Showing papers in "Criminology and public policy in 2005"

Increasing the effectiveness of correctional programming through the risk principle: identifying offenders for residential placement*

Abstract: Research Summary: This study analyzed data on 7,306 offenders placed in 1 of 53 community-based residential programs as part of their parole, post-release control, or probation. Offenders who successfully completed residential programming were compared with a group of offenders (n = 5801) under parole/post-release control who were not placed in residential programming. Analyses of program effectiveness were conducted, controlling for risk and a risk-by-group (treatment versus comparison) interaction term. Policy Implications: Significant and substantial differences in the effectiveness of programming were found on the basis of various risk levels. This research challenges the referral and acceptance policies and procedures of many states’ departments of corrections, local probation departments and courts, and social service agencies that provide offender services.

Policy and intervention considerations of a network analysis of street gangs

Abstract: Research Summary: This study details a network analysis of the street gang landscape in Newark, New Jersey. Using individual gang members as the unit of analysis and multiple layers of associations as the linkages within the networks, the results suggest that the gangs in Newark are loosely organized with pockets of cohesion. In addition, there is variation with regard to individual connectedness within the gangs, and certain gang members emerge as "cut-points" or the only connection among gang members or groups of gang members. Policy Implications: The results lend further credence to the notion that problem analysis should precede gang interventions. In particular, the findings suggest that particular groups of gang members may be amenable to the collective accountability tactic, whereas others may become more cohesive as a consequence. Indeed, an intervention focused on individuals may be more productive in Newark. The cut-points within gangs are particularly worthy of attention, both for their capacity to act as communication agents for a deterrence message and for their potential vulnerability to the pulling levers strategy. KEYWORDS: Juvenile justice Language: en

Did Ceasefire, Compstat, and Exile Reduce Homicide?

Abstract: Research Summary: Police officials across the United States often claimed credit for crime reductions during the 1990s. In this article, we examine homicide trends in three cities that mounted widely publicized policing interventions during the 1990s: Boston's Operation Ceasefire, New York's Compstat, and Richmond, Virginia's Project Exile. Applying growth-curve analysis to data from the 95 largest U.S. cities and controlling for conditions known to be associated with violent crime rates, we find that New York's homicide trend during the 1990s did not differ significantly from those of other large cities. We find some indication of a sharper homicide drop in Boston than elsewhere, but the small number of incidents precludes strong conclusions. By contrast, Richmond's homicide reduction was significantly greater than the decline in other large cities after the implementation of Project Exile, which is consistent with claims of an intervention effect, although the effect may have been small. Policy Implications: Criminologists gave police and other public officials something of a free ride as they claimed credit for the 1990s crime drop. We propose that researchers employ comparable data and methods to evaluate such claims-making, with the current analysis intended as a departure point for ongoing research. The use of common evaluation criteria is especially urgent for assessing the effects of the multiple interventions to reduce violent crime launched under the nation's primary domestic crime-control initiative, Project Safe Neighborhoods.

Problem-oriented policing in practice

Abstract: Research Summary: Interviews and surveys were used to measure the extent of problem-oriented policing (POP) by individual police officers in the San Diego Police Department. Officers tended to engage in small-scale problem solving with little formal analysis or assessment. Responses generally included enforcement plus one or two more collaborative or nontraditional initiatives. Policy Implications: Despite 15 years of national promotion and a concerted effort at implementation within the San Diego Police Department, POP as practiced by ordinary police officers fell far short of the ideal model. It may be unreasonable to expect every police officer to continuously engage in full-fledged POP.

Executing the innocent and support for capital punishment: implications for public policy

Abstract: Research Summary: The issue of whether innocent people have been executed is now at the center of the debate concerning the legitimacy of capital punishment. The purpose of this research was to use data collected by the Gallup Organization in 2003 to investigate whether Americans who believed that an innocent person had been executed were less likely to support capital punishment. We also explored whether the association varied by race, given that African Americans are disproportionately affected by the death penalty. Our results indicated that three-quarters of Americans believed that an innocent person had been executed for a crime they did not commit within the last five years and that this belief was associated with lower levels of support for capital punishment, especially among those who thought this sanction was applied unfairly. In addition, our analyses revealed that believing an innocent person had been executed had a stronger association with altering African American than white support for the death penalty. Policy Implications: A key claim of death penalty advocates is that a high proportion of the public supports capital punishment. In this context, scholars opposing this sanction have understood the importance of showing that the public's support for executing offenders is contingent and shallower than portrayed by typical opinion polls. The current research joins this effort by arguing that the prospect of executing innocents potentially impacts public support for the death penalty and, in the least, creates ideological space for a reconsideration of the legitimacy of capital punishment.

“it's getting crazy out there”: can a civil gang injunction change a community?†

Abstract: Research Summary: Civil gang injunctions are an increasingly popular gang suppression tactic. This article reports on the first scientific evaluation of the community impact of this strategy. San Bernardino residents in five neighborhoods were surveyed about their perceptions and experience of crime, gang activity, and neighborhood quality 18 months before and 6 months after the issuance of an injunction. Analyses indicated positive evidence of short-term effects in the disordered, primary injunction area, including less gang presence, fewer reports of gang intimidation, and less fear of confrontation with gang members, but no significant changes in intermediate or long-term outcomes except lower fear of crime. Comparison of this injunction area with a previous one suggested that improvements in neighborhood dynamics might accrue over the long term. Negative effects were observed in the secondary, less disordered injunction area. Policy Implications: This study suggests that the strategic suppression of gang member activities may translate into modest immediate improvements in community safety and well-being. Furthermore, the findings suggest that law enforcement use caution regarding the size of an injunction area and the type of gang targeted by the tactic. Coupling an injunction with efforts to improve neighborhood social organization and provide positive alternatives for gang members might substantially improve its effectiveness. KEYWORDS: Juvenile justice Language: en

Restorative justice, communities, and delinquency: whom do we reintegrate?

Abstract: Research Summary: Communities represent an important facet of restorative justice; yet few studies have empirically evaluated the influence that community characteristics have on reintegrative programs. In this study, I use official juvenile court data from an urban, metropolitan county in Arizona and Census data to examine how individual- and community-level data influence the selection of offenders to a restorative justice program. To examine the effectiveness of the restorative justice program and to determine if program impact varies by community, recidivism is modeled with individual- and community-level data. FINDINGS indicate individual and community characteristics are important predictors of restorative justice program placement. Also, juveniles who successfully completed the restorative justice program were less likely to recidivate than were juveniles in a comparison group. Recidivism results show no variation of program impact across communities. Policy Implications: Study findings demonstrate the importance of incorporating community-level data in studies of restorative justice. Restorative justice programs must be sensitive to local, community characteristics and ensure that reintegration efforts do not exclude offenders in need. The successful reintegration process experienced by juveniles who participated in the restorative justice programs is clearly reflective of program effectiveness. KEYWORDS: Juvenile justice; Language: en

Disrupting illegal firearms markets in boston: the effects of operation ceasefire on the supply of new handguns to criminals*

Abstract: Research Summary: The question of whether the illegal firearms market serving criminals and juveniles can be disrupted has been vigorously debated in policy circles and in the literature on firearms and violence. To the extent that prohibited persons, in particular, are supplied with guns through systematic gun trafficking, focused regulatory and investigative resources may be useful in disrupting the illegal supply of firearms to criminals. In Boston, a gun market disruption strategy was implemented that focused on shutting down illegal diversions of new handguns from retail sources. Multivariate regression analyses were used to estimate the effects of the intervention on new handguns recovered in crime. Our results suggest that focused enforcement efforts, guided by strategic analyses of ATF firearms trace data, can have significant impacts on the illegal supply of new handguns to criminals. Policy Implications: The problem-oriented policing approach provides an appropriate framework to uncover the complex mechanisms at play in illicit firearms markets and to develop tailor-made interventions to disrupt the illegal gun trade. Strategic enforcement programs focused on the illegal diversion of new firearms from primary markets can reduce the availability of new guns to criminals. However, the extent to which criminals substitute older guns for new guns and move from primary markets to secondary markets in response to an enforcement strategy focused on retail outlets remains unclear. Our evaluation also does not provide policy makers with any firm evidence on whether supply-side enforcement strategies have any measurable impacts on gun violence. Jurisdictions suffering from gun violence problems should implement demand-side violence prevention programs to complement their supply-side efforts. Language: en

Recidivism of public and private state prison inmates in florida

Abstract: Research Summary: A fundamental claim made in support of private prisons is that they reduce state inmate recidivism. Current knowledge on this empirical question is limited to three prior studies with problematic methodologies. To test this claim better, we use multiple measures of exposure to private prisons to define and analyze multiple treatment/comparison groups of private and public prison inmates. Multivariate survival analysis, controlling for a range of recidivism covariates wider than the prior studies included, is used to compare reoffense and reimprisonment rate differences in a large cohort of Florida prison inmates released from 1995 to 2001. No significant recidivism rate differences are found between private and public prison inmates for adult males, adult females, or youthful offender males. Policy Implications: This study finds no empirical justification for the policy argument that private prisons reduce recidivism better than public prisons. However, the research on this issue has been limited and similar research is needed to test this claim in states other than Florida. Future research on the topic should incorporate reliable measures of program attributes and participation, assess unique characteristics of private prisons that might affect recidivism, and determine whether certain inmate subgroups benefit from those distinctive attributes. In the meantime, until reliable evidence that private prison exposure reduces recidivism appears, public policy debate on the value of private prisons should focus on cost-savings or other arguments, not on recidivism-reduction claims.

Use and nonuse of victim services programs: implications from a statewide survey of crime victims*

Abstract: Research Summary: We explored the reasons for use and/or nonuse of victim services programs through a statewide survey of crime victims who did not use services, and a survey of clients of such programs in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The survey instrument included questions about victim characteristics, the crime event, whether victims used services, victims’ use of other social services, and individual coping mechanisms. Only type of crime and age were significant predictors of use of victim services programs, with older victims of violent crimes more likely to report using services than younger victims of nonviolent crimes. Policy Implications: Our findings mirror other studies that indicate very little usage of services by crime victims. Those who did not use services reported getting assistance from friends or family members, not being told about services, or not thinking it was worth the trouble to seek out such services. Also, victims demonstrated very little knowledge about the types of services provided by victim services programs. We conclude that a victim's decision not to seek assistance could be akin to the reason why so many crime victims never report their experience to the police in the first place. To increase the use of services by crime victims, a greater emphasis will need to be placed on educating the public about such services, adequately staffing programs with better trained individuals who can meet the needs of crime victims, and broadening the types of services provided to crime victims.

Better gun enforcement, less crime

Abstract: Research Summary: Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN), which for the past several years has been the major federal initiative to combat gun violence, includes several elements (such as gun locks and other efforts to reduce gun availability) that research suggests are likely to have at best modest effects on gun crime. In general, enforcement activities targeted at the “demand side” of the underground gun market currently enjoy stronger empirical support. However much of PSN's budget has been devoted to increasing the severity of punishment, such as by federaliz-ing gun cases, which seems to be less effective than targeted street-level enforcement designed to increase the probability of punishment for gun carrying or use in crime. Policy Implications: PSN and other enforcement activities could be made more effective by redirecting resources toward activities such as targeted patrols against illegal gun carrying. Given the substantial social costs of gun violence, an efficiency argument can also be made for increasing funding beyond previous levels.

Victims, punishment, and parole: the effect of victim participation on parole hearings

Abstract: Research Summary: Past research has indicated that victim participation has had little impact on sentence outcomes. In contrast, the current study examined parole hearings in Alabama to determine if, and how, victim participation is related to parole decision making. Results indicate that victim and offender participation are significantly related to parole hearing outcomes. The findings of the current study indicate that victim influence, not institutional behavior or participation in rehabilitation programs, is a highly predictive factor in the decision to grant or deny parole. The study concludes that victim participation impacts parole release decisions and identifies the relative importance of oral versus written participatory involvement and the point at which participation begins to affect decision making. The study also examines the causal relationships existing among victim participation variables, offender characteristics, and general parole predictors and parole decision making. Policy Implications: This study points out the importance of making victims aware of the impact of their presence and participation in parole hearings. The more letters of protest in an offender's file, the more persons protesting at an offender's hearing and the more likely that parole will be denied. The findings of this current study make it clear that victim participation influences the parole board's decisions at the parole release hearing. This study also raises another important issue. To what extent will parole boards allow victim influence to override the concerns for the inmate? Is it fair to further punish an inmate who presents a low risk of recidivism for future criminal behavior because victims show up at hearings to protest the release? Should victim input and participation become the most significant variable or simply one of many variables to be considered in these decisions?

Knowing when to fold 'em: an essay on evaluating the impact of ceasefire, compstat, and exile*

Abstract: Author(s): Richard A. Berk | Abstract: Professor Rosenfeld and his colleagues are to be congratulated for their courage. They have tackled a very controversial and visible set of issues addressed previously by a number of notable criminologists. They have also chosen to enter the debates with an analysis based solely on observational data. Observational data pose daunting problems when used to draw causal inferences. At a time when these problems have been thoroughly aired in the statistical literature (e.g., Freedman, 1985; 1987; 1991; Rubin, 1986; Rosenbaum, 2002; Berk, 2003) and candidly addressed by world-class econo- metricians (Manski, 1994; Heckman, 2000), the authors of this paper proceed nevertheless.One has to wonder, however, whether in this case discretion would have been the better part of valor. Some empirical problems are just too difficult because of the data likely to be available and the existing methods of analysis. Trying to tease out the impact of the crime control interventions addressed in this paper may be one example.Over the next several pages I will try to elaborate on this point. In so doing, I will touch briefly on several statistical concerns about the analyses reported, which may be useful to note, but are of secondary importance. The goal is to focus on some larger issues.Although the paper by Rosenfeld and his colleagues is lengthly and com- plicated, there are surely important details not included. Page constraints being what they are, there is always lots that goes unsaid. I am operating under the same constraints. I provide below a large number of references to help fill the gaps.

What's your problem? signal crimes and citizen‐focused problem solving*

Abstract: Gary Cordner and Elizabeth Biebel’s assessment of problem-oriented policing (POP) in San Diego sets out to evaluate just what capacity the methods that underpin POP have for transforming the delivery of policing over the longer term. For although the POP approach has received a generally positive reception among both policing practitioners and scholars, as representing an innovative and systematic response to several problems that bedevil contemporary policing organizations, the evidential supports for its efficacy are comparatively limited. Numerous individual case studies record purported successes in which POP techniques have had an impact on a problem; however, many of the evaluations have been underpinned by comparatively weak research designs (Weisburd and Eck, 2004). As a result, a question remains about whether the implementation of POP is transforming practice, or as Cordner and Biebel note: . . .responses rely primarily on enforcement, and it seems that the POP terminology and process are merely used to “dress up” or legitimize a much more traditional approach to policing.

Crime (control) is a choice: divergent perspectives on the role of treatment in the adult corrections system

Abstract: Self-archiving of the author-manuscript version is not yet supported by this journal. Please refer to the journal link for access to the definitive, published version or contact the authors for more information.

Bad behavior or bad policy? an examination of tennessee release cohorts, 1993–2001*

Abstract: Research Summary: Few studies have examined time-based variations in recidivism rates despite the substantial variation that seems to be characteristic of some states. A recent publication by the Tennessee Department of Correction indicates that reincarceration rates increased significantly for parole release cohorts from 1993 to 1997. I reexamine the Tennessee data with additional years and confirm the sharp increase in reincarceration rates, although subsequent years show a decline back to 1993 levels. Findings indicate that time-based variation in the return rate is not attributable to differences in the populations being released, nor does it seem to be associated with increases in criminal behavior as measured by new arrests or new criminal convictions. Results suggest that violations of the technical conditions of parole rather than increased criminal behavior largely account for the trend, that parole release was used as a “back-door” means of controlling and stabilizing rapidly growing prison populations, and that the use of parole in this manner was associated with increased rates of return to prison. Policy Implications: This article highlights issues with parole technical violators, release decisions, and revocation criteria, as well as their relationships with correctional systems. Large variations in parole grant rates over the study period suggest a lack of consistently applied objective risk criteria for parole release and may validate some criticisms of arbitrariness in parole release decisions. Increased grant rates do not seem to be associated with increased rates of criminal behavior, which suggests that the more conservative grant rates in recent years could be raised without increased risk to public safety. There also seem to be significant differences in violation rates by region that may indicate inconsistencies in the application of violation criteria.

Reliable information and rational policy decisions: does gun research fit the bill?*

Abstract: Cet article dresse un etat de la recherche sur la detention d'armes a feu aux Etats-Unis et sur les differentes politiques engagees en vue de leur controle. Ces politiques peuvent agir soit sur la demande, comme l'operation cessez-le-feu de Boston, agissant a la source du trafic d'armes, ou sur l'offre, comme le programme une arme par mois visant a reguler les ventes chez les detaillants legaux

Court oversight and conviction under mandatory and nonmandatory domestic violence case filing policies

Abstract: Research Summary: This study examines the relative impact of mandatory and nonmandatory DV case filing policies on court oversight and conviction for misdemeanor DV cases. The prevalence and duration of court oversight are greater under a mandatory DV filing policy, whereas conviction is more likely under a nonmandatory DV filing policy. These differences remain even after controlling for legal, case processing, and defendant characteristics. Policy Implications: This article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of mandatory and nonmandatory DV case filing policies. Filing policies are linked to the relative priorities prosecutors place on the dual goals of court oversight and conviction.

An experimental Study of the Los Angeles County Repeat Offender Prevention Program: its implementation and evaluation

Abstract: Research Summary: The Los Angeles County Repeat Offender Prevention Program (ROPP) was designed to improve school performance and prevent reoffending among the enrolled juvenile offenders through a milieu of social services. It was a 3-year pilot project established as part of a statewide juvenile correctional program funded by the California State Legislature, which commenced in 1999 and ended in 2001. A true experimental design was employed, and a total of 327 first-time juvenile probationers were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. At the end of the project, 204 subjects (106 in the treatment group and 98 in the control group) had a successful program termination. The data show that subjects in the treatment group were more likely to have better school performance than those in the control group. In the first 6-month period after program enrollment, they were also less likely to have new criminal offenses than their counterparts in the control group; however, no significant effect was found in any additional 6-month periods. Both groups were not significantly different in their probation technical violations. Policy Implications: The study results suggest that intensive supervision and coordinated team efforts in providing probation services can markedly improve juvenile offenders' school-related performances and prevent new criminal offenses at the starting period. However, such an intervention model is unlikely to produce consistent and cost-effective justice system effects in the long run. Juveniles who fit the high-risk profiles do not necessarily become chronic offenders; future correctional interventions need to focus not only on individual level factors but also on the social context that gave rise to their problem behaviors in the first place. KEYWORDS: Juvenile justice; Language: en

Prison privatization in florida: promise, premise, and performance*

Abstract: The original promise was that prison privatization would increase service quality. The premise was that the free market would introduce efficiency previously unknown in the Florida state adult correctional system. The resulting performance suggests that neither promise nor premise was correct. The research results are clear. The Bales et al. study in this issue empirically confirms that the State of Florida has not achieved reductions in recidivism levels among released offenders by contracting for privately operated prisons. The original findings that appeared to support lower recidivism rates among inmates released from privately operated prisons (Lanza-Kaduce et al., 1999) were probably based on a model with important omitted variables. Better control measures for the risk of reoffending leveled the playing field between the public and the private operators, which showed that prior results favoring the private sector were most likely an artifact. In this case, improvements in methodology by both Farabee and Knight (2002) and Bales et al. changed the entire framework of the public policy debate. Given the sometimes fractious debate about self-interest and science in the Florida privatization analysis (Geis et al., 1999; Lanza-Kaduce et al., 2000), and given the overarching political and academic imbroglio that has been the backdrop of government outsourcing (Yergin and Stanislaw, 1998), it is time to pause, catch our collective breath, and think clearly about the role of social science in informing criminal justice policy, particularly on this issue. Many of the arguments and issues I raise here are discussed in greater detail in a book I recently coauthored, Measuring Prison Performance: Government Privatization and Accountability (Gaes et al., 2004).

Purchase of multiple firearms as a risk factor for criminal gun use: implications for gun policy and enforcement

Abstract: Research Summary: The simultaneous or rapid purchase of multiple guns, which is referred to as a multiple sale, is a potential indicator of gun trafficking. This study examines the role of multiple sales in supplying criminals, using longitudinal analysis of the sale and subsequent police recovery of guns sold in Maryland during the early to mid-1990s. Guns sold in multiple sales accounted for 25% of guns later recovered and had an elevated risk of recovery outside of Maryland, particularly in neighboring Washington, D.C., where handguns are banned. Policy Implications: Federal regulations requiring gun dealers to report multiple sales are prudent, and law enforcement should emphasize these sales in gun trafficking investigations. A 1996 Maryland law restricting handgun buyers to one purchase per month may have produced modest reductions in the flow of guns to criminals in Maryland and particularly in Washington, D.C.