Showing papers in "Empirical Economics in 1995"

A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data

Abstract: A stochastic frontier production function is defined for panel data on firms, in which the non-negative technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be a function of firm-specific variables and time. The inefficiency effects are assumed to be independently distributed as truncations of normal distributions with constant variance, but with means which are a linear function of observable variables. This panel data model is an extension of recently proposed models for inefficiency effects in stochastic frontiers for cross-sectional data. An empirical application of the model is obtained using up to ten years of data on paddy farmers from an Indian village. The null hypotheses, that the inefficiency effects are not stochastic or do not depend on the farmer-specific variables and time of observation, are rejected for these data.

Public capital stock and state productivity growth: Further evidence from an error components model

Abstract: The contribution of different types of public infrastructure on private production is investigated using time-series of cross-section data for the 48 contiguous states over the period 1970–1986 A Cobb-Douglas production function is estimated with unobserved state-specific effects Measurement errors in public capital stock and its components are detected and rectified

A family of inverse demand systems and choice of functional form

Abstract: Barten's (1992) analysis of choice of functional form for quantity-dependent demand systems is extended to price-dependent or inverse demand systems. Alternative inverse demand systems combining the features of the Rotterdam inverse demand and almost ideal inverse demand systems are examined. Choice of functional form is made through a synthetic model which under appropriate restrictions yields the different inverse demand systems. The synthetic model itself can also be considered a more flexible specification.

The impact of environmental regulation on productivity in German industries

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to adjust a traditional total factor productivity (TFP) measure for the direct effect of environmental regulation on material and capital input. For this purpose we consider the fact that part of material input and pollution abatement capital have not been used to increase output but to cover the cost of using the environment as a factor of production. Therefore TFP growth rates are lower if part of the material input is allocated to abatement activities instead of producing output. We propose to treat compliance with environmental regulation as an unproductive input linked to the use of productive material input. Our aim is to answer and discuss two questions: How to measure the effect of environmental regulation on TFP, and does the effect matter. We examine data from 1975–1991 for ten pollution intensive German industries.

A sensitivity analysis of the impact of democracy on economic growth

Abstract: Often it is maintained that democracy is a luxury which comes at a price in terms of subsequent slower increases in national living standards. However, various recent cross-section studies on economic growth have found evidence that lack of civil and political liberties is negatively correlated with economic growth. Using various measures of democracy the robustness of previous research is examined. Both direct and indirect effects of lack of civil and political liberties are analysed. Our main conclusion is that the relationship between democracy and economic growth is not robust.

Modeling household fertility decisions: estimation and testing of censored regression models for count data.

Abstract: This paper adds to the recent body of research on fertility by estimating and testing censored poisson regression models and censored negative binomial regression models of household fertility decisions. A novel feature of this study is that in each case the censoring threshold varies from individual to individual. Also, a Lagrange multiplier or score test is used to investigate overdispersion. In these regression models the dependent variable is the number of children. In this situation, censored poisson regression models and censored negative binomial regression models have statistical advantages over OLS, uncensored poisson regression models, and uncensored negative binomial regression models. The censored models employed in this study are estimated using panel data collected from the Consumer Expenditure Survey compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The findings of this study support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1965-70).

Comparing structural efficiency of unbalanced subsamples: A resampling adaptation of data envelopment analysis

Abstract: This paper investigates the performance of a bootstrapping enhanced DEA to measure the relative structural efficiency of unbalanced subsamples. Although this issue plays an important role in applied DEA, it is often ignored, resulting in misleading conclusions concerning relative efficiency. It is shown, that a reasampling approach to DEA can cope with this problem and also allows the use of pooled samples. The distribution of a statistic to test the hypotheses of equal structural efficiency is derived from Monte Carlo simulations and compared with the corresponding statistic calculated from standard DEA results. While the resampling variant of DEA justifies the use of the normal approximation, this is not the case for standard DEA.

Modelling nonlinearity in U.S. Gross national product 1889–1987

Abstract: This paper considers modelling the annual logarithmed per capita gross national product of the United States in 1889–1987. Some authors have suggested that the parameters of the process generating the data have changed over time but formal parameter constancy tests do not support this argument. The series turns out to be nonlinear and can be adequately characterized by an exponential smooth transition autoregressive model. For comparison, a detrended series is also considered, found nonlinear and modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive model. The behaviour of the estimated models is discussed, and it is seen that nonlinearity is needed to describe the response of the process to exceptionally large exogenous shocks. The properties of the models are further investigated by forecasting several years ahead, and the forecasts are compared with those from other linear and nonlinear models.

The Existence of Factor Substitution in the Primary Aluminium Industry. A Multivariate Error Correction Approach on Norwegian Panel Data

Abstract: This paper presents an econometric analysis of factor demands in the Norwegian primary aluminium industry using annual plant-level panel data. The translog cost function approach is applied, and a multivariate error-correction model of the cost shares of labour, raw materials and electricity is estimated. Capital is assumed tobe quasi-fixed. The hypothesis of fixed input coefficients is rejected for this industry, but the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities suggest that relative price variations have limited effect on conditional factor demands.

A reconsideration of the public sector's contribution to growth

Abstract: A recent development in macroeconomic theory suggests that public investmentper se is relevant to economic growth, without regard to the means of financing government activity. This study undertakes an empirical investigation of this proposition, comparing two subperiods of the manufacturing sector's performance in Greece. Our test results support the conventional view that the size of public capital formation and the real intertemporal allocation of public sector may be important for determining manufacturing costs and profits but public deficits are likely to be of comparable or even dominating importance in determining manufacturing output. The emphasis on the financial as opposed to the real aspects of the government's decisions allows the establishment of a benchmark model as an appealing alternative to the newclassical analysis.

Capital-skill complementarity in West German manufacturing

Abstract: Capital-skill complementarity is tested for two different definitions of skill, using data from 32 West German manufacturing industries from 1975–1990. Using the Kmenta approximation for the CES function provides strong support for complementarity between white collar workers and capital. On the other hand, when “skill” is defined as skilled white collar and blue collar workers, we find essentially no evidence for complementarity. This surprising result suggests that the official classification of skilled production workers does not capture the planning activity most complementary to increasing capital intensity and technological progress.

Forecasting nonlinear economic time series: A simple test to accompany the nearest neighbor approach

Abstract: This paper is based on a recent nonparametric forecasting approach by Sugihara, Grenfell and May (1990) to improve the short term prediction of nonlinear chaotic processes. The idea underlying their forecasting algorithm is as follows: For a nonlinear low-dimensional process, a state space reconstruction of the observed time series exhibits “spatial” correlation, which can be exploited to improveshort term forecasts by means of locally linear approximations. Still, the important question of evaluating the forecast perfomance is very much an open one, if the researcher is confronted with data that are additionally disturbed by stochastic noise. To account for this problem, a simple nonparametric test to accompany the algorithm is suggested here. To demonstrate its practical use, the methodology is applied to observed price series from commodity markets. It can be shown that the short term predictability of the best fitting linear model can be improved upon significantly by this method.

Future inflation and the information in international term structures

Abstract: This paper extends previous work on the information content of the term structure of interest rates using a newly constructed dataset for the United States, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, France, Belgium and the Netherlands (1982–1991). Results significantly differ from Jorion and Mishkin (1991). Apparently, the relation between the term structure of interest rates and future inflation is highly period- and country-dependent. We provide new evidence that these results may be due to the inability of financial markets to accurately predict a term structure of inflation in combination with the conduct of monetary policy. This probably accounts for large variation in ex post real interest rate levels and the term structure of real interest rates. Consequently, it is unlikely that the term structure of nominal interest rates will serve as a good indicator of future inflationary developments.

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

Abstract: In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.

Wage setting, taxes and demand for labour: Multivariate analysis of cointegrating relations

Abstract: A 10-dimensional vector space is defined which is in accordance with a model of wage setting and demand for labour specified in a bargaining framework. Structural restrictions identifying the long-run relations of interest are specified. Restrictions which characterize wage-seting and labour demand schedules are imposed and tested, first separately and then jointly. The FIML procedure proposed in Johansen and Juselius (1990) is applied.

Interest rate linkages in Europe before and after the introduction of the European Monetary System

Abstract: In this paper, possible interest rate linkages between the U.S. and Europe and within Europe are investigated with special reference to the EMS. We use three-month domestic money market rates from 1974 to 1979, from 1983 to 1989, and from 1990 to 1994 for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the U.K., and the U.S. For all periods, we find a strong German influence on the development in the other European countries and, for the first two periods, at best a very weak direct influence from the U.S. However, Germany does not dominate the other countries totally. There are significant relations between the EMS member countries which are not influenced by Germany, and there are relations to other EMS members than Germany from outside this system. Revised Version, March 1995. — Earlier versions of this paper wer presented at seminars at the Universities of Zurich, Bielefeld and Leuven, and at the Konstanzer Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy. We thank the participants of these seminars as well as two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. — We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft by Grant No. 322 147. We thank Wilhelm-Johannes Jaenicke for performing the computations and Anna Rushing-Jungeilges for editing the paper in English.

Specification and testing of count data recreation demand functions

Abstract: This article examines the effects of alternative formulations of count data recreation demand models on parameter estimates, model selection, and consumer surplus. The results indicate that large parameter and consumer surplus differences exists across the various count model formulations. More importantly, the results show that distributional assumptions, heteroscedastic functional forms, and overdispersion can have a substantial effect on consumer surplus estimates.

Quarterly US unemployment: Cycles, seasons and asymmetries

Abstract: This paper documents three stylized facts for the quarterly unemployment rate in the United States. Firstly, unemployment is asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e. it rises sharply in recessions and it falls slowly in expansions. Secondly, its seasonal fluctuations are not constant across the two business cycle stages in the sense that there is less seasonality in recession periods. Thirdly, the effect of shocks to the unemployment rate in expansions seem transitory, while this effect is permanent in recessions. Some implications of these stylized facts for empirical macroeconomics and seasonal adjustment are discussed.

On latitude and affluence: The equatorial grand canyon

Abstract: Our objective is to “explain” per capita GDPs by the countries' latitude, using PPP-based data for 138 countries in 1985 (PPP = purchasing power parity). A simple approach is formulated which nevertheless accounts for as much as two-thirds of the variance of the per capita GDPs.

A simple nested test of the Almost Ideal Demand System

Abstract: The MPIGLOG specification of an indirect utility function gives rise to Cooper and McLaren's (1992) Modified Almost Ideal Demand System (MAIDS) specification, which nests the Almost Ideal Demand System. Following the ‘combined’ approach outlined by Fry, Fry and McLaren (1993), we transform the deterministic equations to logratio form for estimation. This procedure not only restricts the shares implied by the model to the unit simplex, but also provides a transparent representation of the restriction implied by the Almost Ideal Demand System. We estimate MAIDS (with and without the Almost Ideal Demand System restriction imposed) using the ‘combined’ approach and proceed to test the Almost Ideal Demand System restriction.

On the determination of real interest rates in Europe

Abstract: In this paper a loanable funds model is estimated over the period 1959–1990 for the determination of after-tax expected real interest rates using aggregated data for four European countries under the assumption that high capital mobility in Europe implies a common capital market. It is concluded that real interest rates in the European Community were mainly driven by movements in temporary income, expected inflation, lagged investment, money growth, and the oil price. Moreover, our aggregate, model appears to be reasonably stable. Finally, individual country rates are shown to depend on the European rate as well as some country-specific variables, suggesting a limited degree of isolation from international financial markets for the countries concerned.

Seasonality and stochastic trends in German consumption and income, 1960.1- 1987.4

Abstract: The quarterly time series of German consumption and income are analyzed with respect to seasonality and stochastic trends. It emerges that both variables can be appropriately described by a periodically integrated autoregression. An implication is that the stochastic trend and the seasonal fluctuations are not independent for each of the univariate series. In order to test for cointegration across the two series, we propose several methods which take account of the relationship between seasons and trends in the univariate series. Some of these methods boil down to extracting the stochastic trend from the univariate series in a first step and to relating these trends using cointegration techniques in a second step. Another method is an extension of the Johansen cointegration testing approach to periodic vector autoregressions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the empirical performance of the various methods. The main empirical result is that only in the first quarter there seems to be cointegration between German consumption and income.

The wage effects of investments in enterprise-related training

Abstract: In this paper we calculate the rate of return to enterprise-related training (ERT) using a simultaneous equations self-selection model of investment in ERT and wages. For participants the expected rate of return to a year of ERT is approximately 28%. For non-participants the rate of return is negative. Although the average rate of return is high, the marginal rate of return is zero or negative. We further find that investments in ERT are not significantly determined by expected returns.

Trade liberalization and industrial structure in Spain: An applied general equilibrium analysis

Abstract: We empirically evaluate the aggregate welfare effects and structural adjustment for the Spanish economy that would follow from trade liberalization with the European Economic Community. Recent theory suggests that the classical gains form more liberal trade relations could be amplified substantially if EEC liberalization permits Spanish industries to realize economies of scale. These effects depend upon the extent of trade creation and trade diversion resulting from preferential liberalization, which in turn depend on the existing patterns of Spanish resource allocation, trade, and comparative advantage. The estimated results are derived from disaggregated microeconomic model of the Spanish economy. We find that increasing returns can actually be beneficial or detrimental, depending upon the interactions between trade and policy toward domestic industry.

A factor analysis approach to measure the biased effects of retail fruit juice advertising

Abstract: This study presents a structural factor analysis approach to measure the impact of advertising on consumer demand. It is assumed that advertising affects the latent perception of consumers, which in turn influences their purchasing behavior. This study investigates the relationship between consumer purchases and retail store advertising (i.e., newspaper advertising, in-store display, and point-of-purchase display) of three fruit juices using an extended Rotterdam model. The results show that the demand for orange juice and grapefruit juice was affected by their own advertising, while the demand for apple juice was only affected by advertising of competitive juices.

A reexamination of the Nelson-Plosser data set using recursive and sequential tests

Abstract: The present paper applies to the Nelson-Plosser data set the recursive, rolling, and sequential tests proposed by Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (1992) for unit roots in the presence of mean or trend breaks. Unlike Perron's method, these three types of test endogenize the break point in the mean or trend and thus are more appealing in empirical studies. The (reverse) recursive test indicates rejection of the unit root null in industrial production and unemployment rate. The sequential test indicates that nominal GNP and common stock prices are stationary with a break in the mean.

Political preference functions, trade wars, and trade negotiations

Abstract: The integration of elementary political considerations into computable general equilibrium models is considered, and an extended illustration to agricultural trade negotiations provided. The application involves an evaluation of the payoffs of alternative support levels to agricultural and non-agricultural interests in the EC and the US. A government political preference function for each region is calibrated as a CES aggregation of the payoffs to the two interest groups, with weights corresponding to their benchmark political influence. The political preference function is presumed to be employed by each government to determine the level of agricultural support. The analysis illustrates how sensitive such computable general equilibrium models can be to elementary political considerations, mainly due to the flatness of the implied Pareto frontier. It also illustrates how one can modify the traditional political preference function approach to accommodate possible convexities of the Pareto frontier in empirical models.

New tests for stationarity and parity reversion: Evidence on New Zealand real exchange rates

Abstract: The present paper discusses the stochastic stationarity of New Zealand exchange rates in light of new time series methods and new tests. The question of whether the real exchange rates have a unit root or are mean reverting is set in the general framework of fractionally integrated models. The estimates sustain the claim that New Zealand real exchange series are not stationary. However, it is shown that nonstationarity is compatible with parity reversion in the framework of fractional unit-root models.

Alcohol content and demand for alcoholic beverages: A system approach

Abstract: This paper examines how alcohol content affects the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Finland. Three different quality hypotheses are studied and compared: Fisher and Shell, Theil, and an additive one. The comparison of the hypotheses is based on quality elasticities implied by the hypotheses. The results show that, under all hypotheses, alcohol content positively affects the demand for alcoholic beverages, and this effect depends negatively on income. The results of the comparison of the hypotheses show that the additive fits the data best. However, the other hypotheses are almost as good: Fisher and Shell's hypothesis better than Theil's.