Showing papers in "Ecology in 2006"

Variation partitioning of species data matrices: estimation and comparison of fractions

Abstract: Establishing relationships between species distributions and environmental characteristics is a major goal in the search for forces driving species distributions. Canonical ordinations such as redundancy analysis and canonical correspondence analysis are invaluable tools for modeling communities through environmental predictors. They provide the means for conducting direct explanatory analysis in which the association among species can be studied according to their common and unique relationships with the environmental variables and other sets of predictors of interest, such as spatial variables. Variation partitioning can then be used to test and determine the likelihood of these sets of predictors in explaining patterns in community structure. Although variation partitioning in canonical analysis is routinely used in ecological analysis, no effort has been reported in the literature to consider appropriate estimators so that comparisons between fractions or, eventually, between different canonical models are meaningful. In this paper, we show that variation partitioning as currently applied in canonical analysis is biased. We present appropriate unbiased estimators. In addition, we outline a statistical test to compare fractions in canonical analysis. The question addressed by the test is whether two fractions of variation are significantly different from each other. Such assessment provides an important step toward attaining an understanding of the factors patterning community structure. The test is shown to have correct Type I error rates and good power for both redundancy analysis and canonical correspondence analysis.

A trait-based test for habitat filtering: convex hull volume

Abstract: Community assembly theory suggests that two processes affect the distribution of trait values within communities: competition and habitat filtering. Within a local community, competition leads to ecological differentiation of coexisting species, while habitat filtering reduces the spread of trait values, reflecting shared ecological tolerances. Many statistical tests for the effects of competition exist in the literature, but measures of habitat filtering are less well-developed. Here, we present convex hull volume, a construct from computational geometry, which provides an n-dimensional measure of the volume of trait space occupied by species in a community. Combined with ecological null models, this measure offers a useful test for habitat filtering. We use convex hull volume and a null model to analyze California woody-plant trait and community data. Our results show that observed plant communities occupy less trait space than expected from random assembly, a result consistent with habitat filtering.

Strength of evidence for density dependence in abundance time series of 1198 species

Abstract: Population limitation is a fundamental tenet of ecology, but the relative roles of exogenous and endogenous mechanisms remain unquantified for most species. Here we used multi-model inference (MMI), a form of model averaging, based on information theory (Akaike's Information Criterion) to evaluate the relative strength of evidence for density-dependent and density-independent population dynamical models in long-term abundance time series of 1198 species. We also compared the MMI results to more classic methods for detecting density dependence: Neyman-Pearson hypothesis-testing and best-model selection using the Bayesian Information Criterion or cross-validation. Using MMI on our large database, we show that density dependence is a pervasive feature of population dynamics (median MMI support for density dependence = 74.7–92.2%), and that this holds across widely different taxa. The weight of evidence for density dependence varied among species but increased consistently with the number of generations monitored. Best-model selection methods yielded similar results to MMI (a density-dependent model was favored in 66.2–93.9% of species time series), while the hypothesis-testing methods detected density dependence less frequently (32.6–49.8%). There were no obvious differences in the prevalence of density dependence across major taxonomic groups under any of the statistical methods used. These results underscore the value of using multiple modes of analysis to quantify the relative empirical support for a set of working hypotheses that encompass a range of realistic population dynamical behaviors.

Elevated CO2 stimulates net accumulations of carbon and nitrogen in land ecosystems: a meta-analysis.

Abstract: The capability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon (C) plays a critical role in regulating future climatic change yet depends on nitrogen (N) availability. To predict long-term ecosystem C storage, it is essential to examine whether soil N becomes progressively limiting as C and N are sequestered in long-lived plant biomass and soil organic matter. A critical parameter to indicate the long-term progressive N limitation (PNL) is net change in ecosystem N content in association with C accumulation in plant and soil pools under elevated CO2. We compiled data from 104 published papers that study C and N dynamics at ambient and elevated CO2. The compiled database contains C contents, N contents, and C:N ratio in various plant and soil pools, and root:shoot ratio. Averaged C and N pool sizes in plant and soil all significantly increase at elevated CO2 in comparison to those at ambient CO2, ranging from a 5% increase in shoot N content to a 32% increase in root C content. The C and N contents in litter pools are consistently higher in elevated than ambient CO2 among all the surveyed studies whereas C and N contents in the other pools increase in some studies and decrease in other studies. The high variability in CO2-induced changes in C and N pool sizes results from diverse responses of various C and N processes to elevated CO2. Averaged C:N ratios are higher by 3% in litter and soil pools and 11% in root and shoot pools at elevated relative to ambient CO2. Elevated CO2 slightly increases root:shoot ratio. The net N accumulation in plant and soil pools at least helps prevent complete down-regulation of, and likely supports, long-term CO2 stimulation of C sequestration. The concomitant C and N accumulations in response to rising atmospheric CO2 may reflect intrinsic nature of ecosystem development as revealed before by studies of succession over hundreds to millions of years.

Leaf traits are good predictors of plant performance across 53 rain forest species

Abstract: We compared the leaf traits and plant performance of 53 co-occurring tree species in a semi-evergreen tropical moist forest community. The species differed in all leaf traits analyzed: leaf life span varied 11-fold among species, specific leaf area 5-fold, mass-based nitrogen 3-fold, mass-based assimilation rate 13-fold, mass-based respiration rate 15-fold, stomatal conductance 8-fold, and photosynthetic water use efficiency 4-fold. Photosynthetic traits were strongly coordinated, and specific leaf area predicted mass-based rates of assimilation and respiration; leaf life span predicted many other leaf characteristics. Leaf traits were closely associated with growth, survival, and light requirement of the species. Leaf investment strategies varied on a continuum trading off short-term carbon gain against long-term leaf persistence that, in turn, is linked to variation in whole-plant growth and survival. Leaf traits were good predictors of plant performance, both in gaps and in the forest understory. High growth in gaps is promoted by cheap, short-lived, and physiologically active leaves. High survival in the forest understory is enhanced by the formation of long-lived well protected leaves that reduce biomass loss by herbivory, mechanical disturbance, or leaf turnover. Leaf traits underlay this growth-survival trade-off; species with short-lived, physiologically active leaves have high growth but low survival. This continuum in leaf traits, through its effect on plant performance, in turn gives rise to a continuum in species' light requirements.

A framework for understanding ecological traps and an evaluation of existing evidence.

Abstract: When an animal settles preferentially in a habitat within which it does poorly relative to other available habitats, it is said to have been caught in an "ecological trap" Although the theoretical possibility that animals may be so trapped is widely recognized, the absence of a clear mechanistic understanding of what constitutes a trap means that much of the literature cited as support for the idea may be weak, at best Here, we develop a conceptual model to explain how an ecological trap might work, outline the specific criteria that are necessary for demonstrating the existence of an ecological trap, and provide tools for researchers to use in detecting ecological traps We then review the existing literature and summarize the state of empirical evidence for the existence of traps Our conceptual model suggests that there are two basic kinds of ecological traps and three mechanisms by which traps may be created To this point in time, there are still only a few solid empirical examples of ecological traps in the published literature (although those few examples suggest that both types of traps and all three of the predicted mechanisms do exist in nature) Therefore, ecological traps are either rare in nature, are difficult to detect, or both An improved library of empirical studies will be essential if we are to develop a more synthetic understanding of the mechanisms that can trigger maladaptive behavior in general and the specific conditions under which ecological traps might occur

Coexistence of the niche and neutral perspectives in community ecology.

Abstract: The neutral theory for community structure and biodiversity is dependent on the assumption that species are equivalent to each other in all important ecological respects. We explore what this concept of equivalence means in ecological communities, how such species may arise evolutionarily, and how the possibility of ecological equivalents relates to previous ideas about niche differentiation. We also show that the co-occurrence of ecologically similar or equivalent species is not incompatible with niche theory as has been supposed, because niche relations can sometimes favor coexistence of similar species. We argue that both evolutionary and ecological processes operate to promote the introduction and to sustain the persistence of ecologically similar and in many cases nearly equivalent species embedded in highly structured food webs. Future work should focus on synthesizing niche and neutral perspectives rather than dichotomously debating whether neutral or niche models provide better explanations for community structure and biodiversity.

Plant defense syndromes.

Abstract: Given that a plant's defensive strategy against herbivory is never likely to be a single trait, we develop the concept of plant defense syndromes, where association with specific ecological interactions can result in convergence on suites of covarying defensive traits. Defense syndromes can be studied within communities of diverse plant species as well as within clades of closely related species. In either case, theory predicts that plant defense traits can consistently covary across species, due to shared evolutionary ancestry or due to adaptive convergence. We examined potential defense syndromes in 24 species of milkweeds (Asclepias spp.) in a field experiment. Employing phylogenetically independent contrasts, we found few correlations between seven defensive traits, no bivariate trade-offs, and notable positive correlations between trichome density and latex production, and between C:N ratio and leaf toughness. We then used a hierarchical cluster analysis to produce a phenogram of defense trait similarity among the 24 species. This analysis revealed three distinct clusters of species. The defense syndromes of these species clusters are associated with either low nutritional quality or a balance of higher nutritional quality coupled with physical or chemical defenses. The phenogram based on defense traits was not congruent, however, with a molecular phylogeny of the group, suggesting convergence on defense syndromes. Finally, we examined the performance of monarch butterfly caterpillars on the 24 milkweed species in the field; monarch growth and survival did not differ on plants in the three syndromes, although multiple regression revealed that leaf trichomes and toughness significantly reduced caterpillar growth. The discovery of convergent plant defense syndromes can be used as a framework to ask questions about how abiotic environments, communities of herbivores, and biogeography are associated with particular defense strategies of plants.

Consumer–resource body-size relationships in natural food webs

Abstract: It has been suggested that differences in body size between consumer and resource species may have important implications for interaction strengths, population dynamics, and eventually food web structure, function, and evolution. Still, the general distribution of consumer-'resource body-size ratios in real ecosystems, and whether they vary systematically among habitats or broad taxonomic groups, is poorly understood. Using a unique global database on consumer and resource body sizes, we show that the mean body-size ratios of aquatic herbivorous and detritivorous consumers are several orders of magnitude larger than those of carnivorous predators. Carnivorous predator-prey body-size ratios vary across different habitats and predator and prey types (invertebrates, ectotherm, and endotherm vertebrates). Predator-prey body-size ratios are on average significantly higher (1) in freshwater habitats than in marine or terrestrial habitats, (2) for vertebrate than for invertebrate predators, and (3) for invertebrate than for ectotherm vertebrate prey. If recent studies that relate body-size ratios to interaction strengths are general, our results suggest that mean consumer-resource interaction strengths may vary systematically across different habitat categories and consumer types.

Spatial modeling in ecology: the flexibility of eigenfunction spatial analyses.

Abstract: Recently, analytical approaches based on the eigenfunctions of spatial configuration matrices have been proposed in order to consider explicitly spatial predictors. The present study demonstrates the usefulness of eigenfunctions in spatial modeling applied to ecological problems and shows equivalencies of and differences between the two current implementations of this methodology. The two approaches in this category are the distance-based (DB) eigenvector maps proposed by P. Legendre and his colleagues, and spatial filtering based upon geographic connectivity matrices (i.e., topology-based; CB) developed by D. A. Griffith and his colleagues. In both cases, the goal is to create spatial predictors that can be easily incorporated into conventional regression models. One important advantage of these two approaches over any other spatial approach is that they provide a flexible tool that allows the full range of general and generalized linear modeling theory to be applied to ecological and geographical problems in the presence of nonzero spatial autocorrelation.

Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in british columbia

Abstract: A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species. Four orthogonal canonical discriminant functions were used to describe the realized climate space for British Columbia's ecosystems and to model portions of the realized niche space for tree species under current and predicted future climates. This conceptually simple model is capable of predicting species ranges at high spatial resolutions far beyond the study area, including outlying populations and southern range limits for many species. We analyzed how the realized climate space of current ecosystems changes in extent, elevation, and spatial distribution under climate change scenarios and evaluated the implications for potential tree species habitat. Tree species with their northern range limit in British Columbia gain potential habitat at a pace of at least 100 km per decade, common hardwoods appear to be generally unaffected by climate change, and some of the most important conifer species in British Columbia are expected to lose a large portion of their suitable habitat. The extent of spatial redistribution of realized climate space for ecosystems is considerable, with currently important sub-boreal and montane climate regions rapidly disappearing. Local predictions of changes to tree species frequencies were generated as a basis for systematic surveys of biological response to climate change.

Tree species effects on decomposition and forest floor dynamics in a common garden

Abstract: We studied the effects of tree species on leaf litter decomposition and forest floor dynamics in a common garden experiment of 14 tree species (Abies alba, Acer platanoides, Acer pseudoplatanus, Betula pendula, Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica, Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Quercus robur, Quercus rubra, and Tilia cordata) in southwestern Poland. We used three simultaneous litter bag experiments to tease apart species effects on decomposition via leaf litter chemistry vs. effects on the decomposition environment. Decomposition rates of litter in its plot of origin were negatively correlated with litter lignin and positively correlated with mean annual soil temperature (MATsoil) across species. Likewise, decomposition of a common litter type across all plots was positively associated with MATsoil, and decomposition of litter from all plots in a common plot was negatively related to litter lignin but positively related to litter Ca. Taken together, these results indicate that tree species influenced microbial decomposition primarily via differences in litter lignin (and secondarily, via differences in litter Ca), with high-lignin (and low-Ca) species decomposing most slowly, and by affecting MATsoil, with warmer plots exhibiting more rapid decomposition. In addition to litter bag experiments, we examined forest floor dynamics in each plot by mass balance, since earthworms were a known component of these forest stands and their access to litter in litter bags was limited. Forest floor removal rates estimated from mass balance were positively related to leaf litter Ca (and unrelated to decay rates obtained using litter bags). Litter Ca, in turn, was positively related to the abundance of earthworms, particularly Lumbricus terrestris. Thus, while species influence microbially mediated decomposition primarily through differences in litter lignin, differences among species in litter Ca are most important in determining species effects on forest floor leaf litter dynamics among these 14 tree species, apparently because of the influence of litter Ca on earthworm activity. The overall influence of these tree species on leaf litter decomposition via effects on both microbial and faunal processing will only become clear when we can quantify the decay dynamics of litter that is translocated belowground by earthworms.

Habitat loss, trophic collapse, and the decline of ecosystem services.

Abstract: The provisioning of sustaining goods and services that we obtain from natural ecosystems is a strong economic justification for the conservation of biological diversity. Understanding the relationship between these goods and services and changes in the size, arrangement, and quality of natural habitats is a fundamental challenge of natural resource management. In this paper, we describe a new approach to assessing the implications of habitat loss for loss of ecosystem services by examining how the provision of different ecosystem services is dominated by species from different trophic levels. We then develop a mathematical model that illustrates how declines in habitat quality and quantity lead to sequential losses of trophic diversity. The model suggests that declines in the provisioning of services will initially be slow but will then accelerate as species from higher trophic levels are lost at faster rates. Comparison of these patterns with empirical examples of ecosystem collapse (and assembly) suggest similar patterns occur in natural systems impacted by anthropogenic change. In general, ecosystem goods and services provided by species in the upper trophic levels will be lost before those provided by species lower in the food chain. The decrease in terrestrial food chain length predicted by the model parallels that observed in the oceans following overexploitation. The large area requirements of higher trophic levels make them as susceptible to extinction as they are in marine systems where they are systematically exploited. Whereas the traditional species-area curve suggests that 50% of species are driven extinct by an order-of-magnitude decline in habitat abundance, this magnitude of loss may represent the loss of an entire trophic level and all the ecosystem services performed by the species on this trophic level.

Phylogenetic structure of Floridian plant communities depends on taxonomic and spatial scale

Abstract: Consideration of the scale at which communities are defined both taxonomically and spatially can reconcile apparently contradictory results on the extent to which plants show phylogenetic niche conservatism. In plant communities in north central Florida, we collected species abundances in 55 0.1-ha plots in several state parks. When communities were defined narrowly to include a single phylogenetic lineage, such as Quercus, Pinus, or Ilex, neighbors tended to be less related than expected (phylogenetic overdispersion) or there was no pattern. If the same communities were defined more broadly, such as when all seed plants were included, neighbors tended to be more related than expected (phylogenetic clustering). These results provide evidence that species interactions among close relatives influence community structure, but they also show that niche conservatism is increasingly evident as communities are defined to include greater phylogenetic diversity. We also found that, as the spatial scale is increased to encompass greater environmental heterogeneity, niche conservatism emerges as the dominant pattern. We then examined patterns of trait evolution in relation to trait similarity within communities for 11 functional traits for a single phylogenetic lineage (Quercus) and for all woody plants. Among the oaks, convergent evolution of traits important for environmental filtering contributes to the observed pattern of phylogenetic overdispersion. At the broader taxonomic scale, traits tend to be conserved, giving rise to phylogenetic clustering. The shift from overdispersion to clustering can be explained by the increasing conservatism of traits at broader phylogenetic scales.

Neutral theory and the evolution of ecological equivalence

Abstract: Since the publication of the unified neutral theory in 2001, there has been much discussion of the theory, pro and con. The hypothesis of ecological equivalence is the fundamental yet controversial idea behind neutral theory. Assuming trophically similar species are demographically alike (symmetric) on a per capita basis is only an approximation, but it is equivalent to asking: How many of the patterns of ecological communities are the result of species similarities, rather than of species differences? The strategy behind neutral theory is to see how far one can get with the simplification of assuming ecological equivalence before introducing more complexity. In another paper, I review the empirical evidence that led me to hypothesize ecological equivalence among many of the tree species in the species-rich tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI). In this paper, I develop a simple model for the evolution of ecological equivalence or niche convergence, using as an example evolution of the suite of life history traits characteristic of shade tolerant tropical tree species. Although the model is simple, the conclusions from it seem likely to be robust. I conclude that ecological equivalence for resource use are likely to evolve easily and often, especially in species-rich communities that are dispersal and recruitment limited. In the case of the BCI forest, tree species are strongly dispersal- and recruitment-limited, not only because of restricted seed dispersal, but also because of low recruitment success due to heavy losses of the seedling stages to predators and pathogens and other abiotic stresses such as drought. These factors and the high species richness of the community strongly reduce the potential for competitive exclusion of functionally equivalent or nearly equivalent species.

The role of environmental and spatial processes in structuring lake communities from bacteria to fish.

Abstract: We assessed the relative roles of local environmental conditions and dispersal on community structure in a landscape of lakes for the major trophic groups. We use taxonomic presence-absence and abundance data for bacteria, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish from 18 lakes in southern Quebec, Canada. The question of interest was whether communities composed of organisms with more limited dispersal abilities, because of size and life history (zooplankton and fish) would show a different effect of lake distribution than communities composed of good dispersers (bacteria and phytoplankton). We examine the variation in structure attributable to local environmental (i.e., lake chemical and physical variables) vs. dispersal predictors (i.e., overland and watercourse distances between lakes) using variation partitioning techniques. Overall, we show that less motile species (crustacean zooplankton and fish) are better predicted by spatial factors than by local environmental ones. Furthermore, we show that for zooplankton abundances, both overland and watercourse dispersal pathways are equally strong, though they may select for different components of the community, while for fish, only watercourses are relevant dispersal pathways. These results suggest that crustacean zooplankton and fish are more constrained by dispersal and therefore more likely to operate as a metacommunity than are bacteria and phytoplankton within this studied landscape.

Architecture of 54 moist-forest tree species: traits, trade-offs, and functional groups

Abstract: Tree architecture is an important determinant of the height extension, light capture, and mechanical stability of trees, and it allows species to exploit the vertical height gradient in the forest canopy and horizontal light gradients at the forest floor. Tropical tree species partition these gradients through variation in adult stature (Hmax) and light demand. In this study we compare 22 architectural traits for 54 Bolivian moist-forest tree species. We evaluate how architectural traits related to Hmax vary with tree size, and we present a conceptual scheme in which we combine the two axes into four different functional groups. Interspecific correlations between architecture and Hmax varied strongly from negative to positive, depending on the reference sizes used. Stem height was positively related to Hmax at larger reference diameters (14-80 cm). Species height vs. diameter curves often flattened toward their upper ends in association with reproductive maturity for species of all sizes. Thus, adult understory trees were typically shorter than similar-diameter juveniles of larger species. Crown area was negatively correlated with Hmax at small reference heights and positively correlated at larger reference heights (15-34 m). Wide crowns allow the small understory species to intercept light over a large area at the expense of a reduced height growth. Crown length was negatively correlated with Hmax at intermediate reference heights (4-14 m). A long crown enables small understory species to maximize light interception in a light-limited environment. Light-demanding species were characterized by orthotropic stems and branches, large leaves, and a monolayer leaf arrangement. They realized an efficient height growth through the formation of narrow and shallow crowns. Light demand turned out to be a much stronger predictor of tree architecture than Hmax, probably because of the relatively low, open, and semi-evergreen canopy at the research site. The existence of four functional groups (shade-tolerant, partial-shade-tolerant, and long- and short-lived pioneer) was confirmed by the principal component and discriminant analysis. Both light demand and Hmax capture the major variation in functional traits found among tropical rain forest tree species, and the two-way classification scheme provides a straightforward model to understand niche differentiation in tropical forests.

Fundamental trade-offs generating the worldwide leaf economics spectrum

Abstract: Recent work has identified a worldwide ''economic'' spectrum of correlated leaf traits that affects global patterns of nutrient cycling and primary productivity and that is used to calibrate vegetation-climate models. The correlation patterns are displayed by species from the arctic to the tropics and are largely independent of growth form or phy- logeny. This generality suggests that unidentified fundamental constraints control the return of photosynthates on investments of nutrients and dry mass in leaves. Using novel graph theoretic methods and structural equation modeling, we show that the relationships among these variables can best be explained by assuming (1) a necessary trade-off between al- location to structural tissues versus liquid phase processes and (2) an evolutionary trade- off between leaf photosynthetic rates, construction costs, and leaf longevity.

The Growth–Defense Trade‐Off And Habitat Specialization By Plants In Amazonian Forests

Abstract: Tropical forests include a diversity of habitats, which has led to specialization in plants. Near Iquitos, in the Peruvian Amazon, nutrient-rich clay forests surround nutrient-poor white-sand forests, each harboring a unique composition of habitat specialist trees. We tested the hypothesis that the combination of impoverished soils and herbivory creates strong natural selection for plant defenses in white-sand forest, while rapid growth is favored in clay forests. Recently, we reported evidence from a reciprocal-transplant experiment that manipulated the presence of herbivores and involved 20 species from six genera, including phylogenetically independent pairs of closely related white-sand and clay specialists. When protected from herbivores, clay specialists exhibited faster growth rates than white-sand specialists in both habitats. But, when unprotected, white-sand specialists outperformed clay specialists in white- sand habitat, and clay specialists outperformed white-sand specialists in clay habitat. Here we test further the hypothesis that the growth-defense trade-off contributes to habitat specialization by comparing patterns of growth, herbivory, and defensive traits in these same six genera of white-sand and clay specialists. While the probability of herbivore attack did not differ between the two habitats, an artificial defoliation experiment showed that the impact of herbivory on plant mortality was significantly greater in white-sand forests. We quantified the amount of terpenes, phenolics, leaf toughness, and available foliar protein for the plants in the experiment. Different genera invested in different defensive strategies, and we found strong evidence for phylogenetic constraint in defense type. Overall, however, we found significantly higher total defense investment for white-sand specialists, relative to their clay specialist congeners. Furthermore, herbivore resistance consistently exhibited a significant trade-off against growth rate in each of the six phylogenetically independent species-pairs. These results confirm theoretical predictions that a trade-off exists between growth rate and defense investment, causing white-sand and clay specialists to evolve divergent strategies. We propose that the growth-defense trade-off is universal and provides an important mechanism by which herbivores govern plant distribution patterns across resource gradients.

Herbivore vs. nutrient control of marine primary producers: context-dependent effects.

Abstract: Pervasive overharvesting of consumers and anthropogenic nutrient loading are changing the strengths of top-down and bottom-up forces in ecosystems worldwide. Thus, identifying the relative and synergistic roles of these forces and how they differ across habitats, ecosystems, or primary-producer types is increasingly important for understanding how communities are structured. We used factorial meta-analysis of 54 field experiments that orthogonally manipulated herbivore pressure and nutrient loading to quantify consumer and nutrient effects on primary producers in benthic marine habitats. Across all experiments and producer types, herbivory and nutrient enrichment both significantly affected primary-producer abundance. They also interacted to create greater nutrient enrichment effects in the absence of herbivores, suggesting that loss of herbivores produces more dramatic effects of nutrient loading. Herbivores consistently had stronger effects than did nutrient enrichment for both tropical macroalgae and seagrasses. The strong effects of herbivory but limited effects of nutrient enrichment on tropical macroalgae suggest that suppression of herbivore populations has played a larger role than eutrophication in driving the phase shift from coral- to macroalgal-dominated reefs in many areas, especially the Caribbean. For temperate macroalgae and benthic microalgae, the effects of top-down and bottom-up forces varied as a function of the inherent productivity of the ecosystem. For these algal groups, nutrient enrichment appeared to have stronger effects in high- vs. low-productivity systems, while herbivores exerted a stronger top-down effect in low-productivity systems. Effects of herbivores vs. nutrients also varied among algal functional groups (crustose algae, upright macroalgae, and filamentous algae), within a functional group between temperate and tropical systems, and according to the metric used to measure producer abundance. These analyses suggest that human alteration of food webs and nutrient availability have significant effects on primary producers but that the effects vary among latitudes and primary producers, and with the inherent productivity of ecosystems.

Extinction debt of forest plants persists for more than a century following habitat fragmentation.

Abstract: Following habitat fragmentation individual habitat patches may lose species over time as they pay off their ''extinction debt.'' Species with relatively low rates of population extinction and colonization (''slow'' species) may maintain extinction debts for particularly prolonged periods, but few data are available to test this prediction. We analyzed two unusually detailed data sets on forest plant distributions and land-use history from Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, and Vlaams-Brabant, Belgium, to test for an extinction debt in relation to species-specific extinction and colonization rates. Logistic regression models predicting the presence-absence of 36 plant species were first parameterized using data from Lincolnshire, where forest cover has been relatively low (;5-8%) for the past 1000 years. Consistent with extinction debt theory, for relatively slow species (but not fast species) these models systematically underpredicted levels of patch occupancy in Vlaams- Brabant, where forest cover was reduced from ;25% to ,10% between 1775 and 1900 (it is presently 6.5%). As a consequence, the ability of the Lincolnshire models to predict patch occupancy in Vlaams-Brabant was worse for slow than for fast species. Thus, more than a century after forest fragmentation reached its current level an extinction debt persists for species with low rates of population turnover.

Estimating species richness and accumulation by modeling species occurrence and detectability

Abstract: A statistical model is developed for estimating species richness and accumulation by formulating these community-level attributes as functions of model-based estimators of species occurrence while accounting for imperfect detection of individual species. The model requires a sampling protocol wherein repeated observations are made at a collection of sample locations selected to be representative of the community. This temporal replication provides the data needed to resolve the ambiguity between species absence and nondetection when species are unobserved at sample locations. Estimates of species richness and accumulation are computed for two communities, an avian community and a butterfly community. Our model-based estimates suggest that detection failures in many bird species were attributed to low rates of occurrence, as opposed to simply low rates of detection. We estimate that the avian community contains a substantial number of uncommon species and that species richness greatly exceeds the number of species actually observed in the sample. In fact, predictions of species accumulation suggest that even doubling the number of sample locations would not have revealed all of the species in the community. In contrast, our analysis of the butterfly community suggests that many species are relatively common and that the estimated richness of species in the community is nearly equal to the number of species actually detected in the sample. Our predictions of species accumulation suggest that the number of sample locations actually used in the butterfly survey could have been cut in half and the asymptotic richness of species still would have been attained. Our approach of developing occurrence-based summaries of communities while allowing for imperfect detection of species is broadly applicable and should prove useful in the design and analysis of surveys of biodiversity.

Interactions of bacteria and fungi on decomposing litter: differential extracellular enzyme activities

Abstract: Fungi and bacteria are key agents in plant litter decomposition in freshwater ecosystems. However, the specific roles of these two groups and their interactions during the decomposition process are unclear. We compared the growth and patterns of degradative enzymes expressed by communities of bacteria and fungi grown separately and in coexistence on Phragmites leaves. The two groups displayed both synergistic and antagonistic interactions. Bacteria grew better together with fungi than alone. In addition, there was a negative effect of bacteria on fungi, which appeared to be caused by suppression of fungal growth and biomass accrual rather than specifically affecting enzyme activity. Fungi growing alone had a high capacity for the decomposition of plant polymers such as lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose. In contrast, enzyme activities were in general low when bacteria grew alone, and the activity of key enzymes in the degradation of lignin and cellulose (phenol oxidase and cellobiohydrolase) was undetectable in the bacteria-only treatment. Still, biomass-specific activities of most enzymes were higher in bacteria than in fungi. The low total activity and growth of bacteria in the absence of fungi in spite of apparent high enzymatic efficiency during the degradation of many substrates suggest that fungi provide the bacteria with resources that the bacteria were not able to acquire on their own, most probably intermediate decomposition products released by fungi that could be used by bacteria.

Model weights and the foundations of multimodel inference

Abstract: Statistical thinking in wildlife biology and ecology has been profoundly influenced by the introduction of AIC (Akaike's information criterion) as a tool for model selection and as a basis for model averaging. In this paper, we advocate the Bayesian paradigm as a broader framework for multimodel inference, one in which model averaging and model selection are naturally linked, and in which the performance of AIC-based tools is naturally evaluated. Prior model weights implicitly associated with the use of AIC are seen to highly favor complex models: in some cases, all but the most highly parameterized models in the model set are virtually ignored a priori. We suggest the usefulness of the weighted BIC (Bayesian information criterion) as a computationally simple alternative to AIC, based on explicit selection of prior model probabilities rather than acceptance of default priors associated with AIC. We note, however, that both procedures are only approximate to the use of exact Bayes factors. We discuss and illustrate technical difficulties associated with Bayes factors, and suggest approaches to avoiding these difficulties in the context of model selection for a logistic regression. Our example highlights the predisposition of AIC weighting to favor complex models and suggests a need for caution in using the BIC for computing approximate posterior model weights.

The phylogenetic structure of a neotropical forest tree community

Abstract: Numerous ecological and evolutionary processes are thought to play a role in maintaining the high plant species diversity of tropical forests. An understanding of the phylogenetic structure of an ecological community can provide insights into the relative importance of different processes structuring that community. The objectives of this study were to measure the phylogenetic structure of Neotropical forest tree communities in the Forest Dynamics Plot (FDP) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to determine how the phylogenetic structure of tree communities varied among spatial scales and habitats within the FDP, and to study the effects of null-model choice on estimates of community phylogenetic structure. We measured community phylogenetic structure for tree species occurring together in quadrats ranging in size from 10 x 10 m to 100 X 100 m in the FDP. We estimated phylogenetic structure by comparing observed phylogenetic distances among species to the distribution of phylogenetic distances for null communities generated using two different null models. A null model that did not maintain observed species occurrence frequencies tended to find nonrandom community phylogenetic structure, even for random data. Using a null model that maintained observed species frequencies in null communities, the average phylogenetic structure of tree communities in the FDP was close to random at all spatial scales examined, but more quadrats than expected contained species that were phylogenetically clustered or overdispersed, and phylogenetic structure varied among habitats. In young forests and plateau habitats, communities were phylogenetically clustered, meaning that trees were more closely related to their neighbors than expected, while communities in swamp and slope habitats were phylogenetically overdispersed, meaning that trees were more distantly related to their neighbors than expected. Phylogenetic clustering suggests the importance of environmental filtering of phylogenetically conserved traits in young forests and plateau habitats, but the phylogenetic overdispersion observed in other habitats has several possible explanations, including variation in the strength of ecological processes among habitats or the phylogenetic history of niches, traits, and habitat associations. Future studies will need to include information on species traits in order to explain the variation in phylogenetic structure among habitats in tropical forests.

Rain forest fragmentation and the proliferation of successional trees

Abstract: The effects of habitat fragmentation on diverse tropical tree communities are poorly understood. Over a 20-year period we monitored the density of 52 tree species in nine predominantly successional genera (Annona, Bellucia, Cecropia, Croton, Goupia, Jacaranda, Miconia, Pourouma, Vismia) in fragmented and continuous Amazonian forests. We also evaluated the relative importance of soil, topographic, forest dynamic, and landscape variables in explaining the abundance and species composition of successional trees. Data were collected within 66 permanent 1-ha plots within a large (approximately 1000 km2) experimental landscape, with forest fragments ranging from 1 to 100 ha in area. Prior to forest fragmentation, successional trees were uncommon, typically comprising 2-3% of all trees (> or =10 cm diameter at breast height [1.3 m above the ground surface]) in each plot. Following fragmentation, the density and basal area of successional trees increased rapidly. By 13-17 years after fragmentation, successional trees had tripled in abundance in fragment and edge plots and constituted more than a quarter of all trees in some plots. Fragment age had strong, positive effects on the density and basal area of successional trees, with no indication of a plateau in these variables, suggesting that successional species could become even more abundant in fragments over time. Nonetheless, the 52 species differed greatly in their responses to fragmentation and forest edges. Some disturbance-favoring pioneers (e.g., Cecropia sciadophylla, Vismia guianensis, V. amazonica, V. bemerguii, Miconia cf. crassinervia) increased by >1000% in density on edge plots, whereas over a third (19 of 52) of all species remained constant or declined in numbers. Species responses to fragmentation were effectively predicted by their median growth rate in nearby intact forest, suggesting that faster-growing species have a strong advantage in forest fragments. An ordination analysis revealed three main gradients in successional-species composition across our study area. Species gradients were most strongly influenced by the standlevel rate of tree mortality on each plot and by the number of nearby forest edges. Species-composition also varied significantly among different cattle ranches, which differed in their surrounding matrices and disturbance histories. These same variables were also the best predictors of total successional-tree abundance and species richness. Successional-tree assemblages in fragment interior plots (>150 m from edge), which are subjected to fragment area effects but not edge effects, did not differ significantly from those in intact forest, indicating that area effects per se had little influence on successional trees. Soils and topography also had little discernable effect on these species. Collectively, our results indicate that successional-tree species proliferate rapidly in fragmented Amazonian forests, largely as a result of chronically elevated tree mortality near forest edges and possibly an increased seed rain from successional plants growing in nearby degraded habitats. The proliferation of fast-growing successional trees and correlated decline of old-growth trees will have important effects on species composition, forest dynamics, carbon storage, and nutrient cycling in fragmented forests.

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Abstract: Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Leaf structural diversity is related to hydraulic capacity in tropical rain forest trees

Abstract: The hydraulic resistance of the leaf (R1) is a major bottleneck in the whole plant water transport pathway and may thus be linked with the enormous variation in leaf structure and function among tropical rain forest trees. A previous study found that R1 varied by an order of magnitude across 10 tree species of Panamanian tropical lowland rain forest. Here, correlations were tested between R1 and 24 traits relating to leaf venation and mesophyll structure, and to gross leaf form. Across species, R1 was related to both venation architecture and mesophyll structure. R1 was positively related to the theoretical axial resistivity of the midrib, determined from xylem conduit numbers and dimensions, and R1 was negatively related to venation density in nine of 10 species. R1 was also negatively related to both palisade mesophyll thickness and to the ratio of palisade to spongy mesophyll. By contrast, numerous leaf traits were independent of R1, including area, shape, thickness, and density, demonstrating that leaves can be diverse in gross structure without intrinsic trade-offs in hydraulic capacity. Variation in both R1-linked and R1-independent traits related strongly to regeneration irradiance, indicating the potential importance of both types of traits in establishment ecology.

Empirical evaluation of neutral theory.

Abstract: We describe a general framework for testing neutral theory. We summarize similarities and differences between ten different versions of neutral theory. Two central predictions of neutral theory are that species abundance distributions will follow a zero-sum multinomial distribution and that community composition will change over space due to dispersal limitation. We review all published empirical tests of neutral theory. With the exception of one type of test, all tests fail to support neutral theory. We identify and perform several new tests. Specifically, we develop a set of best practices for testing the fit of the zero-sum multinomial (ZSM) vs. a lognormal null hypothesis and apply this to a data set, concluding that the lognormal outperforms neutral theory on robust tests. We explore whether a priori parameterization of neutral theory is possible, and we conclude that it is not. We show that non-curve-fitting predictions readily derived from neutral theory are easily falsifiable. In toto, there is a current overwhelming weight of evidence against neutral theory. We suggest some next steps for neutral theory.

Stress and the city: Urbanization and its effects on the stress physiology in European Blackbirds

Abstract: Animals colonizing cities are exposed to many novel and potentially stressful situations. There is evidence that chronic stress can cause deleterious effects. Hence, wild animals would suffer from city life unless they adjusted their stress response to the conditions in a city. Here we show that European Blackbirds born in a city have a lower stress response than their forest conspecifics. We hand-raised urban and forest-living individuals of that species under identical conditions and tested their corticosterone stress response at an age of 5, 8, and 11 months. The results suggest that the difference is genetically determined, although early developmental effects cannot be excluded. Either way, the results support the idea that urbanization creates a shift in coping styles by changing the stress physiology of animals. The reduced stress response could be ubiquitous and, presumably, necessary for all animals that thrive in ecosystems exposed to frequent anthropogenic disturbances, such as those in urban areas.