Showing papers in "Empirica in 2010"

Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables in the EU

Abstract: In this paper we present a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors. We find significant cyclical asymmetry in the behaviour of fiscal variables in a sample of fourteen EU countries over 1970–2007, with budgetary balances (both overall and primary) deteriorating in contractions without correspondingly improving in expansions. Analysis of budget components reveals that cyclical asymmetry comes from expenditure. We find no evidence that fiscal rules introduced in 1992 with the Treaty of Maastricht affected the cyclical behaviour of fiscal variables. Numerical simulations show that cyclical asymmetry inflated average deficit levels, contributing significantly to debt accumulation.

Outsourcing versus integration at home or abroad and firm heterogeneity

Abstract: This paper analyzes the location (at home or abroad) and the mode of organization (outsourcing versus integration) of intermediate inputs production, using data on a sample of Italian manufacturing companies and focusing on the role of firm heterogeneity. We find evidence of a productivity ordering where foreign integration is chosen by the most productive firms and domestic outsourcing is chosen by the least productive firms; firms with medium-high productivity choose domestic integration, firms with medium-low productivity choose foreign outsourcing.

The border effects in Spain: an industry-level analysis

Abstract: A gravity-model approach is used to estimate the magnitude of the internal border (home bias) and external border (frontier) effects in Spain using industry-level trade flows. We find that the average border effects are about 30 and 10, respectively. Next we explore the variation in the industry-specific border effects. First, the border effects are larger in highly product differentiated industries. Second, the internal border effect is twice bigger for trade in intermediate goods than for trade in final goods. Third, conditioning on the geographic concentration of firms reduces significantly the internal border effect.

The role of public policy in closing foreign direct investment gaps: an empirical analysis

Abstract: Using public policy instruments to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has become standard in most countries, irrespective of their level of development, geographical location or industrial structure. Against this background the paper analyses the suitability of various public policies to attract inward FDI based on a sample of 11 countries and 10 industries from the manufacturing sector over 10 years. For this aim we derive an empirical baseline model of the determinants of inward FDI-stock. From this baseline model FDI-gaps—measured as the difference between the “estimated actual” inward FDI-stock and the “potential” FDI-stock, which could be realized if a certain “best practice policy” were carried out—are derived. Thereby the analysis focuses on business taxation, public research and development expenditures, the information and communication infrastructure endowment, labor costs as well as institutional and skill-related policies. The analysis inter alia reveals the share of each of these location factors in the total industry- and country-level FDI-gap. Moreover, the analysis explores how policy advice depends on the definition of the “best practice policy”.

R&D and productivity: using UK firm-level data to inform policy

Abstract: The UK’s business R&D (BERD) to GDP ratio is low compared to other leading economies, and the ratio has declined over the 1990s. This paper uses data on 719 large UK firms to analyse the link between R&D and productivity during 1989–2000. The results indicate that UK returns to R&D are similar to returns in other leading economies and have been relatively stable over the 1990s. The analysis suggests that the low BERD to GDP ratio in the UK is unlikely to be due to direct financial or human capital constraints (as these imply finding relatively high rates of return).

Complementarity between heterogeneous human capital and R&D: can job-training avoid low development traps?

Abstract: This paper uses a non-overlapping generations model of endogenous growth to emphasize the effect of human capital’s heterogeneity on economic growth. In addition to education, we present two different typologies of training. The first, technology-general, is independent of RD the second, technology-specific, is connected to the success of innovative activities and it is only provided to workers engaged in research. By extending Redding (Econ J 106:452–470, 1996), we demonstrate that human capital composition is important in determining the probability of innovation and the economy’s growth rate. Moreover, the paper shows that technology-general training avoids low development traps when R&D is absent.

Why do growth rates differ? Evidence from cross-country data on private sector production

Abstract: We estimate standard production functions with a new cross-country data set on business sector production, wages and R&D investment for a selection of 14 OECD countries including the US. The data sample covers years the 1960–2004. The data suggest that growth differences can largely be explained by capital deepening and the ability to produce new technology in the form of new patents. We also find strong evidence of complementarity between patents and openness of the economy, but little evidence of increasing elasticity of substitution over time.

The determinants of job creation and destruction: plant-level evidence for Eastern and Western Germany

Abstract: We examine job creation and destruction in Eastern and Western Germany for the period of 2000 to 2006, using a comprehensive dataset that enables us to capture precisely gross job flows. Our analysis clearly states that pronounced differences between the two parts of Germany exist only in terms of the magnitude, but not in the composition of gross job gains and losses. This finding holds independently of the observed sector or size class of plants. Considering interaction effects between all variables, this first econometric analysis on gross job flows for Germany shows that job creation and destruction can be explained to a large part by plant characteristics. The pattern found in descriptive studies for other countries that job reallocation rates diminish with firm size is similarly true for Germany. The creation of jobs attenuates with plant age, while regional characteristics are only important for job destruction.

What drives the perception of health and safety risks in the workplace? Evidence from European labour markets

Abstract: Worker perceptions of job-related health risk are a little-studied dimension of heterogeneity in the labour market. According to information from the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS), one out of three European workers considers that her health and safety is at risk because of work. Not surprisingly, risk perceptions are influenced by objective risk factors such as hazardous working conditions, onerous job characteristics and by the probability to be affected by occupational accidents and illnesses. This paper explores also the role played by personal characteristics and household structure for the explanation of risk perceptions. After controlling for job characteristics, workplace hazards, job satisfaction and health outcomes, I find that risk perceptions are strongly correlated with gender, age, and household structure. Lone parents as well as older and more experienced workers have a higher propensity than other categories to consider their health at risk because of work. The same seems to hold true for better educated workers, especially for those who have completed tertiary education. Further results suggest that the relationship between household structure and risk perception is stable across gender.

Bilateral FDI Potentials for Austria

Abstract: Trade economists have for long considered gravity models to estimate unexhausted potentials for bilateral trade. Similar to the discrepancy between “normal” and “actual” bilateral trade, one may ask the question about the difference between “normal” and actual bilateral multinational activity. However, with multinational activity, zero bilateral data and heteroskedasticity are very important, even more so than with trade data. Therefore, this paper suggests using generalized linear rather than log-linear models to specify “normal” FDI and obtain estimates of unexhausted FDI potentials. I use panel data on Austria’s bilateral multinational activity across 25 countries and 7 country-blocs, 4 sectors and 13 years to illustrate the disadvantage of log-linear model estimation at quasi-maximum likelihood estimation.

Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange

Abstract: The behaviour of an emerging market, the Athens Stock Exchange, after the introduction of the euro is investigated. The latter would make its returns easier to compare; reduce uncertainty; eliminate the exchange rate risk and as a result we expect the new currency to strengthen the argument, in favour of the EMH. The General ASE Composite Index and the FTSE/ASE 20, which consists of “high capitalisation” companies, are used. Five statistical tests are employed to test the residuals of the random walk model: the BDS, McLeod-Li, Engle LM, Tsay and Bicovariance test. Bootstrap and asymptotic values of these tests are estimated. Alternative models from the GARCH family (GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH) are also presented in order to investigate the behaviour of the series. Lastly, linear, asymmetric and non-linear error correction models are estimated and compared. The preferred model (TGARCH) suggests that leverage effects are present and the news impact curve is asymmetric.

Do the catholic and protestant countries differ by their tax morale

Abstract: Does the tax morale differ between various countries? The paper introduces a model of tax evasion. The equilibrium shadow production is determined by consumers’ and entrepreneurs’ tax morale, affected by the inherited culture or religion. The model suggests that in the conditions of the prisoners’ dilemma, shadow economies tend to be large once a moral code is violated. The implications of the model are tested in the OECD data on groups of countries with different religious denominations in two regimes, 1979–1992 and 1992–2003. We find evidence on a link between tax morale and shadow market activities, but none to support the view that tax morale differs between the catholic south and protestant north in Europe.

Changes in the Austrian structure of wages, 1996–2002: evidence from linked employer-employee data

Abstract: Analyzing data from the Structure of Earnings Surveys we find that wage dispersion in Austria increased only marginally between 1996 and 2002. There was an increase in the returns to education which accrued only to male workers. The positive effects of tenure and especially of experience on wages decreased over time. We adopt the Machado–Mata (J Appl Econ 20:445–465, 2005) counterfactual decomposition technique which allows to attribute changes in each wage decile to changes in worker and workplace characteristics and into changes in returns to these characteristics. Behind the small net increase in inequality we document a number of interesting gross effects that influence the change in the wage distribution. We find that both composition effects due to gender, education and age and market-driven effects such as changes in returns and changing workplace characteristics contributed to a higher dispersion of wages.

Decreasing fertility, economic growth and the intergenerational wage gap

Abstract: Persistent low fertility rates lead to lower population growth rates and eventually also to decreasing population sizes in most industrialized countries. There are fears that this demographic development is associated with declines in per capita GDP and possibly also increasing inequality of the wage distribution. We investigate whether this is true in the context of neoclassical growth models, augmented with endogenous fertility decisions and endogenous educational decisions. Furthermore we allow for imperfect substitutability across workers of different age in the production process and learning by doing effects as well as human capital depreciation. In particular, we assess the intergenerational wage redistribution effects which follow after a demographic change to persistent low fertility rates.

No risk and some fun? Trade and wages in the enlarged European Union

Abstract: This paper analyses the relationship between openness to trade and wages at the industry level (15 manufacturing and 6 service industries) in 25 EU countries over the period from 1995 to 2005. By applying a cross-country and industry-specific approach, it is possible to control for unobserved heterogeneity at both country and industry levels. We also differentiate between intra and inter-industry trade and we try to assess the relative importance of foreign wages versus domestic productivity developments in an open environment. We find that trade is not an important driver of wages, since the wage response to trade is small. Moreover, in line with the Stolper-Samuelson reasoning, the overall wage impact is always positive if significant in central and eastern Europe, while in western Europe we often observe a negative response, particularly in resource-based industries. Nevertheless, increased trade reinforces the productivity-wage link and weakens the co-movement of wages in eastern Europe, while there is less evidence of a similar wage-disciplining effect of trade in the west.

Demand for redistribution, support for the welfare state, and party identification in Austria

Abstract: This paper describes subjective wage inequality and the demand for redistribution in Austria using individuals’ estimates of occupational wages from the International Social Survey Program. Although these estimates differ widely across individuals, the data clearly show that most individuals would like to decrease wage inequality, relative to the level of inequality which they perceive to exist. The empirical analysis also shows that the demand for redistribution is strongly associated not only with variables describing self-interested motives for redistribution, but also with perceptions of and social norms with respect to inequality. Further, the demand for redistribution is a strong predictor for whether an individual is supportive of redistribution by the state. On the other hand, however, I find almost no evidence for an empirical association between the demand for redistribution and individuals’ party identification.

International outsourcing and the demand for skills

Abstract: This paper explores the impact of international outsourcing on the demand for skills in three small and open EU economies. A model of variable costs and factor demand functions for different skill levels and imported as well as domestic materials are constructed. International outsourcing is treated directly as a substitution process between labour of different skills and imported inputs. The direct consequence of international outsourcing for labour is measured by the cross price elasticities. These cross price elasticities indicate a negative outsourcing impact on low- and medium-skilled labour in the three countries and on high-skilled labour in two out of the three countries. This outsourcing effect on labour is compared with the direct effect of embodied technical change and of the technical change bias. International outsourcing has a more unambigous and significant negative impact on labour than technical change. Technical change is either labour using (embodied technical change) or only slightly biased in favour of high-skilled labour. When the cost savings effect of international outsourcing is taken into account, an indirect positive stimulus for all skill categories arises from a greater demand for goods. It can be shown, that this indirect positive effect can compensate for a large part of the negative substitution impact of international outsourcing on labour.

Is there any scope for corporatism in macroeconomic policies

Abstract: This paper studies corporatism as the outcome of bargaining between the government and a representative labor union. We show that if negotiations between these two parties only relate to macroeconomic policies and unions are not assumed to be inflation-averse, corporatism can never be beneficial to both parties. As corporatist policies are nevertheless commonly observed in this context, we discuss possible explanations that reconcile the theory with actual observations. The policy implications of these explanations are also discussed.

Fiscal and monetary interactions when wage-setters are large: is there a role for corporatist policies?

Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of alternative policy regimes in a closed economy where a central bank, a fiscal authority and a monopoly union interact via their effects on output and inflation. The analysis compares macroeconomic outcomes in a non-cooperative setting, where players may move sequentially or simultaneously, and in a regime of cooperation between the government and wage-setters. The cooperative regime captures a climate of accord among social parties that is finalised at common macroeconomic targets in the tradition of corporatism, as in the recent experience of “social pacts” in many European countries. The paper makes two main contributions. First, it shows that macroeconomic outcomes are suboptimal in the non-cooperative regime and may deliver extreme (undesirable) results even when all players share common ideal targets for output and inflation. All players would be better off with a less extreme value for output or inflation, yet they fail to reach a more advantageous allocation as long as there is an inherent conflict among their further objectives. Moreover, the result is robust to a change in the degree of central bank’s conservatism. Second, I find that cooperation between the government and the monopoly union towards common ideal targets for inflation, output and taxes enhances social welfare even in the absence of explicit coordination with the central bank.

The substitutability between parent company and foreign affiliate employment in Europe

Abstract: This paper examines the substitution pattern between parent company and foreign affiliate employment of European multinationals. The data is drawn from the AMADEUS and BANKSCOPE firm-level databases and covers parent companies in 14 high-wage European countries (EUR14) and their affiliated companies in the wider Europe including locations in the low-wage Central and East European countries (CEEC) for the period 2000–2004. We find that the substitution elasticity between employment of the EUR14 parent companies and employment in their foreign affiliates in the CEEC is quite low. Furthermore, the substitution possibilities are higher between parent company and affiliate employment in other West European countries than those between parent company and affiliate employment in the CEEC. Finally, we find that the output change of the parent company and to a lesser extent that of the foreign affiliates is more important than changes in relative wages in determining the relative labour demand.

Inflation and output in the long and short run in Turkey

Abstract: This paper firstly discusses the impact of inflation on real output in different theoretical models and then investigates this impact empirically in an economy facing persistent high inflation. We find some evidence of Sidrauski’s (Am Econ Rev 57:534–544, 1967) superneutrality of money for Turkey in the long run. However, it seems that inflation affects real output negatively in the short run. These results are more compatible with a class of utility functions in which real money balances and consumption are perfect complements as Asako (Econometrica 51(5):1593–1596, 1983) elucidates.

The changing nature of inflation persistence in Switzerland

Abstract: This note analyzes the persistence of inflation in Switzerland. In particular, we assess the impact of the new monetary framework adopted by the SNB in 2000 on inflation persistence. A set of rolling-window estimates shows that inflation persistence has fallen significantly since the end of the 1990s.