Showing papers in "Global Change Biology in 2021"

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Abstract: Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.

Getting the message right on nature-based solutions to climate change

Abstract: Nature-based solutions (NbS)-solutions to societal challenges that involve working with nature-have recently gained popularity as an integrated approach that can address climate change and biodiversity loss, while supporting sustainable development Although well-designed NbS can deliver multiple benefits for people and nature, much of the recent limelight has been on tree planting for carbon sequestration There are serious concerns that this is distracting from the need to rapidly phase out use of fossil fuels and protect existing intact ecosystems There are also concerns that the expansion of forestry framed as a climate change mitigation solution is coming at the cost of carbon rich and biodiverse native ecosystems and local resource rights Here, we discuss the promise and pitfalls of the NbS framing and its current political traction, and we present recommendations on how to get the message right We urge policymakers, practitioners and researchers to consider the synergies and trade-offs associated with NbS and to follow four guiding principles to enable NbS to provide sustainable benefits to society: (1) NbS are not a substitute for the rapid phase out of fossil fuels; (2) NbS involve a wide range of ecosystems on land and in the sea, not just forests; (3) NbS are implemented with the full engagement and consent of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in a way that respects their cultural and ecological rights; and (4) NbS should be explicitly designed to provide measurable benefits for biodiversity Only by following these guidelines will we design robust and resilient NbS that address the urgent challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss, sustaining nature and people together, now and into the future

Ten golden rules for reforestation to optimize carbon sequestration, biodiversity recovery and livelihood benefits

Abstract: Urgent solutions to global climate change are needed. Ambitious tree-planting initiatives, many already underway, aim to sequester enormous quantities of carbon to partly compensate for anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which are a major cause of rising global temperatures. However, tree planting that is poorly planned and executed could actually increase CO2 emissions and have long-term, deleterious impacts on biodiversity, landscapes and livelihoods. Here, we highlight the main environmental risks of large-scale tree planting and propose 10 golden rules, based on some of the most recent ecological research, to implement forest ecosystem restoration that maximizes rates of both carbon sequestration and biodiversity recovery while improving livelihoods. These are as follows: (1) Protect existing forest first; (2) Work together (involving all stakeholders); (3) Aim to maximize biodiversity recovery to meet multiple goals; (4) Select appropriate areas for restoration; (5) Use natural regeneration wherever possible; (6) Select species to maximize biodiversity; (7) Use resilient plant material (with appropriate genetic variability and provenance); (8) Plan ahead for infrastructure, capacity and seed supply; (9) Learn by doing (using an adaptive management approach); and (10) Make it pay (ensuring the economic sustainability of the project). We focus on the design of long-term strategies to tackle the climate and biodiversity crises and support livelihood needs. We emphasize the role of local communities as sources of indigenous knowledge, and the benefits they could derive from successful reforestation that restores ecosystem functioning and delivers a diverse range of forest products and services. While there is no simple and universal recipe for forest restoration, it is crucial to build upon the currently growing public and private interest in this topic, to ensure interventions provide effective, long-term carbon sinks and maximize benefits for biodiversity and people.

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda.

Abstract: Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

Record-setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States.

Abstract: The 2020 fire season in the western United States (the West) has been staggering: over 2.5 million ha have burned as of 31 September, including over 1.5 million ha in California (3.7% of the state), in part from five of the six largest fires in state history; over 760,000 ha have burned in Oregon and Washington, most occurring within a few-day period (www.nifc.gov; Fig. 1a).

30 years of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE): What have we learned about future crop productivity and its potential for adaptation?

Abstract: Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) allows open-air elevation of [CO2] without altering the microclimate. Its scale uniquely supports simultaneous study from physiology and yield to soil processes and disease. In 2005 we summarized results of then 28 published observations by meta-analysis. Subsequent studies have combined FACE with temperature, drought, ozone, and nitrogen treatments. Here, we summarize the results of now almost 250 observations, spanning 14 sites and five continents. Across 186 independent studies of 18 C3 crops, elevation of [CO2] by ca. 200 ppm caused a ca. 18% increase in yield under non-stress conditions. Legumes and root crops showed a greater increase and cereals less. Nitrogen deficiency reduced the average increase to 10%, as did warming by ca. 2°C. Two conclusions of the 2005 analysis were that C4 crops would not be more productive in elevated [CO2], except under drought, and that yield responses of C3 crops were diminished by nitrogen deficiency and wet conditions. Both stand the test of time. Further studies of maize and sorghum showed no yield increase, except in drought, while soybean productivity was negatively affected by early growing season wet conditions. Subsequent study showed reduced levels of nutrients, notably Zn and Fe in most crops, and lower nitrogen and protein in the seeds of non-leguminous crops. Testing across crop germplasm revealed sufficient variation to maintain nutrient content under rising [CO2]. A strong correlation of yield response under elevated [CO2] to genetic yield potential in both rice and soybean was observed. Rice cultivars with the highest yield potential showed a 35% yield increase in elevated [CO2] compared to an average of 14%. Future FACE experiments have the potential to develop cultivars and management strategies for co-promoting sustainability and productivity under future elevated [CO2].

Can N2O emissions offset the benefits from soil organic carbon storage

Abstract: To respect the Paris agreement targeting a limitation of global warming below 2°C by 2100, and possibly below 1.5°C, drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are mandatory but not sufficient. Large-scale deployment of other climate mitigation strategies is also necessary. Among these, increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is an important lever because carbon in soils can be stored for long periods and land management options to achieve this already exist and have been widely tested. However, agricultural soils are also an important source of nitrous oxide (N2 O), a powerful greenhouse gas, and increasing SOC may influence N2 O emissions, likely causing an increase in many cases, thus tending to offset the climate change benefit from increased SOC storage. Here we review the main agricultural management options for increasing SOC stocks. We evaluate the amount of SOC that can be stored as well as resulting changes in N2 O emissions to better estimate the climate benefits of these management options. Based on quantitative data obtained from published meta-analyses and from our current level of understanding, we conclude that the climate mitigation induced by increased SOC storage is generally overestimated if associated N2 O emissions are not considered but, with the exception of reduced tillage, is never fully offset. Some options (e.g. biochar or non-pyrogenic C amendment application) may even decrease N2 O emissions.

Long-term declines and recovery of meadow area across the world's seagrass bioregions.

Abstract: As human impacts increase in coastal regions, there is concern that critical habitats that provide the foundation of entire ecosystems are in decline. Seagrass meadows face growing threats such as poor water quality and coastal development. To determine the status of seagrass meadows over time, we reconstructed time series of meadow area from 175 studies that surveyed 547 sites around the world. We found an overall trajectory of decline in all seven bioregions with a global net loss of 5602 km2 (19.1% of surveyed meadow area) occurring since 1880. Declines have typically been non-linear, with rapid and historical losses observed in several bioregions. The greatest net losses of area occurred in four bioregions (Tropical Atlantic, Temperate North Atlantic East, Temperate Southern Oceans and Tropical Indo-Pacific), with declining trends being the slowest and most consistent in the latter two bioregions. In some bioregions, trends have recently stabilised or reversed. Losses, however, still outweigh gains. Despite consistent global declines, meadows show high variability in trajectories, within and across bioregions, highlighting the importance of local context. Studies identified 12 different drivers of meadow area change, with coastal development and water quality as the most commonly cited. Overall, however, attributions were primarily descriptive and only 10% of studies used inferential attributions. Although ours is the most comprehensive dataset to date, it still represents only one-tenth of known global seagrass extent, with conspicuous historical and geographic biases in sampling. It therefore remains unclear whether the bioregional patterns of change documented here reflect changes in the world's unmonitored seagrass meadows. The variability in seagrass meadow trajectories, and the attribution of change to numerous drivers, suggest we urgently need to improve understanding of the causes of seagrass meadow loss if we are to improve local-scale management.

Plastic ingestion by marine fish is widespread and increasing.

Abstract: Plastic pollution has pervaded almost every facet of the biosphere, yet we lack an understanding of consumption risk by marine species at the global scale To address this, we compile data from research documenting plastic debris ingestion by marine fish, totaling 171,774 individuals of 555 species Overall, 386 marine fish species have ingested plastic debris including 210 species of commercial importance However, 148 species studied had no records of plastic consumption, suggesting that while this evolutionary trap is widespread, it is not yet universal Across all studies that accounted for microplastics, the incidence rate of plastic ingested by fish was 26% Over the last decade this incidence has doubled, increasing by 24 ± 04% per year This is driven both by increasing detection of smaller sized particles as a result of improved methodologies, as well as an increase in fish consuming plastic Further, we investigated the role of geographic, ecological, and behavioral factors in the ingestion of plastic across species These analyses revealed that the abundance of plastic in surface waters was positively correlated to plastic ingestion Demersal species are more likely to ingest plastic in shallow waters; in contrast, pelagic species were most likely to consume plastic below the mixed layer Mobile predatory species had the highest likelihood to ingest plastic; similarly, we found a positive relationship between trophic level and plastic ingestion We also find evidence that surface ingestion-deep sea egestion of microplastics by mesopelagic myctophids is likely a key mechanism for the export of microplastics from the surface ocean to the seafloor, a sink for marine debris These results elucidate the role of ecology and biogeography underlying plastic ingestion by marine fish and point toward species and regions in urgent need of study

Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic

Abstract: Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Positive but variable effects of crop diversification on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Abstract: Ecological theory suggests that biodiversity has a positive and stabilizing effect on the delivery of ecosystem services. Yet, the impacts of increasing the diversity of cultivated crop species or varieties in agroecosystems are still under scrutiny. The available empirical evidence is scattered in scope, agronomic and geographic contexts, and impacts on ecosystem services may depend on the type of diversification strategy used. To robustly assess the effects of crop diversification in agroecosystems, we compiled the results of 95 meta-analyses integrating 5156 experiments conducted over 84 experimental years and representing more than 54,500 paired observations on 120 crop species in 85 countries. Overall, our synthesis of experimental data from across the globe shows that crop diversification enhances not only crop production (median effect +14%) but also the associated biodiversity (+24%, i.e., the biodiversity of non-cultivated plants and animals), and several supporting and regulating ecosystem services including water quality (+51%), pest and disease control (+63%) and soil quality (+11%). However, there was substantial variability in the results for each individual ecosystem service between different diversification strategies such as agroforestry, intercropping, cover crops, crop rotation or variety mixtures. Agroforestry is particularly effective in delivering multiple ecosystem services, that is, water regulation and quality, pest and diseases regulation, associated biodiversity, long-term soil productivity and quality. Variety mixtures, instead, provide the lowest benefits, whereas the other strategies show intermediate results. Our results highlight that while increasing the diversity of cultivated crop species or varieties in agroecosystems represents a very promising strategy for more sustainable land management, contributing to enhanced yields, enhanced biodiversity and ecosystem services, some crop diversification strategies are more effective than others in supporting key ecosystem services.

Temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition is linked with a K-selected microbial community

Abstract: Temperature sensitivity (Q10 ) of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition is a crucial parameter to predict the fate of soil carbon (C) under global warming. Nonetheless, the response pattern of Q10 to continuous warming and the underlying mechanisms are still under debate, especially considering the complex interactions between Q10 , SOM quality, and soil microorganisms. We examined the Q10 of SOM decomposition across a mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient from -1.9 to 5.1°C in temperate mixed forest ecosystems in parallel with SOM quality and bioavailability, microbial taxonomic composition, and functional genes responsible for organic carbon decomposition. Within this temperature gradient of 7.0°C, the Q10 values increased with MAT, but decreased with SOM bioavailability. The Q10 values increased with the prevalence of K-strategy of soil microbial community, which was characterized by: (i) high ratios of oligotrophic to copiotrophic taxa, (ii) ectomycorrhizal to saprotrophic fungi, (iii) functional genes responsible for degradation of recalcitrant to that of labile C, and (iv) low average 16S rRNA operon copy number. Because the recalcitrant organic matter was mainly utilized by the K-strategists, these findings independently support the carbon quality-temperature theory from the perspective of microbial taxonomic composition and functions. A year-long incubation experiment was performed to determine the response of labile and recalcitrant C pools to warming based on the two-pool model. The decomposition of recalcitrant SOM was more sensitive to increased temperature in southern warm regions, which might attribute to the dominance of K-selected microbial communities. It implies that climate warming would mobilize the larger recalcitrant pools in warm regions, exacerbating the positive feedback between increased MAT and CO2 efflux. This is the first attempt to link temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition with microbial eco-strategies by incorporating the genetic information and disentangling the complex relationship between Q10 and soil microorganisms.

Long-term, amplified responses of soil organic carbon to nitrogen addition worldwide.

Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems and plays a critical role in mitigating climate change. Increasing reactive nitrogen (N) in ecosystems caused by anthropogenic N input substantially affects SOC dynamics. However, uncertainties remain concerning the effects of N addition on SOC in both organic and mineral soil layers over time at the global scale. Here, we analysed a large empirical data set spanning 60 years across 369 sites worldwide to explore the temporal dynamics of SOC to N addition. We found that N addition significantly increased SOC across the globe by 4.2% (2.7%-5.8%). SOC increases were amplified from short- to long-term N addition durations in both organic and mineral soil layers. The positive effects of N addition on SOC were independent of ecosystem types, mean annual temperature and precipitation. Our findings suggest that SOC increases largely resulted from the enhanced plant C input to soils coupled with reduced C loss from decomposition and amplification was associated with reduced microbial biomass and respiration under long-term N addition. Our study suggests that N addition will enhance SOC sequestration over time and contribute to future climate change mitigation.

Contrasting pathways of carbon sequestration in paddy and upland soils

Abstract: Paddy soils make up the largest anthropogenic wetlands on earth, and are characterized by a prominent potential for organic carbon (C) sequestration. By quantifying the plant- and microbial-derived C in soils across four climate zones, we identified that organic C accrual is achieved via contrasting pathways in paddy and upland soils. Paddies are 39%-127% more efficient in soil organic C (SOC) sequestration than their adjacent upland counterparts, with greater differences in warmer than cooler climates. Upland soils are more replenished by microbial-derived C, whereas paddy soils are enriched with a greater proportion of plant-derived C, because of the retarded microbial decomposition under anaerobic conditions induced by the flooding of paddies. Under both land-use types, the maximal contribution of plant residues to SOC is at intermediate mean annual temperature (15-20°C), neutral soil (pH~7.3), and low clay/sand ratio. By contrast, high temperature (~24°C), low soil pH (~5), and large clay/sand ratio are favorable for strengthening the contribution of microbial necromass. The greater contribution of microbial necromass to SOC in waterlogged paddies in warmer climates is likely due to the fast anabolism from bacteria, whereas fungi are unlikely to be involved as they are aerobic. In the scenario of land-use conversion from paddy to upland, a total of 504 Tg C may be lost as CO2 from paddy soils (0-15 cm) solely in eastern China, with 90% released from the less protected plant-derived C. Hence, preserving paddy systems and other anthropogenic wetlands and increasing their C storage through sustainable management are critical for maintaining global soil C stock and mitigating climate change.

Multiple stressors determine river ecological status at the European scale: Towards an integrated understanding of river status deterioration.

Abstract: The biota of European rivers are affected by a wide range of stressors impairing water quality and hydro-morphology. Only about 40% of Europe's rivers reach 'good ecological status', a target set by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and indicated by the biota. It is yet unknown how the different stressors in concert impact ecological status and how the relationship between stressors and status differs between river types. We linked the intensity of seven stressors to recently measured ecological status data for more than 50,000 sub-catchment units (covering almost 80% of Europe's surface area), which were distributed among 12 broad river types. Stressor data were either derived from remote sensing data (extent of urban and agricultural land use in the riparian zone) or modelled (alteration of mean annual flow and of base flow, total phosphorous load, total nitrogen load and mixture toxic pressure, a composite metric for toxic substances), while data on ecological status were taken from national statutory reporting of the second WFD River Basin Management Plans for the years 2010-2015. We used Boosted Regression Trees to link ecological status to stressor intensities. The stressors explained on average 61% of deviance in ecological status for the 12 individual river types, with all seven stressors contributing considerably to this explanation. On average, 39.4% of the deviance was explained by altered hydro-morphology (morphology: 23.2%; hydrology: 16.2%), 34.4% by nutrient enrichment and 26.2% by toxic substances. More than half of the total deviance was explained by stressor interaction, with nutrient enrichment and toxic substances interacting most frequently and strongly. Our results underline that the biota of all European river types are determined by co-occurring and interacting multiple stressors, lending support to the conclusion that fundamental management strategies at the catchment scale are required to reach the ambitious objective of good ecological status of surface waters.

Large‐scale importance of microbial carbon use efficiency and necromass to soil organic carbon

Abstract: Optimal methods for incorporating soil microbial mechanisms of carbon (C) cycling into Earth system models (ESMs) are still under debate. Specifically, whether soil microbial physiology parameters and residual materials are important to soil organic C (SOC) content is still unclear. Here, we explored the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on SOC content based on a survey of soils from 16 locations along a ~4000 km forest transect in eastern China, spanning a wide range of climate, soil conditions, and microbial communities. We found that SOC was highly correlated with soil microbial biomass C (MBC) and amino sugar (AS) concentration, an index of microbial necromass. Microbial C use efficiency (CUE) was significantly related to the variations in SOC along this national-scale transect. Furthermore, the effect of climatic and edaphic factors on SOC was mainly via their regulation on microbial physiological properties (CUE and MBC). We also found that regression models on explanation of SOC variations with microbial physiological parameters and AS performed better than the models without them. Our results provide the empirical linkages among climate, microbial characteristics, and SOC content at large scale and confirm the necessity of incorporating microbial biomass and necromass pools in ESMs under global change scenarios.

Global soil-derived ammonia emissions from agricultural nitrogen fertilizer application: A refinement based on regional and crop-specific emission factors

Abstract: Ammonia (NH3 ) emissions from fertilized soils to the atmosphere and the subsequent deposition to land surface exert adverse effects on biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycling. The region- and crop-specific emission factors (EFs) of N fertilizer for NH3 are poorly developed and therefore the global estimate of soil NH3 emissions from agricultural N fertilizer application is constrained. Here we quantified the region- and crop-specific NH3 EFs of N fertilizer by compiling data from 324 worldwide manipulative studies and focused to map the global soil NH3 emissions from agricultural N fertilizer application. Globally, the NH3 EFs averaged 12.56% and 14.12% for synthetic N fertilizer and manure, respectively. Regionally, south-eastern Asia had the highest NH3 EFs of synthetic N fertilizer (19.48%) and Europe had the lowest (6%), which might have been associated with the regional discrepancy in the form and rate of N fertilizer use and management practices in agricultural production. Global agricultural NH3 emissions from the use of synthetic N fertilizer and manure in 2014 were estimated to be 12.32 and 3.79 Tg N/year, respectively. China (4.20 Tg N/year) followed by India (2.37 Tg N/year) and America (1.05 Tg N/year) together contributed to over 60% of the total global agricultural NH3 emissions from the use of synthetic N fertilizer. For crop-specific emissions, the NH3 EFs averaged 11.13%-13.95% for the three main staple crops (i.e., maize, wheat, and rice), together accounting for 72% of synthetic N fertilizer-induced NH3 emissions from croplands in the world and 70% in China. The region- and crop-specific NH3 EFs of N fertilizer established in this study offer references to update the default EF in the IPCC Tier 1 guideline. This work also provides an insight into the spatial variation of soil-derived NH3 emissions from the use of synthetic N fertilizer in agriculture at the global and regional scales.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures.

Abstract: Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Fungal community structure and function shifts with atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

Abstract: Fungal decomposition of soil organic matter depends on soil nitrogen (N) availability. This ecosystem process is being jeopardized by changes in N inputs that have resulted from a tripling of atmospheric N deposition in the last century. Soil fungi are impacted by atmospheric N deposition due to higher N availability, as soils are acidified, or as micronutrients become increasingly limiting. Fungal communities that persist with chronic N deposition may be enriched with traits that enable them to tolerate environmental stress, which may trade-off with traits enabling organic matter decomposition. We hypothesized that fungal communities would respond to N deposition by shifting community composition and functional gene abundances toward those that tolerate stress but are weak decomposers. We sampled soils at seven eastern US hardwood forests where ambient N deposition varied from 3.2 to 12.6 kg N ha-1 year-1 , five of which also have experimental plots where atmospheric N deposition was simulated through fertilizer application treatments (25-50 kg N ha-1 year-1 ). Fungal community and functional responses to fertilizer varied across the ambient N deposition gradient. Fungal biomass and richness increased with simulated N deposition at sites with low ambient deposition and decreased at sites with high ambient deposition. Fungal functional genes involved in hydrolysis of organic matter increased with ambient N deposition while genes involved in oxidation of organic matter decreased. One of four genes involved in generalized abiotic stress tolerance increased with ambient N deposition. In summary, we found that the divergent response to simulated N deposition depended on ambient N deposition levels. Fungal biomass, richness, and oxidative enzyme potential were reduced by N deposition where ambient N deposition was high suggesting fungal communities were pushed beyond an environmental stress threshold. Fungal community structure and function responses to N enrichment depended on ambient N deposition at a regional scale.

Systemic effects of rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit on plant physiology and productivity

Abstract: Earth is currently undergoing a global increase in atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a trend which is expected to continue as climate warms. This phenomenon has been associated with productivity decreases in ecosystems and yield penalties in crops, with these losses attributed to photosynthetic limitations arising from decreased stomatal conductance. Such VPD increases, however, have occurred over decades, which raises the possibility that stomatal acclimation to VPD plays an important role in determining plant productivity under high VPD. Furthermore, evidence points to more far-ranging and complex effects of elevated VPD on plant physiology, extending to the anatomical, biochemical, and developmental levels, which could vary substantially across species. Because these complex effects are typically not considered in modeling frameworks, we conducted a quantitative literature review documenting temperature-independent VPD effects on 112 species and 59 traits and physiological variables, in order to develop an integrated and mechanistic physiological framework. We found that VPD increase reduced yield and primary productivity, an effect that was partially mediated by stomatal acclimation, and also linked with changes in leaf anatomy, nutrient, and hormonal status. The productivity decrease was also associated with negative effects on reproductive development, and changes in architecture and growth rates that could decrease the evaporative surface or minimize embolism risk. Cross-species quantitative relationships were found between levels of VPD increase and trait responses, and we found differences across plant groups, indicating that future VPD impacts will depend on community assembly and crop functional diversity. Our analysis confirms predictions arising from the hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, outlines a systemic physiological framework of plant responses to rising VPD, and provides recommendations for future research to better understand and mitigate VPD-mediated climate change effects on ecosystems and agro-systems.

Phosphorus addition decreases microbial residual contribution to soil organic carbon pool in a tropical coastal forest.

Abstract: The soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability often constrains soil carbon (C) pool, and elevated N deposition could further intensify soil P limitation, which may affect soil C cycling in these N-rich and P-poor ecosystems. Soil microbial residues may not only affect soil organic carbon (SOC) pool but also impact SOC stability through soil aggregation. However, how soil nutrient availability and aggregate fractions affect microbial residues and the microbial residue contribution to SOC is still not well understood. We took advantage of a 10-year field fertilization experiment to investigate the effects of nutrient additions, soil aggregate fractions, and their interactions on the concentrations of soil microbial residues and their contribution to SOC accumulation in a tropical coastal forest. We found that continuous P addition greatly decreased the concentrations of microbial residues and their contribution to SOC, whereas N addition had no significant effect. The P-stimulated decreases in microbial residues and their contribution to SOC were presumably due to enhanced recycling of microbial residues via increased activity of residue-decomposing enzymes. The interactive effects between soil aggregate fraction and nutrient addition were not significant, suggesting a weak role of physical protection by soil aggregates in mediating microbial responses to altered soil nutrient availability. Our data suggest that the mechanisms driving microbial residue responses to increased N and P availability might be different, and the P-induced decrease in the contribution of microbial residues might be unfavorable for the stability of SOC in N-rich and P-poor tropical forests. Such information is critical for understanding the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Abstract: Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land‐uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land‐use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Accelerated increase in vegetation carbon sequestration in China after 2010: A turning point resulting from climate and human interaction.

Abstract: China has increased its vegetation coverage and enhanced its terrestrial carbon sink through ecological restoration since the end of the 20th century. However, the temporal variation in vegetation carbon sequestration remains unclear, and the relative effects of climate change and ecological restoration efforts are under debate. By integrating remote sensing and machine learning with a modelling approach, we explored the biological and physical pathways by which both climate change and human activities (e.g., ecological restoration, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have altered Chinese terrestrial ecosystem structures and functions, including vegetation cover, surface heat fluxes, water flux, and vegetation carbon sequestration (defined by gross and net primary production, GPP and NPP). Our study indicated that during 2001-2018, GPP in China increased significantly at a rate of 49.1-53.1 TgC/yr2 , and the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to GPP gains were comparable (48%-56% and 44%-52%, respectively). Spatially, afforestation was the dominant mechanism behind forest cover expansions in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, on the Loess Plateau and in the southwest karst region, whereas climate change promoted vegetation cover in most parts of southeastern China. At the same time, the increasing trend in NPP (22.4-24.9 TgC/yr2 ) during 2001-2018 was highly attributed to human activities (71%-81%), particularly in southern, eastern, and northeastern China. Both GPP and NPP showed accelerated increases after 2010 because the anthropogenic NPP gains during 2001-2010 were generally offset by the climate-induced NPP losses in southern China. However, after 2010, the climatic influence reversed, thus highlighting the vegetation carbon sequestration that occurs with ecological restoration.

Soil multitrophic network complexity enhances the link between biodiversity and multifunctionality in agricultural systems.

Abstract: Belowground biodiversity supports multiple ecosystem functions and services that humans rely on. However, there is a dearth of studies exploring the determinants of the biodiversity-ecosystem function (BEF) relationships, particularly in intensely managed agricultural ecosystems. Here, we reported significant and positive relationships between soil biodiversity of multiple organism groups and multiple ecosystem functions in 228 agricultural fields, relating to crop yield, nutrient provisioning, element cycling, and pathogen control. The relationships were influenced by the types of organisms that soil phylotypes with larger sizes or at higher trophic levels, for example, invertebrates or protist predators, appeared to exhibit weaker or no BEF relationships when compared to those with smaller sizes or at lower trophic levels, for example, archaea, bacteria, fungi, and protist phototrophs. Particularly, we highlighted the role of soil network complexity, reflected by co-occurrence patterns among multitrophic-level organisms, in enhancing the link between soil biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Our results represent a significant advance in forecasting the impacts of belowground multitrophic organisms on ecosystem functions in agricultural systems, and suggest that soil multitrophic network complexity should be considered a key factor in enhancing ecosystem productivity and sustainability under land-use intensification.

Meta-analysis of yield and nitrous oxide outcomes for nitrogen management in agriculture.

Abstract: Improved nitrogen (N) use is key to future food security and environmental sustainability While many regions still experience N shortages, agriculture is the leading global emitter of N2 O due to losses exacerbated by N surpluses in other regions In order to sustainably maintain or increase food production, farmers and their advisors need a comprehensive and actionable understanding of how nutrient management affects both yield and N2 O emissions, particularly in tropical and subtropical agroecosystems We performed a meta-analysis to determine the effect of N management and other factors on N2 O emissions, plant N uptake, and yield Our analysis demonstrates that performance indicators-partial N balance and partial factor productivity-predicted N2 O emissions as well as or better than N rate While we observed consistent production and environmental benefits with enhanced-efficiency fertilizers, we noted potential trade-offs between yield and N2 O emissions for fertilizer placement Furthermore, we observed confounding effects due to management dynamics that co-vary with nutrient application practices, thus challenging the interpretation of the effect of specific practices such as fertilization frequency Therefore, rather than providing universally prescriptive management for N2 O emission reduction, our evidence supports mitigation strategies based upon tailored nutrient management approaches that keep N balances within safe limits, so as to minimize N2 O emissions while still achieving high crop yields The limited evidence available suggests that these relationships hold for temperate, tropical, and subtropical regions, but given the potential for expansion of N use in crop production, further N2 O data collection should be prioritized in under-represented regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa

Patterns and drivers of global gross nitrogen mineralization in soils.

Abstract: Soil gross nitrogen (N) mineralization (GNM), a key microbial process in the global N cycle, is mainly controlled by climate and soil properties. This study provides for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the role of soil physicochemical properties and climate and their interactions with soil microbial biomass (MB) in controlling GNM globally. Through a meta-analysis of 970 observations from 337 published papers from various ecosystems, we found that GNM was positively correlated with MB, total carbon, total N and precipitation, and negatively correlated with bulk density (BD) and soil pH. Our multivariate analysis and structural equation modeling revealed that GNM is driven by MB and dominantly influenced by BD and precipitation. The higher total N accelerates GNM via increasing MB. The decrease in BD stimulates GNM via increasing total N and MB, whereas higher precipitation stimulates GNM via increasing total N. Moreover, the GNM varies with ecosystem type, being greater in forests and grasslands with high total carbon and MB contents and low BD and pH compared to croplands. The highest GNM was observed in tropical wet soils that receive high precipitation, which increases the supply of soil substrate (total N) to microbes. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic activities that affect soil microbial population size, BD, soil substrate availability, or soil pH may interact with changes in precipitation regime and land use to influence GNM, which may ultimately affect ecosystem productivity and N loss to the environment.

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Abstract: Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

Microplastics in terrestrial ecosystems: moving beyond the state of the art to minimize the risk of ecological surprise

Abstract: Microplastic (plastic particles measuring <5mm) pollution is ubiquitous. Unlike in other well-studied ecosystems, for example, marine and freshwater environments, microplastics in terrestrial systems are relatively understudied. Their potential impacts on terrestrial environments, in particular the risk of causing ecological surprise, must be better understood and quantified. Ecological surprise occurs when ecosystem behavior deviates radically from expectations and generally has negative consequences for ecosystem services. The properties and behavior of microplastics within terrestrial environments may increase their likelihood of causing ecological surprises as they (a) are highly persistent global pollutants that will last for centuries, (b) can interact with the abiotic environment in a complex manner, (c) can impact terrestrial organisms directly or indirectly and (d) interact with other contaminants and can facilitate their transport. Here, we compiled findings of previous research on microplastics in terrestrial environments. We systematically focused on studies addressing different facets of microplastics related to their distribution, dispersion, impact on soil characteristics and functions, levels of biological organization of tested terrestrial biota (single species vs. assemblages), scale of experimental study and corresponding ecotoxicological effects. Our systematic assessment of previous microplastic research revealed that most studies have been conducted on single species under laboratory conditions with short-term exposures; few studies were conducted under more realistic long-term field conditions and/or with multi-species assemblages. Studies targeting multi-species assemblages primarily considered soil bacterial communities and showed that microplastics can alter essential nutrient cycling functions. More ecologically meaningful studies of terrestrial microplastics encompassing multi-species assemblages, critical ecological processes (e.g., biogeochemical cycles and pollination) and interactions with other anthropogenic stressors must be conducted. Addressing these knowledge gaps will provide a better understanding of microplastics as emerging global stressors and should lower the risk of ecological surprise in terrestrial ecosystems.

Overview of global status of plastic presence in marine vertebrates

Abstract: The presence of plastic in the environment is generating impacts on all habitats and has become a major global problem in marine megafauna. Macroplastics can cause entanglement, ingestion and loss of suitable habitats. In addition to entanglement problems, there is evidence that plastics are entering the food web through ingestion by marine organisms, which could ultimately be affecting humans. Much of the available information on the impact of plastic in biota is scattered and disconnected due to the use of different methodologies. Here, we review the variety of approaches and protocols followed to assess macro- and microplastic ingestion in marine vertebrates such as sea turtles, cetaceans and fishes in order to offer a global overview of their current status. The analysis of 112 studies indicates the highest plastic ingestion in organisms collected in the Mediterranean and Northeast Indian Ocean with significant differences among plastic types ingested by different groups of animals, including differences in colour and the type of prevalent polymers. In sea turtles, the most prevalent types of plastics are white plastics (66.60%), fibres (54.54%) and LDPE polymer (39.09%); in cetaceans, white macro- and microplastics (38.31%), fibres (79.95%) and PA polymer (49.60%); and in fishes, transparent plastics (45.97%), fibres (66.71%) and polyester polymer (36.20%). Overall, clear fibre microplastics are likely the most predominant types ingested by marine megafauna around the globe.

Land-based measures to mitigate climate change: Potential and feasibility by country.

Abstract: Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom-up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land-based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.