Showing papers in "Energy & Environment in 2007"

The Economy-Wide Effects in the United States of Replacing Crude Petroleum with Biomass

Abstract: Part of President Bush's energy policy is to encourage research aimed at reducing the cost of biomass-based motor fuels to become competitive with petroleum-based fuels. We use a dynamic, CGE model to investigate the economy-wide implications of successful implementation of this policy. We find in the long-run, 2020, that the U.S. would experience significant benefits arising from: (1) substitution of biomass whose price is likely to fall in the long-run for crude petroleum whose price is likely to rise; (2) reduction in the world price of crude petroleum; (3) increased employment; and (4) higher export prices.

A 2000-Year Global Temperature Reconstruction Based on Non-Treering Proxies:

Abstract: Historical data provide a baseline for judging how anomalous recent temperature changes are and for assessing the degree to which organisms are likely to be adversely affected by current or future warming. Climate histories are commonly reconstructed from a variety of sources, including ice cores, tree rings, and sediment. Tree-ring data, being the most abundant for recent centuries, tend to dominate reconstructions. There are reasons to believe that tree ring data may not properly capture long-term climate changes. In this study, eighteen 2000-year-long series were obtained that were not based on tree ring data. Data in each series were smoothed with a 30-year running mean. All data were then converted to anomalies by subtracting the mean of each series from that series. The overall mean series was then computed by simple averaging. The mean time series shows quite coherent structure. The mean series shows the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) quite clearly, with the MWP being approxima...

Taking greenhouse warming seriously

Abstract: In science, there is an art to simplifying complex problems so that they can be meaningfully analyzed. If one oversimplifies, the analysis is meaningless. If one doesn’t simplify, then one often can’t proceed with the analysis. When it comes to global warming due to the greenhouse effect, it is clear that many approaches are highly oversimplified. This is particularly true of the treatment in Gore’s Inconvenient Truth as will be discussed shortly. We will also approach the issue more seriously in order to see whether one can reach reasonably rigorous conclusions. It turns out that one can, and the conclusions are far from alarming.

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts

Abstract: In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its updated, Fourth Assessment Report, forecasts. The Report was commissioned at great cost in order to provide policy recommendations to governments. It included predictions of dramatic and harmful increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked, are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no.” To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, (3) the effects of alternative policies, and (4) whether the best policy would be successfully implemented. Proper forecasts of all four are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are easily available in books, articles, and websites. In our audit of Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report, we found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. We concluded that the forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful. Instead, policies should be based on forecasts from scientific forecasting methods. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

180 Years of Atmospheric Co2 Gas Analysis by Chemical Methods

Abstract: More than 90,000 accurate chemical analyses of CO2 in air since 1812 are summarised. The historic chemical data reveal that changes in CO2 track changes in temperature, and therefore climate in contrast to the simple, monotonically increasing CO2 trend depicted in the post-1990 literature on climate-change. Since 1812, the CO2 concentration in northern hemispheric air has fluctuated exhibiting three high level maxima around 1825, 1857 and 1942 the latter showing more than 400 ppm.Between 1857 and 1958, the Pettenkofer process was the standard analytical method for determining atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and usually achieved an accuracy better than 3%. These determinations were made by several scientists of Nobel Prize level distinction. Following Callendar (1938), modern climatologists have generally ignored the historic determinations of CO2, despite the techniques being standard text book procedures in several different disciplines. Chemical methods were discredited as unreliable choosing only fe...

On Setting Near-Term Climate Policy While the Dust Begins to Settle: The Legacy of the Stern Review

Abstract: We review the explosion of commentary that has followed the release of the Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, and agree with most of what has been written. The Review is right when it argues on economic grounds for immediate intervention to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, but we feel that it is right for the wrong reasons. A persuasive case can be made that climate risks are real and increasingly threatening. If follows that some sort of policy will be required, and the least cost approach necessarily involves starting now. Since policy implemented in 2007 will not "solve" the climate problem, near term interventions can be designed to begin the process by working to avoid locking in high. carbon investments and providing adequate incentives for carbon sequestration. We argue that both objectives can be achieved without undue economic harm in the near term by pricing carbon at something on the order of $15 per ton as long as it is understood that the price will increase persistently and predictably at something like the rate of interest; and we express support for a tax, alternative to the usual cap-and-trade approach.

Voluntary Agreements for Energy Efficiency: Review and Results of European Experiences

Abstract: During the 1990s there was great attention and debate in the European Union (EU) and in OECD countries outside the EU on the use of voluntary agreements to attain environmental and sustainable energy policy goals. At the time there was a lot of theoretical analysis and discussions on this policy instrument and in particular on its effectiveness and cost efficiency. Before the debate was over, a number of important voluntary agreements to improve energy efficiency or reduce CO2 emissions were implemented in Europe both at national and European levels. These voluntary agreements cover end-use equipment and appliances (e.g. cars, electric motors, residential appliances, etc.), industrial processes, and industrial energy management policies and practices. The paper classifies and analyses the different types of voluntary agreements aiming at improving energy efficiency in Europe, and reviews voluntary agreements and other initiatives of similar nature (voluntary programmes, unilateral commitments, self-regula...

China's Hunt for Oil in Africa in Perspective

Abstract: China is concerned about the security of its sea-lanes for imports and desires to diversify its oil supplies from the Middle East in order to sustain economic growth. These concerns have sparked China’s interest in trying to ensure oil supplies from as many sources as possible and in reducing its overwhelming reliance on seaborne imports of oil, which, in China’s view, is considered less vulnerable to disruption than oil arriving by tankers. In this context, China has turned the eyes on the emerging oil and gas fields in Africa. Through its high-profile oil diplomacy, China has been successful in developing its access to African oil and gas resources. However, China’s oil diplomacy in Africa has been roundly criticized in Western capitals. Washington increasingly perceives that Beijing’s ties to the so-called rogue states undermine the U.S. goals of isolating or punishing these states that fail to prompt democracy, limit nuclear proliferation or respect human rights. This paper argues that China’s hunt for oil in Africa has been exaggerated by partly-informed commentators, sometimes based on erroneous information, not to mention those that deliberately paint the distorted picture. That said, the paper suggests that, in pursuing its oil diplomacy, Beijing should take into account many factors including Washington concerns, in particular when U.S. concerns also reflect those of a large section of the international community. The paper points out that devoting more resources to build a better future for all and help to eliminate the fear of another Rwanda or Darfur is a positive form that Beijing should take in its engagement with Africa. This way of engagement would be considered more positive by the broad community of states, and helps to enhance China’s security of energy supply and at the same time would significantly reduce one source of tension with Washington. Overall, it will greatly benefit Africa as well as China.

Market Diffusion of New Renewable Energy in Europe: Explaining Front-Runner and Laggard Positions

Abstract: In 1997, the European Union adopted the ambitious target of doubling the share of renewables in total primary energy consumption by 2010. However, by 2003 the EU was still recording low achievement levels, due largely to variation in the generosity and stability of member-state policies to support the diffusion of renewable energy. This article surveys national variation in the diffusion of renewable energy, linking this variation to the degree of ambition in governmental policies. After discussing what drives national policies, we conclude that policy ambitiousness reflects the degree to which salient national energy-related problems converge around renewable energy diffusion as a joint solution. Countries with ambitious renewable energy policies are found to have many unsolved national energy-related problems and an abundant primary renewable energy resource base that could be developed for solving these problems. Countries with less ambitious policies, on the other hand, have fewer salient national ene...

Bias and Concealment in the IPCC Process: The “Hockey-Stick” Affair and its Implications

Abstract: The climatic "hockey stick" hypothesis has systemic problems. I review how the IPCC came to adopt the "hockey stick" as scientific evidence of human interference with the climate. I report also on independent peer reviewed studies of the "hockey stick" that were instigated by the US House of Representatives in 2006, and which comprehensively invalidated it. The "divergence" problem and the selective and unreliable nature of tree-ring reconstructions are discussed, as is the unsatisfactory review process of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that ignored the invalidation of the "hockey stick". The error found recently in the GISS temperature series is also noted. It is concluded that the IPCC has neither the structure nor the necessary independence and supervision of its processes to be acceptable as the monopoly authority on climate science. Suggestions are made as to how the IPCC could improve its procedures towards producing reports and recommendations that are more scientifically sound.

Is a richer-but-warmer world better than poorer-but-cooler worlds?

Abstract: Greater economic growth could lead to greater greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously enhancing various aspects of human well-being and the capacity to adapt to climate change. This begs the question as to whether and, if so, for how long would a richer-but-warmer world be better for well-being than poorer-but-cooler worlds. To shed light on this issue, this paper draws upon results of the “Fast Track” assessment (FTA) reported in a special issue of Global Environmental Change: Part A 14(1): 1-99 (2004), which employed the IPCC’s emissions scenarios to project future climate change and its global impacts on various determinants of human and environmental well-being. Results suggest that notwithstanding climate change, through much of this century, human wellbeing is likely to be highest in the richest-but-warmest (A1F1) world and lower in poorer-but-cooler worlds. With respect to environmental well-being, matters may be best under the A1F1 world for some critical environmental indicators through 2085-2100, but not necessarily for others.

Renewable Energy Development – Challenges for Bangladesh

Abstract: In Bangladesh, annual per capita energy consumption is approximately 200 KgOE, which is among the lowest in the world. Presently, 70% of the population does not have access to electricity in Bangladesh (GoB, 2004). The average system loss is 20.97% (GoB, 2006). The demand for power is estimated to increase 300 MW annually (GoB, 1996a). In contrast, concerns have been raised about the conventional energy production from fossil fuels that significantly contributes to environmental degradation at the local, regional and global levels. This situation calls for adoption of sustainable energy strategies that permeate every level of the economy and can provide rural dwellers with the services that they want and need.With this backdrop, Bangladesh has been experiencing a gradual shift towards exploring renewable energy resources as a means to fuel rural development in the off-grid areas. The country is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources. The Local Government Engineering Department (LGED), with its m...

Some Observations on the IPCC Assessment Process 1988–2007

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shaped the international debate on human-induced climate change since 1988. It has developed a unique methodology for the assessment of scientific knowledge as a basis for policy formation and its reports and their use by governments have been both warmly praised and strongly criticised. Although the integrity of the IPCC assessment process has been subject to many pressures, and the demands on its Chairmen, Working Group Co-Chairs, Lead Authors, reviewers and national delegations have been heavy and sustained, this insider assessment of the overall role and operation of the IPCC over the past 20 years concludes that, on balance, the IPCC assessment process has been extraordinarily successful and that it has served the world well. The paper provides both an anecdotal and analytical view of the origin, establishment and operation of the IPCC and an evaluation of some of the main lines of criticism that have been directed at its role, its modus operan...

The Potential for Wind Energy Meeting Electricity Needs on Vancouver Island

Abstract: In this paper, an in-depth analysis of power supply and demand on Vancouver Island is used to provide information about the optimal allocation of power across ‘generating’ sources and to investigate the economics of wind generation and penetrability into the Island grid. The methodology developed can be extended to a region much larger than Vancouver Island. Results from the model indicate that Vancouver Island could experience blackouts in the near future unless greater name-plate capacity is developed. While wind-generated energy has the ability to contribute to the Island’s power needs, the problem with wind power is its intermittency. The results indicate that wind power may not be able to prevent shortfalls, regardless of the overall name-plate capacity of the wind turbines. Further, costs of reducing CO2 emissions using wind power are unacceptably large, perhaps more than $100 per t CO2, although this might be attributable to the mix of power sources making up the Island’s grid.

Climate Outlook to 2030

Abstract: Our forecast for global average temperature to 2030 has been updated for the progression of Solar Cycle 23 and the contribution that will be made by increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The increased length of Solar Cycle 23 supports the view that Solar Cycle 24 will be weak, with the consequence of increased certainty that that there will be a global average temperature decline in the range of 1° to 2°C for the forecast period. The projected increase of 40 ppm in atmospheric carbon dioxide to 2030 is calculated to contribute a global atmospheric temperature increase of 0.04°C. The anthropogenic contribution to climate change over the forecast period will be insignificant relative to natural cyclic variation.

Energy diversification choices for Nigeria: Optimisation by the Criteria Ranking Method

Abstract: This paper reviews the diverse energy options available to Nigeria, and presents some popular arguments for choosing certain energy options above others for large-scale development. These popular methods of making energy policy decisions may be prone to faulty reasoning and may not be quantitatively assessable. Using the criteria of availability, economy of energy conversion and environmental sustainability, a procedure of preference ranking based on expert opinions is suggested for optimizing decisions on the most suitable candidates for energy diversification in Nigeria in the coming decades. A test case utilizing three opinions on the criteria for nine energy options is used to show how the method works.

A critique of a method to determine long-term decline of coral reef ecosystems

Abstract: The supposedly already-degraded state of coral reef ecosystems is sometimes claimed to be a reason why anthropogenic global warming will have a major impact on the reefs, i.e. they are already close to extinction and can easily be tipped over the edge. Recently published work by Pandolfi et al. (2003) in Science has outlined a method for measuring the decline of coral reef ecosystems throughout the world according to which the outer and inner Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are claimed to be 28% and 36% respectively, down the path towards ecological extinction. This is a highly significant claim given the important status of the GBR, so the result deserves attention and objective scrutiny.This paper sets out to scrutinise the methodology used by Pandolfi et al. (2003) under four headings: (i) the guilds are poorly weighted and focus largely on human target species, rather than species that are ecologically important to reefs; (ii) the numerical scale used to “measure” the state of the reefs is not well-founded a...

The politics of fuel pricing in Latin America and their implications for the environment

Abstract: Historically, fuel prices in Latin America have not been set based on conventional marginal cost or opportunity cost principles. Instead, fuel prices have been based on political considerations, income distribution goals and the promotion of industrialisation. Although this has gradually changed in most of the countries of the region in the last years, it still applies to Ecuador, Venezuela and Mexico. These countries have been characterised by high degree of government intervention, which has resulted in very low fuel prices, and along with it, very high fuel consumption. In these countries, the transport sector accounts for a considerable share of emissions such as particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which seriously affect public health. It also represents the fastest growing CO2 emitting sector. Steadily increasing demand for fuels, accompanied by continued low fuel prices in these countries, can be expected to counteract any efforts aimed at reducing both local and...

District heating as a secure heat supply - A question of regulation

Abstract: The trend in the district heating industry is toward increased privatization and openness to competition, which bring with them other phenomena associated with civil law, such as bankruptcies. Vingaker was one of six Swedish municipalities whose district heating companies went bankrupt in 2004. The bankruptcy caused major disruptions in Vingaker, not least as a result of the unregulated legal framework that has long prevailed in the area of district heating, where there is essentially no consumer protection. A distinguishing feature of Vingaker, and one that may be assumed to apply to other smafler municipalities as well, is the fact that the municipality was the totally dominant customer in the district heating system. In its negotiations, the municipality was able to exploit this position of strength by refusing to pay the district heating pnce set by the trustee in bankruptcy while still continuing to have district heat delivered. At the same time, the case of Vingaker also shows that, in their procurement processes, municipalities need to conduct a thorough analysis of the ownership structures of the bidding companies, and determine the extent to which each company is established in the industry. Yet another lesson to be taken from this case is that changes in external factors such as fuel costs and taxes, which are difficult for local actors to influence, create a need to draw up short-term contracts that allow for adjustments in the district heating rates.

Exogenous Promotion of Sustainable Electricity Policies in India: Opportunities and Challenges

Abstract: The Indian government needs to increase the access to electricity of a growing population and economy taking into account major environmental and health related challenges, rapidly changing technologies, social and cultural preferences and international commitments. Such an increased access calls for substantial investment, and hence India has been gradually liberalising the electricity sector since 1991. This paper addresses the question: What are the opportunities for accessing the foreign funding available to India and how can it use this funding to modernise its electricity sector in a sustainable manner? Based on a two year research programme, this paper examines the international institutional context and draws conclusions regarding the different mechanisms for India and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing India. It argues that since foreign funding is flowing into the country with enhanced liberalisation, the climate change mechanisms should be used to steer electricity gene...

The Fraud Allegation Against Some Climatic Research of Wei-Chyung Wang

Abstract: Wei-Chyung Wang has been a respected researcher in global warming studies for decades. I have formally alleged that he committed fraud in some of his research, including research cited by the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) on "urban heat islands" (a critical issue). Herein, the allegation is reviewed, and some of its implications are explicated.

The Impact of Market Power on the Functioning of Tradable Green Certificates Schemes

Abstract: Quotas with Tradable Green Certificates (TGC) schemes have generally been regarded as an effective and cost-efficient way to promote electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E). The theoretical analysis of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of TGC schemes has traditionally taken place assuming perfect competition in, both the electricity and TGC markets. However, these markets may not approach the conditions of a perfectly competitive market. This paper analyses the influence of market power in, both, the TGC and electricity markets on RES-E deployment, cost-effectiveness and cost distribution. The major conclusion is that market power should not be a concern. Market power does not affect the effectiveness of a quota with TGC system, i.e., it does not affect RES-E deployment, although market power on the supply side of markets may negatively affect the cost-effectiveness of the system and increase the cost burden for electricity consumers.

Assessment of tidal current resources: case studies of estuarine and coastal sites

Abstract: The potential for tidal stream power in North Western European waters is large and a number of axial flow, vertical rotor and oscillating hydroplane schemes are approaching full scale design and construction. The accurate determination of the available or potential fluid power is being addressed by, in particular, the regulatory bodies as they move towards the establishment of industry standards and the identification and designation of licensing areas. A generic formulation is developed here which utilises Admiralty tidal diamond data and the arithmetic summation of harmonics due to the lunar semi-diurnal, the solar semi-diurnal and (for shallow water and estuarine sites) the lunar quarter diurnal components. Numerical and sensitivity analyses show that the long term potential power is sensitive to the amplitudes of the harmonics but insensitive to the frequencies and phase differences. The results are applied to estuarine sites off Immingham and at Hull Roads in the Humber and to a shallow water, coasta...

The IPCC: Structure, Processes and Politics Climate Change – the Failure of Science

Abstract: The IPCC has been in existence for nearly 20 years but its final report is nowhere in sight. The essence of the difficulty is the impossibility of applying process theory to a problem that can only be solved by applying observation theory. Nowhere in the world is process theory used to design systems and structures exposed to climatic extremes. If climate change scientists had applied well-established observation theory instead of abstract process theory, they would have studied the wealth of published climate-related data extending back for more than the past 100 years. They would have observed the unequivocal linkage between variations in solar activity and synchronous climatic responses. The nations of the world would not be in the position where they are debating the necessity for implementing costly, and in all likelihood fruitless, greenhouse gas emissions control measures based on seriously flawed science. These measures must inevitably damage their economies and the reputation of science as an hon...

Is Stern Review on Climate Change Alarmist

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the conclusion of the Stern Review that the cost of climate change could be as much as 20% of the global GDP. In this paper, I identify two major sources of variation in the estimates of the aggregate cost of climate change. One is the disagreement among the AOGCM models on the magnitude of climate change, and the other is the divergence among the economic models on how harmful these changes will be to the economy. The main conclusion of this paper is that only under the alarmist approach—which assumes both the most severe climate change and the most extreme estimate of climate change damage to the economy—we can be convinced that the cost of climate change is close to 20% of the global GDP in 2100. In most other cases, the cost will be under 1% of the global GDP.