Showing papers in "Ethnopolitics in 2005"
TL;DR: The authors argues that the emerging norm of humanitarian military intervention, which is intended to prevent genocide and ethnic cleansing, perversely causes such violence through the dynamic of moral hazard, and develops a framework based on deterrence theory to explain why groups vulnerable to genocidal retaliation might provoke that outcome.
Abstract: This piece argues that the emerging norm of humanitarian military intervention, which is intended to prevent genocide and ethnic cleansing, perversely causes such violence through the dynamic of moral hazard. The norm, intended as a type of insurance policy against genocidal violence, unintentionally encourages disgruntled sub-state groups to rebel because they expect intervention to protect them from retaliation by the state. Actual intervention, however, is often too late or too feeble to prevent such retaliation. Thus, the norm causes some genocidal violence that otherwise would not occur. The piece starts by documenting the fact that historically most genocidal violence—unlike that of the Holocaust—has been retaliation against groups who threaten state authority. It then develops a framework based on deterrence theory to explain why groups vulnerable to genocidal retaliation might provoke that outcome. Next, it illustrates this dynamic in two cases from the 1990s: Bosnia and Kosovo. Following...
73 citations
TL;DR: This article examined the ethnic determinants of constituency delineations and voting patterns in West Malaysia over the past five general elections, paying particular attention to the ramifications of the 2002 re-delineation exercise.
Abstract: This paper examines the ethnic determinants of constituency delineations and voting patterns in West Malaysia over the past five general elections, paying particular attention to the ramifications of the 2002 re-delineation exercise. I show that the 2002 re-delineation exercise reduced markedly the ethnic bias of the electoral system yet increased the overall imbalance in constituency size. I then argue that the old electoral logic of small Malay-dominated rural constituencies, which tended to vote strongly for the Alliance/BN government (incumbent since independence), and large Chinese-dominated urban constituencies, which tended to vote more for the opposition, has become increasingly irrelevant thanks to Malay urbanization and shifting ethnic voting patterns. The paper thus concludes that the 2002 exercise represented the ‘correction’ of an increasing imbalance between the patterns of the government's electoral support and constituency delineations. Ethnic bias in the electoral system was subs...
45 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a discussion of power sharing institutions in terms of their short and long-term implications is presented, examining the possible lack of fit between power sharing as an incentive to reach agreements during the negotiation phase while proving a source of conflict during the longer-term consolidation phase.
Abstract: This article begins with a discussion of power-sharing institutions in terms of their short- and long-term implications, examining the possible lack of fit between power sharing as an incentive to reach agreements during the negotiation phase while proving a source of conflict during the longer-term consolidation phase. In the next section, I analyse Africa's real world experiences with power sharing, looking at the details of experiments in the 1990s after civil wars. I then discuss the question of reassuring weaker parties, linking the search for increased political, economic and strategic security during the negotiation phase with the changed circumstances that prevailed during the consolidation phase. Finally, in the conclusion, I probe the anticipated and unanticipated consequences that may follow from the adoption of power-sharing systems in Africa.
32 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors unpack and examine the descriptive and causal logic of the concept of moral hazard, which suggests that domestic groups which would not otherwise resort to political violence may be encouraged to do so by the prospect of outside support.
Abstract: Intervention may cause as well as calm internal wars. One way it may cause them is captured by the concept of moral hazard, which suggests that domestic groups which would not otherwise resort to political violence may be encouraged to do so by the prospect of outside support. In this piece we unpack and examine the descriptive and causal logic of that concept of moral hazard. First, we explore the links from our concept of moral hazard to more general social science concepts—perverse incentives, negative precedents and unintended consequences. Second, we focus on three key propositions embodied in that concept which explain how intervention may cause internal wars, and indicate empirical patterns which must obtain if the explanations are to be valid. These three are: 1) that the rebels' resort to political violence is induced by incentives created by the intervenor's actions—and not by a change in their underlying motivation; 2) that the result is harmful to the intervenor's goals and interests;...
30 citations
TL;DR: The authors deconstructs the classical self-determination discourse and argues that it serves to disenfranchise populations, instead of enfranchising them, resulting instead in prolonged and bloody internal armed conflicts.
Abstract: This article deconstructs the classical doctrine of self-determination, asserting that it serves to disenfranchise populations, instead of enfranchising them. Accordingly, self-determination discourse is not likely to satisfy those struggling for sovereign statehood, resulting instead in prolonged and bloody internal armed conflicts. The article then considers new state practice that accepts the application of self-determination in the sense of secession outside of the colonial context, but only under the very narrow criteria of the new doctrine of constitutional self-determination. Finally, the article asks whether a new generation of self-determination settlements is pointing a way out of the deadlock that is generated through the application of classical self-determination rules.
30 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a critique of the moral hazard theory of third-party interventions, arguing that such threats should affect the terms of settlement, not the likelihood of violence, and that cases where minority radicalization results from explicit or implicit encouragement by third parties should not count as evidence supporting the moral-hazard theory.
Abstract: This piece provides a critique of the moral-hazard theory of third-party interventions. While the author agrees with the proponents of the theory that threats of intervention may have radicalizing effects on a minority's behaviour by reducing its risks in carrying out violence, he argues that this is an incomplete causal argument, if what we are trying to explain is escalated violence and not just minority radicalization. This criticism is based on two claims in particular. First, if the minority and the state observe the same third-party threat, they should both adjust their bargaining calculations. This means that such threats should affect the terms of settlement, and not the likelihood of violence. Second, he argues that cases where the minority radicalization results from explicit or implicit encouragement by third parties should not count as evidence supporting the moral-hazard theory. An internally consistent moral-hazard account requires an explanation of why third parties were unable to ...
25 citations
TL;DR: The authors examine the emergence of new indigenous movements in Bolivia and how this was eventually reflected in the adoption of multiculturalist policies by the Bolivian state, and argue that it remains to be seen if the new presence of indigenous people in Bolivia's political arena points to a constructive incorporation.
Abstract: In recent years polarization along ethnic lines has become an important feature of Bolivian politics. In this article we examine the emergence of new indigenous movements in Bolivia and how this was eventually reflected in the adoption of multiculturalist policies by the Bolivian state. However, in an overall context of neoliberal economic policy and a party system that suffered a ‘representation deficit’, such policies may celebrate cultural pluralism while stopping short of addressing issues of the redistribution of power and resources. This provided the context for a series of popular protests in which indigenous people played a prominent role and which eventually carried over into the 2002 general elections. We argue that it remains to be seen if the new presence of indigenous people in Bolivia's political arena points to a constructive incorporation.
24 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of electoral systems have been broadly investigated in the literature, and it has been shown that proportional systems in divided societies have a higher level of good governance than divided countries with more majoritarian characteristics.
Abstract: The effects of electoral systems have been broadly investigated in the literature. Lijphart (1999) recommended PR systems for all countries, and argued that majority rule has to be avoided, primarily in divided societies. It has, however, not yet been investigated whether his findings can be extended to both new democracies and divided societies. This article shows that PR systems should indeed be promoted, especially in divided countries. Proportional systems in divided societies have a higher level of good governance than divided countries with more majoritarian characteristics.
22 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a three-fold critique of the theory of moral hazard and present a series of empirical objections to the literature, especially as it applies to the cases in the Balkans.
Abstract: This piece presents a three-fold critique of the theory of moral hazard. It begins with an examination of the core concepts of the theory—perverse incentives, negative precedents, norms, and provocation—and argues that these concepts are often used in conflicting and contradictory ways within the emerging literature on moral hazard. A second critique identifies several methodological problems. In particular, the literature relies heavily on a few cases to illustrate the utility of the theory. In doing so it suffers from selection bias and generates spurious findings. The third critique presents a series of empirical objections to the literature, especially as it applies to the cases in the Balkans. This criticism begins by challenging the evidence of a causal connection between international norms, perverse incentives and the ethnic wars in Bosnia in 1992 and in Kosovo in 1998–99. The piece concludes with a discussion of recent studies which show that, while there was a rise in regional and civil...
21 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that the prospect of intervention might indeed make violence more likely, but for reasons that have little to do with what is commonly called moral hazard, and they argue that an analysis of those decisions implies that the possibility of intervention may indeed increase violence.
Abstract: Some scholars have argued that expectations of humanitarian military intervention might actually increase the incidence of intrastate violence, and have invoked the concept of moral hazard from the economics literature on insurance and government regulation to explain why. However, the term ‘moral hazard’ is no substitute for a careful analysis of how expectations of intervention might influence the decisions made by participants in intrastate conflicts. I argue that an analysis of those decisions implies that the prospect of intervention might indeed make violence more likely, but for reasons that have little to do with what is commonly called moral hazard.
21 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared the assertions of advocates of consensual and majoritarian democracy with the actual parliamentary representation of minorities in each country and concluded that the effects of electoral system design on minority representation are neither negligible nor decisive.
Abstract: On the basis of an examination of the results of parliamentary elections in Slovakia and Macedonia from 1990 to 2002, this paper juxtaposes the assertions of advocates of consensual and majoritarian democracy with the actual parliamentary representation of minorities in each country. Attending on the one hand to the parliamentary representation of each country's largest minority population, and, on the other hand, to the parliamentary representation of Roms, the paper also makes note of considerations underlying innovations in the Slovak and Macedonian electoral systems since the first post-communist elections. It concludes that the effects of electoral system design on minority representation are neither negligible nor decisive.
TL;DR: The authors developed a formal model of moral hazard and evaluated its utility for the study of conflict management, concluding that moral hazards only occur when there is an opportunity for agents to take "hidden actions" and this is seldom the case where humanitarian intervention is concerned.
Abstract: This piece develops a formal model of moral hazard and evaluates its utility for the study of conflict management. Although the concept of moral hazard is perhaps heuristically useful, the analysis shows that it generally does not accurately describe the incentive structure produced by the conflict management activities of third parties. Moral hazards only occur when there is an opportunity for agents to take ‘hidden actions’, and this is seldom the case where humanitarian intervention is concerned. Thus, the application of moral hazard theory to conflict management may lead analysts and policy makers astray.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that when an existing pattern of conflict resolution has existed in a country for decades, it tends to remain the guiding line to accommodate tensions even when new types of conflicts emerge.
Abstract: Complying with the idea that institutions could be used “to manage conflict democratically in divided societies” (Belmont et al., 2002, p. 3), the Belgian state has reformed its institutions in the past 40 years to accommodate ethno-linguistic tensions between Dutch-speakers and French-speakers. While less frequently mentioned, electoral rules have also been adapted to this ‘ethnicization’ of Belgian politics. Interestingly, changes made to the electoral system for managing tensions between the two linguistic communities followed the core principles of consociationalism. This observation supports the idea that, when an existing pattern of conflict resolution has existed in a country for decades, it tends to remain the guiding line to accommodate tensions even when new types of conflicts emerge.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the Greek Cypriots' preferences for the structure of a solution are explored via an econometric analysis of recent public opinion survey data and found that preferences for a solution among Greek Cyprus are a function of age and attitudes toward coexisting with Turkish Cypriot.
Abstract: In April 2004 the Greek Cypriots rejected the Annan Plan in a referendum while the Turkish Cypriots accepted it. The Annan Plan was the UN's plan to reunite Cyprus into one federal state consisting of two equal constituent states, one Greek Cypriot and one Turkish Cypriot. The results of the referendum show that the Greek Cypriot electorate is a major stumbling block to accepting the UN's best offer for a solution to the Cyprus problem. In this article the Greek Cypriots' preferences for the structure of a solution are explored via an econometric analysis of recent public opinion survey data. The analysis finds that preferences for a solution among Greek Cypriots are a function of age and attitudes toward coexisting with Turkish Cypriots. The younger Greek Cypriots show a preference for separation of the two ethnicities, while those who are more optimistic regarding the ability of the two ethnicities to coexist show a preference for unification of the island.
TL;DR: In this article, a critique is made of the official discourse that multiracialism is internalized and entrenched in Singapore's political psyche and electoral process, and the layering of electoral system with other political objectives, such as administrative decentralization and ensuring the continued dominance of the ruling party, has undermined the effectiveness of electoral and spatial integration.
Abstract: This paper examines Singapore's innovations in electoral and spatial integration. In examining the Group Representation Constituency and the Ethnic Integration Policy, a critique is made of the official discourse that multiracialism is internalized and entrenched in Singapore's political psyche and electoral process. While the electoral and spatial integration policies are driven by the objective of enhancing multiracialism, their actual workings do not adequately advance the development of norms and values that would be truly supportive of the need for a multiracial legislature and an abiding commitment to multiracialism. The layering of the electoral system with other political objectives, such as administrative decentralization and ensuring the continued dominance of the ruling party, has undermined the effectiveness of electoral and spatial integration.
TL;DR: The authors argue that the partitionist position misidentifies ethnicity and demographics as the cause of conflicts, and argue that a more dynamic approach to examining conflict can better illustrate the complex and contingent emergence of the boundary activation mechanism that produces violence.
Abstract: A number of scholars have argued that the separation of ethnic groups is the best way to resolve ‘ethnic wars’, or wars in which the primary cleavage is coded as ethnic. This partitionist view identifies ethnic mixing as the root of conflict, and partitionists thus prescribe policies that will ‘unmix’ ethnic groups—the drawing of new borders and potential population transfers. This paper argues that the partitionist position misidentifies ethnicity and demographics as the cause of conflicts. Using examples from the war in Bosnia from 1992 to 1995, I demonstrate how a more dynamic approach to examining conflict can better illustrate the complex and contingent emergence of the boundary activation mechanism that produces violence. I conclude with an argument that policy prescriptions should incorporate dynamism into their structures. The Dayton Agreement's durability nearly 10 years after the war's end demonstrates the merits of flexible policies, as opposed to the draconian measures prescribed by t...
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TL;DR: Engelking et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the experience of the Holocaust and its consequences through personal narratives and found that it was difficult to understand the consequences of the actions of the Nazis.
Abstract: Holocaust and Memory: The Experience of the Holocaust and its Consequences—An Investigation Based on Personal Narratives B. Engelking (ed. G. S. Paulsson, trans. E. Harris) Leicester, Leicester Uni...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse the 2003 presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda and argue that these elections did not overcome ethnic political dynamics and only modestly advanced the democratization ethos.
Abstract: The democratization process in Rwanda has long been characterized by ethnic politics, punctuated by the 1993 genocide. The country's perennial efforts to venture into democratic governance via electoral practice appear to be pre-empted by the exclusionist and zero-sum nature of ethnic politics, especially in deeply divided societies. This paper sets out to analyse the nature of the 2003 presidential and parliamentary elections. While doing so, the article attempts to address two crucial concerns: 1) what was the impact of ethnic politics on the electoral process and results and 2) did these elections contribute to the democratization process in Rwanda? The article will argue that these elections did little to overcome ethnic political dynamics and only modestly advanced the democratization ethos. While the process and outcome were deemed ‘acceptable’ and a ‘first step in the right direction’, the exercise highlighted a number of challenges which the article attempts to analyse.
TL;DR: Divided societies around the world require specific institutional arrangements, including electoral rules, to accommodate diversity of interest in ways that can deal with social divisions in a non-convex manner.
Abstract: Divided societies around the world require specific institutional arrangements, including electoral rules, to accommodate diversity of interest in ways that can deal with social divisions in a non-...
TL;DR: In this paper, the complexities of British identity in Scotland and Wales were investigated using Q-methodology and six separate types of British identities were uncovered, three in each of Scotland and three in Wales.
Abstract: British identity is in flux, especially in Scotland and Wales, where devolution invites many Scots and Welsh to consider what it means to be British. This article employs Q-methodology to investigate the complexities of British identity in Scotland and Wales. Six separate types of British identity are uncovered, three each in Scotland and Wales. Analysis of the commonalties among these very different types of British identity outlines the ‘core’ of contemporary British identity. Furthermore, looking at the primary differences between positive and negative British attitudes suggests that the political parties in Scotland and Wales face significant, albeit very different, obstacles in getting voters to embrace their party's preferred vision of devolution, Britain, and British identity.
TL;DR: The concept of moral hazard has attracted controversy because it appears to impugn the motives and character of seemingly innocent victims as discussed by the authors, and it argues that, when people are protected by insurance, some of their actions may be questionable.
Abstract: The concept of moral hazard invites controversy because it appears to impugn the motives and character of seemingly innocent victims. It argues that, when people are protected by insurance, some of...
TL;DR: In this paper, a poll was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2004 to find out what the people there believe needs to be done to achieve reconciliation, economic self-sustainability and effective government in the future.
Abstract: Public opinion polling has been used in Northern Ireland, Macedonia and Cyprus to develop policies and agreements that have wide popular support. Using the same methods of inter-track public diplomacy, a poll was conducted in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2004 to find out what the people there believe needs to be done to achieve reconciliation, economic self-sustainability and effective government in the future. Apart from the controversial topic of responsibility for the war, the poll demonstrated a strong consensus on the way ahead, including municipal and constitutional reform, if undertaken in the context of economic development and EU accession. An ongoing programme of such research should help politicians, their electorate and the international community to achieve these objectives.
TL;DR: The conditions under which unique multiracial electoral victories occurred in the two neighbouring racially divided countries of Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana are discussed in this article, where the authors argue that there was an opening in the political party system in each country which permitted the rise of a new electoral force, and that it was driven by a new political class.
Abstract: This paper seeks to discuss the conditions under which unique multiracial electoral victories occurred in the two neighbouring racially divided countries of Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana. I argue that there was an opening in the political party system in each country which permitted the rise of a new electoral force, and that it was driven by a new political class. This class projected a national developmental model which was attractive to voters. The two models in both countries were quite dissimilar, and reflected the type of development and a confluence of economic factors that were unique to each country.
TL;DR: In Europe and Central Asia today there are some three million people who have been forcibly uprooted from their homes and communities as a result of ethnic conflict and tensions, but who, unlike refugees, remain within their own countries.
Abstract: In Europe and Central Asia today there are some three million people who have been forcibly uprooted from their homes and communities as a result of ethnic conflict and tensions, but who, unlike refugees, remain within their own countries. Safeguarding the security and welfare of these internally displaced persons (IDPs) is the responsibility first and foremost of their own government. IDPs are entitled to the same set of rights as non-displaced nationals, and for all citizens this includes the right to political participation. Around the world, however, internally displaced persons face a number of obstacles to exercising their right to vote. The disenfranchisement of the internally displaced not only infringes their rights, it exacerbates the social, political and economic marginalization that they typically experience. Most significantly, it deprives them of the ability to exercise democratic levers of influence over the decisions affecting their lives and thereby to press national and local a...
TL;DR: Citizenship and migration: Globalization and the Politics of Belonging as mentioned in this paper is a good book to read in the context of migration and citizenship. But it is not a comprehensive survey.
Abstract: Citizenship and Migration: Globalization and the Politics of Belonging Stephen Castles & Alastair Davidson Basingstoke, Palgrave, 2000, 272 pp., ISBN 0333643100 (hbk), 0333643097 (pbk) Citizenship ...