Showing papers in "Ecological Applications in 2020"

What is known and unknown about the effects of plastic pollution: A meta‐analysis and systematic review

Abstract: As a consequence of the global ubiquity of plastic pollution, scientists, decision-makers, and the public often ask whether macroplastics (>5 mm) and microplastics (<5 mm) have a realized ecological threat. In 2016, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and made a call for further research testing hypotheses about ecological effects. In the subsequent years, the amount of relevant research has risen tremendously. Here, we reassess the literature to determine the current weight of evidence about the effects of plastic pollution across all levels of biological organization. Our data spans marine, freshwater, and terrestrial environments. We extracted data from 139 lab and field studies testing 577 independent effects across a variety of taxa and with various types, sizes, and shapes of plastic. Overall, 59% of the tested effects were detected. Of these, 58% were due to microplastics and 42% were due to macroplastics. Of the effects that were not detected, 94% were from microplastics and 6% were from macroplastics. We found evidence that whether or not an effect is detected, as well as the severity and direction of the effect, is driven by dose, particle shape, polymer type, and particle size. Based on our analyses, there is no doubt that macroplastics are causing ecological effects, however, the effects of microplastics are much more complex. We also assessed the environmental relevancy of experimental studies by comparing the doses used in each exposure to the concentrations and sizes of microplastics found in the environment. We determined that only 17% of the concentrations used in experimental studies have been found in nature, and that 80% of particle sizes used in experiments fall below the size range of the majority of environmental sampling. Based on our systematic review and meta-analysis, we make a call for future work that recognizes the complexity of microplastics and designs tests to better understand how different types, sizes, shapes, doses, and exposure durations affect wildlife. We also call for more ecologically and environmentally relevant studies, particularly in freshwater and terrestrial environments.

Modeling avian full annual cycle distribution and population trends with citizen science data

Abstract: Information on species' distributions, abundances, and how they change over time is central to the study of the ecology and conservation of animal populations. This information is challenging to obtain at landscape scales across range-wide extents for two main reasons. First, landscape-scale processes that affect populations vary throughout the year and across species' ranges, requiring high-resolution, year-round data across broad, sometimes hemispheric, spatial extents. Second, while citizen science projects can collect data at these resolutions and extents, using these data requires appropriate analysis to address known sources of bias. Here, we present an analytical framework to address these challenges and generate year-round, range-wide distributional information using citizen science data. To illustrate this approach, we apply the framework to Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), a long-distance Neotropical migrant and species of conservation concern, using data from the citizen science project eBird. We estimate occurrence and abundance across a range of spatial scales throughout the annual cycle. Additionally, we generate intra-annual estimates of the range, intra-annual estimates of the associations between species and characteristics of the landscape, and interannual trends in abundance for breeding and non-breeding seasons. The range-wide population trajectories for Wood Thrush show a close correspondence between breeding and non-breeding seasons with steep declines between 2010 and 2013 followed by shallower rates of decline from 2013 to 2016. The breeding season range-wide population trajectory based on the independently collected and analyzed North American Breeding Bird Survey data also shows this pattern. The information provided here fills important knowledge gaps for Wood Thrush, especially during the less studied migration and non-breeding periods. More generally, the modeling framework presented here can be used to accurately capture landscape scale intra- and interannual distributional dynamics for broadly distributed, highly mobile species.

From metabarcoding to metaphylogeography: separating the wheat from the chaff.

Abstract: Metabarcoding is by now a well-established method for biodiversity assessment in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine environments. Metabarcoding data sets are usually used for α- and β-diversity estimates, that is, interspecies (or inter-MOTU [molecular operational taxonomic unit]) patterns. However, the use of hypervariable metabarcoding markers may provide an enormous amount of intraspecies (intra-MOTU) information-mostly untapped so far. The use of cytochrome oxidase (COI) amplicons is gaining momentum in metabarcoding studies targeting eukaryote richness. COI has been for a long time the marker of choice in population genetics and phylogeographic studies. Therefore, COI metabarcoding data sets may be used to study intraspecies patterns and phylogeographic features for hundreds of species simultaneously, opening a new field that we suggest to name metaphylogeography. The main challenge for the implementation of this approach is the separation of erroneous sequences from true intra-MOTU variation. Here, we develop a cleaning protocol based on changes in entropy of the different codon positions of the COI sequence, together with co-occurrence patterns of sequences. Using a data set of community DNA from several benthic littoral communities in the Mediterranean and Atlantic seas, we first tested by simulation on a subset of sequences a two-step cleaning approach consisting of a denoising step followed by a minimal abundance filtering. The procedure was then applied to the whole data set. We obtained a total of 563 MOTUs that were usable for phylogeographic inference. We used semiquantitative rank data instead of read abundances to perform AMOVAs and haplotype networks. Genetic variability was mainly concentrated within samples, but with an important between seas component as well. There were intergroup differences in the amount of variability between and within communities in each sea. For two species, the results could be compared with traditional Sanger sequence data available for the same zones, giving similar patterns. Our study shows that metabarcoding data can be used to infer intra- and interpopulation genetic variability of many species at a time, providing a new method with great potential for basic biogeography, connectivity and dispersal studies, and for the more applied fields of conservation genetics, invasion genetics, and design of protected areas.

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and short-term photosynthetic response to drought

Abstract: Drought is among the most damaging climate extremes, potentially causing significant decline in ecosystem functioning and services at the regional to global scale, thus monitoring of drought events is critically important. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been found to strongly correlate with gross primary production on the global scale. Recent advances in the remote sensing of SIF allow for large-scale, real-time estimation of photosynthesis using this relationship. However, several studies have used SIF to quantify the impact of drought with mixed results, and the leaf-level mechanisms linking SIF and photosynthesis are unclear, particularly how the relationship may change under drought. We conducted a drought experiment with 2-yr old Populus deltoides. We measured leaf-level gas exchange, SIF, and pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorescence before and during the 1-month drought. We found clear responses of net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to water stress, however, SIF showed a smaller response to drought. Net photosynthesis (Anet ) and conductance dropped 94% and 95% on average over the drought, while SIF values only decreased slightly (21%). Electron transport rate dropped 64% when compared to the control over the last week of drought, but the electron transport chain did not completely shut down as Anet approached zero. Additionally, SIF yield (SIFy ) was positively correlated with steady-state fluorescence (Fs ) and negatively correlated with non-photochemical quenching (NPQ; R2 = 0.77). Both Fs and SIFy , after normalization by the minimum fluorescence from a dark-adapted sample (Fo ), showed a more pronounced drought response, although the results suggest the response is complicated by several factors. Leaf-level experiments can elucidate mechanisms behind large-scale remote sensing observations of ecosystem functioning. The value of SIF as an accurate estimator of photosynthesis may decrease during mild stress events of short duration, especially when the response is primarily stomatal and not fully coupled with the light reactions of photosynthesis. We discuss potential factors affecting the weak SIF response to drought, including upregulation of NPQ, change in internal leaf structure and chlorophyll concentration, and photorespiration. The results suggest that SIF is mainly controlled by the light reactions of photosynthesis, which operate on different timescales than the stomatal response.

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co-benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Abstract: Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High-productivity, low-vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above- and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

The importance of street trees to urban avifauna.

Abstract: Street trees are public resources planted in a municipality’s right‐of‐way and are a considerable component of urban forests throughout the world. Street trees provide numerous benefits to people. However, many metropolitan areas have a poor understanding of the value of street trees to wildlife, which presents a gap in our knowledge of conservation in urban ecosystems. Greater Los Angeles (LA) is a global city harboring one of the most diverse and extensive urban forests on the planet. The vast majority of the urban forest is nonnative in geographic origin, planted throughout LA following the influx of irrigated water in the early 1900s. In addition to its extensive urban forest, LA is home to a high diversity of birds, which utilize the metropolis throughout the annual cycle. The cover of the urban forest, and likely street trees, varies dramatically across a socioeconomic gradient. However, it is unknown how this variability influences avian communities. To understand the importance of street trees to urban avifauna, we documented foraging behavior by birds on native and nonnative street trees across a socioeconomic gradient throughout LA. Affluent communities harbored a unique composition of street trees, including denser and larger trees than lower‐income communities, which in turn, attracted nearly five times the density of feeding birds. Foraging birds strongly preferred two native street‐tree species as feeding substrates, the coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and the California sycamore (Platanus racemosa), and a handful of nonnative tree species, including the Chinese elm (Ulmus parvifolia), the carrotwood (Cupaniopsis anacardioides), and the southern live oak (Quercus virginiana), in greater proportion than their availability throughout the cityscape (two to three times their availability). Eighty‐three percent of street‐tree species (n = 108, total) were used in a lower proportion than their availability by feeding birds, and nearly all were nonnative in origin. Our findings highlight the positive influence of street trees on urban avifauna. In particular, our results suggest that improved street‐tree management in lower‐income communities would likely positively benefit birds. Further, our study provides support for the high value of native street‐tree species and select nonnative species as important habitat for feeding birds.

A fast-moving target: achieving marine conservation goals under shifting climate and policies.

Abstract: In the Anthropocene, marine ecosystems are rapidly shifting to new ecological states. Achieving effective conservation of marine biodiversity has become a fast-moving target because of both global climate change and continuous shifts in marine policies. How prepared are we to deal with this crisis? We examined EU Member States Programs of Measures designed for the implementation of EU marine environmental policies, as well as recent European Marine Spatial Plans, and discovered that climate change is rarely considered operationally. Further, our analysis revealed that monitoring programs in marine protected areas are often insufficient to clearly distinguish between impacts of local and global stressors. Finally, we suggest that while the novel global Blue Growth approach may jeopardize previous marine conservation efforts, it can also provide new conservation opportunities. Adaptive management is the way forward (e.g., preserving ecosystem functions in climate change hotspots, and identifying and targeting climate refugia areas for protection) using Marine Spatial Planning as a framework for action, especially given the push for Blue Growth.

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Abstract: Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

High-severity wildfire leads to multi-decadal impacts on soil biogeochemistry in mixed-conifer forests

Abstract: During the past century, systematic wildfire suppression has decreased fire frequency and increased fire severity in the western United States of America. While this has resulted in large ecological changes aboveground such as altered tree species composition and increased forest density, little is known about the long-term, belowground implications of altered, ecologically novel, fire regimes, especially on soil biological processes. To better understand the long-term implications of ecologically novel, high-severity fire, we used a 44-yr high-severity fire chronosequence in the Sierra Nevada where forests were historically adapted to frequent, low-severity fire, but were fire suppressed for at least 70 yr. High-severity fire in the Sierra Nevada resulted in a long-term (44 +yr) decrease (>50%, P 50%, P < 0.05) in the upper 5 cm compared to sites that had not been burned for at least 115 yr. However, nitrogen (N) processes were only affected in the most recent fire site (4 yr post-fire). Net nitrification increased by over 600% in the most recent fire site (P < 0.001), but returned to similar levels as the unburned control in the 13-yr site. Contrary to previous studies, we did not find a consistent effect of plant cover type on soil biogeochemical processes in mid-successional (10-50 yr) forest soils. Rather, the 44-yr reduction in soil organic carbon (C) quantity correlated positively with dampened C cycling processes. Our results show the drastic and long-term implication of ecologically novel, high-severity fire on soil biogeochemistry and underscore the need for long-term fire ecological experiments.

Limitations to recovery following wildfire in dry forests of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, USA.

Abstract: Climate warming is contributing to increases in wildfire activity throughout the western United States, leading to potentially long-lasting shifts in vegetation. The response of forest ecosystems to wildfire is thus a crucial indicator of future vegetation trajectories, and these responses are contingent upon factors such as seed availability, interannual climate variability, average climate, and other components of the physical environment. To better understand variation in resilience to wildfire across vulnerable dry forests, we surveyed conifer seedling densities in 15 recent (1988-2010) wildfires and characterized temporal variation in seed cone production and seedling establishment. We then predicted postfire seedling densities at a 30-m resolution within each fire perimeter using downscaled climate data, monthly water balance models, and maps of surviving forest cover. Widespread ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seed cone production occurred at least twice following each fire surveyed, and pulses of conifer seedling establishment coincided with years of above-average moisture availability. Ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) seedling densities were higher on more mesic sites and adjacent to surviving trees, though there were also important interspecific differences, likely attributable to drought and shade tolerance. We estimated that postfire seedling densities in 42% (for ponderosa pine) and 69% (for Douglas-fir) of the total burned area were below the lowest reported historical tree densities in these forests. Spatial models demonstrated that an absence of mature conifers (particularly in the interior of large, high-severity patches) limited seedling densities in many areas, but 30-yr average actual evapotranspiration and climatic water deficit limited densities on marginal sites. A better understanding of the limitations to postfire forest recovery will refine models of vegetation dynamics and will help to improve strategies of adaptation to a warming climate and shifting fire activity.

Fuel treatment effectiveness in the context of landform, vegetation, and large, wind‐driven wildfires

Abstract: Large wildfires (>50,000 ha) are becoming increasingly common in semiarid landscapes of the western United States. Although fuel reduction treatments are used to mitigate potential wildfire effects, they can be overwhelmed in wind-driven wildfire events with extreme fire behavior. We evaluated drivers of fire severity and fuel treatment effectiveness in the 2014 Carlton Complex, a record-setting complex of wildfires in north-central Washington State. Across varied topography, vegetation, and distinct fire progressions, we used a combination of simultaneous autoregression (SAR) and random forest (RF) approaches to model drivers of fire severity and evaluated how fuel treatments mitigated fire severity. Predictor variables included fuel treatment type, time since treatment, topographic indices, vegetation and fuels, and weather summarized by progression interval. We found that the two spatial regression methods are generally complementary and are instructive as a combined approach for landscape analyses of fire severity. Simultaneous autoregression improves upon traditional linear models by incorporating information about neighboring pixel burn severity, which avoids type I errors in coefficient estimates and incorrect inferences. Random forest modeling provides a flexible modeling environment capable of capturing complex interactions and nonlinearities while still accounting for spatial autocorrelation through the use of spatially explicit predictor variables. All treatment areas burned with higher proportions of moderate and high-severity fire during early fire progressions, but thin and underburn, underburn only, and past wildfires were more effective than thin-only and thin and pile burn treatments. Treatment units had much greater percentages of unburned and low severity area in later progressions that burned under milder fire weather conditions, and differences between treatments were less pronounced. Our results provide evidence that strategic placement of fuels reduction treatments can effectively reduce localized fire spread and severity even under severe fire weather. During wind-driven fire spread progressions, fuel treatments that were located on leeward slopes tended to have lower fire severity than treatments located on windward slopes. As fire and fuels managers evaluate options for increasing landscape resilience to future climate change and wildfires, strategic placement of fuel treatments may be guided by retrospective studies of past large wildfire events.

Rapid peat development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests: ecosystem changes across a 25-yr chronosequence

Abstract: Mangrove forests are among the world's most productive and carbon-rich ecosystems. Despite growing understanding of factors controlling mangrove forest soil carbon stocks, there is a need to advance understanding of the speed of peat development beneath maturing mangrove forests, especially in created and restored mangrove forests that are intended to compensate for ecosystem functions lost during mangrove forest conversion to other land uses. To better quantify the rate of soil organic matter development beneath created, maturing mangrove forests, we measured ecosystem changes across a 25-yr chronosequence. We compared ecosystem properties in created, maturing mangrove forests to adjacent natural mangrove forests. We also quantified site-specific changes that occurred between 2010 and 2016. Soil organic matter accumulated rapidly beneath maturing mangrove forests as sandy soils transitioned to organic-rich soils (peat). Within 25 yr, a 20-cm deep peat layer developed. The time required for created mangrove forests to reach equivalency with natural mangrove forests was estimated as (1) <15 yr for herbaceous and juvenile vegetation, (2) ~55 yr for adult trees, (3) ~25 yr for the upper soil layer (0-10 cm), and (4) ~45-80 yr for the lower soil layer (10-30 cm). For soil elevation change, the created mangrove forests were equivalent to or surpassed natural mangrove forests within the first 5 yr. A comparison to chronosequence studies from other ecosystems indicates that the rate of soil organic matter accumulation beneath maturing mangrove forests may be among the fastest globally. In most peatland ecosystems, soil organic matter formation occurs slowly (over centuries, millennia); however, these results show that mangrove peat formation can occur within decades. Peat development, primarily due to subsurface root accumulation, enables mangrove forests to sequester carbon, adjust their elevation relative to sea level, and adapt to changing conditions at the dynamic land-ocean interface. In the face of climate change and rising sea levels, coastal managers are increasingly concerned with the longevity and functionality of coastal restoration efforts. Our results advance understanding of the pace of ecosystem development in created, maturing mangrove forests, which can improve predictions of mangrove forest responses to global change and ecosystem restoration.

A need for speed in Bayesian population models: a practical guide to marginalizing and recovering discrete latent states.

Abstract: Bayesian population models can be exceedingly slow due, in part, to the choice to simulate discrete latent states. Here, we discuss an alternative approach to discrete latent states, marginalization, that forms the basis of maximum likelihood population models and is much faster. Our manuscript has two goals: (1) to introduce readers unfamiliar with marginalization to the concept and provide worked examples and (2) to address topics associated with marginalization that have not been previously synthesized and are relevant to both Bayesian and maximum likelihood models. We begin by explaining marginalization using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. Next, we apply marginalization to multistate capture-recapture, community occupancy, and integrated population models and briefly discuss random effects, priors, and pseudo-R2 . Then, we focus on recovery of discrete latent states, defining different types of conditional probabilities and showing how quantities such as population abundance or species richness can be estimated in marginalized code. Last, we show that occupancy and site-abundance models with auto-covariates can be fit with marginalized code with minimal impact on parameter estimates. Marginalized code was anywhere from five to >1,000 times faster than discrete code and differences in inferences were minimal. Discrete latent states and fully conditional approaches provide the best estimates of conditional probabilities for a given site or individual. However, estimates for parameters and derived quantities such as species richness and abundance are minimally affected by marginalization. In the case of abundance, marginalized code is both quicker and has lower bias than an N-augmentation approach. Understanding how marginalization works shrinks the divide between Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches to population models. Some models that have only been presented in a Bayesian framework can easily be fit in maximum likelihood. On the other hand, factors such as informative priors, random effects, or pseudo-R2 values may motivate a Bayesian approach in some applications. An understanding of marginalization allows users to minimize the speed that is sacrificed when switching from a maximum likelihood approach. Widespread application of marginalization in Bayesian population models will facilitate more thorough simulation studies, comparisons of alternative model structures, and faster learning.

Unfolding the effects of different forestry treatments on microclimate in oak forests: results of a 4-yr experiment.

Abstract: A stable below-canopy microclimate of forests is essential for their biodiversity and ecosystem functionality. Forest management necessarily modifies the buffering capacity of woodlands. However, the specific effects of different forestry treatments on site conditions, the temporal recovery after the harvests, and the reason for the contrasts between treatments are still poorly understood. The effects of four different forestry treatments (clear-cutting, retention tree group, preparation cutting, and gap-cutting) on microclimatic variables were studied within a field experiment in a managed oak-dominated stand in Hungary, before (2014) and after (2015-2017) the interventions by complete block design with six replicates. From the first post-treatment year, clear-cuts differed the most from the uncut control due to the increased irradiance and heat load. Means and variability of air and soil temperature increased, air became dryer along with higher soil moisture levels. Retention tree groups could effectively ameliorate the extreme temperatures but not the mean values. Preparation cutting induced slight changes from the original buffered and humid forest microclimate. Despite the substantially more incoming light, gap-cutting could retain the cool and humid air conditions and showed the highest increase in soil moisture after the interventions. For most microclimate variables, we could not observe any obvious trend within 3 yr. However, soil temperature variability decreased with time in clear-cuts, while soil moisture difference continuously increased in gap- and clear-cuts. Based on multivariate analyses, the treatments separated significantly based mainly on the temperature maxima and variability. We found that (1) the effect sizes among treatment levels were consistent throughout the years, (2) the climatic recovery time for variables appears to be far more than 3 yr, and (3) the applied silvicultural methods diverged mainly among the temperature maxima. Based on our study, the spatially heterogeneous and fine-scaled treatments of continuous cover forestry (gap-cutting, selection systems) are recommended. By applying these practices, the essential structural elements creating buffered microclimate could be more successfully maintained. Thus, forestry interventions could induce less pronounced alterations in environmental conditions for forest-dwelling organism groups.

Predicting functional responses in agro-ecosystems from animal movement data to improve management of invasive pests

Abstract: Functional responses describe how changing resource availability affects consumer resource use, thus providing a mechanistic approach to prediction of the invasibility and potential damage of invasive alien species (IAS). However, functional responses can be context dependent, varying with resource characteristics and availability, consumer attributes, and environmental variables. Identifying context dependencies can allow invasion and damage risk to be predicted across different ecoregions. Understanding how ecological factors shape the functional response in agro-ecosystems can improve predictions of hotspots of highest impact and inform strategies to mitigate damage across locations with varying crop types and availability. We linked heterogeneous movement data across different agro-ecosystems to predict ecologically driven variability in the functional responses. We applied our approach to wild pigs (Sus scrofa), one of the most successful and detrimental IAS worldwide where agricultural resource depredation is an important driver of spread and establishment. We used continental-scale movement data within agro-ecosystems to quantify the functional response of agricultural resources relative to availability of crops and natural forage. We hypothesized that wild pigs would selectively use crops more often when natural forage resources were low. We also examined how individual attributes such as sex, crop type, and resource stimulus such as distance to crops altered the magnitude of the functional response. There was a strong agricultural functional response where crop use was an accelerating function of crop availability at low density (Type III) and was highly context dependent. As hypothesized, there was a reduced response of crop use with increasing crop availability when non-agricultural resources were more available, emphasizing that crop damage levels are likely to be highly heterogeneous depending on surrounding natural resources and temporal availability of crops. We found significant effects of crop type and sex, with males spending 20% more time and visiting crops 58% more often than females, and both sexes showing different functional responses depending on crop type. Our application demonstrates how commonly collected animal movement data can be used to understand context dependencies in resource use to improve our understanding of pest foraging behavior, with implications for prioritizing spatiotemporal hotspots of potential economic loss in agro-ecosystems.

Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species.

Abstract: Boreal forests are experiencing dramatic climate change, having warmed 1.0°-1.9°C over the last century. Yet forest regeneration practices are often still dictated by a fixed seed zone framework, in which seeds are both harvested from and planted into predefined areas. Our goal was to determine whether seedlings sourced from southern seed zones in Minnesota USA are already better adapted to northerly seed zones because of climate change. Bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra) seedlings from two seed zones (i.e., tree ecotypes) were planted into 16 sites in two northern seed zones and measured for 3 yr. Our hypotheses were threefold: (1) tree species with more southern geographic distributions would thrive in northern forests where climate has already warmed substantially, (2) southern ecotypes of these species would have higher survival and growth than the northern ecotype in northern environments, and (3) natural selection would favor seedlings that expressed phenotypic and phenological traits characteristic of trees sourced from the more southern seed zone. For both species, survival was high (>93%), and southern ecotypes expressed traits consistent with our climate adaptation hypotheses. Ecotypic differences were especially evident for red oak; the southern ecotype had had higher survival, lower specific leaf area (SLA), faster height and diameter growth, and extended leaf phenology relative to the northern ecotype. Bur oak results were weaker, but the southern ecotype also had earlier budburst and lower SLA than the northern ecotype. Models based on the fixed seed zones failed to explain seedling performance as well as those with continuous predictors (e.g., climate and geographical position), suggesting that plant adaptations within current seed zone delineations do align with changing climate conditions. Adding support for this conclusion, natural selection favored traits expressed by the more southern tree ecotypes. Collectively, these results suggest that state seed sourcing guidelines should be reexamined to permit plantings across seed zones, a form of assisted migration. More extensive experiments (i.e., provenance trails) are necessary to make species-specific seed transfer guidelines that account for climate trends while also considering the precise geographic origin of seed sources.

Drivers of global Scolytinae invasion patterns

Abstract: Biological invasions are affected by characteristics of invading species, strength of pathway connectivity among world regions and habitat characteristics of invaded regions. These factors may interact in complex ways to drive geographical variation in numbers of invasions among world regions. Understanding the role of these drivers provides information that is crucial to the development of effective biosecurity policies. Here we assemble for the first time a global database of historical invasions of Scolytinae species and explore factors explaining geographical variation in numbers of species invading different regions. This insect group includes several pest species with massive economic and ecological impacts and these beetles are known to be accidentally moved with wood packaging in global trade. Candidate explanatory characteristics included in this analysis are cumulative trade among world regions, size of source species pools, forest area, and climatic similarity of the invaded region with source regions. Species capable of sib-mating comprised the highest proportion on nonnative Scolytines, and these species colonized a higher number of regions than outbreeders. The size of source species pools offered little power in explaining variation in numbers of invasions among world regions nor did climate or forest area. In contrast, cumulative trade had a strong and consistent positive relationship with numbers of Scolytinae species moving from one region to another, and this effect was highest for bark beetles, followed by ambrosia beetles, and was low for seed and twig feeders. We conclude that global variation in Scolytine invasions is primarily driven by variation in trade levels among world regions. Results stress the importance of global trade as the primary driver of historical Scolytinae invasions and we anticipate other hitchhiking species would exhibit similar patterns. One implication of these results is that invasions between certain world regions may be historically low because of past low levels of trade but future economic shifts could result in large numbers of new invasions as a result of increased trade among previously isolated portions of the world. With changing global flow of goods among world regions, it is crucial that biosecurity efforts keep pace to minimize future invasions and their impacts.

Smokey the Beaver: beaver-dammed riparian corridors stay green during wildfire throughout the western United States.

Abstract: Beaver dams are gaining popularity as a low-tech, low-cost strategy to build climate resiliency at the landscape scale. They slow and store water that can be accessed by riparian vegetation during dry periods, effectively protecting riparian ecosystems from droughts. Whether or not this protection extends to wildfire has been discussed anecdotally but has not been examined in a scientific context. We used remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to compare riparian vegetation greenness in areas with and without beaver damming during wildfire. We include data from five large wildfires of varying burn severity and dominant landcover settings in the western United States in our analysis. We found that beaver-dammed riparian corridors are relatively unaffected by wildfire when compared to similar riparian corridors without beaver damming. On average, the decrease in NDVI during fire in areas without beaver is 3.05 times as large as it is in areas with beaver. However, plant greenness rebounded in the year after wildfire regardless of beaver activity. Thus, we conclude that, while beaver activity does not necessarily play a role in riparian vegetation post-fire resilience, it does play a significant role in riparian vegetation fire resistance and refugia creation.

Artificial light at night, in interaction with spring temperature, modulates timing of reproduction in a passerine bird

Abstract: The ecological impact of artificial light at night (ALAN) on phenological events such as reproductive timing is increasingly recognized. In birds, previous experiments under controlled conditions showed that ALAN strongly advances gonadal growth, but effects on egg-laying date are less clear. In particular, effects of ALAN on timing of egg laying are found to be year-dependent, suggesting an interaction with climatic conditions such as spring temperature, which is known have strong effects on the phenology of avian breeding. Thus, we hypothesized that ALAN and temperature interact to regulate timing of reproduction in wild birds. Field studies have suggested that sources of ALAN rich in short wavelengths can lead to stronger advances in egg-laying date. We therefore tested this hypothesis in the Great Tit (Parus major), using a replicated experimental set-up where eight previously unlit forest transects were illuminated with either white, green, or red LED light, or left dark as controls. We measured timing of egg laying for 619 breeding events spread over six consecutive years and obtained temperature data for all sites and years. We detected overall significantly earlier egg-laying dates in the white and green light vs. the dark treatment, and similar trends for red light. However, there was a strong interannual variability in mean egg-laying dates in all treatments, which was explained by spring temperature. We did not detect any fitness consequence of the changed timing of egg laying due to ALAN, which suggests that advancing reproduction in response to ALAN might be adaptive.

Direct evidence using a controlled greenhouse study for threshold effects of soil organic matter on crop growth

Abstract: Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator of soil fertility, and building SOM is assumed to decrease reliance on external inputs and ensure stable crop production. Recent syntheses of field data support this assumption with positive SOM-productivity relationships that asymptote at ~4% SOM. Teasing out the directionality of this relationship-the extent to which SOM increases crop growth vs. greater growth leading to higher SOM concentrations-requires controlled experimentation. To disentangle this causative pathway, we conducted a greenhouse experiment whereby we manipulated SOM concentrations from 1% to 9% and evaluated whether the SOM-productivity relationship differed for spring wheat (Triticum aestivum, L.) under nitrogen fertilization crossed with irrigation due to the expectation that SOM buffers the effects of reduced fertilization and/or irrigation. We found that higher concentrations of SOM led to greater productivity (measured as aboveground biomass) up to a threshold of 5% SOM, after which productivity declined across all treatments. These declines occurred despite the fact that indicators of soil health (water-holding capacity, microbial biomass, and bulk density) improved linearly with increasing SOM concentrations. That is, improvements in soil properties did not translate to gains in productivity at the highest SOM levels. Nitrogen fertilization led to greater productivity across all treatments, but to a greater relative extent at lower SOM levels, where we found that productivity on unfertilized soils with 4% SOM matched that of fertilized soils with 2% SOM. Differences in productivity on unfertilized soils due to irrigation emerged at higher SOM levels (>5%), highlighting SOM's role in water retention. Our results demonstrate that building SOM leads to improved growth of a globally important crop; however, our results also indicated a pronounced SOM threshold, after which crop growth declined. This underscores the need to develop optimal SOM targets for desired agricultural and environmental outcomes.

Predicting ecosystem state changes in shallow lakes using an aquatic ecosystem model: Lake Hinge, Denmark, an example

Abstract: In recent years, considerable efforts have been made to restore turbid, phytoplankton-dominated shallow lakes to a clear-water state with high coverage of submerged macrophytes. Various dynamic lake models with simplified physical representations of vertical gradients, such as PCLake, have been used to predict external nutrient load thresholds for such nonlinear regime shifts. However, recent observational studies have questioned the concept of regime shifts by emphasizing that gradual changes are more common than sudden shifts. We investigated if regime shifts would be more gradual if the models account for depth-dependent heterogeneity of the system by including the possibility of vertical gradients in the water column and sediment layers for the entire depth. Hence, bifurcation analysis was undertaken using the 1D hydrodynamic model GOTM, accounting for vertical gradients, coupled to the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake, which is implemented in the framework for aquatic biogeochemical modeling (FABM). First, the model was calibrated and validated against a comprehensive data set covering two consecutive 7-yr periods from Lake Hinge, a shallow, eutrophic Danish lake. The autocalibration program Auto-Calibration Python (ACPy) was applied to achieve a more comprehensive adjustment of model parameters. The model simulations showed excellent agreement with observed data for water temperature, total nitrogen, and nitrate and good agreement for ammonium, total phosphorus, phosphate, and chlorophyll a concentrations. Zooplankton and macrophyte coverage were adequately simulated for the purpose of this study, and in general the GOTM-FABM-PCLake model simulations performed well compared with other model studies. In contrast to previous model studies ignoring depth heterogeneity, our bifurcation analysis revealed that the spatial extent and depth limitation of macrophytes as well as phytoplankton chlorophyll-a responded more gradually over time to a reduction in the external phosphorus load, albeit some hysteresis effects still appeared. In a management perspective, our study emphasizes the need to include depth heterogeneity in the model structure to more correctly determine at which external nutrient load a given lake changes ecosystem state to a clear-water condition.

Local- and landscape-scale variables shape insect diversity in an urban biodiversity hot spot

Abstract: Local community structure is shaped by processes acting at local and landscape scales. The relative importance of drivers operating across different spatial scales is difficult to test without observations across regional or latitudinal gradients. Cities exhibit strong but predictable environmental gradients overlaying a mosaic of highly variable but repeated habitat types within a constrained area. Thus, cities present a unique opportunity to explore how both local and landscape factors influence local biotic communities. We used insect communities to examine the interactions among local environmental variables (such as temperature and relative humidity), local habitat characteristics (such as plant community composition), and broad-scale patterns of urbanization (including biophysical, human-built, and socioeconomic variables) on local insect abundance, species richness, and species composition in Los Angeles, a hot, dry, near-desert city. After accounting for seasonal trends, insect species richness and abundance were highest in drier and hotter sites, but the magnitude of local environmental effects varied with the degree of urbanization. In contrast, insect species composition was best predicted by broad-scale urbanization trends, with the more native communities occurring in less urbanized sites and more cosmopolitan insects occurring in highly urbanized sites. However, insect species richness and abundance were >30% higher and insect composition was similar across sites that hosted either native or drought-tolerant plants, regardless of the degree of urbanization. These results demonstrate that urban insect biodiversity is a product of interacting mechanisms working at both local and landscape scales. However, local-scale changes to urban habitats, such as cultivating plants that are adapted to the natural environment nearest the city, can positively impact urban biodiversity regardless of location.

Horticultural availability and homeowner preferences drive plant diversity and composition in urban yards.

Abstract: Understanding the factors that influence biodiversity in urban areas is important for informing management efforts aimed at enhancing the ecosystem services in urban settings and curbing the spread of invasive introduced species. We determined the ecological and socioeconomic factors that influence patterns of plant richness, phylogenetic diversity, and composition in 133 private household yards in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metropolitan area, Minnesota, USA. We compared the composition of spontaneously occurring plant species and those planted by homeowners with composition in natural areas (at the Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve) and in the horticulture pool of species available from commercial growers. Yard area and fertilizer frequency influenced species richness of the spontaneous species but expressed homeowner values did not. In contrast, the criteria that homeowners articulated as important in their management decisions, including aesthetics, wildlife, neatness and food provision, significantly predicted cultivated species richness. Strikingly, the composition of plant species that people cultivated in their yards resembled the taxonomic and phylogenetic composition of species available commercially. In contrast, the taxonomic and phylogenetic composition of spontaneous species showed high similarity to natural areas. The large fraction of introduced species that homeowners planted was a likely consequence of what was available for them to purchase. The study links the composition and diversity of yard flora to their natural and anthropogenic sources and sheds light on the human factors and values that influence the plant diversity in residential areas of a major urban system. Enhanced understanding of the influences of the sources of plants, both native and introduced, that enter urban systems and the human factors and values that influence their diversity is critical to identifying the levers to manage urban biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Direct and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation on alpine seed banks in the Tibetan Plateau.

Abstract: Plant community responses to global environmental change focus primarily on aboveground vegetation; however, the important role of the seed bank is frequently neglected. Specifically, the direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on seed banks remain poorly understood, yet seed banks provide a vital source of ecosystem resilience to global environmental change. We used a structural equation model to explore the direct and indirect effects of temperature, precipitation, and other biotic and abiotic factors on soil seed bank community composition using 1,026 soil seed bank samples from 57 sites along an elevation gradient that served as a space-for-time substitution for changing climate in the Tibetan Plateau. Seed bank richness was negatively correlated with both precipitation and temperature, but neither climate factor affected seed bank density. Temperature was also negatively correlated with vegetation species richness, which was positively correlated with seed bank richness and density. Both precipitation and temperature were positively correlated with soil total N, and total N was negatively correlated with vegetation richness. Both precipitation and temperature were negatively correlated with soil pH, and soil pH was negatively correlated with vegetation richness, but positively correlated with seed bank richness and density. Increasing precipitation and temperature would decrease seed bank diversity through direct effects as well as indirectly by decreasing vegetation diversity. Soil pH and total N emerged as the most important soil abiotic factors for seed bank diversity. Increasing precipitation and temperature under climate change may increase the extinction risk of some species in the seed bank by altering bet-hedging and risk-spreading strategies, which will degrade natural restoration ability and ultimately ecosystem resilience. This research is important because it identifies the potential underlying mechanistic basis of climate change impacts on seed banks through effects of aboveground vegetation and belowground biotic and abiotic factors.

Suitable climatic habitat changes for Mexican conifers along altitudinal gradients under climatic change scenarios.

Abstract: The high biodiversity of the Mexican montane forests is concentrated on the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, where several Protected Natural Areas exist. Our study examines the projected changes in suitable climatic habitat for five conifer species that dominate these forests. The species are distributed sequentially in overlapping altitudinal bands: Pinus hartwegii at the upper timberline, followed by Abies religiosa, the overwintering host of the Monarch butterfly at the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, P. pseudostrobus, the most important in economic terms, and P. devoniana and P. oocarpa, which are important for resin production and occupy low altitudes where montane conifers merge with tropical dry forests. We fit a bioclimatic model to presence-absence observations for each species using the Random Forests classification tree with ground plot data. The models are driven by normal climatic variables from 1961 to 1990, which represents the reference period for climate-induced vegetation changes. Climate data from an ensemble of 17 general circulation models were run through the classification tree to project current distributions under climates described by the RCP 6.0 watts/m2 scenario for the decades centered on years 2030, 2060 and 2090. The results suggest that, by 2060, the climate niche of each species will occur at elevations that are between 300 to 500 m higher than at present. By 2060, habitat loss could amount to 46-77%, mostly affecting the lower limits of distribution. The two species at the highest elevation, P. hartwegii and A. religiosa, would suffer the greatest losses while, at the lower elevations, P. oocarpa would gain the most niche space. Our results suggest that conifers will require human assistance to migrate altitudinally upward in order to recouple populations with the climates to which they are adapted. Traditional in situ conservation measures are likely to be equivalent to inaction and will therefore be incapable of maintaining current forest compositions.

Long-term dynamics and drivers of coral and macroalgal cover on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

Abstract: Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40-50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12-18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.

Multi-temporal assessment of grassland α- and β-diversity using hyperspectral imaging

Abstract: While more and more studies are exploring the application of remote sensing in assessing biodiversity for different ecosystems, most consider biodiversity at one point in time. Using several remote-sensing-based metrics, we asked how well remote sensing can detect biodiversity (both α- and β-diversity) in a prairie grassland across time using airborne hyperspectral data collected in two successive years (2017 and 2018) and at different periods in the growing season (2018). The ability to detect biodiversity using "spectral diversity" and "spectral species" types indeed varied significantly over a 2-yr timespan. Toward the end of the growing season in 2018, the relationship between field- and remote-sensing-based α- and β-diversity weakened compared to data collected from the same season in the previous year. This contrasting pattern between the two years was likely influenced by prescribed fire, altered weather, and the resulting shifting species composition and phenology. These findings indicate that direct detection of α- and β-diversity in grasslands should be multi-temporal when possible and should consider the effect of disturbances, climate variables, and phenology. We demonstrate an essential role for airborne platforms in developing a global biodiversity monitoring system involving forthcoming space-borne hyperspectral sensors.

Hydropeaking affects germination and establishment of riverbank vegetation.

Abstract: Hydropeaking, defined as frequent and rapid variation in flow in regulated rivers with hydropower plants over a short period of time, usually sub-daily to weekly, alters hydraulic parameters such as water levels or flow velocity and exerts strong impacts on fluvial ecosystems. We evaluated the effects of hydropeaking on riverbank vegetation, specifically assessing the germination and establishment of seedlings and cuttings of plant species representing a variation in traits. We used seeds and seedlings and cuttings varying in size as phytometers, and transplanted them to riverbanks both above and below dams used for hydropower production in northern Sweden, selected to represent a gradient in hydropeaking intensity, and along a free-flowing reach. We also analyzed sub-daily water-level variables modified by hydropeaking to identify variables key in explaining the observed vegetation patterns. We found that plant responses to hydropeaking varied with species, with flood-intolerant species being the most strongly affected, as early as the germination stage. In contrast, seeds of flood-tolerant species managed to germinate and survive the early establishment phase, although strong erosive processes triggered by hydropeaking eventually caused most of them to fail. The fate of flood-intolerant species identifies germination as the most critical life-history stage. The depth and frequency of the inundation were the leading variables explaining plant responses, while the duration of shallow inundation explained little of the variation. The rise and fall rates of water levels were key in explaining variation in germination success. Based on the results, we propose restoration measures to enhance establishment of riparian plant communities while minimizing the impact on hydropower electricity production. Given the strong decrease in the germination of species intolerant to prolonged flooding with hydropeaking, planting of seedlings, preferably of large sizes, together with restrictions in the operation of the power plant during the establishment phase to enhance survival would be the best restoration option. Given the high probability of plant uprooting with hydropeaking, bank protection measures have the potential to increase riparian plant survival of all species, including flooding-tolerant species.

How does increasing mast seeding frequency affect population dynamics of seed consumers? Wild boar as a case study

Abstract: Mast seeding in temperate oak populations shapes the dynamics of seed consumers and numerous communities. Mast seeding responds positively to warm spring temperatures and is therefore expected to increase under global warming. We investigated the potential effects of changes in oak mast seeding on wild boar population dynamics, a widespread and abundant consumer species. Using long-term monitoring data, we showed that abundant acorn production enhances the proportion of breeding females. With a body-mass-structured population model and a fixed hunting rate of 0.424, we showed that high acorn production over time would lead to an average wild boar population growth rate of 1.197 whereas non-acorn production would lead to a stable population. Finally, using climate projections and a mechanistic model linking weather data to oak reproduction, we predicted that mast seeding frequency might increase over the next century, which would lead to increase in both wild boar population size and the magnitude of its temporal variation. Our study provides rare evidence that some species could greatly benefit from global warming thanks to higher food availability and therefore highlights the importance of investigating the cascading effects of changing weather conditions on the dynamics of wild animal populations to reliably assess the effects of climate change.

Shipping alters the movement and behavior of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), a keystone fish in Arctic marine ecosystems.

Abstract: Anthropogenic noise associated with shipping has emerged as a major disruptor of aquatic animal behavior worldwide. The Arctic marine realm has historically experienced little noise-generating human activity; however, the continual loss of sea ice has facilitated a dramatic increase in shipping activity. Here, we use a combination of acoustic telemetry and modeling of ship noise to examine the temporospatial habitat use of key Arctic forage fish, Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) in the presence and absence of vessels in Resolute Bay, Nunavut, Canada. The presence and movement of vessels induced a horizontal shift in the home ranges of Arctic cod with low core overlap when compared to periods without vessel activity. Home range displacement occurred near the vessel. Individuals also altered their swimming behaviors in response to vessel presence with searching decreasing and travelling increasing in proportion. Results indicate that Arctic cod perceive vessel noise and presence as a threat and react by moving away and decreasing exploratory activities. These changes in fish behavior also coincide with the critical open water feeding period suggesting an interruption in exploitation of important and seasonally abundant food resources, and carry broader implications for dependent seabirds and marine mammals, and indirectly for all Arctic indigenous peoples' subsistence and long-term cultural traditions. Our study implies that strategic management is required for aquatic acoustic disturbance as an environmental stressor in the Arctic marine ecosystem, and highlights ecologically and socially important impacts that require timely conservation action.