Showing papers in "Criminology in 1996"

A meta‐analysis of the predictors of adult offender recidivism: what works!*

Abstract: Meta-analytic techniques were used to determine which predictor domains and actuarial assessment instruments were the best predictors of adult offender recidivism. One hundred and thirty-one studies produced 1,141 correlations with recidivism. The strongest predictor domains were criminogenic needs, criminal history/history of antisocial behavior, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors. Less robust predictors included intellectual functioning, personal distress factors, and socioeconomic status in the family of origin. Dynamic predictor domains performed at least as well as the static domains. The LSI-R was identified as the most useful actuarial measure. Recommendations for developing sound assessment practices in corrections are provided.

Specification problems, police levels, and crime rates*

Abstract: Research on the relationship between police and crime, like many criminological topics, is subject to uncertain causal direction and omitted controls. We recommend procedures that mitigate these problems: the Granger causality test, proxies for missing variables, robustness checks, and making data available to other researchers. Because specification problems are common in the social sciences, this strategy has applicability beyond the issue of police and crime. We analyze yearly police data and UCR crime rates, at the state and city levels, pooled over two decades. We find Granger causation in both directions. The impact of crime on the number of police is slight, but the impact of police on most crime types is substantial. The latter result is more robust at the city level.

Organization and instigation in delinquent groups

Abstract: The group character of delinquency has been recognized for more than 60 years, but the nature of delinquent groups remains poorly understood. Data from the National Survey of Youth are used to examine delinquent groups, with special attention to the identity and role of instigators in those groups. Delinquent groups are small and transitory, but offenders commonly belong to multiple groups and thus have a larger network or pool of accomplices. Groups appear to be more specialized than individuals, which suggests that offense specialization is the primary source of group differentiation. Most delinquent groups have an identifiable instigator, a person who tends to be older, more experienced, and emotionally close to other members. Males almost always follow other males, whereas females are much more likely to follow a member of the opposite sex. As a rule, offenders do not consistently assume the role of instigator or joiner over time, but instead switch from one role to the other depending on their relative position in the group in which they are participating at the time. The roles that offenders adopt are thus determined, not by some stable individual trait, but by the situational interaction of group and individual characteristics.

Self-control in a criminal sample: an examination of construct validity*

Abstract: Favorable evidence on the validity of the Grasmick et al. (1993) self-control scale has been reported in studies using general population samples. However, the scale has never been tested among persons extensively involved in crime. We assessed the construct validity of this scale, slightly revised, in a heterogeneous sample of drug-using criminal offenders. Factor analyses identified five subscales, mostly congruent with existing formulations of the self-control construct. Also, recent crimes of force and fraud were more frequent among people scoring lower on self-control. However, the five-factor solution was not tenable among women, and the scale was no more closely related to crime than were three subscales representing more specific constructs already established in criminology.

Self-reported delinquency and a combined delinquency seriousness scale based on boys, mothers, and teachers: concurrent and predictive validity for african-americans and caucasians*

Abstract: The Pittsburgh Youth Study is a prospective longitudinal survey of three samples of Pittsburgh boys (each containing about 500 boys) initially studied in first, fourth, and seventh grades. The first two data collection waves yielded self-reported delinquency and combined delinquency seriousness scores (the combined scores based on information from boy, mother, and teacher) for the middle sample (up to an average age of 10.7 years) and oldest sample (up to an average age of 13.9 years). These scores were compared with records of petitions to the Allegheny County Juvenile Court for delinquency offenses before and up to six years after the assessments. The area under the ROC curve was used as a measure of validity. Concurrent validity was higher than predictive validity. The combined scale had similar concurrent validity but greater predictive validity than the self-report scale, and the combined scale also identified a greater number of boys as serious delinquents. Concurrent validity for admitting offenses was higher for Caucasians, but concurrent validity for admitting arrests was higher for African-Americans. There were no consistent ethnic differences in predictive validity. There was an increase in predictive validity, for both African-Americans and Caucasians, by combining self-report data with information from other sources. Afrer controlling for delinquency measures, African-Americans were more likely than Caucasians to be petitioned in the future, but not in the past. In this research, ethnic differences in official delinquency were partly attributable to ethnic differences in delinquent behavior and were not attributable to differential ethnic attrition or differential ethnic validity of measures of delinquent behavior.

Adapting to strain: an examination of delinquent coping responses*

Abstract: Strain theories have conceptualized delinquency as a form of adaptive, problem-solving behavior, usually committed in response to problems involving frustrating and undesirable social environments. The most recent version of strain theory, Agnew's general strain theory, provides the most complete formulation of this argument by suggesting that delinquent behavior enables adolescents to cope with the socioemotional problems generated by negative social relations. To date, however, the actual coping effectiveness of delinquency remains unexamined. This study explores the ways that delinquency may enable adolescents to cope with strain, and it uses national survey data to test the coping effectiveness of delinquent behavior. The findings indicate that delinquency enables adolescents to minimize the negative emotional consequences of strain, and they provide empirical support for the interpretation of delinquency as an adaptive response to aversive environments. Implications for criminological theory are discussed.

Court communities under sentencing guidelines: dilemmas of formal rationality and sentencing disparity

Abstract: Efforts to structure sentencing through guidelines involve a fundamental dilemma for the sociology of law—guidelines attempt to emphasize formal rationality and uniformity (Savelsberg, 1992) while allowing discretion to tailor sentences to fit situations and characteristics of individual defendants when courts deem it warranted (substantive rationality). This exercise of substantive rationality in sentencing based on “extralegal” criteria deemed relevant by local court actors risks the kind of unwarranted disparity that guidelines were intended to reduce. We view local courts as arenas in which two sets of sentencing standards meet—formal rational ones articulated by guidelines vs. substantive, extralegal criteria deemed relevant by local court actors. We use statistical and qualitative data from Pennsylvania, a state whose courts have operated under sentencing guidelines for over a decade. Our analysis examines extralegal differences in three county courts' sentencing outcomes, and then documents ways in which substantive rational sentencing criteria are intertwined with defendants' exercise of their right to trial and their race and gender.

Race and prison violence

Abstract: Data from 58 male institutions in the federal correctional system were used to test for racial differences in both violent and alcohol/drug misconduct, controlling for a large number of individual, prison environment, and community background variables. Because “structurally” the in-prison station of black and white inmates is essentially identical, the data provide a unique methodological opportunity to test deprivation versus importation models of prison adjustment as well as more encompassing structural versus cultural theories of violence. The major findings are that, net of controls, black inmates have significantly higher rates of violent behavior but lower rates of alcohol/drug misconduct than white inmates. These patterns parallel those of racial differences in the larger society. We interpret these findings as supporting the importation theory of prison adjustment and the subculture of violence thesis regarding high rates of black violence in the larger society.

Big people hit little people: sex differences in physical power and interpersonal violence*

Abstract: The role of physical size and strength in sex differences in violence is examined using a sample of ex-offenders, ex-mental patients, and the general population. In incidents not involving weapons, males are more likely than females to engage in attacks and injure their adversaries, and females are more likely to be attacked and injured, primarily because of differences in physical power. In incidents involving weapons, the greater power of males is partially neutralized, and females are more likely than males to injure their adversary. The results show that physical differences between men and women are an important factor in explaining sex differences in violence.

Women in the street-level drug economy: continuity or change?*

Abstract: Images of women in the contemporary drug economy are highly mixed. Most scholars emphasize change in women's roles, some emphasize continuity, and others suggest that both change and continuity are evident. At issue is whether an increased share of women were involved in selling and higher-level distribution roles in the crack cocaine markets of the late 1980s and early 1990s, compared to the heroin markets of the 1960s and 1970s. We present the results of an ethnographic study of women drug users conducted during 1989–92 in a New York City neighborhood. Contrary to those who suggest that crack cocaine markets have provided “new opportunities” for women, we find that such opportunities were realized by men. At the same time, the conditions of street-level sex work, which has traditionally provided women drug users with a relatively stable source of income, have deteriorated.

Demeanor, crime, and police behavior: a reexamination of the police services study data*

Abstract: Recent research has called into question the seemingly well-established conclusion that the likelihood of arrest by the police rises when suspects display a disrespectful or hostile demeanor toward the police. In this article we reanalyze data collected for the Police Services Study, on which a substantial body of supporting evidence for this conclusion is based, to determine whether previous analyses of these data have misestimated the effects of demeanor on police behavior. We find that, insofar as the data permit us to address the criticisms, the original findings hold.

To kill or not to kill? Lethal outcomes in injurious attacks

Abstract: This research explores the utility of the notion of lethal intent for understanding the outcomes of injurious attacks. We suggest that assailants sometimes kill rather than merely injure victims to avoid either retaliation or criminal prosecution. We hypothesize that, for these tactical reasons, offenders will be more likely to kill when they have no accomplices, when their victims are male or black, and when the victim can identify them. These hypotheses are tested with a merged data set containing information on homicides and nonlethal victimizations involving robbery, rape, and pure assault. The results of multiple logistic regression analyses are largely consistent with theoretical expectations.

Organizational offending and neoclassical criminology: challenging the reach of a general theory of crime*

Abstract: This article examines and critiques Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime, with particular respect to its applicability to organizational offending. We question their views that the theory is adequately general and that typologies of crime are therefore unnecessary for criminological theory. Gottfredson and Hirschi have employed the case of white-collar crime to support their arguments, but they have con strained the test of their theory by focusing on the white-collar offenses that most resemble conventional crime. When organizational offending is included in white-collar crime, empirical and theoretical limitations of their project emerge. These limitations include the matters of defining and counting the phenomena of interest, the nature of the interest that commonly underlies them, and the role of opportunity in them. A satisfactory theory of organizational offending requires an adequate account of all these matters and will look substantially different from Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory of crime.

Is differential association/social learning cultural deviance theory?*

Abstract: Sutherland's differential association theory has long been criticized as a “cultural deviance” theory, and the critics have continued to apply this same designation to the theory's social-learning reformulation by Akers. According to this critique, differential association/social learning theory rests on the assumption that socialization is completely successful and that cultural variability is unlimited, cannot explain individual differences in deviance within the same group and applies only to group differences, has no way of explaining violation of norms to which the individual subscribes, and proposes culture as the single cause of crime. This article examines the basis and validity of this cultural deviance label. I conclude that the usual attribution of cultural deviance assumptions and explanations to differential association/ social learning theory is based on misinterpretations. Then, I offer a clarification of how cultural elements are incorporated into the theory.

Wage inequality and criminal activity: an extreme bounds analysis for the united states, 1975–1990*

Abstract: The past decades in the United States have been characterized by a widening in the distribution of wage income. While much research has attempted to uncover the causes of these earnings trends, much less is known about their impact upon social and economic factors. This study examines evidence for links between changes in distribution of wage income and criminal activity. Using extreme bounds analysis in conjunction with ordinary least squares regression, the study shows that robust results linking wage inequality and crime are obtainable across a rich set of model specifications for the violent crimes of murder and assault. No evidence is found linking wage inequality with the crimes of robbery and burglary. Results are inconclusive for larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, and forcible rape. These results should be viewed as a first stage in examining the link between wage inequality and criminal activity. Research into the specific behavioral complexities underlying these relationships should be considered to affirm these results.

Crack dealers and restrictive deterrence: identifying narcs*

Abstract: Data drawn from semistructured interviews with 40 active street-level crack dealers are used to illustrate, apply, and expand the concept of restrictive deterrence. The article focuses on the perceptual shorthand dealers use to determine whether buyers in question are “narcs.” In presenting this shorthand, the article seeks to demonstrate how interactions among marketplace democratization (i.e., the idea of selling to as many different customers as possible to maximize profits), marketplace volatility, transactional brevity, and threats from law enforcement affect its complexity and refinement. Respondents operated out of a medium-sized, midwestern metropolitan area (population: 2.2 million) within a central city of 390,000.

More on demeanor and arrest in dade county

Abstract: A recent study of police behavior using data collected in Dade County, Florida, found that citizen demeanor is a spurious correlate of arrest in light of control for criminal conduct (Klinger, 1994). This finding calls into question the long-standing belief that hostility directly increases the odds of arrest in police-citizen encounters. Responding to this research, Lundman (1994) reanalyzed data used in several previous studies that had reported hostility effects. His reanalysis offered limited support for a demeanor-arrest link. Because the measures of demeanor he used and the models he estimated were somewhat different from those Klinger had used and estimated, Lundman suggested that it would be valuable to revisit the Dade County data to see whether Klinger's null finding regarding hostility effects might be artifactual. This study reanalyzes the Dade County data. It indicates that one of four measures of demeanor is a significant net correlate of arrest under some circumstances. The implications of this finding are discussed.

Police productivity and crime rates: 1973‐1992*

Abstract: According to the Uniform Crime Reports, violent crime rates increased dramatically over the past two decades. National Crime Victimization Survey data, on the other hand, indicate that the rates of violent crime remained relatively stable or dropped during this period. Which series provides a “correct” estimate of crime-rate trends is of more than academic interest. Highly publicized statistics on crime trends influence the public's concerns about crime and the decisions of policymakers both directly through their own perceptions of crime trends and indirectly through demands by the general public to control crime. This article compares these two major series on trends in violent crime rates in the United States for the period 1973–1992, with the goal of assessing the extent to which they measure the same underlying phenomenon: fluctuations in violent crime rates. The series are related (but not strongly). My conclusion, with some reservation, is that changes in law enforcement agencies rather than changes in the rates of violent crime incidents have created the upward trend in UCR violent crime rates during the past two decades.

The influence of blame and believability factors on the processing of simple versus aggravated rape cases

Abstract: In this study we test two hypotheses concerning the processing of simple and aggravated rape cases. First, we test the hypothesis that aggravated rape cases are taken more seriously than simple rape cases by decision makers in the criminal justice system and, thus, aggravated cases will result in more serious outcomes. Second, we test the hypothesis that the influence of factors relating to the blame and believability of a victim on case processing is greater in simple than in aggravated rape cases. Our results indicate that the characteristics and outcomes of aggravated and simple rape cases are surprisingly similar, and that there is little evidence of an interaction between type of case and victim characteristics.

Determinate sentencing and abolishing parole: the long‐term impacts on prisons and crime*

Abstract: We estimate the impact of determinate sentencing laws (DSLs) on prison commitments, prison populations, and Uniform Crime Report crime rates. Ten states enacted these laws between 1976 and 1984; all abolished parole and most established presumptive sentences. The research uses a multiple time-series design that, among other benefits, controls for national trends and facilitates the use of control variables. We found that DSLs are clearly associated with prison population growth in only one state, Indiana, and with major reductions in two, Minnesota and Washington. The remaining laws show no evidence of increasing populations and may have reduced them somewhat. The estimated impacts on commitments are similarly varied. There is little or no evidence that DSLs affect crime. Earlier studies evaluating individual DSLs are often criticized for poor research designs, and our findings support the criticisms.

Criminal propensities, discrete groups of offenders, and persistence in crime*

Abstract: Criminal propensity theorists argue that the causes of variation in offending behavior can be traced to variation in one or more causal traits. Other theorists contend that there is actually more than one type of offender and that more than one causal mechanism operates to explain offending behavior. In this article, some of the implications of these two positions are considered. Then, their congruence with recidivism data from a cohort of post-age-16 North Carolina institutional releasees (N = 848) is assessed, The analysis focuses specifically on whether the correlates of offending persistence are similar across two categories of individuals: those who experienced their first adjudication at an early age and those who were first adjudicated at a later age. In support of both positions, some similarities and some differences in the correlates of persistence were discovered. The differences, however, were only evident when the threshold for late first adjudication was set to age 12. When this threshold was raised to higher ages, the differences disappeared.

Punishing political offenders: the effect of political motive on federal sentencing decisions*

Abstract: Although political motive is frequently avoided as an issue in the prosecution of terrorists, previous research indicates that these offenders consistently receive longer sentences than nonterrorists convicted of similar offenses (Smith, 1994). This study assesses the ability of three theoretical models (consensus, conflict, and structural-contextual) to explain these differences in sentencing patterns. Data on terrorists (N = 95), provided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, and the U.S. Sentencing Commission, is matched with data on a sample of similarly convicted nonterrorists from the Federal Court Cases Integrated Data Base, 1970-1991 (N = 403). Controlling for a number of demographic and sentencing-related variables, the results indicate that the official label of “terrorist” is not only a significant predictor of sentence length, but emerges as the dominant explanatory variable in the analysis. The results provide general support for both consensus and conflict hypotheses, but only partial support for structural-contextual theory. The findings also raise procedural questions regarding the extensive variation in sentencing between similarly situated defendants when political motive is used as a primary criterion for sentence enhancements.

Conservative protestantism and the perceived wrongfulness of crimes: a research note*

Abstract: This research addresses the relationship between conservative Protestantism and the perceived wrongfulness of crimes. In a recent study, Warr (1989) identified “nondiscriminators”—people who perceived a wide range of crimes to be equally morally wrong. Although lacking measures of religion, Warr hypothesized, based on their written comments, that the respondents used religious beliefs to assess wrongfulness. Since Protestant theology tends to view morality categorically, with no gradations between the extremes, those individuals who most strongly adhere to this doctrine may be the nondiscriminators. This study tests and finds strong support for this hypothesis, which has important implications for the recent shift toward increased punitiveness in sentencing, research concerning public perceptions of crime, and studies of religion.