Showing papers in "Epidemics in 2010"

TL;DR: It is suggested that serotype replacement involving 19A may be complete in Massachusetts due to similarities in population structure to pre-vaccine samples, and may allay concerns about future increases in disease due to 19A.

TL;DR: A mathematical model argues that at infection rates as low as reported from empirical studies, vertical transmission is not an important factor for long term virus persistence and processes such as asymptomatic human dengue cases are more likely to be important in persistence than transmission within the vector population.

TL;DR: This study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme, however, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

TL;DR: Establishing a dose response model for influenza provides a firm basis for studies of interventions reducing exposure to different classes of infectious particles, and demonstrates that with these dose response models the probabilities of infection by either aerosol or sedimenting droplets are approximately equal.

TL;DR: HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited, and provides a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA.

TL;DR: The results indicate that certain densely populated livestock areas in the Netherlands remain high-risk areas even for strategies that extend EU minimum measures with culling or vaccination within a ring radius of several kilometres.

TL;DR: Sexual risk behaviour amongst men having sex with men who are not aware of their infection is the most likely factor driving this HIV-1 epidemic in the Netherlands.

TL;DR: It is found that the second order properties of a directed contact network may vary through time even with little change in the mean contact rates or in overall connectedness of the network, similar to that reported for other populations.

TL;DR: The presented method could be an appreciable tool for estimating the global burden of epidemics since it is based on data already routinely collected in each European Member State and the temporal distribution of extra-deaths suggests that they were related to the BT8 epidemic.

TL;DR: In the focal population, it is found that injection drug users (IDUs) do not directly cause many secondary infections; yet they bridge the heterosexual and men-who-have-sex-with-men populations and are thereby indirectly responsible for extensive transmission.

TL;DR: The present study suggests that an exclusive role of women's age in shaping the rate of progression to cancer is unlikely and including more accurately the role of the duration of infection and precancerous lesions as determinants of the cervical cancer occurrence in models of cervical cancer control may influence predictors of the effectiveness of intervention strategies.

TL;DR: Analysis of the between-farm transmission of the H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus that disrupted the Italian poultry production in the 1999-2000 epidemic with a SEIR model with a spatial transmission kernel found significant differences in susceptibility between species and a reduction in transmissibility after the first phase.

TL;DR: The first component of the assessment, which entailed identifying feasible incursion scenarios for bluetongue virus serotype 8, focused on three routes of introduction: wind-borne dispersal of infected vectors, import of infected animals and northwards spread of BTV from affected areas in GB.

TL;DR: Investigation of the economic consequences of a bluetongue virus incursion into Scotland investigated a defined set of feasible incursion scenarios under different vaccination strategies and highlighted that infection will rarely spread in Scotland after the initial incursion and will be efficiently controlled by vaccination.

TL;DR: A spatially explicit agent-based schistosomiasis transmission model that explicitly including agricultural land use, human water contact behaviors, feces processing, and control strategies in a multi-level agent based model is proposed.

TL;DR: Data from a large-scale field study carried out in Scotland is used to fit both “SIS”-type dynamical models and statistical risk factor models and identify the most parsimonious model, which does predict that farms can infect other farms through routes other than cattle movement, and that there is a nonlinear relationship between the force of infection and the number of infected farms.

TL;DR: The early spread of the H1N1 pandemic in the Americas is characterized using reports from PAHO member states from April 26th, 2009 through July 18th,2009 and it is found that reproductive number estimates were most associated with latitude in both univariate and multivariate analyses.

TL;DR: The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model that considers reactive, proactive, and hybrid methods of control which correspond to a mixture of policy and the ease of disease detection.

TL;DR: This model demonstrates that farms are heterogeneous in their propensity to transmit infection to other farms and, importantly, that it may be possible to identify holdings that are at high risk of spreading disease a priori.

TL;DR: The analysis suggests that the three genogroups A, B and C of Bartonella function as independent species but the variants within each genogroup enjoy some cross-immunity against each other.

TL;DR: It is concluded that environmental transmission can affect the patterns of coexistence predicted by direct transmission models in complex ways.

TL;DR: A within-host mathematical model with a spatial back-calculation method is combined to investigate the effects of a number of important response variables, including how previously reported levels of adherence with taking antibiotics might affect the total outbreak size compared to assuming full adherence.

TL;DR: An agent-based model of a host population, in which an HIV-1 like virus adapts to the antigen presentation pathway of individual hosts, as the virus spreads through the population, found that due to the polymorphism and high specificity of the MHC class I molecules, the CTL epitopes that are targeted by theCTL responses of different hosts do not share many epitope precursors.

TL;DR: Comparison with known potent combination therapies suggests that PCA helps to identify combinations that act synergistically in preventing the emergence of resistance, and it is found that relative fitness is mainly drug-independent and that drug-specific effects are substantially bigger than class- specific effects for NRTIs, but not for NNRTIs or PIs.

TL;DR: The analysis identified a low prevalence of immunization among commuters, and given the transmissibility in that setting, targeting commuters for vaccination campaigns may impede influenza spread.