Showing papers in "ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management in 2014"

A railway timetable rescheduling approach for handling large scale disruptions

Abstract: On a daily basis, relatively large disruptions require infrastructure managers and railway operators to reschedule their railway timetables together with their rolling stock and crew schedules. This research focuses on timetable rescheduling for passenger trains at a macroscopic level in a railway network. An integer programming model is formulated for solving the timetable rescheduling problem, which minimizes the number of cancelled and delayed trains while adhering to infrastructure and rolling stock capacity constraints. The possibility of rerouting trains in order to reduce the number of cancelled and delayed trains is also considered. In addition, all stages of the disruption management process (from the start of the disruption to the time the normal situation is restored) are taken into account. Computational tests of the described model on a heavily used part of the Dutch railway network show that we are able to find optimal solutions in short computation times. This makes the approach applicable for use in practice.

Modeling and Design of Container Terminal Operations

Abstract: textDesign of container terminal operations is complex because multiple factors affect the operational perfor- mance. These factors include: topological constraints, a large number of design parameters and settings, and stochastic interactions that interplay among the quayside, vehicle transport, and stackside processes. In this research, we propose new integrated queuing network models for rapid design evaluation of container terminals with Automated Lift Vehicles (ALVs) and Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs). These models offer the flexibility to analyze alternate design variations and develop insights. For instance, the effect of alternate vehicle dwell point policy is analyzed using state-dependent queues, whereas the efficient terminal layout is determined using variation in the service time expressions at the stations. Further, using embedded Markov chain analysis, we develop an approximate procedure for analyzing bulk container arrivals. These models form the building block for design and analysis of large-scale terminal operations. We test the model efficacy using detailed in-house simulation experiments and real-terminal validation by partnering with an external party.

The 2014 Power Trading Agent Competition

Abstract: This is the specification for the Power Trading Agent Competition for 2014 (Power TAC 2014). Power TAC is a competitive simulation that models a “liberalized” retail electrical energy market, where competing business entities or “brokers” offer energy services to customers through tariff contracts, and must then serve those customers by trading in a wholesale market. Brokers are challenged to maximize their profits by buying and selling energy in the wholesale and retail markets, subject to fixed costs and constraints. Costs include fees for publication and withdrawal of tariffs, and distribution fees for transporting energy to their contracted customers. Costs are also incurred whenever there is an imbalance between a broker’s total contracted energy supply and demand within a given time slot. The simulation environment models a wholesale market, a regulated distribution utility, and a population of energy customers, situated in a real location on Earth during a specific period for which weather data is available. The wholesale market is a relatively simple call market, similar to many existing wholesale electric power markets, such as Nord Pool in Scandinavia or FERC markets in North America, but unlike the FERC markets we are modeling a single region, and therefore we model locational-marginal pricing through a simple manipulation of the wholesale supply curve. Customer models include households, electric vehicles, and a variety of commercial and industrial entities, many of which have production capacity such as solar panels or wind turbines. All have “real-time” metering to support allocation of their hourly supply and demand to their subscribed brokers, and all are approximate utility maximizers with respect to tariff selection, although the factors making up their utility functions may include aversion to change and complexity that can retard uptake of marginally better tariff offers. The distribution utility models the regulated natural monopoly that owns the regional distribution network, and is responsible for maintenance of its infrastructure. Real-time balancing of supply and demand is managed by a market-based mechanism that uses economic incentives to encourage brokers to achieve balance within their portfolios of tariff subscribers and wholesale market positions, in the face of stochastic customer behaviors and weather-dependent renewable energy sources. The broker with the highest bank balance at the end of the simulation wins.

Optimal Stack Layout in a Sea Container Terminal with Automated Lifting Vehicles

Abstract: textContainer terminal performance is largely determined by its design decisions, which include the number and type of quay cranes (QCs), stack cranes (SCs), transport vehicles, vehicle travel path, and stack layout. The terminal design process is complex because it is affected by factors such as topological constraints, stochastic interactions among the quayside, vehicle transport and stackside operations. Further, the orientation of the stack layout (parallel or perpendicular to the quayside) plays an important role in the throughput time performance of the terminals. Previous studies in this area typically use deterministic optimization or probabilistic travel time models to analyze the effect of stack layout on terminal throughput times, and ignore the stochastic interactions among the resources. It is unclear if stochastic interactions have an impact on the optimal stack layout. In this research, we capture the stochasticity with an integrated queuing network modeling approach to analyze the performance of container terminals with parallel stack layout using automated lifting vehicles (ALVs). Using this model, we investigate 1008 parallel stack layout configurations in terms of throughput times and determine the optimal stack layout configuration. We also find that, assuming an identical width of the internal transport area, container terminals with parallel stack layout perform better (from 4% - 12% in terms of container throughput times) than terminals with a perpendicular stack layout.

Sea Container Terminals

Abstract: Due to a rapid growth in world trade and a huge increase in containerized goods, sea container terminals play a vital role in globe-spanning supply chains. Container terminals should be able to handle large ships, with large call sizes within the shortest time possible, and at competitive rates. In response, terminal operators, shipping liners, and port authorities are investing in new technologies to improve container handling infrastructure and operational efficiency. Container terminals face challenging research problems which have received much attention from the academic community. The focus of this paper is to highlight the recent developments in the container terminals, which can be categorized into three areas: (1) innovative container terminal technologies, (2) new OR directions and models for existing research areas, and (3) emerging areas in container terminal research. By choosing this focus, we complement existing reviews on container terminal operations.

Shuttle Planning for Link Closures in Urban Public Transport Networks

Abstract: Urban Public Transport systems must periodically close certain links for main- tenance, which can have significant effects on the service provided to passengers. In practice, the effects of closures are mitigated by replacing the link with a simple shuttle service. However, alternative shuttle services could reduce inconvenience at lower op- erating cost. This paper proposes a model to select shuttle lines and frequencies under budget constraints. A new formulation is proposed that allows a minimal frequency restriction on any line that is operated, and minimizes passenger inconvenience cost, including transfers and frequency-dependent waiting time. This model is applied to a shuttle design problem based on a real world case study of the MBTA network of Boston (USA). The results show that additional shuttle routes can reduce passenger delay in comparison to the standard industry practice, while also distributing delay more equally over passengers, at the same operating budget. The results are robust under different assumptions about passenger route choice behavior. Computational experiments show that the proposed formulation, coupled with a preprocessing step, can be solved faster than prior formulations.

A simple derivation of the waiting time distributions in a non-preemptive M/M/c queue with priorities

Abstract: In this article we give a new derivation for the waiting time distributions in an M=M=c queue with multiple priorities and a common service rate by using elementary lattice paths counting. An advantage of the approach is that it does not require inversion of the Laplace-Stieltjes transform.

The Need for Market Segmentation in Buy-Till-You-Defect Models

Abstract: textBuy-till-you-defect [BTYD] models are built for companies operating in a non- contractual setting to predict customers’ transaction frequency, amount and timing as well as customer lifetime. These models tend to perform well, although they often predict unrealistically long lifetimes for a substantial fraction of the customer base. This obvious lack of face validity limits the adoption of these models by practitioners. Moreover, it highlights a flaw in these models. Based on a simulation study and an empirical analysis of different datasets, we argue that such long lifetime predictions can result from the existence of multiple segments in the customer base. In most cases there are at least two segments: one consisting of customers who purchase the service or product only a few times and the other of those who are frequent purchasers. Customer heterogeneity modeling in the current BTYD models is insufficient to account for such segments, thereby producing unrealistic lifetime predictions. We present an extension over the current BTYD models to address the extreme lifetime prediction issue where we allow for segments within the customer base. More specifically, we consider a mixture of log-normals distribution to capture the heterogeneity across customers. Our model can be seen as a variant of the hierarchical Bayes [HB] Pareto/NBD model. In addition, the proposed model allows us to relate segment membership as well as within segment customer heterogeneity to selected customer characteristics. Our model, therefore, also increases the explanatory power of BTYD models to a great extent. We are now able to evaluate the impact of customers’ characteristics on the membership probabilities of different segments. This allows, for example, one to a-priori predict which customers are likely to become frequent purchasers. The proposed model is compared against the benchmark Pareto/NBD model (Schmittlein, Morrison, and Colombo 1987) and its HB extension (Abe 2009) on simulated datasets as well as on a real dataset from a large grocery e-retailer in a Western European country. Our BTYD model indeed provides a useful customer segmentation that allows managers to draw conclusions on how customers’ purchase and defection behavior are associated with their shopping characteristics such as basket size and the delivery fee paid.

Comparison of two methods for customer differentiation

Abstract: textIn response to customer specific time guarantee requirements, service providers can offer differentiated ser- vices. However, conventional customer differentiation methods often lead to high holding costs and may have some practical drawbacks. We compare two customer differentiation policies: stock reservation and pipeline stock priority for high priority customers. We derive exact analytical expressions of the waiting time distri- bution of both types of customers for a stock reservation policy. We then provide accurate approximation methods for a pipeline stock priority policy. By comparison, we offer insights concerning which method should be used under different service level requirements.