Showing papers in "Global Change Biology in 2011"

Temperature and soil organic matter decomposition rates – synthesis of current knowledge and a way forward

Abstract: The response of soil organic matter (OM) decomposition to increasing temperature is a critical aspect of ecosystem responses to global change The impacts of climate warming on decomposition dynamics have not been resolved due to apparently contradictory results from field and lab experiments, most of which has focused on labile carbon with short turnover times But the majority of total soil carbon stocks are comprised of organic carbon with turnover times of decades to centuries Understanding the response of these carbon pools to climate change is essential for forecasting longer-term changes in soil carbon storage Herein, we briefly synthesize information from recent studies that have been conducted using a wide variety of approaches In our effort to understand research to-date, we derive a new conceptual model that explicitly identifies the processes controlling soil OM availability for decomposition and allows a more explicit description of the factors regulating OM decomposition under different circumstances It explicitly defines resistance of soil OM to decomposition as being due either to its chemical conformation (quality )o r its physico-chemical protection from decomposition The former is embodied in the depolymerization process, the latter by adsorption/desorption and aggregate turnover We hypothesize a strong role for variation in temperature sensitivity as a function of reaction rates for both We conclude that important advances in understanding the temperature response of the processes that control substrate availability, depolymerization, microbial efficiency, and enzyme production will be needed to predict the fate of soil carbon stocks in a warmer world

Global and regional importance of the tropical peatland carbon pool

Abstract: Accurate inventory of tropical peatland is important in order to (a) determine the magnitude of the carbon pool; (b) estimate the scale of transfers of peat-derived greenhouse gases to the atmosphere resulting from land use change; and (c) support carbon emissions reduction policies. We review available information on tropical peatland area and thickness and calculate peat volume and carbon content in order to determine their best estimates and ranges of variation. Our best estimate of tropical peatland area is 441 025 km2 (?11% of global peatland area) of which 247 778 km2 (56%) is in Southeast Asia. We estimate the volume of tropical peat to be 1758 Gm3 (?18–25% of global peat volume) with 1359 Gm3 in Southeast Asia (77% of all tropical peat). This new assessment reveals a larger tropical peatland carbon pool than previous estimates, with a best estimate of 88.6 Gt (range 81.7–91.9 Gt) equal to 15–19% of the global peat carbon pool. Of this, 68.5 Gt (77%) is in Southeast Asia, equal to 11–14% of global peat carbon. A single country, Indonesia, has the largest share of tropical peat carbon (57.4 Gt, 65%), followed by Malaysia (9.1 Gt, 10%). These data are used to provide revised estimates for Indonesian and Malaysian forest soil carbon pools of 77 and 15 Gt, respectively, and total forest carbon pools (biomass plus soil) of 97 and 19 Gt. Peat carbon contributes 60% to the total forest soil carbon pool in Malaysia and 74% in Indonesia. These results emphasize the prominent global and regional roles played by the tropical peat carbon pool and the importance of including this pool in national and regional assessments of terrestrial carbon stocks and the prediction of peat-derived greenhouse gas emissions.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta-analysis of experimental manipulation.

Abstract: Global mean temperature is predicted to increase by 2–71C and precipitation to change across the globe by the end of this century. To quantify climate effects on ecosystem processes, a number of climate change experiments have been established around the world in various ecosystems. Despite these efforts, general responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in temperature and precipitation, and especially to their combined effects, remain unclear. We used metaanalysis to synthesize ecosystem-level responses to warming, altered precipitation, and their combination. We focused on plant growth and ecosystem carbon (C) balance, including biomass, net primary production (NPP), respiration, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem photosynthesis, synthesizing results from 85 studies. We found that experimental warming and increased precipitation generally stimulated plant growth and ecosystem C fluxes, whereas decreased precipitation had the opposite effects. For example, warming significantly stimulated total NPP, increased ecosystem photosynthesis, and ecosystem respiration. Experimentally reduced precipitation suppressed aboveground NPP (ANPP) and NEE, whereas supplemental precipitation enhanced ANPP and NEE. Plant productivity and ecosystem C fluxes generally showed higher sensitivities to increased precipitation than to decreased precipitation. Interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation tended to be smaller than expected from additive, single-factor effects, though low statistical power limits the strength of these conclusions. New experiments with combined temperature and precipitation manipulations are needed to conclusively determine the importance of temperature–precipitation interactions on the C balance of terrestrial ecosystems under future climate conditions.

Impact of tropical land-use change on soil organic carbon stocks - a meta-analysis

Abstract: Land-use changes are the second largest source of human-induced greenhouse gas emission, mainly due to deforestation in the tropics and subtropics. CO2 emissions result from biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) losses and may be offset with afforestation programs. However, the effect of land-use changes on SOC is poorly quantified due to insufficient data quality (only SOC concentrations and no SOC stocks, shallow sampling depth) and representativeness. In a global meta-analysis, 385 studies on land-use change in the tropics were explored to estimate the SOC stock changes for all major land-use change types. The highest SOC losses were caused by conversion of primary forest into cropland (−25%) and perennial crops (−30%) but forest conversion into grassland also reduced SOC stocks by 12%. Secondary forests stored less SOC than primary forests (−9%) underlining the importance of primary forests for C stores. SOC losses are partly reversible if agricultural land is afforested (+29%) or under cropland fallow (+32%) and with cropland conversion into grassland (+26%). Data on soil bulk density are critical in order to estimate SOC stock changes because (i) the bulk density changes with land-use and needs to be accounted for when calculating SOC stocks and (ii) soil sample mass has to be corrected for bulk density changes in order to compare land-use types on the same basis of soil mass. Without soil mass correction, land-use change effects would have been underestimated by 28%. Land-use change impact on SOC was not restricted to the surface soil, but relative changes were equally high in the subsoil, stressing the importance of sufficiently deep sampling.

Reconciling the optimal and empirical approaches to modelling stomatal conductance

Abstract: Models of vegetation function are widely used to predict the effects of climate change on carbon, water and nutrient cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Stomatal conductance, the process that governs plant water use and carbon uptake, is fundamental to such models. In this paper, we reconcile two long-standing theories of stomatal conductance. The empirical approach, which is most commonly used in vegetation models, is phenomenological, based on experimental observations of stomatal behaviour in response to environmental conditions. The optimal approach is based on the theoretical argument that stomata should act to minimize the amount of water used per unit carbon gained. We reconcile these two approaches by showing that the theory of optimal stomatal conductance can be used to derive a model of stomatal conductance that is closely analogous to the empirical models. Consequently, we obtain a unified stomatal model which has a similar form to existing empirical models, but which now provides a theoretical interpretation for model parameter values. The key model parameter, g1 ,i s predicted to increase with growth temperature and with the marginal water cost of carbon gain. The new model is fitted to a range of datasets ranging from tropical to boreal trees. The parameter g1 is shown to vary with growth temperature, as predicted, and also with plant functional type. The model is shown to correctly capture responses of stomatal conductance to changing atmospheric CO2, and thus can be used to test for stomatal acclimation to elevated CO2. The reconciliation of the optimal and empirical approaches to modelling stomatal conductance is important for global change biology because it provides a simple theoretical framework for analyzing, and simulating, the coupling between carbon and water cycles under environmental change.

The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields

Abstract: With current annual production at over 600 million tonnes, wheat is the third largest crop in the world behind corn and rice, and an essential source of carbohydrates for millions of people. While wheat is grown over a wide range of environments, it is common in the major wheat-producing countries for grain filling to occur when soil moisture is declining and temperature is increasing. Average global temperatures have increased over the last decades and are predicted to continue rising, along with a greater frequency of extremely hot days. Such events have already been reported for major wheat growing regions in the world. However, the direct impact of past temperature variability and changes in averages and extremes on wheat production has not been quantified. Attributing changes in observed yields over recent decades to a single factor such as temperature is not possible due to the confounding effects of other factors. By using simulation modelling, we were able to separate the impact of temperature from other factors and show that the effect of temperature on wheat production has been underestimated. Surprisingly, observed variations in average growing-season temperatures of ±2 °C in the main wheat growing regions of Australia can cause reductions in grain production of up to 50%. Most of this can be attributed to increased leaf senescence as a result of temperatures >34 °C. Temperature conditions during grain filling in the major wheat growing regions of the world are similar to the Australian conditions during grain filling. With average temperatures and the frequency of heat events projected to increase world-wide with global warming, yield reductions due to higher temperatures during the important grain-filling stage alone could substantially undermine future global food security. Adaptation strategies need to be considered now to prevent substantial yield losses in wheat from increasing future heat stress.

Phenology shifts at start vs. end of growing season in temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1982–2008

Abstract: Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982 2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982-1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000-2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January-April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out. Keywords: climate change, growing season, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), Northern Hemisphere, phenology,

Climate change and plant regeneration from seed

Abstract: At the core of plant regeneration, temperature and water supply are critical drivers for seed dormancy (initiation, break) and germination. Hence, global climate change is altering these environmental cues and will preclude, delay, or enhance regeneration from seeds, as already documented in some cases. Along with compromised seedling emergence and vigour, shifts in germination phenology will influence population dynamics, and thus, species composition and diversity of communities. Altered seed maturation (including consequences for dispersal) and seed mass will have ramifications on life history traits of plants. Predicted changes in temperature and precipitation, and thus in soil moisture, will affect many components of seed persistence in soil, e.g. seed longevity, dormancy release and germination, and soil pathogen activity. More/less equitable climate will alter geographic distribution for species, but restricted migratory capacity in some will greatly limit their response. Seed traits for weedy species could evolve relatively quickly to keep pace with climate change enhancing their negative environmental and economic impact. Thus, increased research in understudied ecosystems, on key issues related to seed ecology, and on evolution of seed traits in nonweedy species is needed to more fully comprehend and plan for plant responses to global warming.

A climatic basis for microrefugia: the influence of terrain on climate

Abstract: There is compelling evidence from glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary of the utilization of microrefugia. Microrefugia are sites that support locally favorable climates amidst unfavorable regional climates, which allow populations of species to persist outside of their main distributions. Knowledge of the location of microrefugia has important implications for climate change research as it will influence our understanding of the spatial distribution of species through time, their patterns of genetic diversity, and potential dispersal rates in response to climate shifts. Indeed, the implications of microrefugia are profound and yet we know surprisingly little about their climatic basis; what climatic processes can support their subsistence, where they may occur, their climatic traits, and the relevance of these locations for climate change research. Here I examine the climatic basis for microrefugia and assert that the interaction between regional advective influences and local terrain influences will define the distribution and nature of microrefugia. I review the climatic processes that can support their subsistence and from this climatic basis: (1) infer traits of the spatial distribution of microrefugia and how this may change through time; (2) review assertions about their landscape position and what it can tell us about regional climates; and (3) demonstrate an approach to forecasting where microrefugia may occur in the future. This synthesis highlights the importance of landscape physiography in shaping the adaptive response of biota to climate change.

Temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon after land-use change in the temperate zone ― carbon response functions as a model approach

Abstract: Land-use change (LUC) is a major driving factor for the balance of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the global carbon cycle. The temporal dynamic of SOC after LUC is especially important in temperate systems with a long reaction time. On the basis of 95 compiled studies covering 322 sites in the temperate zone, carbon response functions (CRFs) were derived to model the temporal dynamic of SOC after five different LUC types (mean soil depth of 30±6cm). Grassland establishment caused a long lasting carbon sink with a relative stock change of 128±23% and afforestation on former cropland a sink of 116±54%, 100 years after LUC (mean±95% confidence interval). No new equilibrium was reached within 120 years. In contrast, there was no SOC sink following afforestation of grasslands and 75% of all observations showed SOC losses, even after 100 years. Only in the forest floor, there was carbon accumulation of 0.38±0.04Mgha-1yr-1 in afforestations adding up to 38±4Mgha-1 labile carbon after 100 years. Carbon loss after deforestation (-32±20%) and grassland conversion to cropland (-36±5%), was rapid with a new SOC equilibrium being reached after 23 and 17 years, respectively. The change rate of SOC increased with temperature and precipitation but decreased with soil depth and clay content. Subsoil SOC changes followed the trend of the topsoil SOC changes but were smaller (25±5% of the total SOC changes) and with a high uncertainty due to a limited number of datasets. As a simple and robust model approach, the developed CRFs provide an easily applicable tool to estimate SOC stock changes after LUC to improve greenhouse gas reporting in the framework of UNFCCC. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Changes in satellite-derived vegetation growth trend in temperate and boreal Eurasia from 1982 to 2006

Abstract: Monitoring changes in vegetation growth has been the subject of considerable research during the past several decades, because of the important role of vegetation in regulating the terrestrial carbon cycle and the climate system. In this study, we combined datasets of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic factors to analyze spatio-temporal patterns of changes in vegetation growth and their linkage with changes in temperature and precipitation in temperate and boreal regions of Eurasia (> 23.5°N) from 1982 to 2006. At the continental scale, although a statistically significant positive trend of average growing season NDVI is observed (0.5 × 10−3 year−1, P = 0.03) during the entire study period, there are two distinct periods with opposite trends in growing season NDVI. Growing season NDVI has first significantly increased from 1982 to 1997 (1.8 × 10−3 year−1, P < 0.001), and then decreased from 1997 to 2006 (−1.3 × 10−3 year−1, P = 0.055). This reversal in the growing season NDVI trends over Eurasia are largely contributed by spring and summer NDVI changes. Both spring and summer NDVI significantly increased from 1982 to 1997 (2.1 × 10−3 year−1, P = 0.01; 1.6 × 10−3 year−1P < 0.001, respectively), but then decreased from 1997 to 2006, particularly summer NDVI which may be related to the remarkable decrease in summer precipitation (−2.7 mm yr−1, P = 0.009). Further spatial analyses supports the idea that the vegetation greening trend in spring and summer that occurred during the earlier study period 1982–1997 was either stalled or reversed during the following study period 1997–2006. But the turning point of vegetation NDVI is found to vary across different regions.

Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem

Abstract: In this article, we review evidence of how climate change has already resulted in clearly discernable changes in marine Arctic ecosystems. After defining the term ‘footprint’ and evaluating the availability of reliable baseline information we review the published literature to synthesize the footprints of climate change impacts in marine Arctic ecosystems reported as of mid-2009. We found a total of 51 reports of documented changes in Arctic marine biota in response to climate change. Among the responses evaluated were range shifts and changes in abundance, growth/condition, behaviour/phenology and community/regime shifts. Most reports concerned marine mammals, particularly polar bears, and fish. The number of well-documented changes in planktonic and benthic systems was surprisingly low. Evident losses of endemic species in the Arctic Ocean, and in ice algae production and associated community remained difficult to evaluate due to the lack of quantitative reports of its abundance and distribution. Very few footprints of climate change were reported in the literature from regions such as the wide Siberian shelf and the central Arctic Ocean due to the limited research effort made in these ecosystems. Despite the alarming nature of warming and its strong potential effects in the Arctic Ocean the research effort evaluating the impacts of climate change in this region is rather limited.

Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010

Abstract: Insular Southeast Asia experienced the highest level of deforestation among all humid tropical regions of the world during the 1990s. Owing to the exceptionally high biodiversity in Southeast Asian forest ecosystems and the immense amount of carbon stored in forested peatlands, deforestation in this region has the potential to cause serious global consequences. In this study, we analysed deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010 utilizing a pair of 250 m spatial resolution land cover maps produced with regional methodology and classification scheme. The results revealed an overall 1.0% yearly decline in forest cover in insular Southeast Asia (including the Indonesian part of New Guinea) with main change trajectories to plantations and secondary vegetation. Throughout the region, peat swamp forests experienced clearly the highest deforestation rates at an average annual rate of 2.2%, while lowland evergreen forests declined by 1.2%/yr. In addition, the analysis showed remarkable spatial variation in deforestation levels within the region and exposed two extreme concentration areas with over 5.0% annual forest loss: the eastern lowlands of Sumatra and the peatlands of Sarawak, Borneo. Both of these areas lost around half of their year 2000 peat swamp forest cover by 2010. As a whole this study has shown that deforestation has continued to take place on high level in insular Southeast Asia since the turn of the millennium. These on-going changes not only endanger the existence of numerous forest species endemic to this region, but they further increase the elevated carbon emissions from deforested peatlands of insular Southeast Asia thereby directly contributing to the rising carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Abstract: Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

A global review of the impacts of invasive cats on island endangered vertebrates

Abstract: Cats are generalist predators that have been widely introduced to the world’s ~179 000 islands. Once introduced to islands, cats prey on a variety of native species many of which lack evolved defenses against mammalian predators and can suffer severe population declines and even extinction. As islands house a disproportionate share of terrestrial biodiversity, the impacts of invasive cats on islands may have significant biodiversity impacts. Much of this threatened biodiversity can be protected by eradicating cats from islands. Information on the relative impacts of cats on different native species in different types of island ecosystems can increase the efficiency of this conservation tool. We reviewed feral cat impacts on native island vertebrates. Impacts of feral cats on vertebrates have been reported from at least 120 different islands on at least 175 vertebrates (25 reptiles, 123 birds, and 27 mammals), many of which are listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. A meta-analysis suggests that cat impacts were greatest on endemic species, particularly mammals and greater when non-native prey species were also introduced. Feral cats on islands are responsible for at least 14% global bird, mammal, and reptile extinctions and are the principal threat to almost 8% of critically endangered birds, mammals, and reptiles.

Net annual global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in Chinese double rice-cropping systems: a 3-year field measurement in long-term fertilizer experiments

Abstract: The impact of agricultural management on global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) is not well documented. A long-term fertilizer experiment in Chinese double rice-cropping systems initiated in 1990 was used in this study to gain an insight into a complete greenhouse gas accounting of GWP and GHGI. The six fertilizer treatments included inorganic fertilizer [nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer (NP), nitrogen and potassium fertilizer (NK), and balanced inorganic fertilizer (NPK)], combined inorganic/organic fertilizers at full and reduced rate (FOM and ROM), and no fertilizer application as a control. Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes were measured using static chamber method from November 2006 through October 2009, and the net ecosystem carbon balance was estimated by the changes in topsoil (0–20 cm) organic carbon (SOC) density over the 10-year period 1999–2009. Long-term fertilizer application significantly increased grain yields, except for no difference between the NK and control plots. Annual topsoil SOC sequestration rate was estimated to be 0.96 t C ha−1 yr−1 for the control and 1.01–1.43 t C ha−1 yr−1 for the fertilizer plots. Long-term inorganic fertilizer application tended to increase CH4 emissions during the flooded rice season and significantly increased N2O emissions from drained soils during the nonrice season. Annual mean CH4 emissions ranged from 621 kg CH4 ha−1 for the control to 1175 kg CH4 ha−1 for the FOM plots, 63–83% of which derived from the late-rice season. Annual N2O emission averaged 1.15–4.11 kg N2O–N ha−1 in the double rice-cropping systems. Compared with the control, inorganic fertilizer application slightly increased the net annual GWPs, while they were remarkably increased by combined inorganic/organic fertilizer application. The GHGI was lowest for the NP and NPK plots and highest for the FOM and ROM plots. The results of this study suggest that agricultural economic viability and GHGs mitigation can be simultaneously achieved by balanced fertilizer application.

Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe

Abstract: Natural disturbances like wildfire, windthrow and insect outbreaks are critical drivers of composition, structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. They are strongly climate-sensitive, and are thus likely to be distinctly affected by climatic changes. Observations across Europe show that in recent decades, forest disturbance regimes have intensified markedly, resulting in a strong increase in damage from wind, bark beetles and wildfires. Climate change is frequently hypothesized as the main driving force behind this intensification, but changes in forest structure and composition associated with management activities such as promoting conifers and increasing standing timber volume (i.e. ‘forest change’) also strongly influence susceptibility to disturbances. Here, we show that from 1958 to 2001, forest change contributed in the same order of magnitude as climate change to the increase in disturbance damage in Europe's forests. Climate change was the main driver of the increase in area burnt, while changes in forest extent, structure and composition particularly affected the variation in wind and bark beetle damage. For all three disturbance agents, damage was most severe when conducive weather conditions and increased forest susceptibility coincided. We conclude that a continuing trend towards more disturbance-prone conditions is likely for large parts of Europe's forests, and can have strong detrimental effects on forest carbon storage and other ecosystem services. Understanding the interacting drivers of natural disturbance regimes is thus a prerequisite for climate change mitigation and adaptation in forest ecosystem management.

Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies

Abstract: Land use and land cover data play a central role in climate change assessments. These data originate from different sources and inventory techniques. Each source of land use/cover data has its own domain of applicability and quality standards. Often data are selected without explicitly considering the suitability of the data for the specific application, the bias originating from data inventory and aggregation, and the effects of the uncertainty in the data on the results of the assessment. Uncertainties due to data selection and handling can be in the same order of magnitude as uncertainties related to the representation of the processes under investigation. While acknowledging the differences in data sources and the causes of inconsistencies, several methods have been developed to optimally extract information from the data and document the uncertainties. These methods include data integration, improved validation techniques and harmonization of classification systems. Based on the data needs of global change studies and the data availability, recommendations are formulated aimed at optimal use of current data and focused efforts for additional data collection. These include: improved documentation using classification systems for land use/cover data; careful selection of data given the specific application and the use of appropriate scaling and aggregation methods. In addition, the data availability may be improved by the combination of different data sources to optimize information content while collection of additional data must focus on validation of available data sets and improved coverage of regions and land cover types with a high level of uncertainty. Specific attention in data collection should be given to the representation of land management (systems) and mosaic landscapes.

Patterns of NPP, GPP, Respiration and NEP During Boreal Forest Succession

Abstract: We combined year-round eddy covariance with biometry and biomass harvests along a chronosequence of boreal forest stands that were 1, 6, 15, 23, 40, 74, and 154 years old to understand how ecosystem production and carbon stocks change during recovery from stand-replacing crown fire. Live biomass (Clive) was low in the 1 and 6 year old stands, and increased following a logistic pattern to high levels in the 74 and 154year old stands. Carbon stocks in the forest floor (Cforest floor) and coarse woody debris (CCWD) were comparatively high in the 1year old stand, reduced in the 6 through 40year old stands, and highest in the 74 and 154year old stands. Total net primary production (TNPP) was reduced in the 1 and 6year old stands, highest in the 23 through 74year old stands and somewhat reduced in the 154year old stand. The NPP decline at the 154year old stand was related to increased autotrophic respiration rather than decreased gross primary production (GPP). Net ecosystem production (NEP), calculated by integrated eddy covariance, indicated the 1 and 6 year old stands were losing carbon, the 15year old stand was gaining a small amount of carbon, the 23 and 74year old stands were gaining considerable carbon, and the 40 and 154year old stands were gaining modest amounts of carbon. The recovery from fire was rapid; a linear fit through the NEP observations at the 6 and 15year old stands indicated the transition from carbon source to sink occurred within 11-12 years. The NEP decline at the 154year old stand appears related to increased losses from Clive by tree mortality and possibly from Cforest floor by decomposition. Our findings support the idea that NPP, carbon production efficiency (NPP/GPP), NEP, and carbon storage efficiency (NEP/TNPP) all decrease in old boreal stands. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high‐altitude endemic species under climate change

Abstract: The expected upward shift of trees due to climate warming is supposed to be a major threat to range-restricted high-altitude species by shrinking the area of their suitable habitats. Our projections show that areas of endemism of five taxonomic groups (vascular plants, snails, spiders, butterflies, and beetles) in the Austrian Alps will, on average, experience a 77% habitat loss even under the weakest climate change scenario (+1.8 °C by 2100). The amount of habitat loss is positively related with the pooled endemic species richness (species from all five taxonomic groups) and with the richness of endemic vascular plants, snails, and beetles. Owing to limited postglacial migration, hotspots of high-altitude endemics are situated in rather low peripheral mountain chains of the Alps, which have not been glaciated during the Pleistocene. There, tree line expansion disproportionally reduces habitats of high-altitude species. Such legacies of climate history, which may aggravate extinction risks under future climate change have to be expected for many temperate mountain ranges.

Dissolved carbon leaching from soil is a crucial component of the net ecosystem carbon balance

Abstract: Estimates of carbon leaching losses from different land use systems are few and their contribution to the net ecosystem carbon balance is uncertain. We investigated leaching of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and dissolved methane (CH4), at forests, grasslands, and croplands across Europe. Biogenic contributions to DIC were estimated by means of its δ13C signature. Leaching of biogenic DIC was 8.3±4.9 g m−2 yr−1 for forests, 24.1±7.2 g m−2 yr−1 for grasslands, and 14.6±4.8 g m−2 yr−1 for croplands. DOC leaching equalled 3.5±1.3 g m−2 yr−1 for forests, 5.3±2.0 g m−2 yr−1 for grasslands, and 4.1±1.3 g m−2 yr−1 for croplands. The average flux of total biogenic carbon across land use systems was 19.4±4.0 g C m−2 yr−1. Production of DOC in topsoils was positively related to their C/N ratio and DOC retention in subsoils was inversely related to the ratio of organic carbon to iron plus aluminium (hydr)oxides. Partial pressures of CO2 in soil air and soil pH determined DIC concentrations and fluxes, but soil solutions were often supersaturated with DIC relative to soil air CO2. Leaching losses of biogenic carbon (DOC plus biogenic DIC) from grasslands equalled 5–98% (median: 22%) of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) plus carbon inputs with fertilization minus carbon removal with harvest. Carbon leaching increased the net losses from cropland soils by 24–105% (median: 25%). For the majority of forest sites, leaching hardly affected actual net ecosystem carbon balances because of the small solubility of CO2 in acidic forest soil solutions and large NEE. Leaching of CH4 proved to be insignificant compared with other fluxes of carbon. Overall, our results show that leaching losses are particularly important for the carbon balance of agricultural systems.

Massive mortality of aspen following severe drought along the southern edge of the Canadian boreal forest

Abstract: Drought-induced, regional-scale dieback of forests has emerged as a global concern that is expected to escalate under model projections of climate change. Since 2000, drought of unusual severity, extent, and duration has affected large areas of western North America, leading to regional-scale dieback of forests in the southwestern US. We report on drought impacts on forests in a region farther north, encompassing the transition between boreal forest and prairie in western Canada. A central question is the significance of drought as an agent of large-scale tree mortality and its potential future impact on carbon cycling in this cold region. We used a combination of plot-based, meteorological, and remote sensing measures to map and quantify aboveground, dead biomass of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) across an 11.5 Mha survey area where drought was exceptionally severe during 2001–2002. Within this area, a satellite-based land cover map showed that aspen-dominated broadleaf forests occupied 2.3 Mha. Aerial surveys revealed extensive patches of severe mortality (>55%) resembling the impacts of fire. Dead aboveground biomass was estimated at 45 Mt, representing 20% of the total aboveground biomass, based on a spatial interpolation of plot-based measurements. Spatial variation in percentage dead biomass showed a moderately strong correlation with drought severity. In the prairie-like, southern half of the study area where the drought was most severe, 35% of aspen biomass was dead, compared with an estimated 7% dead biomass in the absence of drought. Drought led to an estimated 29 Mt increase in dead biomass across the survey area, corresponding to 14 Mt of potential future carbon emissions following decomposition. Many recent, comparable episodes of drought-induced forest dieback have been reported from around the world, which points to an emerging need for multiscale monitoring approaches to quantify drought effects on woody biomass and carbon cycling across large areas.

Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

Abstract: To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop-growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop-simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate-change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate-related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

Nonlinear nitrous oxide (N2O) response to nitrogen fertilizer in on-farm corn crops of the US Midwest

Abstract: Row-crop agriculture is a major source of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally, and results from recent field experiments suggest that significant decreases in N2O emissions may be possible by decreasing nitrogen (N) fertilizer inputs without affecting economic return from grain yield. We tested this hypothesis on five commercially farmed fields in Michigan, USA planted with corn in 2007 and 2008. Six rates of N fertilizer (0–225 kg N ha−1) were broadcast and incorporated before planting, as per local practice. Across all sites and years, increases in N2O flux were best described by a nonlinear, exponentially increasing response to increasing N rate. N2O emission factors per unit of N applied ranged from 0.6% to 1.5% and increased with increasing N application across all sites and years, especially at N rates above those required for maximum crop yield. At the two N fertilizer rates above those recommended for maximum economic return (135 kg N ha−1), average N2O fluxes were 43% (18 g N2O–N ha−1 day−1) and 115% (26 g N2O–N ha−1 day−1) higher than were fluxes at the recommended rate, respectively. The maximum return to nitrogen rate of 154 kg N ha−1 yielded an average 8.3 Mg grain ha−1. Our study shows the potential to lower agricultural N2O fluxes within a range of N fertilization that does not affect economic return from grain yield.

Effect of precipitation variability on net primary production and soil respiration in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland

Abstract: Precipitation regimes are predicted to become more variable with more extreme rainfall events punctuated by longer intervening dry periods. Water-limited ecosystems are likely to be highly responsive to altered precipitation regimes. The bucket model predicts that increased precipitation variability will reduce soil moisture stress and increase primary productivity and soil respiration in aridland ecosystems. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally altered the size and frequency of precipitation events during the summer monsoon (July through September) in 2007 and 2008 in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Treatments included (1) ambient rain, (2) ambient rain plus one 20mm rain event each month, and (3) ambient rain plus four 5mm rain events each month. Throughout two monsoon seasons, we measured soil temperature, soil moisture content (y), soil respiration (Rs), along with leaf-level photosynthesis (Anet), predawn leaf water potential (Cpd), and seasonal aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of the dominant C4 grass, Bouteloua eriopoda. Treatment plots receiving a single large rainfall event each month maintained significantly higher seasonal soil y which corresponded with a significant increase in Rs and ANPP of B. eriopoda when compared with plots receiving multiple small events. Because the strength of these patterns differed between years, we propose a modification of the bucket model in which both the mean and variance of soil water change as a consequence of interannual variability from 1 year to the next. Our results demonstrate that aridland ecosystems are highly sensitive to increased precipitation variability, and that more extreme precipitation events will likely have a positive impact on some aridland ecosystem processes important for the carbon cycle.

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Abstract: Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Old and stable soil organic matter is not necessarily chemically recalcitrant: Implications for modeling concepts and temperature sensitivity

Abstract: Soil carbon turnover models generally divide soil carbon into pools with varying intrinsic decomposition rates. Although these decomposition rates are modified by factors such as temperature, texture, and moisture, they are rationalized by assuming chemical structure is a primary controller of decomposition. In the current work, we use near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy in combination with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and alkaline cupric oxide (CuO) oxidation to explore this assumption. Specifically, we examined material from the 2.3–2.6 kg L � 1 density fraction of three soils of different type (Oxisol, Alfisol, Inceptisol). The density fraction with the youngest 14 C age (Oxisol, 107 years) showed the highest relative abundance of aromatic groups and the lowest O-alkyl C/aromatic C ratio as determined by NEXAFS. Conversely, the fraction with the oldest C (Inceptisol, 680 years) had the lowest relative abundance of aromatic groups and highest O-alkyl C/aromatic C ratio. This sample also had the highest proportion of thermally labile materials as measured by DSC, and the highest ratio of substituted fatty acids to lignin phenols as indicated by CuO oxidation. Therefore, the organic matter of the Inceptisol sample, with a 14 C age associated with ‘passive’ pools of carbon (680 years), had the largest proportion of easily metabolizable organic molecules with low thermodynamic stability, whereas the organic matter of the much younger Oxisol sample (107 years) had the highest proportion of supposedly stable organic structures considered more difficult to metabolize. Our results demonstrate that C age is not necessarily related to molecular structure or thermodynamic stability, and we suggest that soil carbon models would benefit from viewing turnover rate as codetermined by the interaction between substrates, microbial actors, and abiotic driving variables. Furthermore, assuming that old carbon is composed of complex or ‘recalcitrant’ compounds will erroneously attribute a greater temperature sensitivity to those materials than they may actually possess.

Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience

Abstract: Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local-scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local-scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO2 and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral-dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth (calcification) by ocean acidification and warming, coral bleaching and mortality by warming, macroalgal mortality by herbivore grazing and macroalgal growth via nutrient loading. The model was run for changes in sea surface temperature and water chemistry predicted by the rise in atmospheric CO2 projected from the IPCC’s fossil-fuel intensive A1FI scenario during this century. Results demonstrated that severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience (via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality) even under high grazing intensity and low nutrients. Further, the threshold at which herbivore overfishing (reduced grazing) leads to a coral–algal phase shift was lowered by acidification and warming. These analyses support two important conclusions: Firstly, reefs already subjected to herbivore overfishing and nutrification are likely to be more vulnerable to increasing CO2. Secondly, under CO2 regimes above 450–500 ppm, management of local-scale disturbances will become critical to keeping reefs within an Acropora-rich domain.

Importance of denitrifiers lacking the genes encoding the nitrous oxide reductase for N2O emissions from soil

Abstract: Analyses of the complete genomes of sequenced denitrifying bacteria revealed that approximately 1/3 have a truncated denitrification pathway, lacking the nosZ gene encoding the nitrous oxide reductase. We investigated whether the number of denitrifiers lacking the genetic ability to synthesize the nitrous oxide reductase in soils is important for the proportion of N2O emitted by denitrification. Serial dilutions of the denitrifying strain Agrobacterium tumefaciens C58 lacking the nosZ gene were inoculated into three different soils to modify the proportion of denitrifiers having the nitrous oxide reductase genes. The potential denitrification and N2O emissions increased when the size of inoculated C58 population in the soils was in the same range as the indigenous nosZ community. However, in two of the three soils, the increase in potential denitrification in inoculated microcosms compared with the noninoculated microcosms was higher than the increase in N2O emissions. This suggests that the indigenous denitrifier community was capable of acting as a sink for the N2O produced by A. tumefaciens. The relative amount of N2O emitted also increased in two soils with the number of inoculated C58 cells, establishing a direct causal link between the denitrifier community composition and potential N2O emissions by manipulating the proportion of denitrifiers having the nosZ gene. However, the number of denitrifiers which do not possess a nitrous oxide reductase might not be as important for N2O emissions in soils having a high N2O uptake capacity compared with those with lower. In conclusion, we provide a proof of principle that the inability of some denitrifiers to synthesize the nitrous oxide reductase can influence the nature of the denitrification end products, indicating that the extent of the reduction of N2O to N2 by the denitrifying community can have a genetic basis.

Warming alters the size spectrum and shifts the distribution of biomass in freshwater ecosystems

Abstract: Organism size is one of the key determinants of community structure, and its relationship with abundance can describe how biomass is partitioned among the biota within an ecosystem. An outdoor freshwater mesocosm experiment was used to determine how warming of � 41C would affect the size, biomass and taxonomic structure of planktonic communities. Warming increased the steepness of the community size spectrum by increasing the prevalence of small organisms, primarily within the phytoplankton assemblage and it also reduced the mean and maximum size of phytoplankton by approximately one order of magnitude. The observed shifts in phytoplankton size structure were reflected in changes in phytoplankton community composition, though zooplankton taxonomic composition was unaffected by warming. Furthermore, warming reduced community biomass and total phytoplankton biomass, although zooplankton biomass was unaffected. This resulted in an increase in the zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio in the warmed mesocosms, which could be explained by faster turnover within the phytoplankton assemblages. Overall, warming shifted the distribution of phytoplankton size towards smaller individuals with rapid turnover and low standing biomass, resulting in a reorganization of the biomass structure of the food webs. These results indicate future environmental warming may have profound effects on the structure and functioning of aquatic communities and ecosystems.