Showing papers in "Global Change Biology in 2013"

The Microbial Efficiency-Matrix Stabilization (MEMS) framework integrates plant litter decomposition with soil organic matter stabilization: do labile plant inputs form stable soil organic matter?

Abstract: The decomposition and transformation of above- and below-ground plant detritus (litter) is the main process by which soil organic matter (SOM) is formed. Yet, research on litter decay and SOM formation has been largely uncoupled, failing to provide an effective nexus between these two fundamental processes for carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling and storage. We present the current understanding of the importance of microbial substrate use efficiency and C and N allocation in controlling the proportion of plant-derived C and N that is incorporated into SOM, and of soil matrix interactions in controlling SOM stabilization. We synthesize this understanding into the Microbial Efficiency-Matrix Stabilization (MEMS) framework. This framework leads to the hypothesis that labile plant constituents are the dominant source of microbial products, relative to input rates, because they are utilized more efficiently by microbes. These microbial products of decomposition would thus become the main precursors of stable SOM by promoting aggregation and through strong chemical bonding to the mineral soil matrix.

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming

Abstract: Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait-based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi-species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single-species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature.

Methane emissions from wetlands: biogeochemical, microbial, and modeling perspectives from local to global scales

Abstract: Understanding the dynamics of methane (CH4) emissions is of paramount importance because CH4 has 25 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) and is currently the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Wetlands are the single largest natural CH4 source with median emissions from published studies of 164 Tg yr 1 , which is about a third of total global emissions. We provide a perspective on important new frontiers in obtaining a better understanding of CH4 dynamics in natural systems, with a focus on wetlands. One of the most exciting recent developments in this field is the attempt to integrate the different methodologies and spatial scales of biogeochemistry, molecular microbiology, and modeling, and thus this is a major focus of this review. Our specific objectives are to provide an up-to-date synthesis of estimates of global CH4 emissions from wetlands and other freshwater aquatic ecosystems, briefly summarize major biogeophysical controls over CH4 emissions from wetlands, suggest new frontiers in CH4 biogeochemistry, examine relationships between methanogen community structure and CH4 dynamics in situ, and to review the current generation of CH4 models. We highlight throughout some of the most pressing issues concerning global change and feedbacks on CH4 emissions from natural ecosystems. Major uncertainties in estimating current and future CH4 emissions from natural ecosystems include the following: (i) A number of important controls over CH4 production, consumption, and transport have not been, or are inadequately, incorporated into existing CH4 biogeochemistry models. (ii) Significant errors in regional and global emission estimates are derived from large spatial-scale extrapolations from highly heterogeneous and often poorly mapped wetland complexes. (iii) The limited number of observations of CH4 fluxes and their associated environmental variables loosely constrains the parameterization of process-based biogeochemistry models.

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change – evidence from tree populations

Abstract: Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae

Abstract: Although seagrasses and marine macroalgae (macro-autotrophs) play critical ecological roles in reef, lagoon, coastal and open-water ecosystems, their response to ocean acidification (OA) and climate change is not well understood. In this review, we examine marine macro-autotroph biochemistry and physiology relevant to their response to elevated dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC], carbon dioxide [CO2 ], and lower carbonate [CO3 (2-) ] and pH. We also explore the effects of increasing temperature under climate change and the interactions of elevated temperature and [CO2 ]. Finally, recommendations are made for future research based on this synthesis. A literature review of >100 species revealed that marine macro-autotroph photosynthesis is overwhelmingly C3 (≥ 85%) with most species capable of utilizing HCO3 (-) ; however, most are not saturated at current ocean [DIC]. These results, and the presence of CO2 -only users, lead us to conclude that photosynthetic and growth rates of marine macro-autotrophs are likely to increase under elevated [CO2 ] similar to terrestrial C3 species. In the tropics, many species live close to their thermal limits and will have to up-regulate stress-response systems to tolerate sublethal temperature exposures with climate change, whereas elevated [CO2 ] effects on thermal acclimation are unknown. Fundamental linkages between elevated [CO2 ] and temperature on photorespiration, enzyme systems, carbohydrate production, and calcification dictate the need to consider these two parameters simultaneously. Relevant to calcifiers, elevated [CO2 ] lowers net calcification and this effect is amplified by high temperature. Although the mechanisms are not clear, OA likely disrupts diffusion and transport systems of H(+) and DIC. These fluxes control micro-environments that promote calcification over dissolution and may be more important than CaCO3 mineralogy in predicting macroalgal responses to OA. Calcareous macroalgae are highly vulnerable to OA, and it is likely that fleshy macroalgae will dominate in a higher CO2 ocean; therefore, it is critical to elucidate the research gaps identified in this review.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends.

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 � 15 Pg C yr � 1 ) than JU11 (118 � 6P g Cy r � 1 ). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled

The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Abstract: With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's third pole') has increased by 0.2 degrees C per decade over the past 50years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and increased CH4 consumption of meadows, but might increase CH4 emissions from lakes. Warming-induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles.

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980–2009)

Abstract: Non-native, invasive grasses have been linked to altered grass-fire cycles worldwide. Although a few studies have quantified resulting changes in fire activity at local scales, and many have speculated about larger scales, regional alterations to fire regimes remain poorly documented. We assessed the influence of large-scale Bromus tectorum (hereafter cheatgrass) invasion on fire size, duration, spread rate, and interannual variability in comparison to other prominent land cover classes across the Great Basin, USA. We compared regional land cover maps to burned area measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2000–2009 and to fire extents recorded by the USGS registry of fires from 1980 to 2009. Cheatgrass dominates at least 6% of the central Great Basin (650 000 km 2 ). MODIS records show that 13% of these cheatgrass-dominated lands burned, resulting in a fire return interval of 78 years for any given location within cheatgrass. This proportion was more than double the amount burned across all other vegetation types (range: 0.5–6% burned). During the 1990s, this difference was even more extreme, with cheatgrass burning nearly four times more frequently than any native vegetation type (16% of cheatgrass burned compared to 1–5% of native vegetation). Cheatgrass was also disproportionately represented in the largest fires, comprising 24% of the land area of the 50 largest fires recorded by MODIS during the 2000s. Furthermore, multi-date fires that burned across multiple vegetation types were significantly more likely to have started in cheatgrass. Finally, cheatgrass fires showed a strong interannual response to wet years, a trend only weakly observed in native vegetation types. These results demonstrate that cheatgrass invasion has substantially altered the regional fire regime. Although this result has been suspected by managers for decades, this study is the first to document recent cheatgrass-driven fire regimes at a regional scale.

Effects of grazing on grassland soil carbon: a global review

Abstract: Soils of grasslands represent a large potential reservoir for storing CO2, but this potential likely depends on how grasslands are managed for large mammal grazing. Previous studies found both strong positive and negative grazing effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) but explanations for this variation are poorly developed. Expanding on previous reviews, we performed a multifactorial meta-analysis of grazer effects on SOC density on 47 independent experimental contrasts from 17 studies. We explicitly tested hypotheses that grazer effects would shift from negative to positive with decreasing precipitation, increasing fineness of soil texture, transition from dominant grass species with C3 to C4 photosynthesis, and decreasing grazing intensity, after controlling for study duration and sampling depth. The six variables of soil texture, precipitation, grass type, grazing intensity, study duration, and sampling depth explained 85% of a large variation (±150 g m−2 yr−1) in grazing effects, and the best model included significant interactions between precipitation and soil texture (P = 0.002), grass type, and grazing intensity (P = 0.012), and study duration and soil sampling depth (P = 0.020). Specifically, an increase in mean annual precipitation of 600 mm resulted in a 24% decrease in grazer effect size on finer textured soils, while on sandy soils the same increase in precipitation produced a 22% increase in grazer effect on SOC. Increasing grazing intensity increased SOC by 6–7% on C4-dominated and C4–C3 mixed grasslands, but decreased SOC by an average 18% in C3-dominated grasslands. We discovered these patterns despite a lack of studies in natural, wildlife-dominated ecosystems, and tropical grasslands. Our results, which suggest a future focus on why C3 vs. C4-dominated grasslands differ so strongly in their response of SOC to grazing, show that grazer effects on SOC are highly context-specific and imply that grazers in different regions might be managed differently to help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

How much land based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals

Abstract: Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

Will climate change promote future invasions

Abstract: Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we show that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. We also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity.

Microclimatic challenges in global change biology

Abstract: Despite decades of work on climate change biology, the scientific community remains uncertain about where and when most species distributions will respond to altered climates. A major barrier is the spatial mismatch between the size of organisms and the scale at which climate data are collected and modeled. Using a meta-analysis of published literature, we show that grid lengths in species distribution models are, on average, ca. 10 000-fold larger than the animals they study, and ca. 1000-fold larger than the plants they study. And the gap is even worse than these ratios indicate, as most work has focused on organisms that are significantly biased toward large size. This mismatch is problematic because organisms do not experience climate on coarse scales. Rather, they live in microclimates, which can be highly heterogeneous and strongly divergent from surrounding macroclimates. Bridging the spatial gap should be a high priority for research and will require gathering climate data at finer scales, developing better methods for downscaling environmental data to microclimates, and improving our statistical understanding of variation at finer scales. Interdisciplinary collaborations (including ecologists, engineers, climatologists, meteorologists, statisticians, and geographers) will be key to bridging the gap, and ultimately to providing scientifically grounded data and recommendations to conservation biologists and policy makers.

A plant's perspective of extremes: terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability.

Abstract: We review observational, experimental, and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied, although potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational, and/or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches.

Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change.

Abstract: Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate ‘realized’ thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the ‘fundamental’ norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing ‘thermal safety margins’. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.

Food availability outweighs ocean acidification effects in juvenileMytilus edulis: laboratory and field experiments

Abstract: Ocean acidification is expected to decrease calcification rates of bivalves. Nevertheless in many coastal areas high pCO2 variability is encountered already today. Kiel Fjord (Western Baltic Sea) is a brackish (12-20 g kg-1) and CO2 enriched habitat, but the blue mussel Mytilus edulis dominates the benthic community. In a coupled field and laboratory study we examined the annual pCO2 variability in this habitat and the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and food availability on juvenile M. edulis growth and calcification. In the laboratory experiment, mussel growth and calcification were found to chiefly depend on food supply, with only minor impacts of pCO2 up to 3350 μatm. Kiel Fjord was characterized by strong seasonal pCO2 variability. During summer, maximal pCO2 values of 2500 μatm were observed at the surface and >3000 μatm at the bottom. However, the field growth experiment revealed seven times higher growth and calcification rates of M. edulis at a high pCO2 inner fjord field station (mean pCO2 ca. 1000 μatm) in comparison to a low pCO2 outer fjord station (ca. 600 μatm). In addition, mussels were able to outcompete the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus at the high pCO2 site. High mussel productivity at the inner fjord site was enabled by higher particulate organic carbon concentrations. Kiel Fjord is highly impacted by eutrophication, which causes bottom water hypoxia and consequently high seawater pCO2. At the same time, elevated nutrient concentrations increase the energy availability for filter feeding organisms such as mussels. Thus M. edulis can dominate over a seemingly more acidification resistant species such as A. improvisus. We conclude that benthic stages of M. edulis tolerate high ambient pCO2 when food supply is abundant and that important habitat characteristics such as species interactions and energy availability need to be considered to predict species vulnerability to ocean acidification.

Plant respiration and photosynthesis in global‐scale models: incorporating acclimation to temperature and CO2

Abstract: To realistically simulate climate feedbacks from the land surface to the atmosphere, models must replicate the responses of plants to environmental changes. Several processes, operating at various scales, cause the responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration to temperature and CO2 to change over time of exposure to new or changing environmental conditions. Here, we review the latest empirical evidence that short-term responses of plant carbon exchange rates to temperature and CO2 are modified by plant photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation as well as biogeochemical feedbacks. We assess the frequency with which these responses have been incorporated into vegetation models, and highlight recently designed algorithms that can facilitate their incorporation. Few models currently include representations of the long-term plant responses that have been recorded by empirical studies, likely because these responses are still poorly understood at scales relevant for models. Studies show that, at a regional scale, simulated carbon flux between the atmosphere and vegetation can dramatically differ between versions of models that do and do not include acclimation. However, the realism of these results is difficult to evaluate, as algorithm development is still in an early stage, and a limited number of data are available. We provide a series of recommendations that suggest how a combination of empirical and modeling studies can produce mechanistic algorithms that will realistically simulate longer term responses within global-scale models.

Climate, duration, and N placement determine N2O emissions in reduced tillage systems: a meta‐analysis

Abstract: No-tillage and reduced tillage (NT/RT) management practices are being promoted in agroecosystems to reduce erosion, sequester additional soil C and reduce production costs. The impact of NT/RT on N2O emissions, however, has been variable with both increases and decreases in emissions reported. Herein, we quantitatively synthesize studies on the short- and long-term impact of NT/RT on N2O emissions in humid and dry climatic zones with emissions expressed on both an area- and crop yield-scaled basis. A meta-analysis was conducted on 239 direct comparisons between conventional tillage (CT) and NT/RT. In contrast to earlier studies, averaged across all comparisons, NT/RT did not alter N2O emissions compared with CT. However, NT/RT significantly reduced N2O emissions in experiments >10 years, especially in dry climates. No significant correlation was found between soil texture and the effect of NT/RT on N2O emissions. When fertilizer-N was placed at � 5 cm depth, NT/RT significantly reduced areascaled N2O emissions, in particular under humid climatic conditions. Compared to CT under dry climatic conditions, yield-scaled N2O increased significantly (57%) when NT/RT was implemented <10 years, but decreased significantly (27%) after � 10 years of NT/RT. There was a significant decrease in yield-scaled N2O emissions in humid climates when fertilizer-N was placed at � 5 cm depth. Therefore, in humid climates, deep placement of fertilizer-N is recommended when implementing NT/RT. In addition, NT/RT practices need to be sustained for a prolonged time, particularly in dry climates, to become an effective mitigation strategy for reducing N2O emissions.

Soil nitrous oxide emissions following crop residue addition: a meta‐analysis

Abstract: Annual production of crop residues has reached nearly 4 billion metric tons globally. Retention of this large amount of residues on agricultural land can be beneficial to soil C sequestration. Such potential impacts, however, may be offset if residue retention substantially increases soil emissions of N(2)O, a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depletion substance. Residue effects on soil N(2)O emissions have gained considerable attention since early 1990s; yet, it is still a great challenge to predict the magnitude and direction of soil N(2)O emissions following residue amendment. Here, we used a meta-analysis to assess residue impacts on soil N(2)O emissions in relation to soil and residue attributes, i.e., soil pH, soil texture, soil water content, residue C and N input, and residue C : N ratio. Residue effects were negatively associated with C : N ratios, but generally residue amendment could not reduce soil N(2)O emissions, even for C : N ratios well above ca. 30, the threshold for net N immobilization. Residue effects were also comparable to, if not greater than, those of synthetic N fertilizers. In addition, residue effects on soil N(2)O emissions were positively related to the amounts of residue C input as well as residue effects on soil CO(2) respiration. Furthermore, most significant and stimulatory effects occurred at 60-90% soil water-filled pore space and soil pH 7.1-7.8. Stimulatory effects were also present for all soil textures except sand or clay content ≤10%. However, inhibitory effects were found for soils with >90% water-filled pore space. Altogether, our meta-analysis suggests that crop residues played roles beyond N supply for N(2)O production. Perhaps, by stimulating microbial respiration, crop residues enhanced oxygen depletion and therefore promoted anaerobic conditions for denitrification and N(2)O production. Our meta-analysis highlights the necessity to connect the quantity and quality of crop residues with soil properties for predicting soil N(2)O emissions.

Drought's legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die-off and portends increased future risk

Abstract: Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Recent drought-induced, widespread forest die-offs highlight that climate change could accelerate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and precludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die-off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die-off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumulated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavitation, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deterioration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vulnerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate–vegetation models. Finally, our findings highlight the critical role of drought stress accumulation and repair of stressinduced damage for avoiding plant mortality, presenting a dynamic and contingent framework for drought impacts on forest ecosystems.

Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere

Abstract: We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life.

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia

Abstract: Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests.

Forest water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO2: a model‐data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate forest FACE sites

Abstract: Predicted responses of transpiration to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) are highly variable amongst process-based models. To better understand and constrain this variability amongst models, we conducted an intercomparison of 11 ecosystem models applied to data from two forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments at Duke University and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We analysed model structures to identify the key underlying assumptions causing differences in model predictions of transpiration and canopy water use efficiency. We then compared the models against data to identify model assumptions that are incorrect or are large sources of uncertainty. We found that model-to-model and model-to-observations differences resulted from four key sets of assumptions, namely (i) the nature of the stomatal response to elevated CO2 (coupling between photosynthesis and stomata was supported by the data); (ii) the roles of the leaf and atmospheric boundary layer (models which assumed multiple conductance terms in series predicted more decoupled fluxes than observed at the broadleaf site); (iii) the treatment of canopy interception (large intermodel variability, 2–15%); and (iv) the impact of soil moisture stress (process uncertainty in how models limit carbon and water fluxes during moisture stress). Overall, model predictions of the CO2 effect on WUE were reasonable (intermodel l = approximately 28% � 10%) compared to the observations (l = approximately 30% � 13%) at the well-coupled coniferous site (Duke), but poor (intermodel l = approximately 24% � 6%; observations l = approximately 38% � 7%) at the broadleaf site (Oak Ridge). The study yields a framework for analysing and interpreting model predictions of transpiration responses to eCO2, and highlights key improvements to these types of models.

Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones

Abstract: Methane (CH4) emissions from the northern high-latitude region represent potentially significant biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. We compiled a database of growing-season CH4 emissions from terrestrial ecosystems located across permafrost zones, including 303 sites described in 65 studies. Data on environmental and physical variables, including permafrost conditions, were used to assess controls on CH4 emissions. Water table position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition strongly influenced emissions and had interacting effects. Sites with a dense sedge cover had higher emissions than other sites at comparable water table positions, and this was an effect that was more pronounced at low soil temperatures. Sensitivity analysis suggested that CH4 emissions from ecosystems where the water table on average is at or above the soil surface (wet tundra, fen underlain by permafrost, and littoral ecosystems) are more sensitive to variability in soil temperature than drier ecosystems (palsa dry tundra, bog, and fen), whereas the latter ecosystems conversely are relatively more sensitive to changes of the water table position. Sites with near-surface permafrost had lower CH4 fluxes than sites without permafrost at comparable water table positions, a difference that was explained by lower soil temperatures. Neither the active layer depth nor the organic soil layer depth was related to CH4 emissions. Permafrost thaw in lowland regions is often associated with increased soil moisture, higher soil temperatures, and increased sedge cover. In our database, lowland thermokarst sites generally had higher emissions than adjacent sites with intact permafrost, but emissions from thermokarst sites were not statistically higher than emissions from permafrost-free sites with comparable environmental conditions. Overall, these results suggest that future changes to terrestrial high-latitude CH4 emissions will be more proximately related to changes in moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation composition than to increased availability of organic matter following permafrost thaw.

Driving factors of a vegetation shift from Scots pine to pubescent oak in dry Alpine forests

Abstract: An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services.

Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model

Abstract: Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

Abstract: Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine-scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate-change impacts than coarse-scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse-scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000-fold range of spatial scales (0.008–16 km 2 ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate-data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine- and coarse-scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species’ range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net habitat area when predictive maps form the basis of conservation decision making.

Large-scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011.

Abstract: We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950-2011 to study the long-term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO(2) concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long-term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO(2) annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO(2) uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO(2) to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

Abstract: We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century.

Abstract: Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate-driven species range shifts during the 20th century.

Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta‐analysis

Abstract: To date, meta-analyses of effects of acidification have focused on the overall strength of evidence for statistically significant responses; however, to anticipate likely consequences of ocean acidification, quantitative estimates of the magnitude of likely responses are also needed Herein, we use random effects meta-analysis to produce a systematically integrated measure of the distribution of magnitudes of the response of coral calcification to decreasing ΩArag We also tested whether methodological and biological factors that have been hypothesized to drive variation in response magnitude explain a significant proportion of the among-study variation We found that the overall mean response of coral calcification is ~15% per unit decrease in ΩArag over the range 2 < ΩArag < 4 Among-study variation is large (standard deviation of 8% per unit decrease in ΩArag) Neither differences in carbonate chemistry manipulation method, study duration, irradiance level, nor study species growth rate explained a significant proportion of the among-study variation However, studies employing buoyant weighting found significantly smaller decreases in calcification per unit ΩArag (~10%), compared with studies using the alkalinity anomaly technique (~25%) These differences may be due to the greater tendency for the former to integrate over light and dark calcification If the existing body of experimental work is indeed representative of likely responses of corals in nature, our results imply that, under business as usual conditions, declines in coral calcification by end-of-century will be ~22%, on average, or ~15% if only studies integrating light and dark calcification are considered These values are near the low end of published projections, but support the emerging view that variability due to local environmental conditions and species composition is likely to be substantial