Showing papers in "Economic Policy in 1998"

Tales of fiscal adjustment

Abstract: Fiscal adjustments Why they can be expansionary This paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from the early 1960s to today. The results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces (non‐Keynesian) expansionary effects. One interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand. Wealth rises when future tax burdens decline, and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate. Both consumption and investment rise. For this effect to produce an expansion, the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up. Another interpretation emphasizes the supply side. Typically, a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short‐lived. To be long lasting, it must include cuts in public employment, transfers and government wages. To be politically possible, such a policy must be supported by trade unions. These measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side. Based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment, this article provides cautious support to the supply‐side view, without denying a more limited role for the demand‐side channel. — Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna

The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?

Abstract: Stability Pact More than a minor nuisance? The Stability and Growth Pact will lead member countries to aim for cyclically balanced budgets. Until this steady state is reached, Europe will continue its efforts at de.cit cutting. While so doing, politicians are less likely to undertake the dif.cult labour market reforms that are really needed. Is further .scal retrenchment wise? The paper reviews the reasons that have been advanced in favour of a Stability Pact and .nds them wanting. The most serious justi.cations, such as the systemic risk of bank crisis following a government.s failure to service its debt, can be better dealt with in other ways: for example, by prudential limits on banks. exposure to public debts. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the macroeconomic costs of the Stability Pact, while sizeable, are not as dangerous as often believed. The costs will be barely visible once the steady state is reached. The true macroeconomic costs are front loaded; they concern the next few years, after a decade already dominated by convergence efforts. — Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz

The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank

Abstract: Immediate challenges for the ECB Issues in formulating a single monetary policy This paper discusses a number of issues that the newly constituted board of the ECB will face early on. Conducting a European monetary policy will be very different from living under the protective umbrella of the Bundesbank. We discuss voting on the ECB board, and argue that the ability to communicate with the public will be critical for the success of the new institution. We also ask how a single monetary policy – a common change in the interest rate controlled by the ECB – is transmitted to the economy of each member country. We show that the monetary process differs significantly inside EMU: initially, at least, the cost of a disinflation episode could fall disproportionately on a few member countries, those with both a financial structure that spreads a monetary contraction widely and a wage price structure that is relatively inflexible. This process, moreover, is sure to evolve, in part as a result of financial industry restructuring already under way, but in part accentuated by the common money. Furthermore, as the ʻLucas principleʼ suggests, the wage price process itself will adapt to the changing focus of European monetary policy. —Rudi Dornbusch, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi

Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy

Abstract: Asymmetric shocks Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy How will countries handle idiosyncratic macroeconomic shocks under the single currency? Since the regional adjustment patterns currently prevailing within European currency unions are likely to prevail at the national level under the single currency, looking at the ways in which European countries react to internally asymmetric shocks today provides a good preview for the answer to that question. In this paper, we compare the USA with Germany, Italy and the UK, and with Canada, which is closer to Europe than the USA in its labour market and fiscal institutions. Europe's (and to some extent Canada's) model of regional response differs from that of the USA. Changes in regional real exchange rates are small in all countries. Outside of the USA, however, there is more reliance on interregional transfer payments, less on labour migration, and the pace of regional adjustment appears to be slower. If EMU aims at the same degree of economic and social cohesion that its constituent nations enjoy today, this suggests that its members may find it hard to resist the eventual extension of existing EU mechanisms of income redistribution - a transfer union. We propose an alternative strategy based on a relaxed Stability Pact, further strictures against central EU borrowing, labour market and fiscal reform, and the issuance by individual member states of debt indexed to nominal GDP. — Maurice Obstfeld and Giovanni Peri

The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency

Abstract: The European Union will enter Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The development of euro financial markets and thickness externalities in the use of the euro as a means of payment will be the major factors determining the importance of the euro as an international currency. As euro securities markets become deeper and more liquid and transactions costs fall, euro assets will become more attractive, and the use of the euro as a vehicle currency will expand; the two effects interact, as we demonstrate. We use a three-region world model as a framework for alternative steady-state scenarios. With forex and securities market data, we access the plausibility of those scenarios and the implications for economic efficiency (welfare). We find that the euro may take on some of the current roles of the dollar, but the extent to which it does will depend on policy decisions and on the beliefs of market participants. The welfare analysis reveals potential quantitatively significant benefits for the euro area, at the cost of the US and (to a lesser degree) Japan. During the transition to the new equilibrium, the main effect of the introduction of the euro will come through portfolio shifts that are likely to favour an appreciation of the new currency vis-O-vis the dollar (and the yen). Whatever the likely long-run outcome, the dollar will remain quantitatively dominant for some time because of inertia and hysteresis u with multiple equilibria and likely threshold effects, we would not expect a quick transition to a new equilibrium. The early period could see considerable instability associated with the emergence of the euro, especially if the United States were to resist any decline in the international status of the dollar.

Blessing or curse? Foreign and underground demand for euro notes

Abstract: Public finance solutions to the European unemployment problem? Developing countries may hold as much as 25-30% of the $1.3 trillion OECD currency supply. Although dollar holdings appear to exceed DM holdings by a factor of four, the advent of the euro may change this balance. Indeed, by issuing large-denomination notes of 100, 200 and 500, the European Central Bank appears to be well poised to challenge the dominance of the ubiquitous US $100 note. However, large-denomination notes are also extremely popular in the OECD underground economy, which appears to hold at least 50% of the currency supply. As a result, the seigniorage revenues obtained by issuing large-denomination notes may be an accounting illusion, substantially or fully offset by losses due to increased tax evasion. Hence, the new European Central Bank may wish to consider policies that discourage underground use of currency, even at the expense of losing out on foreign demand. — Kenneth Rogoff

Does EMU need a fiscal federation

Abstract: Redistribution vs insurance Does Europe need a fiscal federation? The stabilization provided by the US federal budget has been used as an example of the adjustment mechanisms that are lacking in Europe and which are needed to make a currency area viable. This paper presents four sets of .ndings that suggest that the benefits of a European fiscal federation would be modest. First, we show that some of the previous estimates of the benefits of the US federal budget overestimate the amount of interstate insurance by a factor of 3. Second, Europe already has national tax systems which, according to our estimates, can insure more than 50% of a European fiscal federation. Third, we .nd evidence that the potential insurance benefits of a European fiscal federation have decreased over time. Fourth, there are large cross-country differences in the benefits provided by federation. We conclude that the potential to provide interregional insurance by creating a European fiscal federation is too small to compensate for the many problems associated with its design and implementation. — Antonio Fatas

Stability without a pact? Lessons from the European gold standard, 1880—1914

Abstract: Stability pacts European lessons from the gold standard The gold standard was a system of fixed exchange rates that offered little opportunity for carrying out monetary policies, short of suspending gold convertibility. Trade integration and capital mobility were very high. It is worthwhile asking whether there are useful lessons to draw for EMU from European experience during that period. One clear lesson is that debts matter. Another basic finding is that the stability of the European gold standard depended on the underlying price trend. Deflation prior to 1895 resulted in rising public debt burdens, which forced some countries to leave the system. Once gold was discovered and deflation gave way to inflation, real interest service fell, debts grew more slowly and a high degree of convergence allowed most countries to return to gold. For EMU, this result implies that stability will hinge on the ECB's policy not being too restrictive. Other lessons concern the fragility of institutions in the face of deep public finance difficulties, the risks for the single market of leaving out countries that have not fully converged, and the existence of a virtuous cycle including low real interest rates, fast growth and debt reduction — Marc Flandreau, Jacques Le Cacheux and Frederic Zumer

The competition effects of the Single Market in Europe

Abstract: The reduction in trade barriers in Europe through the Single Market Programme (SMP) was intended to increase competition in European markets, and hence welfare and efficiency. The paper examines how the SMP has affected trade patterns and what can be learnt from this regarding the impact on competitive behaviour. Combining an econometric and computable general equilibrium methodology, it is argued that (1) the SMP has indeed had a strong impact on competitive behaviour; (2) the extent of the impact depends both on changes in the intensity of competition as well as on changes in the nature of competitive interaction; (3) while all economies experience potentially large welfare gains from the SMP, it is the smaller economies that experience the larger gains, but this in turn suggests that they experience a greater degree of restructuring.

The economic analysis of lotteries

Abstract: Lotteries Determinants of ticket sales and the optimal payout rate This paper considers policy issues arising in the design, regulation and taxation of lotteries, focusing on the market for an on‐line lottery game. Demand determines who buys lottery tickets and in what quantities. The design of lotteries affects the terms on which tickets are supplied. UK data suggest that its lottery may be priced too high to maximize lottery revenue – more revenue might be raised if the proportion of sales allocated to tax and other levies were smaller. Having established the positive economics of lotteries, the paper then assesses their welfare implications. Pari‐mutuel lotteries enjoy scale economies and, as natural monopolies, are invariably run either by government agencies or a regulated licensee. I estimate consumer surplus and identify the excess burden that arises from existing (over)taxation of lotteries. The large price elasticity of demand implies that revenue raised from the lottery is raised very inefficiently. Moreover, the demand for lottery tickets is inferior (and there is some evidence that such games are contagious and addictive). So using lotteries as a vehicle for raising revenue is extremely regressive. Finally, I consider other policy implications: induced effects on charitable giving and on other forms of gambling; the impact on the government budget; perceptions of risk; and distributional considerations. —Ian Walker

European technology policy

Abstract: European technology policy Research efforts in Europe matter European countries do less research than Japan and the United States. But their lower level of research effort has more to do with the smaller markets facing European inventors than with lower research productivity. Europe has substantial research potential, in that increasing research effort in most European countries generates bigger income benefits there than increasing research effort in the United States and Japan by equivalent amounts. Research subsidies, enhanced patent protection, support for public research, higher educational achievement and increased integration are alternative routes towards exploiting this potential. These policies increase productivity not only in Europe, but also elsewhere. One problem with implementing such policies at the national level is the potential for free riding. A second possible problem with policies to promote research concerns their distributional consequences. While all countries within the European Union would benefit from increased research output, the countries that are already best at doing research, which tend to be the richer members, do best. The benefits of policies that facilitate the adoption of innovations are more evenly spread among richer and poorer countries. — Jonathan Eaton, Eva Gutierrez and Samuel Kortum

Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving

Abstract: Despite diverse trends in household saving in OECD countries, many governments are introducing tax incentives designed to boost saving by particular groups. Such schemes have been justified by many trends, including increasing income inequality, ageing populations, and greater cross-border competition. It is dangerous, however, to base policy on what is happening to aggregate household saving alone. First, personal saving should be viewed within a lifecycle context. Saving may look inadequate today, but households may already have made plans to redress this in future. Second, data on aggregate saving conceal significant differences between different household groups. Only disaggregation yields reliable inferences on which policy can be based. In particular, it is impossible to assess the consequences of demographic changes without analysis that distinguishes between different generations. We reassess household saving by computing the evolution of lifetime profiles of consumption, income and saving of different cohorts over time, and then analyse the effect of demographic and other changes. We find little evidence for the assertion that tax incentives to promote national saving are needed now to stave off a future drought in household saving.