Showing papers in "Ecological Applications in 2010"

Global assessment of nitrogen deposition effects on terrestrial plant diversity: a synthesis.

Abstract: Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a recognized threat to plant diversity in temperate and northern parts of Europe and North America. This paper assesses evidence from field experiments for N deposition effects and thresholds for terrestrial plant diversity protection across a latitudinal range of main categories of ecosystems, from arctic and boreal systems to tropical forests. Current thinking on the mechanisms of N deposition effects on plant diversity, the global distribution of G200 ecoregions, and current and future (2030) estimates of atmospheric N-deposition rates are then used to identify the risks to plant diversity in all major ecosystem types now and in the future. This synthesis paper clearly shows that N accumulation is the main driver of changes to species composition across the whole range of different ecosystem types by driving the competitive interactions that lead to composition change and/or making conditions unfavorable for some species. Other effects such as direct toxicity of nitrogen gases and aerosols, long-term negative effects of increased ammonium and ammonia availability, soil-mediated effects of acidification, and secondary stress and disturbance are more ecosystem- and site-specific and often play a supporting role. N deposition effects in mediterranean ecosystems have now been identified, leading to a first estimate of an effect threshold. Importantly, ecosystems thought of as not N limited, such as tropical and subtropical systems, may be more vulnerable in the regeneration phase, in situations where heterogeneity in N availability is reduced by atmospheric N deposition, on sandy soils, or in montane areas. Critical loads are effect thresholds for N deposition, and the critical load concept has helped European governments make progress toward reducing N loads on sensitive ecosystems. More needs to be done in Europe and North America, especially for the more sensitive ecosystem types, including several ecosystems of high conservation importance. The results of this assessment show that the vulnerable regions outside Europe and North America which have not received enough attention are ecoregions in eastern and southern Asia (China, India), an important part of the mediterranean ecoregion (California, southern Europe), and in the coming decades several subtropical and tropical parts of Latin America and Africa. Reductions in plant diversity by increased atmospheric N deposition may be more widespread than first thought, and more targeted studies are required in low background areas, especially in the G200 ecoregions.

Terrestrial phosphorus limitation: mechanisms, implications, and nitrogen–phosphorus interactions

Abstract: Nutrient limitation to primary productivity and other biological processes is widespread in terrestrial ecosystems, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the most common limiting elements, both individually and in combination. Mechanisms that drive P limitation, and their interactions with the N cycle, have received less attention than mechanisms causing N limitation. We identify and discuss six mechanisms that could drive P limitation in terrestrial ecosystems. The best known of these is depletion-driven limitation, in which accumulated P losses during long-term soil and ecosystem development contribute to what Walker and Syers termed a "terminal steady state" of profound P depletion and limitation. The other mechanisms are soil barriers that prevent access to P; transactional limitation, in which weathering of P-containing minerals does not keep pace with the supply of other resources; low-P parent materials; P sinks; and anthropogenic changes that increase the supply of other resources (often N) relative to P. We distinguish proximate nutrient limitation (which occurs where additions of a nutrient stimulate biological processes, especially productivity) from ultimate nutrient limitation (where additions of a nutrient can transform ecosystems). Of the mechanisms that drive P limitation, we suggest that depletion, soil barriers, and low-P parent material often cause ultimate limitation because they control the ecosystem mass balance of P. Similarly, demand-independent losses and constraints to N fixation can control the ecosystem-level mass balance of N and cause it to be an ultimate limiting nutrient.

Contrasting changes in taxonomic vs. functional diversity of tropical fish communities after habitat degradation.

Abstract: Human activities have strong impacts on ecosystem functioning through their effect on abiotic factors and on biodiversity. There is also growing evidence that species functional traits link changes in species composition and shifts in ecosystem processes. Hence, it appears to be of utmost importance to quantify modifications in the functional structure of species communities after human disturbance in addition to changes in taxonomic structure. Despite this fact, there is still little consensus on the actual impacts of human-mediated habitat alteration on the components of biodiversity, which include species functional traits. Therefore, we studied changes in taxonomic diversity (richness and evenness), in functional diversity, and in functional specialization of estuarine fish communities facing drastic environmental and habitat alterations. The Terminos Lagoon (Gulf of Mexico) is a tropical estuary of primary concern for its biodiversity, its habitats, and its resource supply, which have been severely impacted by human activities. Fish communities were sampled in four zones of the Terminos Lagoon 18 years apart (1980 and 1998). Two functions performed by fish (food acquisition and locomotion) were studied through the measurement of 16 functional traits. Functional diversity of fish communities was quantified using three independent components: richness, evenness, and divergence. Additionally, we measured the degree of functional specialization in fish communities. We used a null model to compare the functional and the taxonomic structure of fish communities between 1980 and 1998. Among the four largest zones studied, three did not show strong functional changes. In the northern part of the lagoon, we found an increase in fish richness but a significant decrease of functional divergence and functional specialization. We explain this result by a decline of specialized species (i.e., those with particular combinations of traits), while newly occurring species are redundant with those already present. The species that decreased in abundance have functional traits linked to seagrass habitats that regressed consecutively to increasing eutrophication. The paradox found in our study highlights the need for a multifaceted approach in the assessment of biodiversity changes in communities under pressure.

Water quality as a regional driver of coral biodiversity and macroalgae on the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract: Degradation of inshore coral reefs due to poor water quality is a major issue, yet it has proved difficult to demonstrate this linkage at other than local scales. This study modeled the relationships between large-scale data on water clarity and chlorophyll and four measures of reef status along the whole Great Barrier Reef, Australia (GBR; 12–24° S). Four biotic groups with different trophic requirements, namely, the cover of macroalgae and the taxonomic richness of hard corals and phototrophic and heterotrophic octocorals, were predicted from water quality and spatial location. Water clarity and chlorophyll showed strong spatial patterns, with water clarity increasing more than threefold from inshore to offshore waters and chlorophyll decreasing approximately twofold from inshore to offshore and approximately twofold from south to north. Richness of hard corals and phototrophic octocorals declined with increasing turbidity and chlorophyll, whereas macroalgae and the richness of heterotrophic octocorals ...

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Abstract: Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions, but downscaling is difficult in complex terrains given diverse microclimates and mediation of stream heat budgets by local conditions. We compiled a stream temperature database (n = 780) for a 2500-km river network in central Idaho to assess possible trends in summer temperatures and thermal habitat for two native salmonid species from 1993 to 2006. New spatial statistical models that account for network topology were parameterized with these data and explained 93% and 86% of the variation in mean stream temperatures and maximas, respectively. During our study period, basin average mean stream temperatures increased by 0.38°C (0.27°C/decade), and maximas increased by 0.48°C (0.34°C/decade), primarily due to long-term (30–50 year) trends in air temperatures and stream flows. Radiation increases from wildfires accounted for 9% of basin-scale temperature increases, despite burning 14% of the basin. Within wildfire perimeters, however, stream temperature increases were 2–3 times greater than basin averages, and radiation gains accounted for 50% of warming. Thermal habitat for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was minimally affected by temperature increases, except for small shifts towards higher elevations. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), in contrast, were estimated to have lost 11–20% (8–16%/decade) of the headwater stream lengths that were cold enough for spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses occurring in the coldest habitats. Our results suggest that a warming climate has begun to affect thermal conditions in streams and that impacts to biota will be specific to both species and context. Where species are at risk, conservation actions should be guided based on considerations of restoration opportunity and future climatic effects. To refine predictions based on thermal effects, more work is needed to understand mechanisms associated with biological responses, climate effects on other habitat features, and habitat configurations that confer population resilience.

Conserving migratory land birds in the new world: do we know enough?

Abstract: Migratory bird needs must be met during four phases of the year: breeding season, fall migration, wintering, and spring migration; thus, management may be needed during all four phases. The bulk of research and management has focused on the breeding season, although several issues remain unsettled, including the spatial extent of habitat influences on fitness and the importance of habitat on the breeding grounds used after breeding. Although detailed investigations have shed light on the ecology and population dynamics of a few avian species, knowledge is sketchy for most species. Replication of comprehensive studies is needed for multiple species across a range of areas, Information deficiencies are even greater during the wintering season, when birds require sites that provide security and food resources needed for survival and developing nutrient reserves for spring migration and, possibly, reproduction. Research is needed on many species simply to identify geographic distributions, wintering sites, habitat use, and basic ecology. Studies are complicated, however, by the mobility of birds and by sexual segregation during winter. Stable-isotope methodology has offered an opportunity to identify linkages between breeding and wintering sites, which facilitates understanding the complete annual cycle of birds. The twice-annual migrations are the poorest-understood events in a bird's life. Migration has always been a risky undertaking, with such anthropogenic features as tall buildings, towers, and wind generators adding to the risk. Species such as woodland specialists migrating through eastern North America have numerous options for pausing during migration to replenish nutrients, but some species depend on limited stopover locations. Research needs for migration include identifying pathways and timetables of migration, quality and distribution of habitats, threats posed by towers and other tall structures, and any bottlenecks for migration. Issues such as human population growth, acid deposition, climate change, and exotic diseases are global concerns with uncertain consequences to migratory birds and even less-certain remedies. Despite enormous gaps in our understanding of these birds, research, much of it occurring in the past 30 years, has provided sufficient information to make intelligent conservation efforts but needs to expand to handle future challenges.

Integrating environmental and genetic effects to predict responses of tree populations to climate.

Abstract: Climate is a major environmental factor affecting the phenotype of trees and is also a critical agent of natural selection that has molded among-population genetic variation. Population response functions describe the environmental effect of planting site climates on the performance of a single population, whereas transfer functions describe among-population genetic variation molded by natural selection for climate. Although these approaches are widely used to predict the responses of trees to climate change, both have limitations. We present a novel approach that integrates both genetic and environmental effects into a single "universal response function" (URF) to better predict the influence of climate on phenotypes. Using a large lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) field transplant experiment composed of 140 populations planted on 62 sites to demonstrate the methodology, we show that the URF makes full use of data from provenance trials to: (1) improve predictions of climate change impacts on phenotypes; (2) reduce the size and cost of future provenance trials without compromising predictive power; (3) more fully exploit existing, less comprehensive provenance tests; (4) quantify and compare environmental and genetic effects of climate on population performance; and (5) predict the performance of any population growing in any climate. Finally, we discuss how the last attribute allows the URF to be used as a mechanistic model to predict population and species ranges for the future and to guide assisted migration of seed for reforestation, restoration, or afforestation and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

Marine reserves: fish life history and ecological traits matter.

Abstract: Marine reserves are assumed to protect a wide range of species from deleterious effects stemming from exploitation. However, some species, due to their ecological characteristics, may not respond positively to protection. Very little is known about the effects of life history and ecological traits (e.g., mobility, growth, and habitat) on responses of fish species to marine reserves. Using 40 data sets from 12 European marine reserves, we show that there is significant variation in the response of different species of fish to protection and that this heterogeneity can be explained, in part, by differences in their traits. Densities of targeted size-classes of commercial species were greater in protected than unprotected areas. This effect of protection increased as the maximum body size of the targeted species increased, and it was greater for species that were not obligate schoolers. However, contrary to previous theoretical findings, even mobile species with wide home ranges benefited from protection: the effect of protection was at least as strong for mobile species as it was for sedentary ones. Noncommercial bycatch and unexploited species rarely responded to protection, and when they did (in the case of unexploited bentho-pelagic species), they exhibited the opposite response: their densities were lower inside reserves. The use of marine reserves for marine conservation and fisheries management implies that they should ensure protection for a wide range of species with different life-history and ecological traits. Our results suggest this is not the case, and instead that effects vary with economic value, body size, habitat, depth range, and schooling behavior.

Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

Abstract: Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long-term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long-term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

Linking environmental nutrient enrichment and disease emergence in humans and wildlife

Abstract: Worldwide increases in human and wildlife diseases have challenged ecologists to understand how large-scale environmental changes affect host-parasite interactions. One of the most profound changes to Earth's ecosystems is the alteration of global nutrient cycles, including those of phosphorus (P) and especially nitrogen (N). Along with the obvious direct benefits of nutrient application for food production, anthropogenic inputs of N and P can indirectly affect the abundance of infectious and noninfectious pathogens. The mechanisms underpinning observed correlations, however, and how such patterns vary with disease type, have long remained conjectural. Here, we highlight recent experimental advances to critically evaluate the relationship between environmental nutrient enrichment and disease. Given the interrelated nature of human and wildlife disease emergence, we include a broad range of human and wildlife examples from terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems. We examine the consequences of nutrient pollution on directly transmitted, vector-borne, complex life cycle, and noninfectious pathogens, including West Nile virus, malaria, harmful algal blooms, coral reef diseases, and amphibian malformations. Our synthetic examination suggests that the effects of environmental nutrient enrichment on disease are complex and multifaceted, varying with the type of pathogen, host species and condition, attributes of the ecosystem, and the degree of enrichment; some pathogens increase in abundance whereas others decline or disappear. Nevertheless, available evidence indicates that ecological changes associated with nutrient enrichment often exacerbate infection and disease caused by generalist parasites with direct or simple life cycles. Observed mechanisms include changes in host/vector density, host distribution, infection resistance, pathogen virulence or toxicity, and the direct supplementation of pathogens. Collectively, these pathogens may be particularly dangerous because they can continue to cause mortality even as their hosts decline, potentially leading to sustained epidemics or chronic pathology. We suggest that interactions between nutrient enrichment and disease will become increasingly important in tropical and subtropical regions, where forecasted increases in nutrient application will occur in an environment rich with infectious pathogens. We emphasize the importance of careful disease management in conjunction with continued intensification of global nutrient cycles.

Two-species occupancy models: a new parameterization applied to co-occurrence of secretive rails.

Abstract: Two-species occupancy models that account for false absences provide a robust method for testing for evidence of competitive exclusion, but previous model parameterizations were inadequate for incorporating covariates. We present a new parameterization that is stable when covariates are included: the conditional two-species occupancy model, which can be used to examine alternative hypotheses for species' distribution patterns. This new model estimates the probability of occupancy for a subordinate species conditional upon the presence of a dominant species. It can also be used to test if the detection of either species differs when one or both species are present, and if detection of the subordinate species depends on the detection of the dominant species when both are present. We apply the model to test if the presence of the larger Virginia Rail (Rallus limicola) affects probabilities of detection or occupancy of the smaller California Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus) in small freshwater marshes that range in size from 0.013 to 13.99 ha. We hypothesized that Black Rail occupancy should be lower in small marshes when Virginia Rails are present than when they are absent, because resources are presumably more limited and interference competition should increase. We found that Black Rail detection probability was unaffected by the detection of Virginia Rails, while, surprisingly, Black and Virginia Rail occupancy were positively associated even in small marshes. The average probability of Black Rail occupancy was higher when Virginia Rails were present (0.74 +/- 0.053, mean +/- SE) than when they were absent (0.36 +/- 0.069), and for both species occupancy increased with marsh size. Our results contrast with recent findings from patchy forest systems, where small birds were presumed to be excluded from small habitat patches by larger competitors.

Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Abstract: Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.

Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data

Abstract: The distributions of animal populations change and evolve through time. Migratory species exploit different habitats at different times of the year. Biotic and abiotic features that determine where a species lives vary due to natural and anthropogenic factors. This spatiotemporal variation needs to be accounted for in any modeling of species' distributions. In this paper we introduce a semiparametric model that provides a flexible framework for analyzing dynamic patterns of species occurrence and abundance from broad- scale survey data. The spatiotemporal exploratory model (STEM) adds essential spatiotem- poral structure to existing techniques for developing species distribution models through a simple parametric structure without requiring a detailed understanding of the underlying dynamic processes. STEMs use a multi-scale strategy to differentiate between local and global- scale spatiotemporal structure. A user-specified species distribution model accounts for spatial and temporal patterning at the local level. These local patterns are then allowed to ''scale up'' via ensemble averaging to larger scales. This makes STEMs especially well suited for exploring distributional dynamics arising from a variety of processes. Using data from eBird, an online citizen science bird-monitoring project, we demonstrate that monthly changes in distribution of a migratory species, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), can be more accurately described with a STEM than a conventional bagged decision tree model in which spatiotemporal structure has not been imposed. We also demonstrate that there is no loss of model predictive power when a STEM is used to describe a spatiotemporal distribution with very little spatiotemporal variation; the distribution of a nonmigratory species, the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis).

Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change.

Abstract: Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2 degrees x 2 degrees or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, for 24 climate models and the A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions.

Fire regimes, forest change, and self-organization in an old-growth mixed-conifer forest, Yosemite National Park, USA

Abstract: Fire is recognized as a keystone process in dry mixed-conifer forests that have been altered by decades of fire suppression. Restoration of fire disturbance to these forests is a guiding principle of resource management in the U.S. National Park Service. Policy implementation is often hindered by a poor understanding of forest conditions before fire exclusion, the characteristics of forest changes since excluding fire, and the influence of topographic or self-organizing controls on forest structure. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest structure are reconstructed in a 2125-ha mixed-conifer forest. Forests were multi-aged, burned frequently at low severity and fire return interval, and forest structure did not vary with slope aspect, elevation, or slope position. Fire exclusion has caused an increase in forest density and basal area and a compositional shift to shade-tolerant and fire-intolerant species. The median point fire-return interval and extent of a fire was 10 yr and 115 ha, respectively. The pre-Euro-American settlement fire rotation of 13 yr increased to 378 yr after 1905. The position of fire scars within tree rings indicates that 79% of fires burned in the midsummer to fall period. The spatial pattern of burns exhibited self-organizing behavior. Area burned was 10-fold greater when an area had not been burned by the previous fire. Fires were frequent and widespread, but patches of similar aged trees were <0.2 ha, suggesting small fire-caused canopy openings. Managers need to apply multiple burns at short intervals for a sustained period to reduce surface fuels and create small canopy openings characteristic of the reference forest. By coupling explicit reference conditions with consideration of current conditions and projected climate change, management activities can balance restoration and risk management.

Floral and nesting resources, habitat structure, and fire influence bee distribution across an open‐forest gradient

Abstract: Given bees' central effect on vegetation communities, it is important to understand how and why bee distributions vary across ecological gradients. We examined how plant community composition, plant diversity, nesting suitability, canopy cover, land use, and fire history affected bee distribution across an open-forest gradient in northwest Indiana, USA, a gradient similar to the historic Midwest United States landscape mosaic. When considered with the other predictors, plant community composition was not a significant predictor of bee community composition. Bee abundance was negatively related to canopy cover and positively to recent fire frequency, bee richness was positively related to plant richness and abundance of potential nesting resources, and bee community composition was significantly related to plant richness, soil characteristics potentially related to nesting suitability, and canopy cover. Thus, bee abundance was predicted by a different set of environmental characteristics than was bee species richness, and bee community composition was predicted, in large part, by a combination of the significant predictors of bee abundance and richness. Differences in bee community composition along the woody vegetation gradient were correlated with relative abundance of oligolectic, or diet specialist, bees. Because oligoleges were rarer than diet generalists and were associated with open habitats, their populations may be especially affected by degradation of open habitats. More habitat-specialist bees were documented for open and forest/scrub habitats than for savanna/woodland habitats, consistent with bees responding to habitats of intermediate woody vegetation density, such as savannas, as ecotones rather than as distinct habitat types. Similarity of bee community composition, similarity of bee abundance, and similarity of bee richness between sites were not significantly related to proximity of sites to each other. Nestedness analysis indicated that species composition in species-poor sites was not merely a subset of species composition at richer sites. The lack of significant proximity or nestedness effects suggests that factors at a small spatial scale strongly influence bees' use of sites. The findings indicate that patterns of plant diversity, nesting resource availability, recent fire, and habitat shading, present at the scale of a few hundred meters, are key determinants of bee community patterns in the mosaic open-savanna-forest landscape.

Shifting dominance of riparian Populus and Tamarix along gradients of flow alteration in western North American rivers.

Abstract: Tamarix ramosissima is a naturalized, nonnative plant species which has become widespread along riparian corridors throughout the western United States. We test the hypothesis that the distribution and success of Tamarix result from human modification of river-flow regimes. We conducted a natural experiment in eight ecoregions in arid and semiarid portions of the western United States, measuring Tamarix and native Populus recruitment and abundance at 64 sites along 13 perennial rivers spanning a range of altered flow regimes. We quantified biologically relevant attributes of flow alteration as an integrated measure (the index of flow modification, IFM), which was then used to explain between-site variation in abundance and recruitment of native and nonnative riparian plant species. We found the likelihood of successful recruitment of Tamarix to be highest along unregulated river reaches and to remain high across a gradient of regulated flows. Recruitment probability for Populus, in contrast, was highest under free-flowing conditions and declined abruptly under even slight flow modification (IFM > 0.1). Adult Tamarix was most abundant at intermediate levels of IFM. Populus abundance declined sharply with modest flow regulation (IFM > 0.2) and was not present at the most flow-regulated sites. Dominance of Tamarix was highest along rivers with the most altered flow regimes. At the 16 least regulated sites, Tamarix and Populus were equally abundant. Given observed patterns of Tamarix recruitment and abundance, we infer that Tamarix would likely have naturalized, spread, and established widely in riparian communities in the absence of dam construction, diversions, and flow regulation in western North America. However, Tamarix dominance over native species would likely be less extensive in the absence of human alteration of river-flow regimes. Restoration that combines active mechanical removal of established stands of Tamarix with a program of flow releases conducive to native species establishment and persistence is hypothesized to facilitate the codominance of Populus in reaches where it has become rare. Our findings have implications for planning flow-related stream restoration, for developing realistic expectations for yield on investment in prescribed flow releases, and for planning flow-related interventions that might be possible if control and management of invasive plant species along rivers is a goal.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Abstract: Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

Housing is positively associated with invasive exotic plant species richness in New England, USA

Abstract: Understanding the factors related to invasive exotic species distributions at broad spatial scales has important theoretical and management implications, because biological invasions are detrimental to many ecosystem functions and processes. Housing development facilitates invasions by disturbing land cover, introducing nonnative landscaping plants, and facilitating dispersal of propagules along roads. To evaluate relationships between housing and the distribution of invasive exotic plants, we asked (1) how strongly is housing associated with the spatial distribution of invasive exotic plants compared to other anthropogenic and environmental factors; (2) what type of housing pattern is related to the richness of invasive exotic plants; and (3) do invasive plants represent ecological traits associated with specific housing patterns? Using two types of regression analysis (best subset analysis and hierarchical partitioning analysis), we found that invasive exotic plant richness was equally or more strongly related to housing variables than to other human (e.g., mean income and roads) and environmental (e.g., topography and forest cover) variables at the county level across New England. Richness of invasive exotic plants was positively related to area of wildland-urban interface (WUI), low-density residential areas, change in number of housing units between 1940 and 2000, mean income, plant productivity (NDVI), and altitudinal range and rainfall; it was negatively related to forest area and connectivity. Plant life history traits were not strongly related to housing patterns. We expect the number of invasive exotic plants to increase as a result of future housing growth and suggest that housing development be considered a primary factor in plans to manage and monitor invasive exotic plant species.

Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate–population model

Abstract: Marine fisheries management strives to maintain sustainable populations while allowing exploitation. However, well-intentioned management plans may not meet this balance as most do not include the effect of climate change. Ocean temperatures are expected to increase through the 21st century, which will have far-reaching and complex impacts on marine fisheries. To begin to quantify these impacts for one coastal fishery along the east coast of the United States, we develop a coupled climate–population model for Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus). The model is based on a mechanistic hypothesis: recruitment is determined by temperature-driven, overwinter mortality of juveniles in their estuarine habitats. Temperature forecasts were obtained from 14 general circulation models simulating three CO2 emission scenarios. An ensemble-based approach was used in which a multimodel average was calculated for a given CO2 emission scenario to forecast the response of the population. The coupled model indicates th...

Habitat degradation and fishing effects on the size structure of coral reef fish communities

Abstract: Overfishing and habitat degradation through climate change pose the greatest threats to sustainability of marine resources on coral reefs. We examined how changes in fishing pressure and benthic habitat composition influenced the size spectra of island-scale reef fish communities in Lau, Fiji. Between 2000 and 2006 fishing pressure declined in the Lau Islands due to declining human populations and reduced demand for fresh fish. At the same time, coral cover declined and fine-scale architectural complexity eroded due to coral bleaching and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish, Acanthaster planci. We examined the size distribution of reef fish communities using size spectra analysis, the linearized relationship between abundance and body size class. Spatial variation in fishing pressure accounted for 31% of the variation in the slope of the size spectra in 2000, higher fishing pressure being associated with a steeper slope, which is indicative of fewer large-bodied fish and/or more small-bodied fish. Conversely, in 2006 spatial variation in habitat explained 53% of the variation in the size spectra slopes, and the relationship with fishing pressure was much weaker (;12% of variation) than in 2000. Reduced cover of corals and lower structural complexity was associated with less steep size spectra slopes, primarily due to reduced abundance of fish ,20 cm. Habitat degradation will compound effects of fishing on coral reefs as increased fishing reduces large-bodied target species, while habitat loss results in fewer small-bodied juveniles and prey that replenish stocks and provide dietary resources for predatory target species. Effective management of reef resources therefore depends on both reducing fishing pressure and maintaining processes that encourage rapid recovery of coral habitat.

Understanding long‐term primate community dynamics: implications of forest change

Abstract: Understanding the causes of population declines often involves comprehending a complex set of interactions linking environmental and biotic changes, which in combination overwhelm a population's ability to persist. To understand these relationships, especially for long-lived large mammals, long-term data are required, but rarely available. Here we use 26–36 years of population and habitat data to determine the potential causes of group density changes for five species of primates in Kibale National Park, Uganda, in areas that were disturbed to varying intensities in the late 1960s. We calculated group density from line transect data and quantified changes in habitat structure (cumulative diameter at breast height [dbh] and food availability [cumulative dbh of food trees]) for each primate species, and for one species, we evaluated change in food nutritional quality. We found that mangabeys and black-and-white colobus group density increased, blue monkeys declined, and redtails and red colobus were stable ...

Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change

Abstract: Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.

Seed rain under tree islands planted to restore degraded lands in a tropical agricultural landscape.

Abstract: Planting native tree seedlings is the predominant restoration strategy for accelerating forest succession on degraded lands. Planting tree ''islands'' is less costly and labor intensive than establishing larger plantations and simulates the nucleation process of succession. Assessing the role of island size in attracting seed dispersers, the potential of islands to expand through enhanced seed deposition, and the effect of planting arrangements on seed dispersal by birds and bats informs restoration design. Determining the relative importance of local restoration approach vs. landscape-level factors (amount of surrounding forest cover) helps prioritize methods and locations for restoration. We tested how three restoration approaches affect the arrival of forest seeds at 11 experimental sites spread across a gradient of surrounding forest cover in a 100-km 2 area of southern Costa Rica. Each site had three 50 3 50 m treatments: (1) control (natural regeneration), (2) island (planting tree seedlings in patches of three sizes: 16 m 2 ,6 4 m 2 , and 144 m 2 ), and (3) plantation (planting entire area). Four tree species were used in planting (Terminalia amazonia, Vochysia guatemalensis, Erythrina poeppigiana, and Inga edulis). Seed rain was measured for 18 months beginning ;2 years after planting. Plantations received the most zoochorous tree seeds (266.1 6 64.5 seedsm � 2 � yr � 1 (mean 6 SE)), islands were intermediate (210.4 6 52.7 seedsm � 2 � yr � 1 ), and controls were lowest (87.1 6 13.9 seedsm � 2 � yr � 1 ). Greater tree seed deposition in the plantations was due to birds (0.51 6 0.18 seedsm � 2 � d � 1 ), not bats (0.07 6 0.03 seedsm � 2 � d � 1 ). Seed rain was primarily small- seeded, early-successional species. Large and medium islands received twice as many zoochorous tree seeds as small islands and areas away from island edges, suggesting there is a minimum island size necessary to increase seed deposition and that seed rain outside of planted areas is strongly reduced. Planting design was more important for seed deposition than amount of forest cover within the surrounding 100- and 500-m radius areas. Establishing plantations and large islands facilitates the arrival of early-successional tree seeds and represents a broadly applicable strategy for increasing seed rain on abandoned agricultural lands. However, more intensive restoration approaches may be necessary for establishment of dispersal-limited species.

Carbon and water fluxes from ponderosa pine forests disturbed by wildfire and thinning

Abstract: Disturbances alter ecosystem carbon dynamics, often by reducing carbon uptake and stocks. We compared the impact of two types of disturbances that represent the most likely future conditions of currently dense ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States: (1) high-intensity fire and (2) thinning, designed to reduce fire intensity. High-severity fire had a larger impact on ecosystem carbon uptake and storage than thinning. Total ecosystem carbon was 42% lower at the intensely burned site, 10 years after burning, than at the undisturbed site. Eddy covariance measurements over two years showed that the burned site was a net annual source of carbon to the atmosphere whereas the undisturbed site was a sink. Net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and water use efficiency were lower at the burned site than at the undisturbed site. In contrast, thinning decreased total ecosystem carbon by 18%, and changed the site from a carbon sink to a source in the first posttreatment year. Thinning also decreased ET, reduced the limitation of drought on carbon uptake during summer, and did not change water use efficiency. Both disturbances reduced ecosystem carbon uptake by decreasing gross primary production (55% by burning, 30% by thinning) more than total ecosystem respiration (TER; 33-47% by burning, 18% by thinning), and increased the contribution of soil carbon dioxide efflux to TER. The relationship between TER and temperature was not affected by either disturbance. Efforts to accurately estimate regional carbon budgets should consider impacts on carbon dynamics of both large disturbances, such as high-intensity fire, and the partial disturbance of thinning that is often used to prevent intense burning. Our results show that thinned forests of ponderosa pine in the southwestern United States are a desirable alternative to intensively burned forests to maintain carbon stocks and primary production.

Quantifying fire severity, carbon, and nitrogen emissions in Alaska's boreal forest

Abstract: The boreal region stores a large proportion of the world's terrestrial carbon (C) and is subject to high-intensity, stand-replacing wildfires that release C and nitrogen (N) stored in biomass and soils through combustion. While severity and extent of fires drives overall emissions, methods for accurately estimating fire severity are poorly tested in this unique region where organic soil combustion is responsible for a large proportion of total emissions. We tested a method using adventitious roots on black spruce trees (Picea mariana) in combination with canopy allometry to reconstruct prefire organic soil layers and canopy biomass in boreal black spruce forests of Alaska (USA), thus providing a basis for more accurately quantifying fire severity levels. We calibrated this adventitious-root-height method in unburned spruce stands and then tested it by comparing our biomass and soils estimates reconstructed in burned stands with actual prefire stand measurements. We applied this approach to 38 black spruce stands burned in 2004 in Alaska, where we measured organic soil and stand characteristics and estimated the amount of soil and canopy biomass, as well as C and N pools, consumed by fire. These high-intensity quantitative estimates of severity were significantly correlated to a semiquantitative visual rapid assessment tool, the composite burn index (CBI). This index has proved useful for assessing fire severity in forests in the western United States but has not yet been widely tested in the boreal forest. From our study, we conclude that using postfire measurements of adventitious roots on black spruce trees in combination with soils and tree data can be used to reconstruct prefire organic soil depths and biomass pools, providing accurate estimates of fire severity and emissions. Furthermore, using our quantitative reconstruction we show that CBI is a reasonably good predictor of biomass and soil C loss at these sites, and it shows promise for rapidly estimating fire severity across a wide range of boreal black spruce forest types, especially where the use of high-intensity measurements may be limited by cost and time.

Constructing confidence: rational skepticism and systematic enquiry in local ecological knowledge research

Abstract: Key attributes of the social research contributions on indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK), local ecological knowledge (LEK), and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) are analyzed using the most frequently cited literature generated by the “ISI Web of Knowledge” and “Google Scholar” search engines. They are further exemplified by an examination of two contrasting approaches to the analysis of IEK/LEK/TEK. The results show that IEK/LEK/TEK is treated predominantly via definitions, and few articles examine concepts, research design, methods, or operational attributes. Consequently, there is no consensus on the content of IEK/LEK/TEK, the primary components of which await examination via focused research. These are fundamental issues, since IEK/LEK/TEK misrepresented by social research would probably deepen disempowerment of those it purports to champion. Research topics are suggested to address these issues.

Effects of fire on woody vegetation structure in African savanna

Abstract: Despite the importance of fire in shaping savannas, it remains poorly understood how the frequency, seasonality, and intensity of fire interact to influence woody vegetation structure, which is a key determinant of savanna biodiversity. We provide a comprehensive analysis of vertical and horizontal woody vegetation structure across one of the oldest savanna fire experiments, using new airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology. We developed and compared high-resolution woody vegetation height surfaces for a series of large experimental burn plots in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. These 7-ha plots (total area ~ 1500 ha) have been subjected to fire in different seasons and at different frequencies, as well as no-burn areas, for 54 years. Long-term exposure to fire caused a reduction in woody vegetation up to the 5.0-7.5 m height class, although most reduction was observed up to 4 m. Average fire intensity was positively correlated with changes in woody vegetation structure. More frequent fires reduced woody vegetation cover more than less frequent fires, and dry-season fires reduced woody vegetation more than wet season fires. Spring fires from the late dry season reduced woody vegetation cover the most, and summer fires from the wet season reduced it the least. Fire had a large effect on structure in the densely wooded granitic landscapes as compared to the more open basaltic landscapes, although proportionally, the woody vegetation was more reduced in the drier than in the wetter landscapes. We show that fire frequency and fire season influence patterns of vegetation three-dimensional structure, which may have cascading consequences for biodiversity. Managers of savannas can therefore use fire frequency and season in concert to achieve specific vegetation structural objectives.

The role of spatial dynamics in the stability, resilience, and productivity of an estuarine fish population

Abstract: Understanding mechanisms that support long-term persistence of populations and sustainability of productive fisheries is a priority in fisheries management. Complex spatial structure within populations is increasingly viewed as a result of a plastic behavioral response that can have consequences for the dynamics of a population. We incorporated spatial structure and environmental forcing into a population model to examine the consequences for population stability (coefficient of variation of spawning-stock biomass), resilience (time to recover from disturbance), and productivity (spawning-stock biomass). White perch (Morone americana) served as a model species that exhibits simultaneous occurrence of migratory and resident groups within a population. We evaluated the role that contingents (behavioral groups within populations that exhibit divergent life histories) play in mitigating population responses to unfavorable environmental conditions. We used age-structured models that incorporated contingent-specific vital rates to simulate population dynamics of white perch in a sub-estuary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. The dynamics of the population were most sensitive to the proportion of individuals within each contingent and to a lesser degree to the level of correlation in recruitment between contingents in their responses to the environment. Increased representation of the dispersive contingent within populations resulted in increased productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Empirical evidence from the Patuxent River white perch population was consistent with these findings. A high negative correlation in resident and dispersive contingent recruitment dynamics resulted in increased productivity and stability, with little effect on resilience. With high positive correlation between contingent recruitments, the model showed similar responses in population productivity and resilience, but decreased stability. Because contingent structure involves differing patterns of nursery habitat use, spatial management that conserves sets of habitats rather than the single most productive nursery habitat would be expected to contribute to long-term population stability.

Interactive effects of historical logging and fire exclusion on ponderosa pine forest structure in the northern Rockies

Abstract: Increased forest density resulting from decades of fire exclusion is often perceived as the leading cause of historically aberrant, severe, contemporary wildfires and insect outbreaks documented in some fire-prone forests of the western United States. Based on this notion, current U.S. forest policy directs managers to reduce stand density and restore historical conditions in fire-excluded forests to help minimize high-severity disturbances. Historical logging, however, has also caused widespread change in forest vegetation conditions, but its long-term effects on vegetation structure and composition have never been adequately quantified. We document that fire-excluded ponderosa pine forests of the northern Rocky Mountains logged prior to 1960 have much higher average stand density, greater homogeneity of stand structure, more standing dead trees and increased abundance of fire-intolerant trees than paired fire-excluded, unlogged counterparts. Notably, the magnitude of the interactive effect of fire exclusion and historical logging substantially exceeds the effects of fire exclusion alone. These differences suggest that historically logged sites are more prone to severe wildfires and insect outbreaks than unlogged, fire-excluded forests and should be considered a high priority for fuels reduction treatments. Furthermore, we propose that ponderosa pine forests with these distinct management histories likely require distinct restoration approaches. We also highlight potential long-term risks of mechanical stand manipulation in unlogged forests and emphasize the need for a long-term view of fuels management.