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Showing papers in "Global Change Biology in 2012"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore how advances in quantitative analytical techniques have redefined the new understanding of SOM dynamics and how this is affecting the development and application of new modelling approaches to soil C.
Abstract: Mechanisms to mitigate global climate change by sequestering carbon (C) in different ‘sinks' have been proposed as at least temporary measures. Of the major global C pools, terrestrial ecosystems hold the potential to capture and store substantially increased volumes of C in soil organic matter (SOM) through changes in management that are also of benefit to the multitude of ecosystem services that soils provide. This potential can only be realized by determining the amount of SOM stored in soils now, with subsequent quantification of how this is affected by management strategies intended to increase SOM concentrations, and used in soil C models for the prediction of the roles of soils in future climate change. An apparently obvious method to increase C stocks in soils is to augment the soil C pools with the longest mean residence times (MRT). Computer simulation models of soil C dynamics, e.g. RothC and Century, partition these refractory constituents into slow and passive pools with MRTs of centuries to millennia. This partitioning is assumed to reflect: (i) the average biomolecular properties of SOM in the pools with reference to their source in plant litter, (ii) the accessibility of the SOM to decomposer organisms or catalytic enzymes, or (iii) constraints imposed on decomposition by environmental conditions, including soil moisture and temperature. However, contemporary analytical approaches suggest that the chemical composition of these pools is not necessarily predictable because, despite considerable progress with understanding decomposition processes and the role of decomposer organisms, along with refinements in simulation models, little progress has been made in reconciling biochemical properties with the kinetically defined pools. In this review, we will explore how advances in quantitative analytical techniques have redefined the new understanding of SOM dynamics and how this is affecting the development and application of new modelling approaches to soil C.

1,184 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown that there is no universal measure of impact and the pattern observed depends on the ecological measure examined, and some species traits, especially life form, stature and pollination syndrome, may provide a means to predict impact, regardless of the particular habitat and geographical region invaded.
Abstract: With the growing body of literature assessing the impact of invasive alien plants on resident species and ecosystems, a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between invasive species traits and environmental settings of invasion on the characteristics of impacts is needed. Based on 287 publications with 1551 individual cases that addressed the impact of 167 invasive plant species belonging to 49 families, we present the first global overview of frequencies of significant and non-significant ecological impacts and their directions on 15 outcomes related to the responses of resident populations, species, communities and ecosystems. Species and community outcomes tend to decline following invasions, especially those for plants, but the abundance and richness of the soil biota, as well as concentrations of soil nutrients and water, more often increase than decrease following invasion. Data mining tools revealed that invasive plants exert consistent significant impacts on some outcomes (survival of resident biota, activity of resident animals, resident community productivity, mineral and nutrient content in plant tissues, and fire frequency and intensity), whereas for outcomes at the community level, such as species richness, diversity and soil resources, the significance of impacts is determined by interactions between species traits and the biome invaded. The latter outcomes are most likely to be impacted by annual grasses, and by wind pollinated trees invading mediterranean or tropical biomes. One of the clearest signals in this analysis is that invasive plants are far more likely to cause significant impacts on resident plant and animal richness on islands rather than mainland. This study shows that there is no universal measure of impact and the pattern observed depends on the ecological measure examined. Although impact is strongly context dependent, some species traits, especially life form, stature and pollination syndrome, may provide a means to predict impact, regardless of the particular habitat and geographical region invaded.

1,067 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The hypothesis that N addition depresses soil microbial activity by shifting the metabolic capabilities of soil bacterial communities, yielding communities that are less capable of decomposing more recalcitrant soil carbon pools and leading to a potential increase in soil carbon sequestration rates is supported.
Abstract: Ecosystems worldwide are receiving increasing amounts of reactive nitrogen (N) via anthropogenic activities with the added N having potentially important impacts on microbially mediated belowground carbon dynamics. However, a comprehensive understanding of how elevated N availability affects soil microbial processes and community dynamics remains incomplete. The mechanisms responsible for the observed responses are poorly resolved and we do not know if soil microbial communities respond in a similar manner across ecosystems. We collected 28 soils from a broad range of ecosystems in North America, amended soils with inorganic N, and incubated the soils under controlled conditions for 1 year. Consistent across nearly all soils, N addition decreased microbial respiration rates, with an average decrease of 11% over the year-long incubation, and decreased microbial biomass by 35%. High-throughput pyrosequencing showed that N addition consistently altered bacterial community composition, increasing the relative abundance of Actinobacteria and Firmicutes, and decreasing the relative abundance of Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. Further, N-amended soils consistently had lower activities in a broad suite of extracellular enzymes and had decreased temperature sensitivity, suggesting a shift to the preferential decomposition of more labile C pools. The observed trends held across strong gradients in climate and soil characteristics, indicating that the soil microbial responses to N addition are likely controlled by similar wide-spread mechanisms. Our results support the hypothesis that N addition depresses soil microbial activity by shifting the metabolic capabilities of soil bacterial communities, yielding communities that are less capable of decomposing more recalcitrant soil carbon pools and leading to a potential increase in soil carbon sequestration rates.

954 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article showed that the percentage of the total phytoplankton biovolume attributable to cyanobacteria increases steeply with temperature, indicating a synergistic effect of nutrients and climate.
Abstract: Dominance by cyanobacteria hampers human use of lakes and reservoirs worldwide. Previous studies indicate that excessive nutrient loading and warmer conditions promote dominance by cyanobacteria, but evidence from global scale field data has so far been scarce. Our analysis, based on a study of 143 lakes along a latitudinal transect ranging from subarctic Europe to southern South America, shows that although warmer climates do not result in higher overall phytoplankton biomass, the percentage of the total phytoplankton biovolume attributable to cyanobacteria increases steeply with temperature. Our results also reveal that the percent cyanobacteria is greater in lakes with high rates of light absorption. This points to a positive feedback because restriction of light availability is often a consequence of high phytoplankton biovolume, which in turn may be driven by nutrient loading. Our results indicate a synergistic effect of nutrients and climate. The implications are that in a future warmer climate, nutrient concentrations may have to be reduced substantially from present values in many lakes if cyanobacterial dominance is to be controlled.

674 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Climate change and habitat loss are both key threatening processes driving the global loss in biodiversity. Yet little is known about their synergistic effects on biological populations due to the complexity underlying both processes. If the combined effects of habitat loss and climate change are greater than the effects of each threat individually, current conservation management strategies may be inefficient and at worst ineffective. Therefore, there is a pressing need to identify whether interacting effects between climate change and habitat loss exist and, if so, quantify the magnitude of their impact. In this article, we present a meta-analysis of studies that quantify the effect of habitat loss on biological populations and examine whether the magnitude of these effects depends on current climatic conditions and historical rates of climate change. We examined 1319 papers on habitat loss and fragmentation, identified from the past 20 years, representing a range of taxa, landscapes, land-uses, geographic locations and climatic conditions. We find that current climate and climate change are important factors determining the negative effects of habitat loss on species density and/or diversity. The most important determinant of habitat loss and fragmentation effects, averaged across species and geographic regions, was current maximum temperature, with mean precipitation change over the last 100 years of secondary importance. Habitat loss and fragmentation effects were greatest in areas with high maximum temperatures. Conversely, they were lowest in areas where average rainfall has increased over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a global terrestrial analysis of existing data to quantify and test for interacting effects between current climate, climatic change and habitat loss on biological populations. Understanding the synergistic effects between climate change and other threatening processes has critical implications for our ability to support and incorporate climate change adaptation measures into policy development and management response.

592 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluate the representation of phenology, and the associated seasonality of ecosystem-scale CO2 exchange, in 14 models participating in the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis.
Abstract: Phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis and other ecosystem processes, as well as competitive interactions and feedbacks to the climate system. We conducted an analysis to evaluate the representation of phenology, and the associated seasonality of ecosystem-scale CO2 exchange, in 14 models participating in the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis. Model predictions were evaluated using long-term measurements (emphasizing the period 2000–2006) from 10 forested sites within the AmeriFlux and Fluxnet-Canada networks. In deciduous forests, almost all models consistently predicted that the growing season started earlier, and ended later, than was actually observed; biases of 2 weeks or more were

578 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compare the present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits using large-scale forest inventory data and find no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics.
Abstract: Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges. Large-scale forest inventory data provide an opportunity to compare present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits. Using the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis data, we directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States. We further compared these latitudes with 20th century temperature and precipitation change and functional traits, including seed size and seed spread rate. Results suggest that 58.7% of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction, rather than expansion, at both northern and southern boundaries. Fewer species show a pattern consistent with a northward shift (20.7%) and fewer still with a southward shift (16.3%). Only 4.3% are consistent with expansion at both range limits. When compared with the 20th century climate changes that have occurred at the range boundaries themselves, there is no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics. The fact that the majority of seedling extreme latitudes are less than those for adult trees may emphasize the lack of evidence for climate-mediated migration, and should increase concerns for the risks posed by climate change.

567 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a meta-analysis to test the hypothesis that the global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice, wheat, and maize, when expressed per ton of grain (yield-scaled GWP), is similar, and that the lowest value for each cereal is achieved at near optimal yields.
Abstract: Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contribute approximately 12% to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Cereals (rice, wheat, and maize) are the largest source of human calories, and it is estimated that world cereal production must increase by 1.3% annually to 2025 to meet growing demand. Sustainable intensification of cereal production systems will require maintaining high yields while reducing environmental costs. We conducted a meta-analysis (57 published studies consisting of 62 study sites and 328 observations) to test the hypothesis that the global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice, wheat, and maize, when expressed per ton of grain (yield-scaled GWP), is similar, and that the lowest value for each cereal is achieved at near optimal yields. Results show that the GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice (3757 kg CO2 eq ha � 1 season � 1 ) was higher than wheat (662 kg CO2 eq ha � 1 season � 1 ) and maize (1399 kg CO2 eq ha � 1 season � 1 ). The yield-scaled GWP of rice was about four times higher (657 kg CO2 eq Mg � 1 ) than wheat (166 kg CO2 eq Mg � 1 ) and maize (185 kg CO2 eq Mg � 1 ). Across cereals, the lowest yield-scaled GWP values were achieved at 92% of maximal yield and were about twice as high for rice (279 kg CO2 eq Mg � 1 ) than wheat (102 kg CO2 eq Mg � 1 ) or maize (140 kg CO2 eq Mg � 1 ), suggesting greater mitigation opportunities for rice systems. In rice, wheat and maize, 0.68%, 1.21%, and 1.06% of N applied was emitted as N2O, respectively. In rice systems, there was no correlation between CH4 emissions and N rate. In addition, when evaluating issues related to food security and environmental sustainability, other factors including cultural significance, the provisioning of ecosystem services, and human health and well-being must also be considered.

498 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Human-induced carbon and nitrogen fertilization are generating a strong imbalance with P, affecting carbon sequestration potential and the structure, function and evolution of the Earth’s ecosystems.
Abstract: Human-induced carbon and nitrogen fertilization are generating a strong imbalance with P. This imbalance confers an increasingly important role to P availability and N : P ratio in the Earth’s life system, affecting carbon sequestration potential and the structure, function and evolution of the Earth’s ecosystems.

472 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper reviewed and synthesized published studies of the effects of biotic disturbances on forest C cycling in the United States and Canada and concluded that such disturbances can have major impacts on forest carbon stocks and fluxes and can be large enough to affect regional carbon cycle.
Abstract: Forest insects and pathogens are major disturbance agents that have affected millions of hectares in North America in recent decades, implying significant impacts to the carbon (C) cycle. Here, we review and synthesize published studies of the effects of biotic disturbances on forest C cycling in the United States and Canada. Primary productivity in stands was reduced, sometimes considerably, immediately following insect or pathogen attack. After repeated growth reductions caused by some insects or pathogens or a single infestation by some bark beetle species, tree mortality occurred, altering productivity and decomposition. In the years following disturbance, primary productivity in some cases increased rapidly as a result of enhanced growth by surviving vegetation, and in other cases increased slowly because of lower forest regrowth. In the decades following tree mortality, decomposition increased as a result of the large amount of dead organic matter. Net ecosystem productivity decreased immediately following attack, with some studies reporting a switch to a C source to the atmosphere, and increased afterward as the forest regrew and dead organic matter decomposed. Large variability in C cycle responses arose from several factors, including type of insect or pathogen, time since disturbance, number of trees affected, and capacity of remaining vegetation to increase growth rates following outbreak. We identified significant knowledge gaps, including limited understanding of carbon cycle impacts among different biotic disturbance types (particularly pathogens), their impacts at landscape and regional scales, and limited capacity to predict disturbance events and their consequences for carbon cycling. We conclude that biotic disturbances can have major impacts on forest C stocks and fluxes and can be large enough to affect regional C cycling. However, additional research is needed to reduce the uncertainties associated with quantifying biotic disturbance effects on the North American C budget.

465 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A demographic framework is proposed to understand this inertia to change based on the balance between adult mortality induced by the event and enhanced recruitment or adult survival after the event, crucial for the establishment of sound management strategies and actions addressed to improve ecosystem resilience under climate change scenarios.
Abstract: Current climatic trends involve both increasing temperatures and climatic variability, with extreme events becoming more frequent. Increasing concern on extreme climatic events has triggered research on vegetation shifts. However, evidences of vegetation shifts resulting from these events are still relatively rare. Empirical evidence supports the existence of stabilizing processes minimizing and counteracting the effects of these events, reinforcing community resilience. We propose a demographic framework to understand this inertia to change based on the balance between adult mortality induced by the event and enhanced recruitment or adult survival after the event. The stabilizing processes potentially contributing to this compensation include attenuation of the adult mortality caused by the event, due to site quality variability, to tolerance, phenotypic variability, and plasticity at population level, and to facilitative interactions. Mortality compensation may also occur by increasing future survival due to beneficial effect on growth and survival of the new conditions derived from global warming and increased climatic variability, to lowered competition resulting from reduced density in affected stands, or to antagonistic release when pathogens or predators are vulnerable to the event or the ongoing climatic conditions. Finally, mortality compensation may appear by enhanced recruitment due to release of competition with established vegetation, for instance as a consequence of gap openings after event-caused mortality, or to the new conditions, which may be more favorable for seedling establishment, or to enhanced mutualistic interactions (pollination, dispersal). There are important challenges imposed by the need of long-term studies, but a research agenda focused on potentially stabilizing processes is well suited to understand the variety of responses, including lack of sudden changes and community inertia that are frequently observed in vegetation under extreme events. This understanding is crucial for the establishment of sound management strategies and actions addressed to improve ecosystem resilience under climate change scenarios.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is suggested that sensitive marine organisms may have the capacity to acclimate or adapt to elevated Pco2 over the next century and a change in energy turnover indicated by SMR may be a key process involved.
Abstract: It is essential to predict the impact of elevated Pco2 on marine organisms and habitats to anticipate the severity and consequences of future ocean chemistry change. Despite the importance of carry-over effects in the evolutionary history of marine organisms, few studies have considered links between life-history stages when determining how marine organisms will respond to elevated Pco2, and none have considered the link between adults and their offspring. Herein, we exposed adults of wild and selectively bred Sydney rock oysters, Saccostrea glomerata to elevated Pco2 during reproductive conditioning and measured the development, growth and survival response of their larvae. We found that elevated Pco2 had a negative impact on larvae of S. glomerata causing a reduction in growth, rate of development and survival. Exposing adults to elevated Pco2 during reproductive conditioning, however, had positive carry-over effects on larvae. Larvae spawned from adults exposed to elevated Pco2 were larger and developed faster, but displayed similar survival compared with larvae spawned from adults exposed to ambient Pco2. Furthermore, selectively bred larvae of S. glomerata were more resilient to elevated Pco2 than wild larvae. Measurement of the standard metabolic rate (SMR) of adult S. glomerata showed that at ambient Pco2, SMR is increased in selectively bred compared with wild oysters and is further increased during exposure to elevated Pco2. This study suggests that sensitive marine organisms may have the capacity to acclimate or adapt to elevated Pco2 over the next century and a change in energy turnover indicated by SMR may be a key process involved.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined how warming and altered precipitation affected the rate and temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) at the Boston-area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA.
Abstract: Microbial decomposition of soil organic matter produces a major flux of CO2 from terrestrial ecosystems and can act as a feedback to climate change Although climate-carbon models suggest that warming will accelerate the release of CO2 from soils, the magnitude of this feedback is uncertain, mostly due to uncertainty in the temperature sensitivity of soil organic matter decomposition We examined how warming and altered precipitation affected the rate and temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) at the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA We measured Rh inside deep collars that excluded plant roots and litter inputs In this mesic ecosystem, Rh responded strongly to precipitation Drought reduced Rh, both annually and during the growing season Warming increased Rh only in early spring During the summer, when Rh was highest, we found evidence of threshold, hysteretic responses to soil moisture: Rh decreased sharply when volumetric soil moisture dropped below ~15% or exceeded ~26%, but Rh increased more gradually when soil moisture rose from the lower threshold The effect of climate treatments on the temperature sensitivity of Rh depended on the season Apparent Q10 decreased with high warming (~35 °C) in spring and fall Presumably due to limiting soil moisture, warming and precipitation treatments did not affect apparent Q10 in summer Drought decreased apparent Q10 in fall compared to ambient and wet precipitation treatments To our knowledge, this is the first field study to examine the response of Rh and its temperature sensitivity to the combined effects of warming and altered precipitation Our results highlight the complex responses of Rh to soil moisture, and to our knowledge identify for the first time the seasonal variation in the temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration in the field We emphasize the importance of adequately simulating responses such as these when modeling trajectories of soil carbon stocks under climate change scenarios

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that forest cover is inextricably linked to precipitation and that planting additional forests should raise downstream water availability and intensify the hydrologic cycle.
Abstract: Several major articles from the past decade and beyond conclude the impact of reforestation or afforestation on water yield is negative: additional forest cover will reduce and removing forests will raise downstream water availability. A second group of authors argue the opposite: planting additional forests should raise downstream water availability and intensify the hydrologic cycle. Obtaining supporting evidence for this second group of authors has been more difficult due to the larger scales at which the positive effects of forests on the water cycle may be seen. We argue that forest cover is inextricably linked to precipitation. Forest-driven evapotranspiration removed from a particular catchment contributes to the availability of atmospheric moisture vapor and its cross-continental transport, raising the likelihood of precipitation events and increasing water yield, in particular in continental interiors more distant from oceans. Seasonal relationships heighten the importance of this phenomenon. We review the arguments from different scales and perspectives. This clarifies the generally beneficial relationship between forest cover and the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. While evidence supports both sides of the argument – trees can reduce runoff at the small catchment scale – at larger scales, trees are more clearly linked to increased precipitation and water availability. Progressive deforestation, land conversion from forest to agriculture and urbanization have potentially negative consequences for global precipitation, prompting us to think of forest ecosystems as global public goods. Policy-making attempts to measure product water footprints, estimate the value of ecosystem services, promote afforestation, develop drought mitigation strategies and otherwise manage land use must consider the linkage of forests to the supply of precipitation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Insect and fungus feeding behaviour, affected tree part, and water stress severity are proposed as three important predictors of forest damage in drought conditions.
Abstract: In the context of climate change, the effects of prolonged or more severe droughts on pest and pathogen damage are a major concern for forest ecosystems. To date, there is great uncertainty about the direction, magnitude and sources of variation in responses to drought by insects and fungi. We report the outcomes of a meta-analysis of 100 pairwise comparisons of insect pest or pathogen damage to water-stressed and control trees from 40 publications. The type of feeding substrate for insects and fungi and the water stress severity emerged as the main factors influencing the level of damage in water-stressed trees. Overall, primary damaging agents living in wood caused significantly lower damage to the water-stressed trees compared with the control, whereas primary pests and pathogens living on foliage caused more damage to water-stressed trees, in all cases irrespective of stress severity. In contrast, damage by secondary agents increased with stress severity, which was best estimated by the ratio between the predawn leaf water potential in stressed trees and the xylem pressure inducing 50% loss in hydraulic conductance due to cavitation, a species-specific index of drought tolerance. Insect and fungus feeding behaviour, affected tree part, and water stress severity are therefore proposed as three important predictors of forest damage in drought conditions.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Increased effort is required in five areas: the combined effects of concurrent climate and non-climate stressors; responses of a broader range of species, particularly from tropical and polar regions as well as primary producers, pelagic invertebrates, and fish; species interactions and responses of species assemblages; and increasing realism in experiments through broad-scale observations and field experiments.
Abstract: The first decade of the new millennium saw a flurry of experiments to establish a mechanistic understanding of how climate change might transform the global biota, including marine organisms. However, the biophysical properties of the marine environment impose challenges to experiments, which can weaken their inference space. To facilitate strengthening the experimental evidence for possible ecological consequences of climate change, we reviewed the physical, biological and procedural scope of 110 marine climate change experiments published between 2000 and 2009. We found that 65% of these experiments only tested a single climate change factor (warming or acidification), 54% targeted temperate organisms, 58% were restricted to a single species and 73% to benthic invertebrates. In addition, 49% of the reviewed experiments had issues with the experimental design, principally related to replication of the main test-factors (temperature or pH), and only 11% included field assessments of processes or associated patterns. Guiding future research by this inventory of current strengths and weaknesses will expand the overall inference space of marine climate change experiments. Specifically, increased effort is required in five areas: (i) the combined effects of concurrent climate and non-climate stressors; (ii) responses of a broader range of species, particularly from tropical and polar regions as well as primary producers, pelagic invertebrates, and fish; (iii) species interactions and responses of species assemblages, (iv) reducing pseudo-replication in controlled experiments; and (v) increasing realism in experiments through broad-scale observations and field experiments. Attention in these areas will improve the generality and accuracy of our understanding of climate change as a driver of biological change in marine ecosystems.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors review responses to simulated N deposition from nine experimental sites across the UK in a diversity of heathland, grassland, bog and dune ecosystems which include studies with a high level of realism and where many are also the longest running globally on their ecosystem type.
Abstract: Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a global and increasing threat to biodiversity and ecosystem function. Much of our current understanding of N deposition impacts comes from field manipulation studies, although interpretation may need caution where simulations of N deposition (in terms of dose, application rate and N form) have limited realism. Here, we review responses to simulated N deposition from the UKREATE network, a group of nine experimental sites across the UK in a diversity of heathland, grassland, bog and dune ecosystems which include studies with a high level of realism and where many are also the longest running globally on their ecosystem type. Clear responses were seen across the sites with the greatest sensitivity shown in cover and species richness of bryophytes and lichens. Productivity was also increased at sites where N was the limiting nutrient, while flowering also showed high sensitivity, with increases and declines seen in dominant shrub and forb species, respectively. Critically, these parameters were responsive to some of the lowest additional loadings of N (7.7–10 kg ha−1 yr−1) showing potential for impacts by deposition rates seen in even remote and ‘unpolluted’ regions of Europe. Other parameters were less sensitive, but nevertheless showed response to higher doses. These included increases in soil %N and ‘plant available’ KCl extractable N,N cycling rates and acid–base status. Furthermore, an analysis of accumulated dose that quantified response against the total N input over time suggested that N impacts can ‘build up’ within an ecosystem such that even relatively low N deposition rates can result in ecological responses if continued for long enough. Given the responses have important implications for ecosystem structure, function, and recovery from N loading, the clear evidence for impacts at relatively low N deposition rates across a wide range of habitats is of considerable concern.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used trend changes in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite data between 1982 and 2008 to detect abrupt and gradual changes in vegetation greenness over time.
Abstract: Field observations and time series of vegetation greenness data from satellites provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades for several regions in the world. Changes in vegetation greenness over time may consist of an alternating sequence of greening and/or browning periods. This study examined this effect using detection of trend changes in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite data between 1982 and 2008. Time series of 648 fortnightly images were analyzed using a trend breaks analysis (BFAST) procedure. Both abrupt and gradual changes were detected in large parts of the world, especially in (semi-arid) shrubland and grassland biomes where abrupt greening was often followed by gradual browning. Many abrupt changes were found around large-scale natural influences like the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and the strong 1997/98 El Nino event. The net global figure – considered over the full length of the time series – showed greening since the 1980s. This is in line with previous studies, but the change rates for individual short-term segments were found to be up to five times higher. Temporal analysis indicated that the area with browning trends increased over time while the area with greening trends decreased. The Southern Hemisphere showed the strongest evidence of browning. Here, periods of gradual browning were generally longer than periods of gradual greening. Net greening was detected in all biomes, most conspicuously in croplands and least conspicuously in needleleaf forests. For 15% of the global land area, trends were found to change between greening and browning within the analysis period. This demonstrates the importance of accounting for trend changes when analyzing long-term NDVI time series.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Because single factor CO2 responses often dominated over warming responses in the combined treatments, the results suggest that projected responses to future global warming in Earth System models should not be parameterized using single factor warming experiments.
Abstract: In recent years, increased awareness of the potential interactions between rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([ CO2 ]) and temperature has illustrated the importance of multifactorial ecosystem manipulation experiments for validating Earth System models. To address the urgent need for increased understanding of responses in multifactorial experiments, this article synthesizes how ecosystem productivity and soil processes respond to combined warming and [ CO2 ] manipulation, and compares it with those obtained in single factor [ CO2 ] and temperature manipulation experiments. Across all combined elevated [ CO2 ] and warming experiments, biomass production and soil respiration were typically enhanced. Responses to the combined treatment were more similar to those in the [ CO2 ]-only treatment than to those in the warming-only treatment. In contrast to warming-only experiments, both the combined and the [ CO2 ]-only treatments elicited larger stimulation of fine root biomass than of aboveground biomass, consistently stimulated soil respiration, and decreased foliar nitrogen (N) concentration. Nonetheless, mineral N availability declined less in the combined treatment than in the [ CO2 ]-only treatment, possibly due to the warming-induced acceleration of decomposition, implying that progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) may not occur as commonly as anticipated from single factor [ CO2 ] treatment studies. Responses of total plant biomass, especially of aboveground biomass, revealed antagonistic interactions between elevated [ CO2 ] and warming, i.e. the response to the combined treatment was usually less-than-additive. This implies that productivity projections might be overestimated when models are parameterized based on single factor responses. Our results highlight the need for more (and especially more long-term) multifactor manipulation experiments. Because single factor CO2 responses often dominated over warming responses in the combined treatments, our results also suggest that projected responses to future global warming in Earth System models should not be parameterized using single factor warming experiments.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that over the past century, increasing temperature pushed species upslope while increased precipitation pulled them downslope, resulting in range shifts that were heterogeneous within species and among regions.
Abstract: Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence–absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts from artifacts of false absences. Over the past century, rising temperature pushed species upslope while increased precipitation pulled them downslope, resulting in range shifts that were heterogeneous within species and among regions. While 84% of species shifted their elevational distribution, only 51% of upper or lower range boundary shifts were upslope. By comparison, 82% of range shifts were in a direction predicted by changes in either temperature or precipitation. Species were significantly more likely to shift elevational ranges than their ecological counterparts if they had small clutch sizes, defended all-purpose territories, and were year-round residents, results that were in opposition to a priori predictions from dispersal-related hypotheses. Our results illustrate the complex interplay between species-specific and region-specific factors that structure patterns of breeding range change over long time periods. Future projections of increasing temperature and highly variable precipitation regimes create a strong potential for heterogeneous responses by species at range margins.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe a unifying modeling framework to combine the effects of temperature, soil water content, and soluble substrate supply on decomposition of soluble soil-C substrates using simple functions based on process concepts.
Abstract: Decomposition of soil carbon stocks is one of the largest potential biotic feedbacks to climate change. Models of decomposition of soil organic matter and of soil respiration rely on empirical functions that relate variation in temperature and soil water content to rates of microbial metabolism using soil-C substrates. Here, we describe a unifying modeling framework to combine the effects of temperature, soil water content, and soluble substrate supply on decomposition of soluble soil-C substrates using simple functions based on process concepts. The model's backbone is the Michaelis–Menten equation, which describes the relationship between reaction velocity and soluble organic-C and O2 substrate concentrations at an enzyme's reactive site, which are determined by diffusivity functions based on soil water content. Temperature sensitivity is simulated by allowing the maximum velocity of the reaction (Vmax) to vary according to Arrhenius function. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis–Menten kinetics (DAMM) model core was able to predict effectively observations from of laboratory enzyme assays of β-glucosidase and phenol-oxidase across a range of substrate concentrations and incubation temperatures. The model also functioned as well or better than purely empirical models for simulating hourly and seasonal soil respiration data from a trenched plot in a deciduous forest at the Harvard Forest, in northeastern United States. The DAMM model demonstrates that enzymatic processes can be intrinsically temperature sensitive, but environmental constrains of substrate supply under soil moisture extremes can prevent that response to temperature from being observed. We discuss how DAMM could serve as a core module that is informed by other modules regarding microbial dynamics and supply of soluble-C substrates from plant inputs and from desorption of physically stabilized soil-C pools. Most importantly, it presents a way forward from purely empirical representation of temperature and moisture responses and integrates temperature-sensitive enzymatic processes with constraints of substrate supply.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse changes in woody density in fire experiments at three sites in South African savannas where the disturbance regime (fire and herbivores) was kept constant for 30 and 50 years.
Abstract: For the past century, woody plants have increased in grasslands and savannas worldwide. Woody encroachment may significantly alter ecosystem functioning including fire regimes, herbivore carrying capacity, biodiversity and carbon storage capacity. Traditionally, increases in woody cover and density have been ascribed to changes in the disturbance regime (fire and herbivores) or rainfall. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations may also contribute, by increasing growth rates of trees relative to grasses. This hypothesis is still heavily debated because usually potential CO2 effects are confounded by changes in land use (disturbance regime). Here we analyse changes in woody density in fire experiments at three sites in South African savannas where the disturbance regime (fire and herbivores) was kept constant for 30 and 50 years. If global drivers had significant effects on woody plants, we would expect significant increases in tree densities and biomass over time under the constant disturbance regime. Woody density remained constant in a semiarid savanna but tripled in a mesic savanna between the 1970s and 1990s. At the third site, a semiarid savanna near the southern limits of the biome, tree density doubled from the mid 1990s to 2010. Interpretation of the causes is confounded by population recovery after clearing, but aerial photograph analysis on adjacent non-cleared areas showed an accompanying 48% increase in woody cover. Increased CO2 concentrations are consistent with increased woody density while other global drivers (rainfall) remained constant over the duration of the experiments. The absence of a response in one semiarid savanna could be explained by a smaller carbon sink capacity of the dominant species, which would therefore benefit less from increased CO2. Understanding how savannas and grasslands respond to increased CO2 and identifying the causes of woody encroachment are essential for the successful management of these systems.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is a local adaptation of microbial EHE kinetics to temperature and that this should be taken into account when making predictions about the responses of C cycling to global change.
Abstract: Decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is mediated by microbial extracellular hydrolytic enzymes (EHEs). Thus, given the large amount of carbon (C) stored as SOM, it is imperative to understand how microbial EHEs will respond to global change (and warming in particular) to better predict the links between SOM and the global C cycle. Here, we measured the Michaelis–Menten kinetics [maximal rate of velocity (Vmax) and half-saturation constant (Km)] of five hydrolytic enzymes involved in SOM degradation (cellobiohydrolase, b-glucosidase, b-xylosidase, a-glucosidase, and N-acetyl-b-D-glucosaminidase) in five sites spanning a boreal forest to a tropical rainforest. We tested the specific hypothesis that enzymes from higher latitudes would show greater temperature sensitivities than those from lower latitudes. We then used our data to parameterize a mathematical model to test the relative roles of Vmax and Km temperature sensitivities in SOM decomposition. We found that both Vmax and Km were temperature sensitive, with Q10 values ranging from 1.53 to 2.27 for Vmax and 0.90 to 1.57 for Km. The Q10 values for the Km of the cellulose-degrading enzyme b-glucosidase showed a significant (P = 0.004) negative relationship with mean annual temperature, indicating that enzymes from cooler climates can indeed be more sensitive to temperature. Our model showed that Km temperature sensitivity can offset SOM losses due to Vmax temperature sensitivity, but the offset depends on the size of the SOM pool and the magnitude of Vmax. Overall, our results suggest that there is a local adaptation of microbial EHE kinetics to temperature and that this should be taken into account when making predictions about the responses of C cycling to global change.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Evidence that documents how loss of sea ice negatively affects polar bears' long-term survival is summarized, with quantifiable negative effects being documented first in the more southerly subpopulations, such as those in Hudson Bay or the southern Beaufort Sea.
Abstract: Climate warming is causing unidirectional changes to annual patterns of sea ice distribution, structure, and freeze-up. We summarize evidence that documents how loss of sea ice, the primary habitat of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), negatively affects their long-term survival. To maintain viable subpopulations, polar bears depend on sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals for long enough each year to accumulate sufficient energy (fat) to survive periods when seals are unavailable. Less time to access to prey, because of progressively earlier breakup in spring, when newly weaned ringed seal (Pusa hispida) young are available, results in longer periods of fasting, lower body condition, decreased access to denning areas, fewer and smaller cubs, lower survival of cubs as well as bears of other age classes and, finally, subpopulation decline toward eventual extirpation. The chronology of climate-driven changes will vary between subpopulations, with quantifiable negative effects being documented first in the more southerly subpopulations, such as those in Hudson Bay or the southern Beaufort Sea. As the bears' body condition declines, more seek alternate food resources so the frequency of conflicts between bears and humans increases. In the most northerly areas, thick multiyear ice, through which little light penetrates to stimulate biological growth on the underside, will be replaced by annual ice, which facilitates greater productivity and may create habitat more favorable to polar bears over continental shelf areas in the short term. If the climate continues to warm and eliminate sea ice as predicted, polar bears will largely disappear from the southern portions of their range by mid-century. They may persist in the northern Canadian Arctic Islands and northern Greenland for the foreseeable future, but their long-term viability, with a much reduced global population size in a remnant of their former range, is uncertain.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the performance of 16 terrestrial biosphere models and 3 remote sensing products against long-term measurements of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 exchange made with eddy-covariance flux towers at 11 forested sites in North America was evaluated.
Abstract: Interannual variability in biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 is driven by a diverse range of biotic and abiotic factors. Replicating this variability thus represents the ‘acid test’ for terrestrial biosphere models. Although such models are commonly used to project responses to both normal and anomalous variability in climate, they are rarely tested explicitly against inter-annual variability in observations. Herein, using standardized data from the North American Carbon Program, we assess the performance of 16 terrestrial biosphere models and 3 remote sensing products against long-term measurements of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 exchange made with eddy-covariance flux towers at 11 forested sites in North America. Instead of focusing on model-data agreement we take a systematic, variability-oriented approach and show that although the models tend to reproduce the mean magnitude of the observed annual flux variability, they fail to reproduce the timing. Large biases in modeled annual means are evident for all models. Observed interannual variability is found to commonly be on the order of magnitude of the mean fluxes. None of the models consistently reproduce observed interannual variability within measurement uncertainty. Underrepresentation of variability in spring phenology, soil thaw and snowpack melting, and difficulties in reproducing the lagged response to extreme climatic events are identified as systematic errors, common to all models included in this study.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated a unique data set of 1460 soil profiles in southeast Germany in order to calculate representative soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to a depth of 1m for the main land use types.
Abstract: Precise estimations of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are of decided importance for the detection of C sequestration or emission potential induced by land use changes. For Germany, a comprehensive, land use–specific SOC data set has not yet been compiled. We evaluated a unique data set of 1460 soil profiles in southeast Germany in order to calculate representative SOC stocks to a depth of 1 m for the main land use types. The results showed that grassland soils stored the highest amount of SOC, with a median value of 11.8 kg m−2, whereas considerably lower stocks of 9.8 and 9.0 kg m−2 were found for forest and cropland soils, respectively. However, the differences between extensively used land (grassland, forest) and cropland were much lower compared with results from other studies in central European countries. The depth distribution of SOC showed that despite low SOC concentrations in A horizons of cropland soils, their stocks were not considerably lower compared with other land uses. This was due to a deepening of the topsoil compared with grassland soils. Higher grassland SOC stocks were caused by an accumulation of SOC in the B horizon which was attributable to a high proportion of C-rich Gleysols within grassland soils. This demonstrates the relevance of pedogenetic SOC inventories instead of solely land use–based approaches. Our study indicated that cultivation-induced SOC depletion was probably often overestimated since most studies use fixed depth increments. Moreover, the application of modelled parameters in SOC inventories is questioned because a calculation of SOC stocks using different pedotransfer functions revealed considerably biased results. We recommend SOC stocks be determined by horizon for the entire soil profile in order to estimate the impact of land use changes precisely and to evaluate C sequestration potentials more accurately.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a four-site replicated field experiment involving both acidifying and deacidifying treatments was conducted to test the hypothesis that DOC leaching was previously suppressed by high levels of soil acidity in peat and organo-mineral soils.
Abstract: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters have increased across much of Europe and North America, with implications for the terrestrial carbon balance, aquatic ecosystem functioning, water treatment costs and human health. Over the past decade, many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, from changing climate and land management to eutrophication and acid deposition. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a reliance on correlative analyses of time series data, and a lack of robust experimental testing of proposed mechanisms. In a 4 year, four-site replicated field experiment involving both acidifying and deacidifying treatments, we tested the hypothesis that DOC leaching was previously suppressed by high levels of soil acidity in peat and organo-mineral soils, and therefore that observed DOC increases a consequence of decreasing soil acidity. We observed a consistent, positive relationship between DOC and acidity change at all sites. Responses were described by similar hyperbolic relationships between standardized changes in DOC and hydrogen ion concentrations at all sites, suggesting potentially general applicability. These relationships explained a substantial proportion of observed changes in peak DOC concentrations in nearby monitoring streams, and application to a UK-wide upland soil pH dataset suggests that recovery from acidification alone could have led to soil solution DOC increases in the range 46–126% by habitat type since 1978. Our findings raise the possibility that changing soil acidity may have wider impacts on ecosystem carbon balances. Decreasing sulphur deposition may be accelerating terrestrial carbon loss, and returning surface waters to a natural, high-DOC condition.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Many of the world's northern peatlands are underlain by rapidly thawing permafrost. Because plant production in these peatland is often nitrogen (N)-limited, a release of N stored in permaferost ma...
Abstract: Many of the world's northern peatlands are underlain by rapidly thawing permafrost. Because plant production in these peatlands is often nitrogen (N)-limited, a release of N stored in permafrost ma ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the climate distributions for fossil-pollen data from 21 to 15 ka BP (relying on paleoclimate simulations) when communities and climates with no modern analog were common across North America to observed modern pollen assemblages.
Abstract: Empirically derived species distributions models (SDMs) are increasingly relied upon to forecast species vulnerabilities to future climate change. However, many of the assumptions of SDMs may be violated when they are used to project species distributions across significant climate change events. In particular, SDM's in theory assume stable fundamental niches, but in practice, they assume stable realized niches. The assumption of a fixed realized niche relative to climate variables remains unlikely for various reasons, particularly if novel future climates open up currently unavailable portions of species' fundamental niches. To demonstrate this effect, we compare the climate distributions for fossil-pollen data from 21 to 15 ka BP (relying on paleoclimate simulations) when communities and climates with no modern analog were common across North America to observed modern pollen assemblages. We test how well SDMs are able to project 20th century pollen-based taxon distributions with models calibrated using data from 21 to 15 ka. We find that taxa which were abundant in areas with no-analog late glacial climates, such as Fraxinus, Ostrya/ Carpinus and Ulmus, substantially shifted their realized niches from the late glacial period to present. SDMs for these taxa had low predictive accuracy when projected to modern climates despite demonstrating high predictive accuracy for late glacial pollen distributions. For other taxa, e.g. Quercus, Picea, Pinus strobus, had relatively stable realized niches and models for these taxa tended to have higher predictive accuracy when projected to present. Our findings reinforce the point that a realized niche at any one time often represents only a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist. Projections from SDMs into future climate conditions that are based solely on contemporary realized distributions are potentially misleading for assessing the vulnerability of species to future climate change.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of tree wood density, size, and wood density on tree mortality after one to five fires were investigated in southern Amazonia, and the relationship between mortality and fire intensity was strongest in the year following the fires, but continued for 3 years afterwards.
Abstract: Large-scale wildfires are expected to accelerate forest dieback in Amazonia, but the fire vulnerability of tree species remains uncertain, in part due to the lack of studies relating fire-induced mortality to both fire behavior and plant traits. To address this gap, we established two sets of experiments in southern Amazonia. First, we tested which bark traits best predict heat transfer rates (R) through bark during experimental bole heating. Second, using data from a large-scale fire experiment, we tested the effects of tree wood density (WD), size, and estimated R (inverse of cam- bium insulation) on tree mortality after one to five fires. In the first experiment, bark thickness explained 82% of the variance in R, while the presence of water in the bark reduced the difference in temperature between the heat source and the vascular cambium, perhaps because of high latent heat of vaporization. This novel finding provides an important insight for improving mechanistic models of fire-induced cambium damage from tropical to temperate regions. In the second experiment, tree mortality increased with increasing fire intensity (i.e. as indicated by bark char height on tree boles), which was higher along the forest edge, during the 2007 drought, and when the fire return inter- val was 3 years instead of one. Contrary to other tropical studies, the relationship between mortality and fire intensity was strongest in the year following the fires, but continued for 3 years afterwards. Tree mortality was low ( � 20%) for thick-barked individuals ( � 18 mm) subjected to medium-intensity fires, and significantly decreased as a function of increasing tree diameter, height and wood density. Hence, fire-induced tree mortality was influenced not only by cambium insulation but also by other traits that reduce the indirect effects of fire. These results can be used to improve assessments of fire vulnerability of tropical forests.