Showing papers in "ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management in 2006"

Exploratory Innovation, Exploitative Innovation, and Performance: Effects of Organizational Antecedents and Environmental Moderators

Abstract: textResearch on exploration and exploitation is burgeoning, yet our understanding of the antecedents and consequences of both activities remains rather unclear. We advance the growing body of literature by focusing on the apparent differences of exploration and exploitation and examining implications for using formal (i.e. centralization and formalization) and informal (i.e. connectedness) coordination mechanisms. This study further examines how environmental aspects (i.e. dynamism and competitiveness) moderate the effectiveness of exploratory and exploitative innovation. Results indicate that centralization negatively affects exploratory innovation while formalization positively influences exploitative innovation. Interestingly, connectedness within units appears to be an important antecedent of both exploratory and exploitative innovation. Furthermore, our findings reveal that pursuing exploratory innovation is more effective in dynamic environments whereas pursuing exploitative innovation is more beneficial to a unit’s financial performance in more competitive environments. Through this richer explanation and empirical assessment, we contribute to a greater clarity and better understanding of how ambidextrous organizations coordinate the development of exploratory and exploitative innovation in organizational units and successfully respond to multiple environmental conditions.

Design and Control of Warehouse Order Picking: a literature review

Abstract: textOrder picking has long been identified as the most labour-intensive and costly activity for almost every warehouse; the cost of order picking is estimated to be as much as 55% of the total warehouse operating expense. Any underperformance in order picking can lead to unsatisfactory service and high operational cost for its warehouse, and consequently for the whole supply chain. In order to operate efficiently, the orderpicking process needs to be robustly designed and optimally controlled. This paper gives a literature overview on typical decision problems in design and control of manual order-picking processes. We focus on optimal (internal) layout design, storage assignment methods, routing methods, order batching and zoning. The research in this area has grown rapidly recently. Still, combinations of the above areas have hardly been explored. Order-picking system developments in practice lead to promising new research directions.

On the Evolution of Trust, Distrust, and Formal Coordination and Control in Interorganizational Relationships: Towards an Integrative Framework

Abstract: textIn this article, we discuss the evolution of trust, distrust, and formal coordination and control in interorganizational relationships. We suggest that the degrees to which managers trust and distrust their partners during initial stages of cooperation leave strong imprints on the development of these relationships in later stages of collaboration. This derives from the impact of trust and distrust on: (1) formal coordination and control; (2) interorganizational performance; and (3) the interpretations that managers attribute to the behavior of their partners. Collectively, our arguments give rise to a conceptual framework, which indicates that there is a high propensity for interorganizational relationships to develop along vicious or virtuous cycles. By integrating and reconciling previous work on the trust-control nexus, and by emphasizing the dynamics associated with it, the article contributes to a more comprehensive and refined understanding of the evolution of interorganizational cooperation.

The Nature of Power Spikes: a regime-switch approach

Abstract: textDue to its non-storable nature, electricity is a commodity with probably the most volatile spot prices, exemplified by occasional spikes. Appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models have to incorporate these characteristics, and the spikes in particular. We investigate the nature of power spikes in a number of different markets. We test what time-series model is best able to capture the dynamics of these disruptive spot prices. We use regime-switching models to infer whether the price spikes should be treated as abnormal and independent deviations from the ‘normal’ price dynamics or whether they form an integral part of the price process. We test the time-series models on day-ahead markets in Europe and the US. We find that regimeswitch models are better able to capture the market dynamics than a GARCH(1,1) or Poisson jump model. We also find clear differences between the markets and attribute part of the differences to the share of hydro-power in the total supply stack: hydro-power serves as an indirect means to store electricity, which has a dampening effect on spikes.

Interacting Dimensions of Diversity: Cross-Categorization and the Functioning of Diverse Work Groups

Abstract: textWe conducted an experiment to show how the interplay between informational diversity and other dimensions of diversity can account for some of the inconsistent effects of informational diversity in previous research. 70 four-person groups involved in a decision-making task received homogeneous or heterogeneous information. By manipulating gender composition and bogus personality feedback we created groups that either had a potential faultline (a basis for subgroup categorization) or were homogeneous on these dimensions. In potential faultline groups, heterogeneity of information either converged with or cross-cut the other dimensions of diversity. Results showed that informational diversity enhanced group functioning when it was crossed rather than converged with the potential faultline.

Starting Anew: Entrepreneurial Intentions and Realizations Subsequent to Business Closure

Abstract: textWe know that most businesses fail. But what is not known is to what extent failed ex-entrepreneurs set up in business again. The objective of this article is to explore potential and realized serial entrepreneurship. Based on three disciplines – psychology, labour economics, and the sociology of careers – we formulated propositions to explain (potential) serial entrepreneurship. We tested these propositions empirically with a longitudinal database of 79 businesses that had closed within 5 years after start-up. A large majority of the ex-entrepreneurs maintained entrepreneurial intentions subsequent to business closure, while almost one in four business closures were followed by a new business (serial entrepreneurship). Our results show that the determinants of restart intention (potential serial entrepreneurship) and actual restart realization (realized serial entrepreneurship) are different. Ex-entrepreneurs who are young, who worked full-time in their prior business, and who recall their business management experience positively are likely to harbour restart intentions. Only ‘being located in an urban region’ transpired to have a significant effect on the start of a new business. Although entrepreneurial intentions are a necessary condition for the start of a new business, this study shows that the explanation of entrepreneurial intentions is distinct from the explanation of new business formation subsequent to business closure.

Moving in Social Circles – Social Circle Membership and Performance Implications

Abstract: textWe investigate social circles in intra-firm settings. First, we argue that social circles are inhabited by individuals whose attitudes display fit with the objectives of the social circle rather than more self-centered instrumentalism or calculation. For a test of this hypothesis, we distinguish between friendship circles and strategy-influence circles. We find that friendship circle membership is positively associated with attitudes that display empathic concern but negatively with more instrumental attitudes, whereas strategy-influence circle membership is positively associated with attitudes that display long-term ambition but negatively with attitudes that display short-term calculation. Second, we argue and find that membership of social circles affects individual performance (social circles foster the exchange of information, for which we find clear evidence), albeit not necessarily in a linear fashion. Our new insights into social circle membership and performance implications can guide individuals in seeking access to such social circles and can aid management in understanding and perhaps influencing intra-firm knowledge flows.

From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

Abstract: textMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with information asymmetry, and investigate the difference caused in the market dynamics between the discrete-time simulation and continuous-time, asynchronous simulation. We show that the characteristics of the market prices are different in the two cases, and observe that additional information is being revealed in the continuous-time, asynchronous models, which can be acted upon by the agents in such models. Since most financial markets are continuous and asynchronous in nature, our results indicate that explicit consideration of this fundamental characteristic of financial markets cannot be ignored in their agent-based modelling.

Stochastic Improvement of Cyclic Railway Timetables

Abstract: Real-time railway operations are subject to stochastic disturbances. However, a railway timetable is a deterministic plan. Thus a timetable should be designed in such a way that it can cope with the stochastic disturbances as well as possible. For that purpose, a timetable usually contains time supplements in several process times and buffer times between pairs of consecutive trains. This paper describes a Stochastic Optimization Model that can be used to allocate the time supplements and the buffer times in a given timetable in such a way that the timetable becomes maximally robust against stochastic disturbances. The Stochastic Optimization Model was tested on several instances of NS Reizigers, the main operator of passenger trains in the Netherlands. Moreover, a timetable that was computed by the model was operated in practice in a timetable experiment on the so-called “Zaanlijn”. The results show that the average delays of trains can often be reduced significantly by applying relatively small modifications to a given timetable.

Data Scaling for Operational Risk Modelling

Abstract: textIn 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision defined Operational Risk (OR) as the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. After publication of the new capital accord containing this dfinition, statistical properties of OR losses have attracted considerable attention in the financial industry since financial institutions have to quantify their exposures towards OR events. One of the major topics related to loss data is the non-availability of a suficient amount of data within the Financial Institutions. This paper describes a way to circumvent the problem of data availability by proposing a scaling mechanism that enables an organization to put together data originating from several business units, each one having its specific characteristics like size and exposure towards operational risk. The same scaling mechanism can also be used to enable an institution to include external data originating from other institutions into their own exposure calculations. Using both internal data from different business units and publicly available data from other (anonymous) institutions, we show that there is a strong relationship between losses incurred in one business unit respectively institution, and a specific size driver, in this case gross revenue. We study an appropriate scaling power law as a mechanism that explains this relationship. Having properly scaled the data from different business units, we also show how the resulting aggregated data set can be used to calculate the Value-at-OR for each business unit and present the principles of calculating the value of the OR capital charge according the minimal capital requirements of the Basel committee.

Interaction Between Shelf Layout and Marketing Effectiveness and Its Impact On Optimizing Shelf Arrangements

Abstract: textAllocating the proper amount of shelf space to stock keeping units [SKUs] is an increasingly relevant and difficult topic for managers. Shelf space is a scarce resource and it has to be distributed across a larger and larger number of items. It is in particular important because the amount of space allocated to a specific item has a substantial impact on the sales level of that item. This relation between shelf space and sales has been widely documented in the literature. However, besides the amount of space, the exact location of the SKU on the shelf is also an important moderator of sales. At the same time, the effectiveness of marketing instruments of an SKU may also depend on the shelf layout. In practice, retailers recognize that these dependencies exist. However, they often revert to rules of thumb to actually arrange their shelf layout. We propose a new model to optimize shelf arrangements in which we use a complete set of shelf descriptors. The goal of the paper is twofold. First of all, we aim to gain insight into the dependencies of SKU sales and SKU marketing effectiveness on the shelf layout. Second, we use these insights to improve the shelf layout in a practical setting. The basis of our model is a standard sales equation that explains sales from item-specific marketing-effect parameters and intercepts. In a Hierarchical Bayes fashion, we augment this model with a second equation that relates the effect parameters to shelf and SKU descriptors. We estimate the parameters of the two-level model using Bayesian methodology, in particular Gibbs sampling. Next, we optimize the total profit over the shelf arrangement. Using the posterior draws from our Gibbs sampling algorithm, we can generate the probability distribution of sales and profit in the optimization period for any feasible shelf arrangement. To find the optimal shelf arrangement, we use simulated annealing. This heuristic approach has proven to be able to effectively search an enormous solution space. Our results indicate that our model is able to fit and forecast the sales levels quite accurately. Next, when applying the simulated annealing algorithm to the shelf layout, we appear to be able to increase profits for all the stores analyzed. We compare our approach to commonly used shelf optimization rules of thumb. Most sensible rules of thumb also increase expected profits (although not as much as our optimization algorithm). In particular, it is beneficial to put high-margin items close to the beginning of the aisle (or the “racetrack"). Finally, we provide managerial implications and directions for further research.

The Role of Narrative Fiction and Semi-Fiction in Organizational Studies

Abstract: textIn this chapter, we discuss the use of narrative fiction and semi-fiction in organizational research and explore the strengths and weaknesses of these alternative approaches. We begin with an introduction reviewing the existing literature and clarifying what we mean by fiction and semi-fiction. We then present and discuss examples of fiction and semi-fiction focusing on how these approaches can be used in organizational research. We argue that fiction is more useful as a source of data and as a way of representing theory to an audience. Semi-fiction, on the other hand, provides a novel approach to the production and representation of theory. In both cases, researchers face a number of challenges, but also gain access to new and powerful techniques for developing insights into organizational topics.

Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

Abstract: textWe study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied.

Supply-Chain Culture Clashes in Europe. Pitfalls in Japanese Service Operations

Abstract: textJapanese companies value service and quality highly and they put much effort in realising this. However, survey research carried out in 2001 among senior managers of Japanese logistics companies in the Netherlands, indicated that these efforts do not result in significant performance differences compared to western companies. In this exploratory paper, we report of company visits and interviews with managers of Japanese logistics companies in Western Europe. They described a clash of cultures underlying their operations, prohibiting them from achieving performance excellence. The causes focus around two key factors: the unique concept of Japanese service, based on future rewards which are absent in Western Europe; different employment circumstances in Western Europe, which make Japanese human resource management ineffective, and the Japanese career development system which makes that Japanese managers do not always have the right focus in their job abroad. We conclude that Japanese subsidiaries in Western Europe should keep on nourishing their unequalled service standards, while simultaneously adapting to efficiency standards of Western business practices in order to become more successful in the future.

Solving Lotsizing Problems on Parallel Identical Machines Using Symmetry Breaking Constraints

Abstract: textProduction planning on multiple parallel machines is an interesting problem, both from a theoretical and practical point of view The parallel machine lotsizing problem consists of finding the optimal timing and level of production and the best allocation of products to machines In this paper we look at how to incorporate parallel machines in a Mixed Integer Programming model when using commercial optimization software More specifically, we look at the issue of symmetry When multiple identical machines are available, many alternative optimal solutions can be created by renumbering the machines These alternative solutions lead to difficulties in the branch-and-bound algorithm We propose new constraints to break this symmetry We tested our approach on the parallel machine lotsizing problem with setup costs and times, using a network reformulation for this problem Computational tests indicate that several of the proposed symmetry breaking constraints substantially improve the solution time, except when used for solving the very easy problems The results highlight the importance of creative modeling in solving Mixed Integer Programming problems

Much Ado About Nothing: A conceptual critique of CSR

Abstract: textCorporate social responsibility (CSR) as a nominal term clearly resonates with scholars and practitioners alike. As a scientific concept, however, it has often been criticized for its lack of definitional precision and poor measurement. In this paper we review and assess intensional and extensional definitions of the concept, as they have figured in the prior CSR literature. But we also go beyond these traditional review exercises by assessing the role (if any) of the concept in positive theorizing. The upshot of this analysis is that since the CSR concept adds nothing of value to existing frameworks in the field of management and organization, such as the economizing and legitimizing perspectives, it is best to discard it altogether.

A Theoretical Analysis of Cooperative Behavior in Multi-Agent Q-learning

Abstract: A number of experimental studies have investigated whether cooperative behavior may emerge in multi-agent Q-learning. In some studies cooperative behavior did emerge, in others it did not. This report provides a theoretical analysis of this issue. The analysis focuses on multi-agent Q-learning in iterated prisoner’s dilemmas. It is shown that under certain assumptions cooperative behavior may emerge when multi-agent Q-learning is applied in an iterated prisoner’s dilemma. An important consequence of the analysis is that multi-agent Q-learning may result in non-Nash behavior. It is found experimentally that the theoretical results derived in this report are quite robust to violations of the underlying assumptions.

The Impact of Client and Auditor Gender on Auditors' Judgments

Abstract: This study assesses the influence of client gender and auditor gender on auditors’ judgments. In an experimental task, a client offers unverified explanations as to why the auditor’s initial proposed adjusting journal entry (AJE) to lower the inventory value should not be recorded. The design includes one randomly manipulated variable (client gender: male or female) and one measured variable (auditor gender: male or female). The dependent variable assesses the influence of the client’s explanations on the auditor’s final proposed AJE recommendation. The results indicate that both male and female auditors exhibited a male-favorability; that is, they were persuaded more by a male than female client to change their initial AJE recommendation. Furthermore, female auditors were more influenced by a male client and less influenced by a female client than male auditors. Using an expert panel’s consensus opinion as a benchmark for the "best" solution, the male auditors were more accurate than female auditors, irrespective of client gender. Additional research will aid in substantiating, determining the limits, and generalizing the findings.

Leveraging Offshore IT Outsourcing by SMEs through Online Marketplaces

Abstract: textFollowing their larger counterparts, an increasing number of small firms outsource their IT tasks to lower cost offshore destinations. For small firms, however, offshore outsourcing is a difficult undertaking as it involves high transaction costs. Online marketplaces for IT services, which have recently become available to small firms, make offshore IT outsourcing more accessible and manageable, although differences in the marketplace design result in varying outcomes across the marketplaces. This has consequences for SME’s decision as to which online marketplace to use, because different markets may have different types of benefits and costs. This paper sets to analyze some of the similarities and differences between online marketplaces for IT services and their effects for small firms. First, we analyze if and how online marketplaces reduce small firms’ transaction costs in offshore IT outsourcing. Second, we examine the effects of market entry barriers on outcomes of online marketplaces and their implications for small firms. The results indicate that online marketplaces for IT services do reduce transaction costs for small firms in offshore outsourcing across ten specific market processes. More surprising, however, is the finding that the lower market entry barriers for suppliers result in lower prices for buyers without compromising other aspects of market performance.

An Integrated Approach to Single-Leg Airline Revenue Management: The Role of Robust Optimization

Abstract: In this paper we introduce robust versions of the classical static and dynamic single leg seat allocation models as analyzed by Wollmer, and Lautenbacher and Stidham, respectively These robust models take into account the inaccurate estimates of the underlying probability distributions As observed by simulation experiments it turns out that for these robust versions the variability compared to their classical counter parts is considerably reduced with a negligible decrease of average revenue

Shunting of Passenger Train Units: an Integrated Approach

Abstract: In this paper, we describe a new model for the Train Unit Shunting Problem. This model is capable of solving the matching and parking subproblems in an integrated manner, usually requiring a reasonable amount of computation time for generating acceptable solutions. Furthermore, the model incorporates complicating details from practice, such as trains composed of several train units and tracks that can be approached from two sides. Computation times are reduced by introducing the concept of virtual shunt tracks. Computational results are presented for real-life cases of NS Reizigers, the main Dutch passenger railway operator.

Irritation Due to Direct Mailings from Charities

Abstract: Direct mailing is the main tool that charities employ for fundraising. With increasing amounts of soliciting mailings and with the best donators receiving more mailings as a result of target selection, irritation might increase. As a result, such irritation could cause individuals to donate less, and hence reduce revenues for charities. We develop a conceptual model, which relates donating behavior to irritation and to mailing frequencies. We consider mailing frequencies relative to a reference point, which we call the maximum acceptance level. Furthermore, we allow for asymmetric effects of positive and negative differences with this maximum acceptance level, and hence we consider the effects of receiving excessive and acceptable amounts of mailings. To test our model empirically, we conduct a survey on charitable direct mailings and donating behavior among 213 respondents. We find that too many mailings do indeed lead to irritation, and that such irritation reduces annual donations.

Multidimensional Scaling with Regional Restrictions for Facet Theory: an Application to Levi's Political Protest Data

Abstract: textMultidimensional scaling (MDS) is often used for the analysis of correlation matrices of items generated by a facet theory design. The emphasis of the analysis is on regional hypotheses on the location of the items in the MDS solution. An important regional hypothesis is the axial constraint where the items from different levels of a facet are assumed to be located in different parallel slices. The simplest approach is to do an MDS and draw the parallel lines separating the slices as good as possible by hand. Alternatively, Borg and Shye (1995) propose to automate the second step. Borg and Groenen (1997, 2005) proposed a simultaneous approach for ordered facets when the number of MDS dimensions equals the number of facets. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that estimates an MDS solution subject to axial constraints without the restriction that the number of facets equals the number of dimensions. The algorithm is based on constrained iterative majorization of De Leeuw and Heiser (1980) with special constraints. This algorithm is applied to Levi’s (1983) data on political protests.

Valuation biases, error measures, and the conglomerate discount

Abstract: We investigate biases of valuation methods and document that these depend largely on the choice of error measure (percentage vs. logarithmic errors) used to compare valuation procedures. We analyze four multiple valuation methods (averaging with the arithmetic mean, harmonic mean, median, and the geometric mean) and three present value approaches (dividend discount model, discounted cash flow model, residual income model). Percentage errors generate a positive bias for most multiples, and they imply that setting company values equal to their book values often becomes the best valuation method. Logarithmic errors avoid unwanted consequences and imply that the median and the geometric mean are unbiased while the arithmetic mean is biased upward as much as the harmonic mean is biased downward. The dividend discount model dominates the DCF-model only for percentage errors, while the opposite is true for logarithmic errors. The residual income model is optimal for both error measures.

Performance Evaluation of Real-time Scheduling Approaches in Vehicle-based Internal Transport Systems

Abstract: textThis paper studies the performance of static and real-time scheduling approaches in vehicle-based internal transport (VBIT) systems, which can be found in manufacturing and warehouse facilities. We propose three heuristic approaches for static VBIT problems (insertion, combined and column generation), extend them to a dynamic, real-time setting and compare their performance over a rolling time horizon. This time horizon can be seen either as a fixed-time interval in which advance information about loads’ arrivals is available, or as a fixed number of loads which are known to become available in the near future. We also propose two dynamic assignment approaches: with and without look-ahead, respectively. Performance (primarily average load waiting time) of the above five dynamic scheduling approaches is compared with two nearest-vehicle-first rules (with and without look-ahead), which are the best vehicle dispatching rules known from literature and which are commonly used in practice. Experimental results show that, if sufficient prior information is available, our dynamic scheduling approaches consistently outperform vehicle dispatching rules. Results also reveal that guide-path layout, load arrival rate and variance, and amount of load pre-arrival information have strong impacts on the performance of vehicle control approaches. Column generation or the combined heuristics are recommended in small or medium-scale VBIT systems, whereas for large scale VBIT systems, both the combined heuristic and the dynamic assignment approach with look ahead perform best.

Dynamic and Competitive Effects of Direct Mailings

Abstract: textWe propose a dynamic direct mailing response model with competitive effects, where purchase and promotion history are incorporated. We then map the dynamic competitive interactions amongst the firms sending the mailings. We investigate the short- and long-run impact of a direct mailing on the revenues of the firm sending the mailing and on the revenues of its competitors. The model accounts for unobserved heterogeneity across households. We estimate the model in the charitable giving setting, as sending direct mailings represents a large part of charitable fundraising activity. Households often receive direct mailings of different charities within a short period of time and competition is highly relevant. We construct a unique database by merging the databases of three large charity organizations in the Netherlands. This results in household level data on the direct mailings received and the donations made by each household to each charity. Our results show that charitable direct mailings are short-run complements, that is, the direct mailings tend to increase the total pie that is divided among the charities. At the same time, the charitable direct mailings are long-run substitutes. In the long run they fight for a piece of the pie that households have available for charitable giving.

Buyer Commitment and Opportunism in the Online Market for IT Services

Abstract: textCompanies increasingly outsource IT-related tasks using reverse auction mechanisms embedded into online marketplaces. However, a considerable proportion of auctions at these marketplaces do not result in a contract between buyer and supplier. Extant literature mostly refers to costly bidding and bid evaluation to explain this phenomenon. Another possible explanation is that because of the low entry barriers, buyers with a low commitment to exchange can use the marketplace solely for information gath-ering purposes such as price benchmarking and obtaining free consultations, having little or no intention to contract a supplier. We test this explanation by looking at how different types of costs incurred by the buyer during the sourcing process, are related to the outcome of reverse auctions in terms of contract award. We argue that higher levels of search, preparation and negotiation costs are associated with higher commitment to exchange and find that opportunistic behaviour does indeed play a part in the non-contracted projects, while committed buyers are more likely to enter into a contract with a supplier. The hypotheses are tested on a sample of 2,574 reverse auctions at a leading online marketplace for IT services and further verified across projects of different value and different levels of buyer experience. On the practical side, we recommend setting up entry barriers for buyers with a low level of commitment.

Framing China: Transformation and Institutional Change

Abstract: textThe paper offers a frame for investigating the extent to which decentralisation, and subsequent locally chosen institutions shape private organisational and institutional innovation. To include the numerous locally based “economic regimes” matters as the resulting business system reflects political institution setting and private organisational innovation. Such a frame is a necessary first step for empirical studies attempting to explain the heterogeneity of China’s business systems, the emergence of hybrid organisations, and last but none the least, the different growth rates that can be observed across China.

Do Sophisticated Investors Believe in the Law of Small Numbers

Abstract: textBelievers in the law of small numbers tend to overinfer the outcome of a random process after a small series of observations. They believe that small samples replicate the probability distribution properties of the population. We provide empirical evidence indicating that investors are mistakenly driven by this psychological bias when hiring or firing a fund manager after a successful (or losing) performance streak. Using quarterly data between 1994 and 2000 of 752 hedge funds, we analyze actual money flows into and out of hedge funds and their relationship with the length of the streak. We first show that persistence patterns have a predictive ability of future relative performance of a manager: the longer the winner streak, the larger the probability for a fund to remain a winner. Investors, in turn, appear to be aware of quality dispersion across managers and respond by following a momentum strategy: the longer the winning (losing) streak, the more likely they will invest in (divest from) that fund. Yet, we find that investors place excessive weight in the managers’ track record as a criterion for decision. Our model shows that the length of the streak has an economically and statistically significant impact on money flows beyond rationally expected performance, which confirms a “hot-hand” bias driving to a large extent momentum investing. Apparently, even sophisticated investors exhibit psychological biases that may have adverse effects on their wealth.

E-Fulfillment and Multi-Channel Distribution – A Review

Abstract: textThis review addresses the specific supply chain management issues of Internet fulfillment in a multi-channel environment. It provides a systematic overview of managerial planning tasks and reviews corresponding quantitative models. In this way, we aim to enhance the understanding of multi-channel e-fulfillment and to identify gaps between relevant managerial issues and academic literature, thereby indicating directions for future research. One of the recurrent patterns in today’s e-commerce operations is the combination of ‘bricks-and-clicks’, the integration of e-fulfillment into a portfolio of multiple alternative distribution channels. From a supply chain management perspective, multi-channel distribution provides opportunities for serving different customer segments, creating synergies, and exploiting economies of scale. However, in order to successfully exploit these opportunities companies need to master novel challenges. In particular, the design of a multi-channel distribution system requires a constant trade-off between process integration and separation across multiple channels. In addition, sales and operations decisions are ever more tightly intertwined as delivery and after-sales services are becoming key components of the product offering.