Showing papers in "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2010"

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Abstract: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice m...

The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)Unifying Tropical Cyclone Data

Abstract: The goal of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project is to collect the historical tropical cyclone best-track data from all available Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) and other agencies, combine the disparate datasets into one product, and disseminate in formats used by the tropical cyclone community Each RSMC forecasts and monitors storms for a specific region and annually archives best-track data, which consist of information on a storm's position, intensity, and other related parameters IBTrACS is a new dataset based on the best-track data from numerous sources Moreover, rather than preferentially selecting one track and intensity for each storm, the mean position, the original intensities from the agencies, and summary statistics are provided This article discusses the dataset construction, explores the tropical cyclone climatology from IBTrACS, and concludes with an analysis of uncertainty in the tropical cyclone intensity record

THE CALIPSO MISSION: A Global 3D View of Aerosols and Clouds

Abstract: Aerosols and clouds have important effects on Earth's climate through their effects on the radiation budget and the cycling of water between the atmosphere and Earth's surface. Limitations in our understanding of the global distribution and properties of aerosols and clouds are partly responsible for the current uncertainties in modeling the global climate system and predicting climate change. The CALIPSO satellite was developed as a joint project between NASA and the French space agency CNES to provide needed capabilities to observe aerosols and clouds from space. CALIPSO carries CALIOP, a two-wavelength, polarization-sensitive lidar, along with two passive sensors operating in the visible and thermal infrared spectral regions. CALIOP is the first lidar to provide long-term atmospheric measurements from Earth's orbit. Its profiling and polarization capabilities offer unique measurement capabilities. Launched together with the CloudSat satellite in April 2006 and now flying in formation with the A-train satellite constellation, CALIPSO is now providing information on the distribution and properties of aerosols and clouds, which is fundamental to advancing our understanding and prediction of climate. This paper provides an overview of the CALIPSO mission and instruments, the data produced, and early results.

EC-Earth A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action

Abstract: The EC-Earth consortium is a grouping of meteorologists and Earth-system scientists from 10 European countries, put together to face the challenges of climate and weather forecasting. The NWP system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) forms the basis of the EC-Earth Earth-system model. NWP models are designed to accurately capture short-term atmospheric fluctuations. They are used for forecasts at daily-to-seasonal time scales and include data assimilation capabilities. Climate models are designed to represent the global coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The atmospheric model of EC-Earth version 2, is based on ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), cycle 31R1, corresponding to the current seasonal forecast system of ECMWF. The EC-Earth consortium and ECMWF are collaborating on development of initialization procedures to improve long-term predictions. The EC-Earth model displays good performance from daily up to inter-annual time scales and for long-term mean climate.

The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Improving the Accessibility of Observed and Projected Climate Information for Studies of Climate Change in Developing Countries

Abstract: Improving the Accessibility of Observed and Projected Climate Information for Studies of Climate Change in Developing Countries.

The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble

Abstract: Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Globa l Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble ...

A Multiscalar Global Drought Dataset: The SPEIbase: A New Gridded Product for the Analysis of Drought Variability and Impacts

Abstract: This work has been supported by the research projects CGL2008-01189/BTE and CGL2006-11619/HID, funded by the Spanish Commission of Science and Technology and FEDER; EUROGEOSS (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226487) and ACQWA (FP7-ENV-2007-1- 212250), funded by the VII Framework Programme of the European Commission; and “Las sequias climaticas en la cuenca del Ebro y su respuesta hidrologica” and “La nieve en el Pirineo aragones: Distribucion espacial y su respuesta a las condiciones climatica,” funded by “Obra Social La Caixa” and the Aragon Government.

The Untold Story of Pyrocumulonimbus

Abstract: Wildfire is becoming the focus of increasing attention. It is now realized that changes in the occurrence frequency and intensity of wildfires has important significant consequences for a variety of important problems, including atmospheric change and safety in the urban–wildland interface. One important but poorly understood aspect of wildfire behavior—pyrocumulonimbus firestorm dynamics and atmospheric impact—has a curious history of theory and observation. The “pyroCb” is a fire-started or fire-augmented thunderstorm that in its most extreme manifestation injects huge abundances of smoke and other biomass-burning emissions into the lower stratosphere. The observed hemispheric spread of smoke and other biomass-burning emissions could have important climate consequences. PyroCbs have been spawned naturally and through anthropogenesis, and they are hypothesized as being part of the theoretical “Nuclear nuclear winter” work. However, direct attribution of the stratospheric aerosols to the pyroCb only occur...

Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities

Abstract: Several recommendations have been proposed for detecting land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the environment from, observed climatic records and to modeling to improve its understanding and its impacts on climate. Researchers need to detect LULCCs accurately at appropriate scales within a specified time period to better understand their impacts on climate and provide improved estimates of future climate. The US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) can be helpful in monitoring impacts of LULCC on near-surface atmospheric conditions, including temperature. The USCRN measures temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and ground or skin temperature. It is recommended that the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and other climate monitoring agencies develop plans and seek funds to address any monitoring biases that are identified and for which detailed analyses have not been completed.

State of the Climate in 2009

Abstract: This report describes observations of precipitation, temperature, and other climatology metrics from different global regions.

Reanalyses Suitable for Characterizing Long-Term Trends

Abstract: Reanalyses are, by a substantial margin, the most utilized climate data products, and they are applied in a myriad of different contexts. Despite their popularity, there are substantial concerns about their suitability for the monitoring of long-term climate trends. This has led to calls for a truly “climate quality” reanalysis that retains long-term trend fidelity. The authors contend that for such a reanalysis to be achieved, a substantial rethinking of the current strategy for producing reanalysis products is required. First, the problem must be defined clearly. Second, the methodology that is employed must be reconsidered so as to minimize potential nonclimatic artifacts and robustly ascertain the inevitable residual uncertainty. Finally, a set of validation data and metrics must be constructed that the community can use to compare and unambiguously assess the claims of climate quality. The purpose of this essay is very much to initiate discussions to this end rather than to prescribe solutions.

A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden–Julian Oscillation Forecasts

Abstract: The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group (MJOWG) has taken steps to promote the adoption of a uniform diagnostic and set of skill metrics for analyzing and assessing dynamical forecasts of the MJO. Here we describe the framework and initial implementation of the approach using real-time forecast data from multiple operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. The objectives of this activity are to provide a means to i) quantitatively compare skill of MJO forecasts across operational centers, ii) measure gains in forecast skill over time by a given center and the community as a whole, and iii) facilitate the development of a multimodel forecast of the MJO. The MJO diagnostic is based on extensive deliberations among the MJOWG in conjunction with input from a number of operational centers and makes use of the MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon. This forecast activity has been endorsed by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), the international body th...

Collaboration of the Weather and Climate Communities to Advance Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction

Abstract: The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonalto-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achi...

A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden–Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project

Abstract: The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group (MJOWG) has taken steps to promote the adoption of a uniform diagnostic and set of skill metrics for analyzing and assessing dynamical forecasts of the MJO. Here we describe the framework and initial implementation of the approach using real-time forecast data from multiple operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. The objectives of this activity are to provide a means to i) quantitatively compare skill of MJO forecasts across operational centers, ii) measure gains in forecast skill over time by a given center and the community as a whole, and iii) facilitate the development of a multimodel forecast of the MJO. The MJO diagnostic is based on extensive deliberations among the MJOWG in conjunction with input from a number of operational centers and makes use of the MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon. This forecast activity has been endorsed by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), the internationa...

RADAR-Rainfall Uncertainties

Abstract: Thirty years ago, Wilson and Brandes determined that radar data was “underutilized and both confusion and misunderstanding exist about the inherent ability of radar to measure rainfall, about factors that contribute to errors, and about the importance of careful calibration and signal processing.” In their seminal work, they addressed these issues by delineating the strengths and weaknesses of radar data and offering a detailed discussion of the different sources of uncertainties associated with radar-based estimates of rainfall. After three decades, we want to underscore the importance of Wilson and Brandes' paper by using it as a reference for discussing subsequent improvements in operational radar-rainfall technology in the United States. We replicated their analysis as closely as we could and present the results in this paper. Our results, which are based on an analysis of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data, indicate fairly substantial improvement in terms of the statistical measur...

Verifying Forecasts Spatially

Abstract: Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be classified into four broad categories (neighborhood, scale separation, features based, and field deformation), which themselves can be further generalized into two categories of filter and displacement. Because the methods make use of spatial information in widely different ways, users may be uncertain about what types of information each provides, and which methods may be most beneficial for particular applications. As an international project, the Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project (ICP; www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/icp) was formed to address these questions. This project was coordinated by NCAR and facilitated by the WMO/World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research. An overview of t...

CLOUDS AND MORE: ARM Climate Modeling Best Estimate Data

Abstract: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program (www.arm.gov) was created in 1989 to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. A central activity is the acquisition of detailed observations of clouds and radiation, as well as related atmospheric variables for climate model evaluation and improvement. Since 1992, ARM has established six permanent ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF) sites and deployed an ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) in diverse climate regimes around the world (Fig. 1) to perform long-term continuous field measurements. The time record of ACRF data now exceeds a decade at most ACRF fixed sites and ranges from several months to one year for AMF deployments. Billions of measurements are currently stored in millions of data files in the ACRF Data Archive. The long-term continuous ACRF data provide invaluable information to improve our understanding of the interaction between clouds and radiation, and an observational basis for model validation and improvement and climate studies. Given the huge number of data files and current diversity of archived ACRF data structures, however, it can be difficult for anmore » outside user such as a climate modeler to quickly find the ACRF data product(s) that best meets their research needs. The required geophysical quantities may exist in multiple data streams, and over the history of ACRF operations, the measurements could be obtained by a variety of instruments, reviewed with different levels of data quality assurance, or derived using different algorithms. In addition, most ACRF data are stored in daily-based files with a temporal resolution that ranges from a few seconds to a few minutes, which is much finer than that sought by some users. Therefore, it is not as convenient for data users to perform quick comparisons over large spans of data, and this can hamper the use of ACRF data by the climate community. To make ACRF data better serve the needs of climate studies and model development, ARM has developed a data product specifically tailored for use by the climate community. The new data product, named the Climate Modeling Best Estimate (CMBE) dataset, assembles those quantities that are both well observed by ACRF over many years and are often used in model evaluation into one single dataset. The CMBE product consists of hourly averages and thus has temporal resolution comparable to a typical resolution used in climate model output. It also includes standard deviations within the averaged hour and quality control flags for the selected quantities to indicate the temporal variability and data quality. Since its initial release in February 2008, the new data product has quickly drawn the attention of the climate modeling community. It is being used for model evaluation by two major U.S. climate modeling centers, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of CMBE data and a few examples that demonstrate the potential value of CMBE data for climate modeling and in studies of cloud processes and climate variability and change.« less

PARISFOG: Shedding New Light on Fog Physical Processes

Abstract: Fog is a weather condition with significant socioeconomic impacts associated with increased hazards and constraints in road, maritime, and air traffic. While current numerical weather prediction models are able to forecast situations that are favorable to fog events, it is very difficult to determine the exact location and time of formation or dissipation. One-dimensional assimilation-forecast models have been implemented at a few airports and provide improved local predictions of fog events, but this approach is limited to specific locations. The occurrence, development, and dissipation of fog result from multiple processes (thermodynamical, radiative, dynamical, microphysical) that occur simultaneously, through a wide range of conditions, and that interact nonlinearly with each other. Hence, to advance our ability to forecast fog processes, we must gain a better understanding of how critical physical processes feed back on each other and improve their parametric representations in models. To provide a dataset suitable to study these processes simultaneously in continental fog, a suite of active and passive remote sensing instruments and in situ sensors was deployed at the Site Instrumental de Recherche en Teledetection Atmospherique (SIRTA; instrumented site for atmospheric remote sensing research) observatory, near Paris, France, for 6 months (winter 2006/07) to monitor profiles of wind, turbulence, microphysical, and radiative properties as well as temperature, humidity, aerosol, and fog droplet microphysics and chemical composition in the surface layer. This field experiment, called ParisFog, provides a comprehensive characterization of over 100 fog and near-fog events. The ParisFog dataset contains contrasted events of stratus-lowering fog and radiative cooling fog as well as a large number of situations considered as favorable to fog formation but where fog droplets did not materialize. The effect of hydrated aerosols on visibility, the role of aerosols' microphysical and chemical properties on supersaturation and droplet activation, and the role of turbulence and sedimentation on fog life cycles have been investigated using the ParisFog dataset. The interactions between these processes, however, remain to be explored.

Influence of choice of time period on global surface temperature trend estimates

Abstract: Annual global surface temperature and global land surface temperature trends are calculated for all possible periods of the historical record between 1850 and 2009. Two-dimensional parameter diagrams show the critical influence of the choice of start and end years on the calculated trend and associated temperature changes and suggest time scales required to establish robust trends. The largest trends and associated temperature changes are all positive and have occurred over periods ending in recent years. Substantial positive changes also occurred from the early twentieth century until the mid-1940s. The continents exhibit greater long-term warming than the global average overall, but less warming in the early part of the century (segments ending in the 1940s). The recent period of short-term cooling beginning in the late 1990s is neither statistically significant nor unusual in the context of trend variability in the full historical record. Global-mean and land surface temperature changes for periods end...

Accelerating progress in global atmospheric model development through improved parameterizations: challenges, opportunities, and strategies

Abstract: Meeting societal needs in weather, seasonal, and decadal prediction and climate projection requires a continuous improvement of the main tools used in making the predictions—global models of the Earth system. Despite significant progress in model development over the past few decades, several long-standing model systematic errors remain in most global models. This essay analyzes the model development process with the aim to identify a strategy to accelerate model development. It is argued that the main effort in doing so must focus on two main areas: i) improved diagnostic techniques that are aimed directly at identifying the key process involved in the major model errors and ii) a significant increase in the size of the currently too-small model development community through better collaboration of the academic community with modeling centers and through improving the image of the science of model development in the broader community. Success will strongly depend on the ability of bringing several commun...

Whither the Stable Boundary Layer

Abstract: C learly no other part of the atmosphere is more important to Earth’s ecosystems than its lowest layer, known as the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The land surface exchanges heat, mass, and momentum with the free atmosphere through the ABL, and naturally the ABL is affected by orography, land use, external forcing (e.g., radiation), and Earth’s rotation. Environmental changes, whether due to slowly evolving global warming or rapidly dispersing atmospheric releases, permeate through to living organisms via the ABL. During the daytime, the ABL is driven by surface heating [the convective boundary layer (CBL)], whereas radiative cooling near the ground at night leads to the stable boundary layer (SBL). The nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) is the most common manifestation of SBL, with notable exceptions being areas where the urban heat island eliminates the near-surface stable stratification and polar regions where the SBL can persist continuously for days. The SBL breaks down into a CBL during the “morning transition,” and the CBL collapses to an SBL during the “evening transition.” Over the past half century, the progress in understanding the CBL has far outpaced the SBL; the much stronger forcing in the CBL makes measurement and modeling of turbulence therein much easier. Conversely, the SBL encapsulates a unique mix of processes that are generally much weaker (at least in total) and often difficult to measure at their scales of influence (let alone over multiple scales), study in isolation, or parameterize robustly. These processes interact in nonlinear way such that emerging new phenomena overshadow the contributing processes, and direct parameterizations of the former based on an understanding of the latter may not be viable. A greater emphasis is therefore needed on the interactions of SBL processes and the resulting modification of heat, mass, and momentum fluxes. Modeling of commonly sought meteorological and air quality indicators—surface temperature and wind speed/direction, fog, air pollution, and dispersion of chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants—relies heavily on 

A Mobile, Phased-Array Doppler Radar For The Study of Severe Convective Storms

Abstract: A mobile X-band, phased-array Doppler radar was acquired from the U.S. Army by the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) at the Naval Postgraduate School and adapted for meteorological use by ProSensing, Inc. The radar was used during field experiments conducted in the Southern Plains by faculty and students from the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma during the spring storm seasons of 2007 and 2008. During these field experiments, storm-scale, rapid-scan, volumetric, Doppler-radar observations were obtained in tornadic and nontornadic supercells, quasilinear mesoscale convective systems, and in both boundary layer–based and elevated ordinary convective cells. A case is made for the use of the radar for studies of convective weather systems and other weather phenomena that evolve on time scales as short as tens of seconds.

Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh

Abstract: The authors have developed a new extended-range flood forecasting system for large river basins that uses satellite data and statistically rendered probabilistic weather and climate predictions to initialize basin-scale hydrological models. The forecasting system overcomes the absence of upstreamflow data, a problem that is prevalent in the developing world. Forecasts of the Ganges and Brahmaputra discharge into Bangladesh were made in real time on 1–10-day time horizons for the period 2003–08. Serious flooding of the Brahmaputra occurred in 2004, 2007, and 2008. Detailed forecasts of the flood onset and withdrawal were made 10 days in advance for each of the flooding events with correlations at 10 days ≥0.8 and Brier scores <0.05. Extensions to 15 days show useable skill. Based on the 1–10-day forecasts of the 2007 and 2008 floods, emergency managers in Bangladesh were able to act preemptively, arrange the evacuation of populations in peril along the Brahmaputra, and minimize financial loss. The particul...

The Stratosphere–Troposphere Analyses of Regional Transport 2008 Experiment

Abstract: The Stratosphere–Troposphere Analyses of Regional Transport 2008 (START08) experiment investigated a number of important processes in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) using the National Science Foundation (NSF)–NCAR Gulfstream V (GV) research aircraft. The main objective was to examine the chemical structure of the extratropical UTLS in relation to dynamical processes spanning a range of scales. The campaign was conducted during April–June 2008 from Broomfield, Colorado. A total of 18 research flights sampled an extensive geographical region of North America (25°–65°N, 80°–120°W) and a wide range of meteorological conditions. The airborne in situ instruments measured a comprehensive suite of chemical constituents and microphysical variables from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere, with flights specifically designed to target key transport processes in the extratropical UTLS. The flights successfully investigated stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) processes, ...

Satellite Data Simulator Unit: A Multisensor, Multispectral Satellite Simulator Package

Abstract: Several multisensor simulator packages are being developed by different research groups across the world. Such simulator packages [e.g., COSP , CRTM, ECSIM, RTTO, ISSARS (under development), and SDSU (this article), among others] share overall aims, although some are targeted more on particular satellite programs or specific applications (for research purposes or for operational use) than others. The SDSU or Satellite Data Simulator Unit is a general-purpose simulator composed of Fortran 90 codes and applicable to spaceborne microwave radiometer, radar, and visible/infrared imagers including, but not limited to, the sensors listed in a table. That shows satellite programs particularly suitable for multisensor data analysis: some are single satellite missions carrying two or more instruments, while others are constellations of satellites flying in formation. The TRMM and A-Train are ongoing satellite missions carrying diverse sensors that observe clouds and precipitation, and will be continued or augmented within the decade to come by future multisensor missions such as the GPM and Earth-CARE. The ultimate goals of these present and proposed satellite programs are not restricted to clouds and precipitation but are to better understand their interactions with atmospheric dynamics/chemistry and feedback to climate. The SDSU's applicability is not technically limited to hydrometeor measurements either, but may be extended to air temperature and humidity observations by tuning the SDSU to sounding channels. As such, the SDSU and other multisensor simulators would potentially contribute to a broad area of climate and atmospheric sciences. The SDSU is not optimized to any particular orbital geometry of satellites. The SDSU is applicable not only to low-Earth orbiting platforms as listed in Table 1, but also to geostationary meteorological satellites. Although no geosynchronous satellite carries microwave instruments at present or in the near future, the SDSU would be useful for future geostationary satellites with a microwave radiometer and/or a radar aboard, which could become more feasible as engineering challenges are met. In this short article, the SDSU algorithm architecture and potential applications are reviewed in brief.

AMMA-Model Intercomparison Project

Abstract: The African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses-Model Intercomparison Project (AMMA-MIP) was developed within the framework of the AMMA project. It is a relatively light intercomparison and evaluation exercise of both global and regional atmospheric models, focused on the study of the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the climate and rainfall over the Sahel. Taking advantage of the relative zonal symmetry of the West African climate, one major target of the exercise is the documentation of a meridional cross section made of zonally averaged (10°W-10°E) outputs. This paper presents the motivations and design of the exercise, and it discusses preliminary results and further extensions of the project.

Toward Objective, Standardized Intensity Estimates from Surface Wind Speed Observations

Abstract: Extreme wind climatology and event-specific intensity assessments rely heavily on surface wind field observations. The most widely used platforms sited at airports are the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and its predecessor, the Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS). The terrain immediately surrounding most of these stations may be nominally characterized as aero-dynamically very smooth because of the runways and flat expanses of grass that define most airport layouts. Outside of most airports, a wide spectrum of marine, open, suburban, and heavily built-up terrain conditions are present. The results of this research indicate that the wind speeds recorded by AWOS/ASOS are deeply sensitive to this terrain. Prior research has shown that direct usage of the raw surface data can introduce surface-layer wind speed errors on the order of 30%–40% due to terrain effects. Similar values are observed for gust speeds in this paper, when averaging technique and anemometer response characteristics are co...

An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

Abstract: Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

The Concordiasi Project in Antarctica

Abstract: The Concordiasi project is making innovative observations of the atmosphere above Antarctica. The most important goals of the Concordiasi are as follows: 1. To enhance the accuracy of weather prediction and climate records in Antarctica through the assimilation of in situ and satellite data, with an emphasis on data provided by hyperspectral infrared sounders. The focus is on clouds, precipitation, and the mass budget of the ice sheets. The improvements in dynamical model analyses and forecasts will be used in chemical-transport models that describe the links between the polar vortex dynamics and ozone depletion, and to advance the understanding of the Earth system by examining the interactions between Antarctica and lower latitudes. 2. To improve our understanding of microphysical and dynamical processes controlling the polar ozone, by providing the first quasi-Lagrangian observations of stratospheric ozone and particles, in addition to an improved characterization of the 3D polar vortex dynamics. Techniques for assimilating these Lagrangian observations are being developed. A major Concordiasi component is a field experiment during the austral springs of 2008-10. The field activities in 2010 are based on a constellation of up to 18 long-duration stratospheric super-pressure balloons (SPBs) deployed from the McMurdo station. Six of these balloons will carry GPS receivers and in situ instruments measuring temperature, pressure, ozone, and particles. Twelve of the balloons will release drop-sondes on demand for measuring atmospheric parameters. Lastly, radiosounding measurements are collected at various sites, including the Concordia station.

Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities

Abstract: The impending threat of global climate change and its regional manifestations is among the most important and urgent problems facing humanity. Society needs accurate and reliable estimates of changes in the probability of regional weather variations to develop science-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent advances in weather prediction and in our understanding and ability to model the climate system suggest that it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction to meet these societal needs. However, the scientific workforce and the computational capability required to bring about such a revolution is not available in any single nation. Motivated by the success of internationally funded infrastructure in other areas of science, this paper argues that, because of the complexity of the climate system, and because the regional manifestations of climate change are mainly through changes in the statistics of regional weather variations, the scientific and computational requireme...