of populations and metapopulations. It is even possible that evolutionary changes increase the likelihood of population extinction (Gyllenberg et al. 2002), though luckily “evolutionary suicide” is more of academic interest than a cause for real concern, even if some convincing examples were reported. The year 2010, the United Nations’ International Year of Biodiversity, was supposed to be the turning point in the loss of biodiversity, but a comprehensive report (Butchart et al. 2010) shows that the 2010 target was not met, biodiversity continues to decline, and the indicators reflecting the various pressures on biodiversity continue to increase. At hindsight, the 2010 target was overambitious and vague, there was no clear idea of how to reach it and how to measure success. The new target year is 2020, and we are now wiser, we have metrics and more specific measures that facilitate reaching the goal. Major subsidiary targets relate to the questions how much habitat should be protected and where. In this article, I first discuss the consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation for the ecological viability of metapopulations at the landscape level with a focus on extinction thresholds (the critical minimum amount of habitat that is necessary for long-term persistence of metapopulations). I argue that apart from the amount of habitat, the degree of fragmentation at the landscape level makes a significant difference. The next section gives a brief synopsis of the genetic factors that threaten long-term viability of populations and metapopulations (inbreeding depression and fixation of deleterious mutations that lead to a permanent reduction of fitness). Based on these biological considerations, I put forward an option for habitat conservation that represents, in my opinion, a cost-effective and realistic approach. This approach could make an important contribution towards reaching the target for conservation agreed in the UN biodiversity summit in Nagoya in 2010 that aims to put an end to the decline of biodiversity by 2020.

348 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, in situ and satellite data shows evidence of different regional snow cover responses to the widespread warming and increasing winter precipitation that has characterized the Arctic climate for the past 40-50 years.
Abstract: Analysis of in situ and satellite data shows evidence of different regional snow cover responses to the widespread warming and increasing winter precipitation that has characterized the Arctic climate for the past 40–50 years. The largest and most rapid decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow cover duration (SCD) are observed over maritime regions of the Arctic with the highest precipitation amounts. There is also evidence of marked differences in the response of snow cover between the North American and Eurasian sectors of the Arctic, with the North American sector exhibiting decreases in snow cover and snow depth over the entire period of available in situ observations from around 1950, while widespread decreases in snow cover are not apparent over Eurasia until after around 1980. However, snow depths are increasing in many regions of Eurasia. Warming and more frequent winter thaws are contributing to changes in snow pack structure with important implications for land use and provision of ecosystem services. Projected changes in snow cover from Global Climate Models for the 2050 period indicate increases in maximum SWE of up to 15% over much of the Arctic, with the largest increases (15–30%) over the Siberian sector. In contrast, SCD is projected to decrease by about 10–20% over much of the Arctic, with the smallest decreases over Siberia (<10%) and the largest decreases over Alaska and northern Scandinavia (30–40%) by 2050. These projected changes will have far-reaching consequences for the climate system, human activities, hydrology, and ecology.

297 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Assessment of land cover change due to gold surface mining in Western Ghana showed that surface mining resulted in deforestation, a substantial loss of farmland within mining concessions, and widespread spill-over effects as relocated farmers expand farmland into forests, suggesting that the environmental and social costs of Ghana’s gold boom may be much higher than previously thought.
Abstract: Land use conflicts are becoming increasingly apparent from local to global scales. Surface gold mining is an extreme source of such a conflict, but mining impacts on local livelihoods often remain unclear. Our goal here was to assess land cover change due to gold surface mining in Western Ghana, one of the world’s leading gold mining regions, and to study how these changes affected land use systems. We used Landsat satellite images from 1986–2002 to map land cover change and field interviews with farmers to understand the livelihood implications of mining-related land cover change. Our results showed that surface mining resulted in deforestation (58%), a substantial loss of farmland (45%) within mining concessions, and widespread spill-over effects as relocated farmers expand farmland into forests. This points to rapidly eroding livelihood foundations, suggesting that the environmental and social costs of Ghana’s gold boom may be much higher than previously thought.

208 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An excellent opportunity exists for one or more of the bordering countries to initiate a bold and effective, long-term, international collaboration in environmental management for the Gulf.
Abstract: The Persian Gulf is a semi-enclosed marine system surrounded by eight countries, many of which are experiencing substantial development. It is also a major center for the oil industry. The increasing array of anthropogenic disturbances may have substantial negative impacts on marine ecosystems, but this has received little attention until recently. We review the available literature on the Gulf’s marine environment and detail our recent experience in the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) to evaluate the role of anthropogenic disturbance in this marine ecosystem. Extensive coastal development may now be the single most important anthropogenic stressor. We offer suggestions for how to build awareness of environmental risks of current practices, enhance regional capacity for coastal management, and build cooperative management of this important, shared marine system. An excellent opportunity exists for one or more of the bordering countries to initiate a bold and effective, long-term, international collaboration in environmental management for the Gulf.

201 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the effects of changing snow cover on the climate, hydrological and ecological systems of the Arctic and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g. reflectivity), water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation and trace gas fluxes.
Abstract: Snow cover plays a major role in the climate, hydrological and ecological systems of the Arctic and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g. reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g. insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. Feedbacks to the climate system have global consequences. The livelihoods and well-being of Arctic residents and many services for the wider population depend on snow conditions so changes have important consequences. Already, changing snow conditions, particularly reduced summer soil moisture, winter thaw events and rain-on-snow conditions have negatively affected commercial forestry, reindeer herding, some wild animal populations and vegetation. Reductions in snow cover are also adversely impacting indigenous peoples' access to traditional foods with negative impacts on human health and well-being. However, there are likely to be some benefits from a changing Arctic snow regime such as more even run-off from melting snow that favours hydropower operations.

180 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a variety of effects on hydrologic, ecological, and socio-economic systems in the Arctic are projected to be affected by changes to low flows, lake evaporation regimes and water levels, and river-ice breakup severity and timing.
Abstract: Climatic changes to freshwater ice in the Arctic are projected to produce a variety of effects on hydrologic, ecological, and socio-economic systems. Key hydrologic impacts include changes to low flows, lake evaporation regimes and water levels, and river-ice break-up severity and timing. The latter are of particular concern because of their effect on river geomorphology, vegetation, sediment and nutrient fluxes, and sustainment of riparian aquatic habitats. Changes in ice phenology will affect a wide range of related biological aspects of seasonality. Some changes are likely to be gradual, but others could be more abrupt as systems cross critical ecological thresholds. Transportation and hydroelectric production are two of the socio-economic sectors most vulnerable to change in freshwater-ice regimes. Ice roads will require expensive on-land replacements while hydroelectric operations will both benefit and be challenged. The ability to undertake some traditional harvesting methods will also be affected.

140 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies and forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century.
Abstract: Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in sub-arctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.

136 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In the past decade, the Arctic has experienced its highest temperatures of the instrumental record, even exceeding the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s as mentioned in this paper, and recent paleo-reconstructions also show that recent Arctic summer temperatures are higher than at any time in the past 2000 years.
Abstract: During the past decade, the Arctic has experienced its highest temperatures of the instrumental record, even exceeding the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s. Recent paleo-reconstructions also show that recent Arctic summer temperatures are higher than at any time in the past 2000 years. The geographical distribution of the recent warming points strongly to an influence of sea ice reduction. The spatial pattern of the near-surface warming also shows the signature of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Pacific sector as well as the influence of a dipole-like circulation pattern in the Atlantic sector. Areally averaged Arctic precipitation over the land areas north of 55°N shows large year-to-year variability, superimposed on an increase of about 5% since 1950. The years since 2000 have been wetter than average according to both precipitation and river discharge data. There are indications of increased cloudiness over the Arctic, especially low clouds during the warm season, consistent with a longer summer and a reduction of summer sea ice. Storm events and extreme high temperature show signs of increases. The Arctic Ocean has experienced enhanced oceanic heat inflows from both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The Pacific inflows evidently played a role in the retreat of sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, while the Atlantic water heat influx has been characterized by increasingly warm pulses. Recent shipboard observations show increased ocean heat storage in newly sea-ice-free ocean areas, with increased influence on autumn atmospheric temperature and wind fields.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The economic feasibility analysis taking into account the environmental benefits shows that the phosphorus recovery is viable not only from sustainable development but also from an economic point of view.
Abstract: Phosphorus recovery from wastewater has become a necessity for sustainable development because phosphorus is a non-renewable essential resource, and its discharge into the environment causes serious negative impacts. There are no economic incentives for the implementation of phosphorus recovery technologies because the selling price of rock phosphate is lower than phosphorus recovered from sewage. The methodologies used to determine the feasibility of such projects are usually focused on internal costs without considering environmental externalities. This article shows a methodology to assess the economic feasibility of wastewater phosphorus recovery projects that takes into account internal and external impacts. The shadow price of phosphorus is estimated using the directional distance function to measure the environmental benefits obtained by preventing the discharge of phosphorus into the environment. The economic feasibility analysis taking into account the environmental benefits shows that the phosphorus recovery is viable not only from sustainable development but also from an economic point of view.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article develops a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery, and discusses the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes.
Abstract: Globally, urban growth will add 1.5 billion people to cities by 2030, making the difficult task of urban water provisions even more challenging. In this article, we develop a conceptual framework of urban water provision as composed of three axes: water availability, water quality, and water delivery. For each axis, we calculate quantitative proxy measures for all cities with more than 50,000 residents, and then briefly discuss the strategies cities are using in response if they are deficient on one of the axes. We show that 523 million people are in cities where water availability may be an issue, 890 million people are in cities where water quality may be an issue, and 1.3 billion people are in cities where water delivery may be an issue. Tapping into groundwater is a widespread response, regardless of the management challenge, with many cities unsustainably using this resource. The strategies used by cities deficient on the water delivery axis are different than for cities deficient on the water quantity or water quality axis, as lack of financial resources pushes cities toward a different and potentially less effective set of strategies.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, changes in sea ice, snow cover, lake and river ice, and permafrost will affect economy, infrastructure, health, and indigenous and non-indigenous livelihoods, culture, and identity.
Abstract: Changes in sea ice, snow cover, lake and river ice, and permafrost will affect economy, infrastructure, health, and indigenous and non-indigenous livelihoods, culture, and identity. Local residents are resilient and highly adaptive, but the rate and magnitude of change challenges the current adaptive capacity. Cryospheric changes create both challenges and opportunities, and occur along local, regional, and international dimensions. Such changes will provide better access to the Arctic and its resources thereby increasing human activities such as shipping and tourism. Cryospheric changes pose a number of challenges for international governance, human rights, safety, and search and rescue efforts. In addition to the direct effects of a changing cryosphere, human society is affected by indirect factors, including industrial developments, globalization, and societal changes, which contribute to shaping vulnerability and adaptation options. Combined with non-cryospheric drivers of change, this will result in multifaceted and cascading effects within and beyond the Arctic.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Evidence of increases of each of the dominant canopy-forming willow species, including Salix richardsonii, Salix glauca and Salix pulchra, during the twentieth century is found, indicating expansion in canopy cover and height on Herschel Island.
Abstract: Canopy-forming shrubs are reported to be increasing at sites around the circumpolar Arctic. Our results indicate expansion in canopy cover and height of willows on Herschel Island located at 70° north on the western Arctic coast of the Yukon Territory. We examined historic photographs, repeated vegetation surveys, and conducted monitoring of long-term plots and found evidence of increases of each of the dominant canopy-forming willow species (Salix richardsonii, Salix glauca and Salix pulchra), during the twentieth century. A simple model of patch initiation indicates that the majority of willow patches for each of these species became established between 1910 and 1960, with stem ages and maximum growth rates indicating that some patches could have established as late as the 1980s. Collectively, these results suggest that willow species are increasing in canopy cover and height on Herschel Island. We did not find evidence that expansion of willow patches is currently limited by herbivory, disease, or growing conditions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that offshore exploitation of larger predatory fish has contributed to the increase in mesopredator fish also along the coasts, with indirect negative effects on important benthic habitats and coastal water quality.
Abstract: By mainly targeting larger predatory fish, commercial fisheries have indirectly promoted rapid increases in densities of their prey; smaller predatory fish like sprat, stickleback and gobies. This process, known as mesopredator release, has effectively transformed many marine offshore basins into mesopredator-dominated ecosystems. In this article, we discuss recent indications of trophic cascades on the Atlantic and Baltic coasts of Sweden, where increased abundances of mesopredatory fish are linked to increased nearshore production and biomass of ephemeral algae. Based on synthesis of monitoring data, we suggest that offshore exploitation of larger predatory fish has contributed to the increase in mesopredator fish also along the coasts, with indirect negative effects on important benthic habitats and coastal water quality. The results emphasize the need to rebuild offshore and coastal populations of larger predatory fish to levels where they regain their control over lower trophic levels and important links between offshore and coastal systems are restored.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There are still many biophysical, socio-economic, and political problems or constraints that need to be solved or taken into account for sustainable development in rural China.
Abstract: Since China initiated economic reforms and an open-door policy in 1978, rural China has made remarkable achievements during the past three decades. The GDP of rural China increased from 2.8 trillion yuan (1 U.S. dollar = 6.7 yuan) in 1996 to 8.8 trillion yuan in 2008, with the annual growth rate at around 10%, and the average annual income per capita in rural China reached 4,761 yuan in 2008, with the growth rate of 8%. However, there are still many biophysical, socio-economic, and political problems or constraints that need to be solved or taken into account for sustainable development in rural China. Among them, rural land issue has always been a concern of the Chinese government and people (Long et al. 2010).

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The present treeline altitude in three valleys of a region in the western Italian Alps is defined and the past treeline position for the last three centuries is reconstructed by means of a dendrochronological approach to find that it is mainly controlled by human impacts and geomorphological factors.
Abstract: Global warming and the stronger regional temperature trends recently recorded over the European Alps have triggered several biological and physical dynamics in high-altitude environments. We defined the present treeline altitude in three valleys of a region in the western Italian Alps and reconstructed the past treeline position for the last three centuries in a nearly undisturbed site by means of a dendrochronological approach. We found that the treeline altitude in this region is mainly controlled by human impacts and geomorphological factors. The reconstruction of the altitudinal dynamics at the study site reveals that the treeline shifted upwards of 115 m over the period 1901–2000, reaching the altitude of 2505 m in 2000 and 2515 m in 2008. The recent treeline shift and the acceleration of tree colonization rates in the alpine belt can be mainly ascribed to the climatic input. However, we point out the increasing role of geomorphological factors in controlling the future treeline position and colonization patterns in high mountains.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.
Abstract: Shrubs and trees are expected to expand in the sub-Arctic due to global warming. Our study was conducted in Abisko, sub-arctic Sweden. We recorded the change in coverage of shrub and tree species over a 32– to 34-year period, in three 50 × 50 m plots; in the alpine-tree-line ecotone. The cover of shrubs and trees (<3.5 cm diameter at breast height) were estimated during 2009–2010 and compared with historical documentation from 1976 to 1977. Similarly, all tree stems (≥3.5 cm) were noted and positions determined. There has been a substantial increase of cover of shrubs and trees, particularly dwarf birch (Betula nana), and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), and an establishment of aspen (Populus tremula). The other species willows (Salix spp.), juniper (Juniperus communis), and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) revealed inconsistent changes among the plots. Although this study was unable to identify the causes for the change in shrubs and small trees, they are consistent with anticipated changes due to climate change and reduced herbivory.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, future projections of lake ice indicate increasingly later freeze-ups and earlier break-ups, decreasing ice thickness, and changes in cover composition, particularly white-ice, and projected future decreases in south to north air temperature gradients suggest that the severity of ice-jam flooding may be reduced but this could be mitigated by changes in the magnitude of spring snowmelt.
Abstract: Paleolimnological evidence from some Arctic lakes suggests that longer ice-free seasons have been experienced since the beginning of the nineteenth century. It has been inferred from some additional records that many Arctic lakes may have crossed an important ecological threshold as a result of recent warming. In the instrumental record, long-term trends exhibit increasingly later freeze-ups and earlier break-ups, closely corresponding to increasing air temperature trends, but with greater sensitivity at the more temperate latitudes. Broad spatial patterns in these trends are also related to major atmospheric circulation patterns. Future projections of lake ice indicate increasingly later freeze-ups and earlier break-ups, decreasing ice thickness, and changes in cover composition, particularly white-ice. For rivers, projected future decreases in south to north air-temperature gradients suggest that the severity of ice-jam flooding may be reduced but this could be mitigated by changes in the magnitude of spring snowmelt.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that a consequence of local adaptation, isolation and genetic endemism is an increased risk of failure in restoring extinct Baltic populations, and restricted availability of genetic variation owing to lost variation and isolation may negatively impact the potential for evolutionary rescue following environmental change.
Abstract: Environmental change challenges local and global survival of populations and species. In a species-poor environment like the Baltic Sea this is particularly critical as major ecosystem functions may be upheld by single species. A complex interplay between demographic and genetic characteristics of species and populations determines risks of local extinction, chances of re-establishment of lost populations, and tolerance to environmental changes by evolution of new adaptations. Recent studies show that Baltic populations of dominant marine species are locally adapted, have lost genetic variation and are relatively isolated. In addition, some have evolved unusually high degrees of clonality and others are representatives of endemic (unique) evolutionary lineages. We here suggest that a consequence of local adaptation, isolation and genetic endemism is an increased risk of failure in restoring extinct Baltic populations. Additionally, restricted availability of genetic variation owing to lost variation and isolation may negatively impact the potential for evolutionary rescue following environmental change.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: China leads the world in afforestation, and is one of the few countries whose forested area is increasing, but this massive “greening” effort has been less effective than expected and has sometimes produced unintended environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences.
Abstract: China leads the world in afforestation, and is one of the few countries whose forested area is increasing. However, this massive “greening” effort has been less effective than expected; afforestation has sometimes produced unintended environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic consequences, and has failed to achieve the desired ecological benefits. Where afforestation has succeeded, the approach was tailored to local environmental conditions. Using the right plant species or species composition for the site and considering alternatives such as grassland restoration have been important success factors. To expand this success, government policy should shift from a forest-based approach to a results-based approach. In addition, long-term monitoring must be implemented to provide the data needed to develop a cost-effective, scientifically informed restoration policy.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show evidence of substantial change in the Arctic, with large variations among different geographical areas, and some habitats and their associated ecosystems are expanding, while others are undergoing rapid contraction.
Abstract: Snow, water, ice, and permafrost are showing evidence of substantial change in the Arctic, with large variations among different geographical areas. As a result of these changes, some habitats and their associated ecosystems are expanding, while others are undergoing rapid contraction. The warming of the Arctic cryosphere is limiting the range for cold-adapted biota, and less specialized taxa including invasive species from the south are likely to become increasingly common. Extreme climate events such as winter thawing are likely to become more frequent, and may accelerate shifts in community structure and processes. Many Arctic ecosystems are interdependent, and changes in the cryosphere are altering physical, biogeochemical, and biological linkages, as well as causing positive feedback effects on atmospheric warming. All of these climate-related effects are compounded by rapid socio-economic development in the North, creating additional challenges for northern communities and indigenous lifestyles that depend on Arctic ecosystem services.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article uses a case study in Southeast China to demonstrate how the substantial changes in rural livelihoods have been driven by a combination of “pull’ forces from external economic development, and “push” forces from local areas, leading to a shift in rural household economic activities.
Abstract: This article uses a case study in Southeast China to demonstrate how the substantial changes in rural livelihoods have been driven by a combination of “pull” forces from external economic development, and “push” forces from local areas, leading to a shift in rural household economic activities: household outmigration and de-population of the countryside, changes in energy consumption, and most importantly, changes in land uses and eventually, ecological restoration. Such dramatic changes are becoming common across the Chinese countryside. It is pointed out that economic development has generally caused a deterioration of the environment at least at the early period of economic growth, but the positive impacts, especially in some ecosystem in rural areas, have become more apparent.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.
Abstract: Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s, and eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat.
Abstract: Scientific complexity and uncertainty is a key challenge for environmental risk governance and to understand how risks are framed and communicated is of utmost importance. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, and hazardous chemicals. Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, this study discusses media representations of these risks. The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s. Many articles acknowledge several risks, but eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat. Authorities, experts, organizations, and politicians are the dominating actors, while citizens and industry representatives are more or less invisible. Eutrophication is not framed in terms of uncertainty concerning the risk and consequences, but rather in terms of main causes.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The loss of plant species associated with mineral-rich areas should be added to the list of ecologic and genetic damages recurrently derived from surface-mining activities.
Abstract: Environmental degradation due to mining activities is pervasive in most mineral-rich countries and has been given little attention by the authorities. Surface mining frequently targets very specific and evolutionary unique ecosystems, usually on mountaintops, and is characterized by high environmental impact and irreversibility (Jacobi and do Carmo 2008; Gibson et al. 2010). Recently, the negative impacts of coal surface mining were exposed in relation to ecosystem degradation and damages to human health, underlining the need to improve regulatory measures to mitigate them (Palmer et al. 2010). The loss of plant species associated with mineral-rich areas should be added to the list of ecologic and genetic damages recurrently derived from surface-mining activities.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Data is used from the four Swedish Integrated Monitoring catchments to evaluate how the declining sulfur deposition has affected sulfate, pH, acid neutralizing capacity, ionic strength, aluminum, and dissolved organic carbon in soil water, groundwater and runoff.
Abstract: Recovery from anthropogenic acidification in streams and lakes is well documented across the northern hemisphere. In this study, we use 1996–2009 data from the four Swedish Integrated Monitoring catchments to evaluate how the declining sulfur deposition has affected sulfate, pH, acid neutralizing capacity, ionic strength, aluminum, and dissolved organic carbon in soil water, groundwater and runoff. Differences in recovery rates between catchments, between recharge and discharge areas and between soil water and groundwater are assessed. At the IM sites, atmospheric deposition is the main human impact. The chemical trends were weakly correlated to the sulfur deposition decline. Other factors, such as marine influence and catchment features, seem to be as important. Except for pH and DOC, soil water and groundwater showed similar trends. Discharge areas acted as buffers, dampening the trends in streamwater. Further monitoring and modeling of these hydraulically active sites should be encouraged.

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TL;DR: It is suggested that environmental safety could be improved by increased use of smart governance mechanisms tightly adapted to key actors’ incentives to alter behavior in preferable directions.
Abstract: Marine governance of oil transportation is complex. Due to difficulties in effectively monitoring procedures on vessels en voyage, incentives to save costs by not following established regulations on issues such as cleaning of tanks, crew size, and safe navigation may be substantial. The issue of problem structure is placed in focus, that is, to what degree the specific characteristics and complexity of intentional versus accidental oil spill risks affect institutional responses. It is shown that whereas the risk of accidental oil spills primarily has been met by technical requirements on the vessels in combination with Port State control, attempts have been made to curb intentional pollution by for example increased surveillance and smart governance mechanisms such as the No-Special-Fee system. It is suggested that environmental safety could be improved by increased use of smart governance mechanisms tightly adapted to key actors’ incentives to alter behavior in preferable directions.

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TL;DR: Analyzing the impacts of a devastating earthquake on forest recovery and avoided forest loss estimated to have been obtained by two of the largest conservation programs in the world shows that more than 10% of the forests in Wenchuan County, Sichuan province, China were immediately affected by the 2008 earthquake.
Abstract: Conservation policies are increasing in response to human-induced ecosystem degradation, but little is known about their interplay with natural disasters. Through an analysis of satellite imagery and field data we evaluated the impacts of a devastating earthquake on forest recovery and avoided forest loss estimated to have been obtained by two of the largest conservation programs in the world. Results show that more than 10% of the forests in Wenchuan County, Sichuan province, China were immediately affected by the 2008 earthquake, offsetting some gains in forest cover observed since the enactment of the conservation programs. But without the enactment of these conservation programs, the combined effects of human disturbance and earthquake-induced landslides could have severely reduced the region’s forest cover. The continuation—and enhancement—of incentives for participation in conservation programs will be important for reducing the environmental impacts of the combined effects of human disturbance and natural hazards not only in the study area but also in many disaster-prone regions around the world.