Showing papers in "Demography in 1979"

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

Abstract: Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.

The end of “Catholic” fertility

Abstract: Catholic and non-Catholic fertility during the post-World War II period are compared in this paper. Evidence accumulated across five sample surveys of fertility in the United States, which were conducted at five-year intervals from 1955 through 1975, forms the basis for the analysis; both cohort and period measures are employed. Starting from a situation where Catholic fertility was very little higher than that of non-Catholics, it is shown that the differential increased markedly during the baby boom and then declined to a point where the two trends nearly come together in the mid1970s. Interpretation of the recent convergence in the light of various theories that have been put forward to explain the differential suggests that it will be an enduring phenomenon.

The incidence of divorce within cohorts of american marriages contracted since the civil war

Abstract: The proportion of marriages that end in divorce can be estimated from vital registration or from census data. The former source suggests considerably higher levels of divorce than does the latter. A new series, combining the two sources, is presented for annual marriage cohorts back to 1867. Actual experience to 1970 is traced and a projection beyond that point is made for cohorts with incomplete divorce histories. The cohort divorce series moves steadily upwards and shows much less variability than an equivalent series of period divorce rates. Factors related to high divorce within a cohort are armed service mobilization and high unemployment rates in the year of marriage, and slow national economic growth between pre- and post-marital periods.

Motivations for the inmigration component of population turnaround in nonmetropolitan areas.

Abstract: Data from a 1977 survey of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan origin households migrating to 75 high net inmigration counties of the Midwest are examined to consider the motivational basis for the inmigration component of post-1970 non metropolitan migration trends. Findings suggest that the major stated motivations for leaving places of origin, especially among those from metropolitan areas, are “quality of life” considerations. About a fourth of the metropolitan origin migrants’ and half of the non metropolitan origin migrants’ reasons are job-related. Anti-urban push and pro-rural pull responses are prevalent among migrants from metropolitan areas. Subsequent analysis of reasons for leaving metropolitan residences suggests consistency with other objective variables. Among households with a working-age head, those leaving for “quality of life” reasons came disproportionately from the largest metropolitan centers and went to the smallest towns. Those moving for non-employment reasons are not more likely to have taken an initial income loss, though they are less likely to experience immediate income gains.

Social background composition and educational growth

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of intercohort changes in social background composition on changes in grade progression rates at selected schooling levels. It presents formal arguments that the relative and absolute effects of background composition on grade progression rates should decline over levels of schooling, and using data for white males born between 1907 and 1951, offers empirical support for these arguments. Whereas twentieth century increases in average educational attainment are primarily due to increases in grade progression rates at the elementary and secondary levels, future growth must occur through increases in transition rates beyond high school, given the near universality of high school graduation for cohorts born at midcentury. Our analysis shows that postsecondary progression rates are much less responsive to changes in family background composition than rates earlier in the schooling process. Despite intercohort changes in background composition that are increasingly favorable to educational attainment, future educational growth may be slower than past growth because compositional effects on average attainment will be through progression rates where the effects are weak.

Residential preferences, community satisfaction, and the intention to move.

Abstract: This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.

Determining the impact of sex preferences on fertility: A consideration of parity progression ratio, dominance, and stopping rule measures

Abstract: The two methods commonly used to assess the effect of sex preferences on fertility are inadequate to the task. Parity progression ratio analyses suffer from logical problems stemming from the heterogeneity of sex preferences and the riskiness of fertility decisions. While conjoint measurement-dominance procedures overcome these logical problems, they cannot yield quantitative estimates of the impact of sex preferences on fertility. A stopping rule measure which overcomes these limitations is proposed and described and its potential for determining the effect of sex predetermination methods on population is discussed.

The use of model life tables to estimate mortality for the United States in the late nineteenth century

Abstract: This paper seeks to extend our knowledge about mortality in the late nineteenth century United States by using census mortality data for older children and teenagers to fit model tables. The same method can also be used with partially underregistered death data. The most commonly used model tables, the Coale and Demeny West Model, apparently do not adequately depict the changing shape of mortality over the period 1850–1910. An alternative model life table system is presented, based on the Brass two parameter logit system and available reliable life tables from the period 1850–1910. The two parameter system must be reduced to a one parameter system by means of estimated relationships between the parameters so that the fitting procedure can be used. The resulting model system is, however, heavily dependent on the experience of northern, industrial states, especially Massachusetts.

Labor supply behavior of prospective and new mothers.

Abstract: Utilizing unique data generated from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Young Women, this paper examines the labor force participation of young mothers in the months immediately preceding and following the birth of the first child. Labor supply behavior at this point in the life cycle is described in greater detail than has hitherto been available. In addition, we analyze the independent effect of several factors of interest on the probability that a young woman will be in the labor force during various intervals surrounding the first birth.

A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births.

Abstract: The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.

Seasonal migration and seasonal variation in fecundability: effects on birth rates and birth intervals.

Abstract: Seasonal patterns in conception rates have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper, a mathematical model of the reproductive process is developed through which the impact of such variation in conception rates is assessed. It is found that the effect on fertility can be quite substantial, but that the birth rate when seasonal variation is occurring is approximated well by the birth rate calculated when conception rates are constant at their mean. These results indicate that further documentation of seasonality in conception rates and exploration of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research.

Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century america: another application of the coale specifications

Abstract: This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.

From natural fertility to family limitation: the onset of fertility transition in a sample of German villages.

Abstract: Utilizing data from a sample of German village genealogies, it is possible to document the changes in reproductive patterns on the family level that started to take place in Germany during the nineteenth century and formed the basis for the secular decline in fertility which eventually encompassed the entire country. One striking finding from this study was the substantial diversity among the small sample of villages in terms of the timing of the emergence of family limitation. While couples in all villages who married during the last half of the eighteenth century appeared to be characterized predominantly by natural fertility the emergence of family limitation began as early as the turn of the nineteenth century in some places and as late as the end of the nineteenth century in others. Occupational differentials with respect to family limitation were also examined. There is little evidence that changes in birth spacing played an important part in the initial phase of the fertility trnsition. Rather, the underlying process appears to involve a change from fertility patterns that were characterized by the absence of parity-dependent control to one in which attempts to terminate childbearing in response to the number of children already born becomes widespread.

Relations between demographic parameters

Abstract: The mean life-expectancy describes the average prospective life-time of an individual aged zero. This parameter can be explicitly described in terms of the survivorship distribution of the population. The Malthusian parameter r represents the asymptotic growth rate of a population. This parameter can be implicitly expressed in terms of the net-maternity distribution. The parameters and r incompletely incorporate the age-specific fertility and mortality pattern of a population; distinct populations may have the same growth rate but different net-maternity functions; distinct populations may be characterized by the same mean life expectation but may have different survivorship distributions. This article analyzes a class of parameters called the entropy of a population (Demetrius, 1974a) which distinguishes between net-maternity functions with the same growth rate and also mortality distributions with the same mean life expectation. This class of parameters measures the convexity of the fertility and mortality distributions. This paper analyzes the relations between the entropy parameter and the standard demographic parameters.

Reproductive goals and achieved fertility: A fifteen-year perspective

Abstract: A measure of underlying family size preference obtained for a sample of Detroit married women in 1962 is related to their fertility over a 15-year follow-up period. The data represent completed fertility. The I-scale preference measure used differs from the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted; it is a more fine-grained measure reflecting the respondent’s utility for children as evidenced by her entire preference order. The scales are found to be consistently predictive of fertility over the 15-year prospective period, net of a number of other variables usually associated with differential fertility. The results for the just-married sample, in which preferences and expectations are not confounded with the number of children already born, are particularly striking, with underlying preference much better than expected family size as a predictor of fertility over the entire reproductive cycle. The question of prediction for continuous and discontinuous marriages is discussed.

Employment trends of young mothers and the opportunity cost of babies in the united states

Abstract: The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost—the product of wife’s employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about $1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband’s wage rate or wife’s education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost.

The changing U.S. labor force and occupational differentiation by sex.

Abstract: The degree of occupational differentiation by sex in the U.S. labor force is examined utilizing various measures and occupational classifications over the period 1900—1970. A consideration of comparable occupations over time indicates that while occupational differentiation by sex is still substantial, an irregular, measurable decline in that differentiation has occurred during this century. Existing labor force structure seems relatively unimportant in explaining this ongoing change. Apparently more significant are social and historical factors as they have influenced specific occupations in certain decades.

Residential segregation of Spanish Americans in united states Urbanized Areas

Abstract: Residential segregation among Spanish Americans, whites and blacks is measured in the 29 largest U.S. urbanized areas. Results show that Spanish Americans are much less segregated from whites than are blacks and are less concentrated within central cities. Spanish-white segregation also tends to be much lower in suburbs than in central cities, while back-white segregation is maintained at a high level in both areas. Segregation of Spanish Americans from whites is found to decline with generations spent in the United States. Finally, the relative proportion of Spanish who live in a central city and the relative number of Spanish who are foreign stock, are both highly related, across urbanized areas, to variations in the level of Spanish-white segregation.

Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies.

Abstract: A study is made of the effects of associated causes of death, and of dependency among causes of death, by observing the relative importance of one cause of death when another is eliminated under various competing risk models. Two disease pairs, cancer and infectious disease and stroke and ischemic heart disease, are selected for analysis because they represent different types of disease dependence. Crude probabilities of death for each disease are calculated for the U.S. white male population in 1969. Next, the effects of the complementary disease in a pair are hypothetically eliminated in one of three ways: (a) a standard competing risk adjustment for cause elimination when deaths are singly caused (Chiang, 1968), (b) lethal defect-pattern of failure computations for multiply caused death when no causal order is inferred (Manton et al., 1976), and (c) relative susceptibility, computations for multiply caused deaths when causes are ordered (Wong, 1977). The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of the three types of adjustments.

The earnings of men and remarriage

Abstract: Focusing on the effects of men’s earnings, this paper analyzes remarriage. Previous empirical research has not established what theoretical aspects of men’s earnings are important. Here, data for Wisconsin high school graduates that include male respondents’ Social Security earnings history are analyzed. The results indicate that absolute earnings, earnings instability, and earnings relative to peers have minimal effects on a man’s probability of remarriage, but that permanent income positively affects remarriage. However, studies of marital disruption often find permanent income is not as important as relative earnings measures. Concluding remarks speculate about the meaning of these contrasting findings for the economics of marriage.

What is the annual net flow of undocumented mexican immigrants to the united states

Abstract: Senior government officials have claimed that in recent years an average of 1.4 million illegal aliens have entered the United States annually without apprehension. This conjectural figure does not take into account the fact that the net flow of immigrants is always less than the gross flow. In this paper, seven estimates are made concerning the net flow of undocumented Mexican immigrants to the United States in the period 1970–1975. These estimates are based on the growth of the population of Mexican origin according to the Current Population Survey. According to these estimates the annual net flow ranged from 82,300 to 232,400 persons.

A new evaluation of United States census data on the extreme aged.

Abstract: Population and mortality data for the extreme aged have generally been considered subject to a large degree of error, particularly for nonwhites. In this study, estimates of the United States population 85 years of age and over in 1960 are devised through a procedure known as the “method of extinct generations,” which permits the reconstruction of “extinct” population cohorts from a series of annual death statistics. Estimates of the total population by single year of age and of sex-color groups by five-year age groups are compared with the 1960 census. With some exceptions, the data for whites show remarkable correspondence; the tally for nonwhites developed from death records falls considerably short of the census count, indicating a greater overstatement of age in the latter source.

Fertility effect of seasonal migration and seasonal variation in fecundability: test of a useful approximation under more general conditions.

Abstract: A demographer J. Menken recently demonstrated that the asymptotic birth rate calculated by a family-building model for a population with seasonal variation in fecundability due to such causes as seasonal separation of spouses is close to the birth rate of a population in which fecundability is kept constant at the mean of the seasonally varying values. This theory was tested and proven with a set of complex fertility simulations. Results hold up well for various combinations of numbers of months of annual separation. These findings are important for demographers because it seems that seasonally varying fecundability can be allowed for without simulating this variation directly in family-building models.

Family formation and the life cycle.

Abstract: Mathematical expressions are developed for certain life cycles when only the age-specific birth and death rates are known. The probability at birth that a woman will have a specified number of children and the expected length of time spent before the first birth, between the first and the last child, and between the last child and the time of the woman's death are shown to be calculable. Expressions for the probability of at least one child outliving the mother and for the expected number of children outliving the mother are also developed and are evaluated for three selected countries with different birth and death rates to show how these life cycles depend on birth and death rates.

Some roots of preference: roles, activities and familial values.

Abstract: This paper examines some of the connecting links between modernization in a developing society, particularly urbanization and increased education for women, and preferences for number of children. Using 1973 Taiwan data, preferences for smaller families are found to be consistently related to modern attitudes and behavior in the three domains examined: intrafamilial husband-wife role relationships, extrafamilial activities of the wife, and familial and religious values relating the family to the larger institutional setting. Modernization of these attitudes, behaviors, and values has an impact on reproductive goals independent of their association with structural variables. The wife’s outside activities and exposure to modern influences through the mass media are especially important linkages, having a particularly strong mediating effect in the education effect on preferences. Intrafamilial relations appear to be of less importance. Modernization of familial and religious values mediates between urbanization and family size preferences. The measure of preference used is a scale value which has been found in other research to be more predictive of reproductive behavior than the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted. As the level of contraceptive use rises in developing societies, family size preferences increasingly become a factor in birth rates, and understanding the sources of change in these preferences takes on added importance. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas

Abstract: Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan “turnaround” represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas.

The progress of demography as a scientific discipline.

Abstract: The discipline of demography deals with the size composition distribution and characteristics of populations and how the factors interact and change. Demography also includes the internal and external dynamics of population. Data collection is hampered because censuses are infrequent so records of births marriages and deaths are crucial for interim statistics especially in developing nations. Demographers interest is in population variables and their theroetical importance to societal phenomena; in general to understand and explain population phenomena. Demography needs to develop more integrated theory to fuse diverse findings and needs to facilitate organizational context. Governments are forming special population commissions and universities are increasing research activity which aid the demographers progress for a more professional discipline.

Sex differences in patterns of career mobility

Abstract: Using the 1970 Census data, this paper examines differences by sex in patterns of intragenerational occupational mobility over a five year period (1965-1970) for two cohorts of white, US men and women The observed mobility patterns are separated into that part due to structural factors (ie, the different distributions over occupational origins and destinations by sex) and that due to sex-related individual and group characteristics Most of the observed differences in mobility patterns are found to be the result of occupational sex segregation

Fertility and income, consumption aspirations, and child quality standards

Abstract: Data from a 1975 national survey of the American population were used to investigate the relationships between childbearing and aspirations for consumption goods, child quality standards, and income. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that preferences for child quality are negatively related to fertility. Aspirations for consumer goods which are related to the home were not found to be negatively related to childbearing while aspirations for nonhome goods were negatively related to fertility as hypothesized. Several indicators of income and subjective economic well-being were examined, and the overall pattern of results was not supportive of the hypothesized effect of income on fertility.

Models of illegitimacy: united states, 1969

Abstract: Three theoretical perspectives on illegitimacy, the anomic, the subgroup, and the demographic, are reviewed and compared. A composite causal model is then developed and estimated using areal data derived from the 1970 U.S. Census. While theoretical nonspecificity disallowed a definitive test, all three perspectives yielded valuable insight into the complex mechanisms underlying illegitimacy rates. Results indicate that variation in illegitimacy rates is systematically related to variation in social structure and that integration of the three positions should prove useful to further research.